In my mind, there is only two ways to get into mining with (kinda) profit.
1: Be first in line for a next generation asic preorder (like Avalon Batch1 was)
2: Mine scrypt with GPU`s with the intention of heating your house.
Topic: Today, ROI(Return Over Investment) is an unobtainable myth... - page 2. (Read 5160 times)
September 21, 2013, 03:28:05 AM
September 21, 2013, 02:21:35 AM
And also if you believe btc price will go lower , send me as many btc as you want and I will give you the dollar wise version of it in a year, that way if bitcoin lowers , you will still have the same amount of dollars as you had with nothing lost during bitcoin price drop
September 21, 2013, 02:18:59 AM
that logic has been debunked so often... Send me 1 BTC and in a year I will send you 0.9 BTC back. If BTC price doubles you will make a killer profit.. Thats essentially what a miner does, only my deal is better and you dont even have to wait a year, I will send you your "profit" immediately !
And if you want to buy with fiat , Im willing to accept fiat and send you 0.9 * exchange rate in BTC. No need to wait 6-12 months.
if you expect BTC to rise, buy btc.
And if you want to buy with fiat , Im willing to accept fiat and send you 0.9 * exchange rate in BTC. No need to wait 6-12 months.
if you expect BTC to rise, buy btc.
September 20, 2013, 10:42:42 PM
That all depends.
If you're talking about BtcIn -> BtcOut, you might have a hard time. The numbers for mining the same amount of BTC that you used to purchase a piece of hardware are looking more and more bleak unless you're looking at hardware that can do hundreds if not thousands of GH/s, with good power efficiency, at a cheap price, and can be delivered quickly. The best solution here is to look at the long-term plan (which I've always said any serious miner should be doing), and see what method gets you the most amount of BTC in the future. Buying BTC isn't a viable option, IMO, because the amount of BTC you hold is constant. Mining may net you the most profit right now, but if you run a BitFury miner until it no longer covers it's own electricity costs, how many BTC will you have mined? I'd be willing to be it's more than if you had bought BTC and held.
If you're talking about UsdIn -> UsdOut, that's a whole other ball game. The increase in price has more than compensated many Avalon or BFL pre-orders. I know I've already reached ROI for my early orders and then some, and I expect to do so with any future orders (including the late BFL order that was shipped yesterday). In fact, the USD numbers have lead to my BTC mining being quite profitable. And I'm not done yet, so we'll see how many BTC I can squeeze of of them over the next 4-5 years.
IMO, the key to either is power efficiency. That's why KNC or BitFury miners are so desired, and why ASICMiner and Avalon based miners are almost considered ancient at this point - they have about 6 months of life left in them (tops) before they're no longer worth the electricity it takes to run them.
Just my drunken 0.02BTC.
┌∩┐(-_-)┌∩┐
If you're talking about BtcIn -> BtcOut, you might have a hard time. The numbers for mining the same amount of BTC that you used to purchase a piece of hardware are looking more and more bleak unless you're looking at hardware that can do hundreds if not thousands of GH/s, with good power efficiency, at a cheap price, and can be delivered quickly. The best solution here is to look at the long-term plan (which I've always said any serious miner should be doing), and see what method gets you the most amount of BTC in the future. Buying BTC isn't a viable option, IMO, because the amount of BTC you hold is constant. Mining may net you the most profit right now, but if you run a BitFury miner until it no longer covers it's own electricity costs, how many BTC will you have mined? I'd be willing to be it's more than if you had bought BTC and held.
If you're talking about UsdIn -> UsdOut, that's a whole other ball game. The increase in price has more than compensated many Avalon or BFL pre-orders. I know I've already reached ROI for my early orders and then some, and I expect to do so with any future orders (including the late BFL order that was shipped yesterday). In fact, the USD numbers have lead to my BTC mining being quite profitable. And I'm not done yet, so we'll see how many BTC I can squeeze of of them over the next 4-5 years.
IMO, the key to either is power efficiency. That's why KNC or BitFury miners are so desired, and why ASICMiner and Avalon based miners are almost considered ancient at this point - they have about 6 months of life left in them (tops) before they're no longer worth the electricity it takes to run them.
Just my drunken 0.02BTC.
┌∩┐(-_-)┌∩┐
September 20, 2013, 02:19:21 PM
Do you really think people are going to keep buying ehen the difficulty is 4 or 5 times higher?
Yes they will. Because you ask the wrong question. The correct question is: how much will a terrahash still cost once difficulty is 4 or 5x higher? Answer: ~4-5x lower than today.
Your next question should be: how low can the cost per GH go? Answer:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/finally-a-correct-endgame-difficulty-calculator-295270
September 20, 2013, 01:58:13 PM
From watching the estimated hardware incoming by the different manufacturers, it looks like 16 petahashes are incoming by March 2014. Except, two things I see wrong are:
No company had released according to schedule (to my knowledge)
And people are already saying "mining is dead, don't buy hardware." Do you really think people are going to keep buying ehen the difficulty is 4 or 5 times higher? I dont see it getting 16x higher, unless some new, unannounced awesome miners appear before then.
Anyways, with that knowledge I played with some difficulty counters, and changed values until the difficulty growth matched the estimated March difficulty (1.8 billion). Once i was there, I lowered the difficulty jumps to 5-10% (just like it was when graphics cards were stable) and ran it till next sept. I tried this at 100% difficulty by march, 75% and 50%, and got between 75-90% ROI on my block eruptor farm. But again, I see that as a worst case scenario, I don't believe the difficulty will get that high.
So, I believe in ROI.
No company had released according to schedule (to my knowledge)
And people are already saying "mining is dead, don't buy hardware." Do you really think people are going to keep buying ehen the difficulty is 4 or 5 times higher? I dont see it getting 16x higher, unless some new, unannounced awesome miners appear before then.
Anyways, with that knowledge I played with some difficulty counters, and changed values until the difficulty growth matched the estimated March difficulty (1.8 billion). Once i was there, I lowered the difficulty jumps to 5-10% (just like it was when graphics cards were stable) and ran it till next sept. I tried this at 100% difficulty by march, 75% and 50%, and got between 75-90% ROI on my block eruptor farm. But again, I see that as a worst case scenario, I don't believe the difficulty will get that high.
So, I believe in ROI.
September 20, 2013, 01:23:58 PM
When it comes to Bitcoin mining, ROI ( Return On Investment ) is an unobtainable myth. Please note, That when i refer to ROI I'm referring to any amount over and above your initial investment. The simple truth is that if the mining hardware was cheaper so as to appear to give a reasonable ROI, the demand for the hardware would be so high that if fulfilled it would push the Dificulty up so fast that the anticipated ROI would just disappear.
As has been said many times, the manufacturers can see a return on their investment. People who get the fastest new hardware first might see some return provided that the supply of that equipment is quite limited. Even then it won't take long for their lead to disolve.
This is all because there is a concerted effort to control the number of bitcoins made at any given time. If your new equipment is fast enough, it can work outside those rules for a time until the difficulty compensates. We are all fighting to get our own share of a finite number of bitcoins and the only way to increase our share is to decrease everyone elses. Of course, they then try and increase their share with new equipment to our detriment. Eventually, the amount of resources that any given miner can throw at this will become depleted and their share of the pie will shrink and they will have to accept it.
As has been said many times, the manufacturers can see a return on their investment. People who get the fastest new hardware first might see some return provided that the supply of that equipment is quite limited. Even then it won't take long for their lead to disolve.
This is all because there is a concerted effort to control the number of bitcoins made at any given time. If your new equipment is fast enough, it can work outside those rules for a time until the difficulty compensates. We are all fighting to get our own share of a finite number of bitcoins and the only way to increase our share is to decrease everyone elses. Of course, they then try and increase their share with new equipment to our detriment. Eventually, the amount of resources that any given miner can throw at this will become depleted and their share of the pie will shrink and they will have to accept it.
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