Topic: Today was an excellent opportunity for an "Exit Drill" (Read 4874 times)
Exit Drills can be a really bad idea. The whole notion of investing well lies in a very simple principal: buy low sell high. Panic selling when things are dropping is not a good plan.
Its also possible to work out when its going to crash, because nothing should double in value within days - that is just stupid!
When it does that, you need to sell a little of your investment so that you get some profit.
Within a week or so, it will drop in value by about 30%, and that price will almost be stable and will last for a month or two, before it all starts to go nuts again.
When it does that, you need to sell a little of your investment so that you get some profit.
Within a week or so, it will drop in value by about 30%, and that price will almost be stable and will last for a month or two, before it all starts to go nuts again.
This run-up started at around $70. This entire time people predicted adjustments (why I stay away from the speculation board). Many predicted a far greater run up than occurred-- some predictions topping $3,000.
The catalyst this time around was the Chinese news, and nobody could have predicted that.
Your broad statement "Within a week or so, it will drop in value by about 30%" is completely unsupported by history. In fact, if you followed your advice you would have sold around $650-- or hell, $350 or less.
I'm sure there is money to be made in trading-- but even including this weekend's adjustment, Bitcoin is up 705% in the last 6 months. Simplistic "sell when it goes up" strategies don't apply.
I agree completely with your last piece of advice.
I honestly don't get the weirdos who freak out any time someone suggests (rightly or wrongly) that the price is about to correct, as if they're attacking Bitcoin itself. Get over it, people. It goes up and down. People will discuss that.
People will also profit by predicting the dips and booms correctly. Laugh at them if they lose, if you're into schadenfreude. Cheer them if they win, because they deserved to. But don't act like someone just shot your goddamn dog because they speculate.
People will also profit by predicting the dips and booms correctly. Laugh at them if they lose, if you're into schadenfreude. Cheer them if they win, because they deserved to. But don't act like someone just shot your goddamn dog because they speculate.
Your Ad Hominem attack is deplorable. IMO the OP was clearly trying to coordinate, or at least influence, a mass sell-off by giving newbies in the General forum bad advice. The price doesn't magically change all by itself, it's these "wolves in sheep's clothing" trying to pull strings. Had this thread been in the Speculation sub-forum where it belongs, it would've been laughed out of town. Hang your head in shame for letting yourself be blinded by greed.
Woohooo
am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!
am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!
Congratulations on taking money from anyone who actually listened to your "helpful advice".
Wow
I too am a "newbie" to bitcoin so appreciate that you have considered me a seasoned professional.
If you had taken the time to actually read the entire thread then you would have realised that all I was initially tryng to point out was that should one wish to Buy/sell that they should make sure that all of their systems were functioning as expected, I had problems with some of mine which I am glad I got rectified through my "Drill" or else I would not have been able to execute the trades that I did in a timely manor.
I was not instructing or telling anyone to sell I was mealy sharing my experience so please get your facts correct before you make these kinds of accusations.
blablahblah I did say sorry for upsetting you earlier in this thread but you continue to insult me !!
Also with regards to this comment you made "IMO the OP was clearly trying to coordinate, or at least influence, a mass sell-off by giving newbies in the General forum bad advice." The Chinese did that all by themselves, I wish I was that powerful.
Thought I would add some free advice, based on my first crash experience.
First point is that bitcoin is going to crash on a regular basis, so don't panic.
Its also possible to work out when its going to crash, because nothing should double in value within days - that is just stupid!
When it does that, you need to sell a little of your investment so that you get some profit.
Within a week or so, it will drop in value by about 30%, and that price will almost be stable and will last for a month or two, before it all starts to go nuts again.
The point is that in the medium term, the next 36 months or so, the price is just going up.
On a daily basis, it goes up and down like a yoyo. That is stressful, especially if you borrowed money to invest.
Don't check the prices daily! ;-)
First point is that bitcoin is going to crash on a regular basis, so don't panic.
Its also possible to work out when its going to crash, because nothing should double in value within days - that is just stupid!
When it does that, you need to sell a little of your investment so that you get some profit.
Within a week or so, it will drop in value by about 30%, and that price will almost be stable and will last for a month or two, before it all starts to go nuts again.
The point is that in the medium term, the next 36 months or so, the price is just going up.
On a daily basis, it goes up and down like a yoyo. That is stressful, especially if you borrowed money to invest.
Don't check the prices daily! ;-)
I honestly don't get the weirdos who freak out any time someone suggests (rightly or wrongly) that the price is about to correct, as if they're attacking Bitcoin itself. Get over it, people. It goes up and down. People will discuss that.
People will also profit by predicting the dips and booms correctly. Laugh at them if they lose, if you're into schadenfreude. Cheer them if they win, because they deserved to. But don't act like someone just shot your goddamn dog because they speculate.
People will also profit by predicting the dips and booms correctly. Laugh at them if they lose, if you're into schadenfreude. Cheer them if they win, because they deserved to. But don't act like someone just shot your goddamn dog because they speculate.
Woohooo
am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!
am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!
Well done, man!
That flaming was indeed not justified. I think people just thought you were panicking.
The title of the post used the words "Exit Drill." Of course people thought it was a panic.
Congrats on winning this round (no sarcasm). But be careful-- I can point to a dozen other examples in which the price dipped by the same amount and then rebounded-- where you would have lost your Bitcoin.
Consider reading up on hindsight bias:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias
As jzcjca00 pointed out, this investment strategy is horrible. The fact that one wins a slot machine on their first try does not change the fact that slot machines take more money than they give.
Well, that's true, OP gave with his title and his OP the impression that this was about a permanent exit of the market. He should have expressed himself better.
However, there is nothing wrong with going on short term speculation in BTC. It's a lot riskier, no doubt, but can also bring you higher gains. I stay away from it for several reasons, for me it's just buy and hold, but if somebody wants to go high risk/high reward and play the game that way, I'm not the one to condemn him.
Woohooo
am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!
am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!
Well done, man!
That flaming was indeed not justified. I think people just thought you were panicking.
The title of the post used the words "Exit Drill." Of course people thought it was a panic.
Congrats on winning this round (no sarcasm). But be careful-- I can point to a dozen other examples in which the price dipped by the same amount and then rebounded-- where you would have lost your Bitcoin.
Consider reading up on hindsight bias:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias
As jzcjca00 pointed out, this investment strategy is horrible. The fact that one wins a slot machine on their first try does not change the fact that slot machines take more money than they give.
Good for you. Honestly I mean it, I'm glad you won this time.
Just be careful, I have seen enough people caught in bear traps to know that this is generally the less common outcome.
Just be careful, I have seen enough people caught in bear traps to know that this is generally the less common outcome.
Woohooo
am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!
am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!
Well done, man!
That flaming was indeed not justified. I think people just thought you were panicking.
Woohooo
am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!
am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!
Hate to say this guys but I am so glad that I did my "exit drill" that I got flamed so heavily for 2 days ago.
I now have options !!!
I sold out at my predetermined sell point as I described and am now ready to get back in again at any time but now I will have nearly twice the amount of coins that I had with the same amount of capital investment or I can just walk away.
I now have options !!!
I sold out at my predetermined sell point as I described and am now ready to get back in again at any time but now I will have nearly twice the amount of coins that I had with the same amount of capital investment or I can just walk away.
no I did not actually sell as the price fall stopped just short of my sell point so I still have all of my BTC.
Damn. Was hoping another weak individual would drop off, thereby making my coins even more valuable.All my new investor friends were freaking out yesterday. I simply told them they need to cash out completely because this is not for them.
Tired of hearing the paranoia.
Quote
I need to print that on a T shirt so I can point to it every time people ask what my exit strategy is.
There needs to be a T shirt that says "Balls of Steel" with the Bitcoin logo next to it. For those of us who held on ..
For the benefit of OP:
Now that we seem to be dropping, here's a tip - You don't sell for $850 what you previously were unwilling to sell for over $1000. If you were unwilling to sell for $1000+, you should jump at the opportunity to buy at $850. Or wait, and see if it goes any lower. Point is, you can't predict where the bottom will be, so if you sell hoping to buy lower, and it turns around again, you end up buying back at a higher price and therefore you lose money.
If you believe that BTC will trade at $1000+ at some point in the future, there's no need to worry about a little dip back to $500 or so.
Now that we seem to be dropping, here's a tip - You don't sell for $850 what you previously were unwilling to sell for over $1000. If you were unwilling to sell for $1000+, you should jump at the opportunity to buy at $850. Or wait, and see if it goes any lower. Point is, you can't predict where the bottom will be, so if you sell hoping to buy lower, and it turns around again, you end up buying back at a higher price and therefore you lose money.
If you believe that BTC will trade at $1000+ at some point in the future, there's no need to worry about a little dip back to $500 or so.
I don't mind people cashing out now the more rare people with 10-100 btc gets. The more 1 btc gets worth. The more money we will earn at the end. As a believer I am not thinking about dumping any bitcoins the next few years until it gets super high. 100k would by nice but let we first go trough the 10k you know.
I think it will keep hang around gold price but it might by nothing to do with it. I still connect deffcuilty/bitcoin price. So the harder it gets to farm bitcoins and the investment needed to get bitcoins. Bitcoins get more worth because they get more rare to create.
But also buzz and people wanting bitcoins cause price to go up to of course.
Prices over 10k$+ I see pretty much possible next year.
I think it will keep hang around gold price but it might by nothing to do with it. I still connect deffcuilty/bitcoin price. So the harder it gets to farm bitcoins and the investment needed to get bitcoins. Bitcoins get more worth because they get more rare to create.
But also buzz and people wanting bitcoins cause price to go up to of course.
Prices over 10k$+ I see pretty much possible next year.
Bitcoin is my exit plan.
This is fantastic.
I need to print that on a T shirt so I can point to it every time people ask what my exit strategy is.
http://www.spreadshirt.nl/plan-bitcoin-poloshirts-C4408A24440093
Bitcoin is my exit plan.
This is fantastic.
I need to print that on a T shirt so I can point to it every time people ask what my exit strategy is.
Guys lighten up on the OP.
Many people are coming to Bitcoin to make what they believe will be a good investment with high profits. But once they learn about what Bitcoin offers the world, they may come around to the 'Bitcoin is my Exit' way of thinking.
It still doesnt mean that shouldn't cash out on the way up and mitigate some of the investment risk. The growth of Bitcoin is suceeding because the goals of bitcoin and personal desire for wealth, coincide. They are not mutually exclusive.
But cashing out in a panic is probably not the best way to do it. Cold,calm and calculated is best when it comes to money.
Many people are coming to Bitcoin to make what they believe will be a good investment with high profits. But once they learn about what Bitcoin offers the world, they may come around to the 'Bitcoin is my Exit' way of thinking.
It still doesnt mean that shouldn't cash out on the way up and mitigate some of the investment risk. The growth of Bitcoin is suceeding because the goals of bitcoin and personal desire for wealth, coincide. They are not mutually exclusive.
But cashing out in a panic is probably not the best way to do it. Cold,calm and calculated is best when it comes to money.
OP is the perfect example of how NOT to do it.
Jump to: