Topic: To what level will Bitcoin fall after reaching $100K (or higher)? - page 3. (Read 1066 times)

Well speculated and I think you are making a point here. How low we are going to drop can not be accurately predicted by anybody and if someone gets the prediction correctly, they would have done that by luck because I believe nobody can predict the bottom or the top of the market. My prediction is that, how the market is going to fall will be determined by how high we reach. If we exceed $100,000 and get to $150,000 or $200,000, we should get ready for a massive drop that might get to 90% or higher but if we barely pass $100,000 then we should not expect the market to correct that much. I also think the market is getting more matured and the investors now in the market are more experienced as institutional investors are becoming a big part of the market and they do not just sell as they are known for hodling for long.

No one on planet Earth can predict the price of bitcoin correctly, so it will be difficult for anyone to know or predict the price bitcoin will fall to after the bull market ends. When bitcoin set a new all-time high in the 2021 bull run, and after the bull run ended, bitcoin dumped to $16k during the bear market, which no one expected bitcoin would dump to that price. So judging from the past performance of bitcoin after the bull run, bitcoin will likely dip to $50k-$40k, but if bitcoin fails to achieve the six digits next year, it will dip below more than $40k in the bear market.

There are more of bitcoin enthusiasts now comparing to 2018-2022. Definitely bitcoin price will drop after this circles ATH but if we get to make some figures, we would see that there are investors with more risk bearing and longer holders now that  the past so even if there is going to be falls on bitcoin after ATH, the margin is not going to be as weak as the 2018-2022.
So If should make a guess, I will go on $60,000 which the value of bitcoin has been struggling to crossover in the few past months after the $73,000 current ATH. So I think that would e a base value for bitcoin drop after $100,000 +.

We can't really know this, can we? Bitcoin is as unpredictable as they come and all we can do is speculate.
Since Bitcoin rose from $16k and got up to $60k, I don't think it has gone lower than half of that price (30k). I understand that we're in a bullish period and BTC will hardly drops very low in times like this, but I don't think bitcoin will drop as low as it did when it went from 67k to 16k.
I believe this because like I said in one of my previous posts, people have more trust in Bitcoin now. They don't panic sell at the slightest hiccup. Now, more people understand that to make a profit from bitcoin, you have to hold it for a long term and people are actually doing that.

So if Bitcoin actually gets to $100k, it will further increase the trust people have for it. That will mean not many people will sell out of FUD anymore like they used to. With this, I don't think the price will drop below $50k, except something very extreme happens to the world or global economy.

Due that unpredictabilty then people or the community would really be having that kind of approach on which they would really be that normally be throwing out different numbers on where Bitcoins price could possibly
be able to reach out. Assuming that it had been able to done before with those previous cycles so it will really be just that normal that they will really be that guessing out with those higher numbers or ATH prices on which its normal. Some would be realistic and there are some which is really that too far off. It will really be just that depending on how you would really be doing up your steps on utilizing on accumulating more coins
which we arent that still yet. Each investor would be having their own ways on how they would be growing out their portfolio.

Speaking about corrections or huge decrease in price then it will really be just that normal on a market. We cant call it a market in the first place if it doesnt have that rise and fall kind of behavior.
It will really be just that something that you will really be needing up realize in the first place so that you wont be finding yourself to be that desperate. So its a normal approach on this aspect
and be realistic at least so that you would be that out to frustration and disappointment.

No one exactly knows the price of bitcoin by the end of this bull cycle but for sure it will be a lot higher than 100,000$ per bitcoinBTC. If we remember in the last cycle, we crossed the physiological 50K level with ease, this time too the momentum will be very high when the bitcoin surpass this level and it will just break the media, the fomo comming in and we can reach anywhere between 130K to 170K.

I know this range is very wide but here again the bitcoin will either fail to break 150K or if it break 150K will head straight to 160K+. These numbers seem difficult when we see the current price action, but we should be prepared for extreme volatility toward the upside again in this bull cycle.

We haven't reached $100k price per Bitcoin before, and that is to say we are entering into price discovery zone for Bitcoin, no one can tell the exact level that Bitcoin would fall, if it will get to 100k and fall or break above $100k , and even can also not reach $100k or the  ATH that Bitcoin would attain this bull market cycle. The best tool to use to check this will be the fibonnacci retracement tool , while targeting a price pull back of 50% fibbo retracement level @ 0.5,  0.618 fibonnacci golden pocket and 0.786, these are level to watch out for that price would pull back into after it hits 100k or not , or even break above.

I agree with you on this and anyone coming into Bitcoin should at least have this kind of mindset towards Bitcoin even though we can not completely rely on historical events as being a guarantee for the future. However, Bitcoin has really proven beyond every reasonable doubt to be one of it kind overcome lots of negativity, increasing wider spread adoption and increments in value, but yeah preparing for the worst and the best is kind of a good advice too as regards to making an informed decisions towards in investment which is also very paramount.

I feel like that you are considering the fall history to repat but ignoring same for rising market.

I mean bitcoin grew approximately 20 times in 2017 and 3 times in 2021 from the previous ATH level. So, first we need to estimate about what would be the new ATH by end of upcoming bullish market and then we need to prepare for downmarket which might be up to 80% of new ATH.

The low growth happened in 2021 was reasoned with pandemic consequences. This means we may again expect another 10x growth for the current bullish cycle. This lead to expect up to $700k level by end of 2025.

For supporting $700k level for this cycle, we need to consider the following:
1. Bitcoin ETF.
2. World wide most stock markets are trading at stretched levels.
3. Central banks are cutting base points.
4. The current halving reward is more than 10x lower than the initial reward.
5. Like microstrategy and El Salvador, more to adapt bitcoin when BTC tests 100k (a psychological level).

and then more importantly right now we do not have lockdown or slow economic growth. So, we can expect bitcoin to have another 10x growth in 2025 bullish trend.

Finally, I expect bitcoin to test $1M level by December 2025 and then may fall up to 50% by end of 2026. Due to more adaption rate, people will not let bitcoin to fall up to 80% which happened in all previous bitcoin's 4 year cycles after a new ATH.

Well, based on the current market situation and its price relative to the all-time low, although we still can't pinpoint how far it will go, I also can't imagine it reaching $40k. Having seen the price stay long at $50k and above, I was confident that it wouldn't roll back down, especially in the earlier years. And why? This is because the majority of investors today know how to control themselves, and we can say that they are positive and have trust, which is why we rarely see panic selling. What we are seeing now, and I believe many others are feeling as well, is the gradual change in market trends, which is most likely leaning more towards the positive side rather than the negative it has shown. Here we can say that we have a high level of understanding, which allows us to remain calm and not easily affected by negative things.

I believe price falling to $20k will be harder, bitcoin is now exposed to bigger capital than ever including spot ETF now even option is on the process, added with crypto being hot topic right now around the world, $20k is a no brainer buy for me, i'd put my entire wealth to BTC again to reposition if that happen.

I mean, i believe if there's any bearish market coming up in the future it will hit the market hard, but I think the bottom floor price will just be around $49k since it's lowest price for this bullrun, maybe there will be a moment when BTC going lower than that but it's just hard to imagine BTC retouching $20k again. heck even BTC at $49k already have such strong demand zone that the price bounced back to $60k instantly.

well last drop was say 69 to 16
drop before was 20 to 4
drop before was 1.3 to 1

so 75-80-92 percent last three crashes.

maybe we do 70 percent

so 100 k would be 30k
110k would be 37k
120k would be 44k
130k would be 51k

140k would be 58k
150k would be 65k
160k would be 72k

i bolded my best guess for high and low

I thought the last low could have been 10k if it were really bad because we had spent so much time near that round number, just like 100k people imagine significance in a larger amount of zeros at the end.   I wont say the exact number but all you have to recognize is that 16k was actually a bullish low because way back when it would have been a high number yet now it was the bitter end of a sell off hence bullish.

Iam sure next gloom and doom sell off we see a similar kind of low that is also secretly a positive.  You could predict the low off that likely repeat, where could a low be and still be a positive; I guess 50k maybe would be one heck of a high mark for the most negative take given.
   This could be more easily seen if moving to very large time frames, Japanese candlesticks with a monthly bar or quarter or 1 year each price point.

For now we have gone beyond that stage and level that Bitcoin can ever drop down to below 20k and possibility that we may see a price above 100k in the next all time high Bitcoin price is high also, so for sure what we can make out from all of this is that.

1: Bitcoin have gone beyond the level of dropping down to any amount below 50k and if that be the case, then the minimum correction price for now will still be around 60k and above and with minimum volitilities.

2: the possibility that we may likely get another all time market Price before the year 2024 runs out will and is also there so we have to take note of that also.

Data from bitcoin's past trading history may help speculators about where the highest point is and where the lowest point is after the next ATH. The problem is, all of this data is only data that is not fully reliable for the future, I mean everything is still uncertain. The percentage of bitcoin's price decline after the November 2021 ATH was -77% more (CMIIW), so the range of decline will not be far from that number if we refer to past history.

So if bitcoin hits $100k in its next ATH, then it could be that the lowest price will be in the range of $20k to $25k. But again, this is just unreliable speculation because anything can still be different following the rapid growth of interest in bitcoin.

It is difficult to determine when it can fall if we do not know exactly what its ATH will be, if we knew that it could go up to about $50k we could talk about about $70-$80k that it could go down and that would be the limit to which it could fall, of course all that is speculation, it is not that I am going to regret it, I am just assuming a scenario that is possible, probable but not certain, it all depends on how high its next ATH reaches, which are usually very good, in BTC every ATH is very juicy and many of us love it, it always surprises us, so with BTC it is always good to be surprised.

I also support that scenario, things have completely changed since bitcoin ETFs were approved and many large institutional investors entered the market. This means that bitcoin volatility will also decrease and I don't think we will see or have the opportunity to buy cheap bitcoin after each bull cycle ends.

We don't even know where the top of this cycle is yet so it's hard to predict the bottom but I also believe it's unlikely bitcoin will drop more than 50% like previous bear cycles. Bitcoin will definitely become more stable and less volatile.

I can not imagine what will happen if the price reach the bottom in $20k. People must take care their emotion to see that price and hold on tight their Bitcoin. But if they can think much about that, that situation is a very good situation because they can buy back Bitcoin without selling their Bitcoin.

At $20k-$26k, they can have a chance to accumulate many Bitcoin amount especially for people who have much money. They will not want to miss that time to buy Bitcoin at that price level. The bottom price may soon coming so we must prepare with our money to buy back.

We already saw the highest price of Bitcoin so far is at $73k and now the price down to $56k-$58k ( the price now ). If the correction coming again, that can push the price to go down and maybe that will be at $50k-$51k or even worst the price will be at $49k. Hold on tight guys.

any price mark is always possible in bearish but personally since institutional investors are buying at around price of $50k then I highly doubt it will dump that low.
unless something like blackrock also dumping at the ATH, the price won't go down that low but I've heard many of this institutional investors are saying BTC will reach 1 million I guess that's the price point where they really gonna sell their stacks.

regardless if ever price hits that low, it will be great opportunity to setup for the next bullish (if any) because that price is simply too low in my opinion.
even BTC at around $30k-$40k already have so much liquidity waiting to catch BTC at some point.

the price of sub $30k i think can only happen at the deepest dump ever in the next bearish cycle.

No one can give precise answer to this most especially that we are not yet in the $100k btc price. But even so, knowing it will still be happening soon, let me tell you my own guess. Just believe me when I say, regardless of its current price, the chances to fall on $20k is still highly possible. It's not actually on how high the current price is, but it's more on how heavy or deep the impact of its price down fall. The most important thing here is price recovery is also highly possible after a drastic price drop.