Topic: Tone Vays Is 85% Certain Bitcoin (BTC) Hasn’t Hit True Bottom (Read 8178 times)

I reckon he might be one of the early bitcoin investors that came into the cryptospace before 2013. He has many followers in social media, however I would still choose the more entertaining Tom Lee over him hehehe.

Whoever is still waiting for the bottom level of Bitcoin and other crypto currency aside from what we have seen so far will wait in vain, and may lose the chance of investing at the cheaper rate. I don't believe in what OP quoted as it has no strong probability of the prediction coming to fulfilment. Although, am of the believe that Bitcoin might not reach the height of $20000 before end of the year.

Same here but indeed we need to recognize these bear cycles are much easier to stomach once you've seen it before.

No matter what, I think we're going back near the bottom again. Even if December is the lowest we go, we're probably still going to have another selloff event like in August of 2015. So maybe it won't be so easy after all. We still need the "despair" phase to finish playing out.

I think its like you said, to those who have been in crypto for many years this isnt so scary and just another cycle. Though to those who just got in recently have never seen lows so low.

He might not have. His hair might have before it was installed.

I still retain an open mind. If we've already bottomed that feels a bit too easy to me but I guess it wasn't to all the newcomers who got a good seeing to.

And who the hell this Tone Vays once again? Anyone could be a speculator, we cant say that his prediction isn't possible but basing on his previous predictions we can really say
that theres no point on looking or hearing out again his predictions.

Nah, I dont care if he had a mohican even.   All it says to me is maverick and he just doesnt care what you think which is the correct attitude for a successful trader.    I dont want to really listen to a human weather vane who just repeats what everyone else is saying, we already know the market runs on hype alot.   To trade successfully he has to spot trades to capture, reversals and break through of resistance

many people give such predictions and they may not know if the price of bitcoin has a movement depending on the presence of the buyer or if there is a request, if no one buys bitcoin then the price of bitcoin will never rise.

And probably not in a good way, though

You see, your outlook and appearance matter a lot even if on a purely subconscious level. For example, if someone speaks sense but who is untidy and sloppy overall as well as speaks like he has been lying his entire life, people won't be inclined to believe him much. On the other hand, someone with a decent haircut and expensive suit speaking firmly and confidently will inspire trust and confidence even if he says complete bullshit

What's the deal with that anyway? He must have heard 100s of cracks about it by now. Is it a marketing thing? I mean, who could forget about a guy with totally fucked up hair like that?

What is 85% more certain in this moment, that bitcoin has not hit its true bottom yet or that Tone Vays has a bad hairstyle?

It is moving towards the bad hairstyle, I reckon hehehe.

@1Referee. You are wrong hehehe. There are regular joes who buy when the price is going down in a bid to buy the lows. Ironically doing it causes more mistakes of buying at the wrong time and at the wrong price.

Most people will not admit this.

Generally, true bottoms can't be bought manually. You either need to set up buy orders in advance on various lower levels in the hope that they get filled, or have a bot jump in for you, because you can be sure of the fact that you are way too slow. I currently have no buy orders open, but will do so the moment we close below the 200 wma, which is a clear signal that there is more blood to come.

And yes, the joes of this world don't have the balls to buy in when the price is going down, especially if they tried to buy previous (way higher) dips with no success. We have had so many dips this year, and every one so far turned out to be the wrong one to buy, so we'll need more time to see if the $3200 will be added to that list. I hope not, but you never know here. Crazy shit happens when everyone is panicking at the same time.

A bottom of the price of bitcoin at 2500? That is not so bad, while some will probably get scared with such a low price the truth is the bottom never lasts that long, if we reached such price it will only last a few days or weeks giving you the opportunity to buy bitcoin for a price close to 10% of its all time high, while many will be afraid of doing such a maneuver those which have the guts and confidence in bitcoin will reap the rewards in just a few months.

At least, he has his own opinions about bitcoin price although, in the future, his prediction can be wrong. We have our own opinions too based on what we did so far, and I don't have to feel anything because I think bitcoin price can go up or down, it depends on the traders itself. If somehow, one bad news can trigger many traders become panic, then the price will get down without any delay. It's all about how we can prevent from the worst thing that might come later. So the better we can prevent, the big chance for us to reduce the loss.

Well, if the recent rally was not good enough for you, then which is?

Just in case, after the December crash (I refer to 2018, obviously) we started from $3200 and rose to almost $4400 (Bitfinex prices) which is like (4400-3200)/3200x100=37%. If you consider this as not very profitable for just a month, then I don't know, you turn out to be an extremely greedy guy, possibly beyond reasonable limits (given the current market, at least)

And yes, I think that this time it is different. You see, if I'm proved wrong, I'm okay with that as I will only lose part of my future profits. But if, on the other hand, I'm proved right after all, I will preserve my capital mostly intact (by massive hedging) and may even earn something (via shorts). I think this is a good trade-off, any way you look at it

tone vays, willy woo and all the others who are trying to call a bottom are all tools, and will all wind up vilified like vinny lingham, who called the top of bitcoin at $3k in 2017. all i can say is no one saw $20k coming and you arent going to see capitulation coming either. there is no for gone conclusion that there has to be any type of capitulation move.
Personally In 2017 I didnt think and Im sure most others probably didnt think  the bull run was on until we hit $5k. Im sure new blood didnt get in until even later than that. So imo right now all that is left are holders. The way many view a capitulation bottom around here is almost like a manipulated move by traders and whales to shake out weak hands blah blah. there are always going to be weak hands, but a $2k or $1k bottom would be like killing the golden goose if it was manipulated to those levels. the long term damage to the reputation of crypto would not be worth what small amount of coins that would be shaken loose.
 you are all fooling yourselves. trying to use reverse psychology being all negative and down on bitcoin so somehow whales or traders see all this negative sentiment and start the next bull run. not going to happen.  if anything the bull run will start and all those waiting for capitulation will pay through the nose because you will fomo. Make decisions on your own dont be sheep.

And I'm talking about the same

If it was a true "bottom", it wouldn't look like a bottom at all (e.g. like a seabed). It would be like a "big red dildo" with an almost instant and powerful rebound. But what we saw in late November and early December looked more like a hydraulic press crushing the prices without any genuine rebound. So while it definitely looks like a bottom, it may not be the one in the trading sense of the word (read, we have yet to see that "big red dildo")


I'm skeptical about any ATH's in the foreseeable future (other than local ones, of course)

What is your target for catching the knife? Or will you be going strictly off volume?

"past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes" refers to predictions about future performance. that's not relevant here. my point is about whether capitulation occurred according to discrete conditions. i've been referring to "capitulation" in the technical sense (see earlier link), which is indicated by high volume. "high volume" is a relative term that requires comparison to other similar events (major bottoms), otherwise it has no meaning. there is no prediction about future performance here, just comparisons to establish whether "high volume" actually occurred. re: the december bottom, it clearly didn't, by any possible metric. you need to cherry-pick and omit past samples in order to call december a "high volume" bottom.

discounting the february 2018 bottom is short-sighted for that reason. it took much, much more buying volume to establish that long term bottom than december. that's the underlying logic here: we're looking for huge volume to signify that everyone who plans to sell has sold. that's why the february bottom held for so long. sellers were completely exhausted.


in other words, "this time it's different" aka the most dangerous words in investing, lol. i don't have any interest in predicting what's going to happen the next few years. i do have an interest in observing when a capitulation bottom has occurred, because the subsequent rally is usually very profitable (unlike the recent bounce off the $3100s).