Tone Vays Is 85% Certain Bitcoin (BTC) Hasn’t Hit True Bottom - page 3.

deisik

legendary

Activity: 3514

Merit: 1280

English ⬄ Russian Translation Services

Quote from: 1Referee on January 17, 2019, 08:16:39 AM

Capitulation doesn't have to play out in the way people think it has to play out. The more convinced most people are for something to happen, the more convinced I am that it will not happen. It doesn't mean we won't be seeing lower lows, but the probability for a counter move becomes more likely. We saw that before we broke $6000 as well. Only a few expected $6000 to break, while the majority was speculating about higher prices, and lower we went

You can always put your money where your mouth is

Quote from: 1Referee on January 17, 2019, 08:16:39 AM

The great thing about bear markets is that people have no choice but to become a hodler, and by the time they notice that the price starts to climb back up again, they are more inclined to keep hodling because there is no point in selling

I don't agree with you on this point. There is in fact plenty of choice. You can sell and get out instead of possibly multiplying your losses down the road. Then you can sell twice as much and become a short-seller turning over from bulls to bears, from holders to speculators. On the other hand, you might have been a seasoned bear from long ago when prices were still over 10k. So your claim is only true with respect to a certain percentage of market participants and how big it is cannot be known. But it is certainly not about having no choice at all

And I don't see what's great in that. Care to explain?

1Referee

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1427

Quote from: cellard on January 16, 2019, 10:35:09 PM

I think Tone is right and we are still not bottomed but we are near capitulation. The sub $1000 prices will be the obligatory group of people that are too pessimistic and are always around on every bear market and they get it wrong.

Capitulation doesn't have to play out in the way people think it has to play out. The more convinced most people are for something to happen, the more convinced I am that it will not happen. It doesn't mean we won't be seeing lower lows, but the probability for a counter move becomes more likely. We saw that before we broke $6000 as well. Only a few expected $6000 to break, while the majority was speculating about higher prices, and lower we went.

The great thing about bear markets is that people have no choice but to become a hodler, and by the time they notice that the price starts to climb back up again, they are more inclined to keep hodling because there is no point in selling.

cellard

legendary

Activity: 1372

Merit: 1252

Quote from: deisik on January 16, 2019, 09:29:52 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on January 16, 2019, 03:46:33 AM

Quote from: fabiorem on January 15, 2019, 08:50:15 AM

He is right. Those guys from the BCash camp said they were to dump bitcoin until it reaches three-digits. Since Bitmain is behind it, and they hold a lot of coins, we can expect three-digits this year

Hahaha! Good luck! When did the Bitcoin Cash camp say it? Before or after Bitmain's slow disentigration? Cool

Believe it or not, it's turning out that Jihan Wu and Roger Ver are taking them on a road to nowhere.

And that would be a good thing in the long run

Correct me if I'm wrong on this, but it was Craig Wright who promised to crash Bitcoin into three digits. Whether he can now be considered part of the Bitcoin Cash camp is another question. He also promised to bring down Bitcoin ABC, and that can be loosely construed as an official declaration and beginning of the hash wars. It is not clear whether he actually wanted to compromise the competing chain and in fact intended to do something in that direction as it remains mostly unknown to the wider public but the ABC camp had to take protective measures anyway

Craig Wright doesn't have the funds to kill BCash (the BCH-ABC camp) and im assuming he is also supported by billionaire Calvin Ayre's wealth, so they are obviously talking nonsense. The amount of liquidity you need to dump BTC to these prices is simply too much and they would be stupid to attempt it.

I think Tone is right and we are still not bottomed but we are near capitulation. The sub $1000 prices will be the obligatory group of people that are too pessimistic and are always around on every bear market and they get it wrong.

deisik

legendary

Activity: 3514

Merit: 1280

English ⬄ Russian Translation Services

Quote from: Wind_FURY on January 16, 2019, 03:46:33 AM

Quote from: fabiorem on January 15, 2019, 08:50:15 AM

He is right. Those guys from the BCash camp said they were to dump bitcoin until it reaches three-digits. Since Bitmain is behind it, and they hold a lot of coins, we can expect three-digits this year

Hahaha! Good luck! When did the Bitcoin Cash camp say it? Before or after Bitmain's slow disentigration? Cool

Believe it or not, it's turning out that Jihan Wu and Roger Ver are taking them on a road to nowhere.

And that would be a good thing in the long run

Correct me if I'm wrong on this, but it was Craig Wright who promised to crash Bitcoin into three digits. Whether he can now be considered part of the Bitcoin Cash camp is another question. He also promised to bring down Bitcoin ABC, and that can be loosely construed as an official declaration and beginning of the hash wars. It is not clear whether he actually wanted to compromise the competing chain and in fact intended to do something in that direction as it remains mostly unknown to the wider public but the ABC camp had to take protective measures anyway

Wind_FURY

legendary

Activity: 2898

Merit: 1823

Quote from: fabiorem on January 15, 2019, 08:50:15 AM

He is right. Those guys from the BCash camp said they were to dump bitcoin until it reaches three-digits. Since Bitmain is behind it, and they hold a lot of coins, we can expect three-digits this year.

Hahaha! Good luck! When did the Bitcoin Cash camp say it? Before or after Bitmain's slow disentigration? Cool

Believe it or not, it's turning out that Jihan Wu and Roger Ver are taking them on a road to nowhere.

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: fabiorem on January 15, 2019, 08:50:15 AM

He is right. Those guys from the BCash camp said they were to dump bitcoin until it reaches three-digits.

Why would you take their word for it? What makes you think they have that many coins?

It's not like Wright is Satoshi. He's offered no proof of that, and none of the earliest mined coins have been moving on the blockchain. He just seems like a delusional megalomaniac, not someone who can control the Bitcoin market.

BitHodler

legendary

Activity: 1526

Merit: 1179

Quote from: fabiorem on January 15, 2019, 08:50:15 AM

He is right. Those guys from the BCash camp said they were to dump bitcoin until it reaches three-digits. Since Bitmain is behind it, and they hold a lot of coins, we can expect three-digits this year.

Bitmain will not dump its BTC other than what they have to sell to cover operational cost. The rest is capital they need to strengthen their portfolio, and don't forget that they need BTC to artificially keep Bcash at a certain price level.

People blindly assume that CSW owns a lot of coins, yet don't have any actual evidence to back it up. In other words, they believe what this con artist said is true, which is exactly what he wants.

He thrives on chaos and idiots on the internet believing everything he tweets. He must have had an amazing time with news outlets continuously donating him valuable promotion, and that for weeks straight. Smh....

Pursuer

legendary

Activity: 1638

Merit: 1163

Where is my ring of blades...

some people seem to resist any change in the statements they may on public, maybe they think if they change it people no longer listen to them but they forget that people already don't listen to them because they have overdone it already!
it is like the opposite of Tom Lee with his ATH predictions all through last year. this is as foolish as that one. they are all advertising themselves and gaining fake popularity and earning money from it while people keep discussing their nonsense.

gentlemand

legendary

Activity: 2590

Merit: 3015

Welt Am Draht

Quote from: fabiorem on January 15, 2019, 08:50:15 AM

He is right. Those guys from the BCash camp said they were to dump bitcoin until it reaches three-digits. Since bitmain is behind it, and they hold a lot of coins, we can expect three-digits this year.

It's not BCHABCwhatever that made that threat, it was the BCHSVCSWhatevacoin crew that did.

And as Bitmain has now ably proven no one actor can bend any aspect of BTC to their will. It's too big for that now.

fabiorem

sr. member

Activity: 1400

Merit: 347

He is right. Those guys from the BCash camp said they were to dump bitcoin until it reaches three-digits. Since Bitmain is behind it, and they hold a lot of coins, we can expect three-digits this year.

timerland

hero member

Activity: 1526

Merit: 596

Quote from: bbc.reporter on January 05, 2019, 10:30:29 PM

This is Tone Vays. The person who predicted that bitcoin's all time high will be about $7000 on 2017. I reckon it was where he liquidated his long positions hehehe.

In any case, will he be wrong again on predicting the bottom? Arthur Hayes of Bitmex predicted his bottom on $2500.

In a recent episode of On The Record, Vays spoke with Murad Mahmudov on all things crypto, revealing that he’s 85% certain that Bitcoin has not yet made a true bottom.

In fact, Vays believes that there’s a 40% chance that the true bottom will be between $1-2K and that there is a 10% chance that Bitcoin will go under $1,000. Based on the discussion, it seems that Vays agrees many altcoins are still far too expensive for the bear market to be over. This includes names like Ethereum (ETH), EOS, Cardano (ADA), XRP and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

On the other end of the spectrum, Vays predicts that the crypto market will not see all-time highs again, including Bitcoin to $20K, likely until 2020. That means that he sees the next two years as a choppy trading environment.

Read in full https://sludgefeed.com/tone-vayes-sets-1800-for-bitcoin-bottom/

I honestly am sick of these speculators that are regularly active on mainstream media, and putting out speculative predictions that are almost never backed by evidence.

Even if he is right about the bottom, it wouldn't lead me to believe that he's actually got a working system of predicting price movements whatsoever.

I think that the bottom is really somewhere around $3k. Prices could potentially go below that level for a very brief period of time, but not to 3 figures which he implies to be a probability.

But comparing current market conditions to the bear market that ended in 2016 would suggest that prices are indeed close to bottoming out, if not already at the price floor. That would mean that it's probably a good idea at this stage to start accumulating, if you are indeed interested in the long term prospects of bitcoin. Prices ain't gonna get much lower than this imho, and it's much better to dollar cost average rather than trying to put an exact number on the absolute bottom.

Febo

legendary

Activity: 2730

Merit: 1288

Quote from: mindrust on January 06, 2019, 07:40:51 AM

Quote from: adaseb on January 06, 2019, 12:27:48 AM

I wouldn't take anything he takes too seriously. He is not an active trader.

From what I remember, he recorded himself taking a 1 BTC 5x short on BTC sometime in the summer and it was the only trade he took the entire year. Obviously he got lucky with that prediction.

He has an explanation for this.

He basically trades 2 or 3 times a year. He never does a trade before he is %99 sure about the situation he is in. Being an active trader isn't always a good thing. Trading too many times is like playing dice every day. You'll lose everything in the end. If you do 10 trades every day, can you say you are sure of every trade you do? Nope. You'll fuck it up eventually.

That is actually really good strategy. I remember Warren Buffet saying he made his wealth out of 10 trades. So even if he would not do any other trade he would still be almost as rich as he is now. Other thing is in my country if you are normal guy trading that is not taxed. If you are heavy trader it act as a business and you need to pay taxes like on any business. That just give me more confidence to not trade Tongue

Beside that that with trading I usually just decreased my stack Tongue

Wilhelm

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1265

The only certainty is that his hairstyle won't attract women Grin

STT

legendary

Activity: 4102

Merit: 1454

Tone not giving a dam is one more reason to pay attention, you dont want to take any direction from someone preoccupied with what others think especially. His hair is whatever, if he spent any time on twitter at all concerned on his latest look for a conference he'd be worth half as less in anything he had to say. Pretty ironic but he probably has the correct personality to have half a chance of being correct vs market moves which tend to be like sheep flocks.

The man dont give a dam is a familiar attitude I see in market observers, I dont think he is oblivious to market mood but is aware popularity is a minor factor. I imagine for market bottom he is looking for unpopularity and a sharp spike not a careful descent

bbc.reporter

legendary

Activity: 3122

Merit: 1492

Quote from: pooya87 on January 10, 2019, 12:37:39 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on January 09, 2019, 09:04:49 PM

~
In any case, he made 1 correct prediction and made money on it previously. Let us hope he only got lucky and that it will not make him right again on the next. It would hurt to see another dump again.

how are you so sure that he didn't make profit from the rest of his predictions minus that 1 correct one? in other words how do you know that he is not doing the exact opposite of what he is publicly saying Cheesy

encouraging others to sell while you buy cheaper coins, encouraging others to buy when you want to sell at the peak,... that sort of thing.

Hehehe that is a good question. He might not be as stupid as he makes himself appear with that haircut. That is also another reason why we should not listen to these socalled wise men.

millensharon8

member

Activity: 378

Merit: 13

Quote from: DeathAngel on January 06, 2019, 03:50:06 AM

Does his Mom cut his hair with a knife & fork?

Seriously who cares what this douche predicts. These guys are wrong with their price predictions all the tike. Throw enough shit at a wall & eventually some of it will stick.

Lol. Honestly, no one cares! Bunch of guys like this just trying to gain recognition for their stupidity and as far as I am concerned, the only thing guys like this are good for is baseless predictions and trying to tell you I told you so in the long run. I only blame those who act on what they say. No one can predict whatever happens to the market, anything any one says is just baseless speculation. Whether the market has reached bottom or not, only time and trend can give that answer, and the last time I checked, Tone Vays is not time and trend.

eaglewhite80

member

Activity: 406

Merit: 36

Good for him! I wonder why anyone is paying attention to someone who called the peak at $7000 in 2017 anyway. This is a market and no one have a guarantee what the market will hold in the short term or long term. Anyone who wants to buy should buy and leave out this prediction game. There is a lot to look out for, when it comes to the market stamping a lower low in the long run, but whichever way, whether it has hit the bottom or not, it is still a good time to start buying. Probably, he is just busy stating his wish to be able to get in at a good price. Everywhere is a good price as long as you are comfortable with the price you are buying. At this point and lower, I am so comfortable, and if Tone Vays like, he should keep looking for his bottom.

NJB18

sr. member

Activity: 663

Merit: 250

Lol! I would love to hear more of his predictions so we can do the opposite.

I guess he lost all those hairs after he failed his previous predictions? He should wear a cap imo.

deisik

legendary

Activity: 3514

Merit: 1280

English ⬄ Russian Translation Services

Quote from: magneto on January 10, 2019, 12:54:47 AM

Also, I really don't get how he just puts out completely random and arbitrary numbers in terms of the probabilities of which prices go below a certain point, without backing it up with any form of legitimate analysis. That in my opinion is a sign that his opinion shouldn't be blindly trusted in, although that should be the case with any self proclaimed expert on speculation

Yeah, this is a telltale sign of bullshit

Why does he do that when any sane person would know better? As I see it, mostly because the audience he appeals to is not so particular and meticulous about presenting proofs in the name of "any form of legitimate analysis". Basically, such people get carried away with all these percentages blindly believing that if someone uses numbers like 43.53 percent, it is something trustworthy by definition. Guileless and naive folks think there is real analysis behind the figures while in reality it is only a simple trick which con artists often use to deceive people

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 3684

Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!

Quote from: pooya87 on January 06, 2019, 12:08:50 AM

In fact, Vays believes that there’s a 40% chance that the true bottom will be between $1-2K and that there is a 10% chance that Bitcoin will go under $1,000.

it sounds to me like someone who is dying to fill some shorts and will be satisfied if there were a big drop which gave him the profit he seeks from those shorts.

in any case it seems like it is one of those times when again everyone becomes a prophet and starts predicting bitcoin price and most of them are ridiculous like this one here.
[/quote]

Works for me. I probably had 0.01 BTC below $1k, only truly started earning well when it had long crossed over 4-digit territory and then onwards and upwards. Would love to get entire bitcoins for a month's work.

He'll short, I'll buy up those cheap coins.

Hoping more Tone Vays come around. The market's still too positive for a change of scene. We need them bears to come mauling, the kwukducks to come a calling, and the panic to start setting in. The more ridiculous the better!

Topic: Tone Vays Is 85% Certain Bitcoin (BTC) Hasn’t Hit True Bottom - page 3. (Read 8142 times)