Topic: Today was an excellent opportunity for an "Exit Drill" - page 2. (Read 4865 times)

Should the worst happen, c'est la vie. I don't need a bloody exit plan. "Invest more in bitcoin than you can afford to lose!" said no one ever.

The fact that you would consider a 10% dip in Bitcoin's price warranting of an "exit drill" is silly. Are you new here? This is a weekly occurrence...

If the price shoots up, perhaps that is a sign to sell (if the market dept and other indicators point to this), before buying back at a lower level. Most people who try this lose money, and would be better off holding on to their Bitcoins.

But why the hell would you sell if the price dips? That's a buying opportunity. Bitcoin is volatile, and people without balls who think they can "trade" their way to riches end up losing money.

(This goes without mentioning trade lag.) I bought and forgot, my friend bought, traded, and sold. Guess who did better?

This thread is an example for utterly ill-guided behaviour.

When engaged in a thing like bitcoin, never ever react on short term happenings!

Moreover, if you want to be an investor, then react on the trend not on absolute value limits.


There is outright never the need to have an "exit drill", since behaving this way is unprofessional. Instead of conjuring up exit drill plans, you should use your brain to get a judgement of risk. Holding any monetary position always bears some risk -- but responsible persons try to get their personal judgement of risks ahead of the happenings.

To translate this to the current situation: if a (hypothetical) investor judges bitcoin too risky, the right time to prepare for exiting was during the final stage of the bull run. This would be the right time to reduce the risk exposure and take some profit. But if our hypothetical investor came to the judgement that (s)he wants to hold the coins, since there is long term potential, then there is no sudden rate drop ever which can change this judgement fundamentally. The only pattern which would prompt to reconsider the judgement would be when there was a constant decline in rates over a time span longer than the time since the second last bubble, that is in our situation, a constant decline over a year or so, combined with stagnation and signs of disease in the bitcoin economy as a whole.

Rookie investors often make the mistake of thinking that what you paid for something should have some bearing on when you should sell it.  More successful investors pay no attention to how far they might be up or down, but focus exclusively on what they expect the future to bring.  For that, relevant past behavior is usually  the best predictor of future behavior.  Bitcoin is in a long-term bull rally, punctuated by some rather dramatic short-term corrections.  Unless the fundamentals or trend changes, a wise investor would be willing to ride out these downturns, rather than risk selling at the bottom of yet again another short-term correction.

No. The originally invested amount does not, for a rational individual, play a role in deciding whether an investment has a positive EV now and will therefore not play a role in deciding when to sell.

Again I point out the factor of the initial capital investment amount. If I bought something a year ago for lets say £13 and today it is worth £600 then I have a potential profit of £587. Since my profit margins are so high I can afford to loose a bit on a down slump and still be smiling. When however the £13 that I invested initially is looking like it may now be heading to a point where it is now worth £9, I need to question my motives on deciding to take the potential  loss on my initial investment or if I really have faith in what I have purchased for £13 and that the current price is going to go below £13 then I should sell it at £13 as a safety on my capital investment and then wait for the price to drop to say £6.50 or any number below £13 for that matter, wait for the market to re establish some stability and then go back and buy 2 for the same price that I just sold one at.

No an intelligent person might sell if it goes above a certain point and buy when it get's below a certain point.

If the supermarket on your corner store ups the prices this won't entice you run there and buy some right? If they lower the prices however, it might. There is no reason this should be any different for Bitcoin (or whatever else).

I think that those that have attacked me over this thread perhaps bought their coins a while back at a very cheap price so the fall of this morning would have not been threatening in any way to their capital invested. Others like me for instance were unfortunately a bit late on the uptake so have paid a much higher price for our initial investments and have more than just proffit losses to contend with.

Anyway each to their own, I was not attacking Bitcoin in anyway and am sorry it has been perseived as such I was mealy stating the fact that one should make sure that all of the systems you have in place work as you would expect them to and I don't see how that can be a bad thing.

I encourage you to continue to work out the kinks in your "sell on dips" strategy.  Can you let me know how many coins you plan to dump into the flash crashes, and which exchange you use, because I want to be sure I have enough fiat at that exchange to buy them up cheap!

Don't worry about losing them forever, though, as I usually start trimming my position when we hit new all-time highs.  I'll sell them back to you once the price goes back up!

In all seriousness, "buy and hold forever" is a better strategy.  It's better for you, since you don't sell low and buy high.  And it's better for Bitcoin since you don't add to the panic sell offs.  And since you're invested in bitcoins, anything that helps Bitcoin also helps you.  I think some people on this forum have overreacted to your post because they see your strategy as an attack on Bitcoin, and thus as an attack on them.

Keep in mind that last cpl crashes have shown us that mtgox lags out with all of the sell orders, purposely or not, I could see it being quite difficult to sell at a moments notice.

I did not sell as per my previous post but as an intelligent person if the price goes below a threshold that I have set for my self then I must consider my options even if that means selling and then getting back in at a lower price than what I sold for.

The point of the thread was mealy to point out that there could be many obstacles preventing you from trading in an instant, be it for buy or sell and that it was best to check that everything works as you would expect it to instead of trying to sort out these obstacles at the last minute when you may have missed your opportunity.   

It is volatile, so don't sell.

Sorry for upsetting you blablahblah. Just though it prudent to make sure everything works should the worst happen.

It is like saying in the IT world "Fuck DR plans" "Fuck Backups" it will all just lead to panic. I think it is best that those heavily invested in BTC accept that it IS VOLATILE instead of just blasting any caution that anyone provides into oblivion.

Good for you, next time mark the lower sell point $20 above what you desire, so there will be less chances of missing the oppurtunity.

no I did not actually sell as the price fall stopped just short of my sell point so I still have all of my BTC.

It was a good exercise though and I highly recommend doing it, I for instance discovered that my trading limit was too low to accommodate the amount of BTC that I would have wanted to sell so I have now had that upped to the correct level. 

Did it work, were you able to sell everything you wanted?

How much was it and where did you sell?

Hi

Am glad that things have unfolded as they have today, has given me an opportunity to test my "Exit plan". Getting coins to the exchange (taking into account confirmation time), making sure that my trading limits are sufficient etc.