at 75% orphans will happen.. it may not be the instant a >1mb is created. but after a few confirmations(new blocks) when the minority get its turn for blockheight.. it will orphan off the larger blocks that dont fit minority rules and rejoin the chains as if the bigger blocks didnt happen.. thats what orphaning is about.
orphaning is part of consensus... 75% is just a trigger, its not enough to form complete consensus and so orphans will still happen. thats why miners will most likely wait until 90%.. even if they have the setting triggered, they would still wait it out to avoid the risk of orphans..
no. you clearly do not understand what orphaned blocks are. the fact that you are comparing an orphaned block to a contentious hard fork is insane. you really should stop acting so condescending, telling people to "learn more" when virtually everything you claim about bitcoin is completely wrong. you clearly do not understand how bitcoin works.
please explain why "larger blocks that dont fit minority rules" would be orphaned off. nodes enforce the longest valid chain -- that's it. they don't go back and reconcile with other nodes that are enforcing different rules. why would they?
once 2MB consensus nodes start accepting bigger blocks onto the longest valid chain, 1MB consensus nodes will ignore them and continue enforcing the 1MB limit. but for 2MB consensus nodes, nothing is invalid...these are valid blocks being built on the longest valid chain, per their rule set. they have no reason to orphan said blocks, and they won't.
orphans (stale blocks) are valid blocks. a 2MB block under 1MB consensus is not a valid block. if a miner publishes a 2MB block and there is a network of nodes (Classic) enforcing a 2MB limit, the 1MB consensus chain will ignore the block; it's invalid. the 2MB consensus chain will not; it's valid. that block will fork bitcoin into two networks. this isn't about the risk of orphans. it's about the risk of 2 or more blockchains, permanently.
thats the point.. 75% is not good enough consensus.
as for why 75%..
well even at any time. anyone can change 1000000 to 2000000.. it dont matter.. the 75% is more of a warning to people to get their act together, its a wakeup call that they should not ignore the possibility
"get your act together ASAP or we're going to break bitcoin!" right....
lesson 1.
stales are not orphans.
stales are when you give up mid way because someone has found a block before you.
orphans are when there are 2 block solves with the previous block(s) being different. and whoever loses. that previous block is orphaned (loses its confirmations and disapears)
lesson 2.
you are right. small blockers will ignore big blocks, but wont stale their attempt, they would continue and make a small block.
lesson 3.
if the miners with the new rules see a block under 1mb get solved first. it wont reject it. because the rules are 0 to 2000000.. not 1000000 to 2000000. so a 1mb block is still valid even in the new rules.
and because the header data of the 1mb block does not contain any data related to bigger blocks. then the new rule client will say ok 1mb has hit block height by solving first. we need to orphan off the bigger blocks because they dont match the current winning blockheight (small blocker) data chain.
remember small blockers have less data to process so they have a chance of making their own chain of small blocks and getting height to make the big blockers orphan off the big block attempts.
and thats why 75% is not enough to make big blockers feel safe to even make big blocks. because of the risk of orphans.
lesson 4.
the trigger would have been set. a month would have passed. and the maority are aing they want to go with the new rules.. so if the minority dont wake up even with all the warnings, hints, and even triggers and graceperiods to get their act together and move over..
then by sticking thir head in the sand and not upgrading even with 75% trigger active, then they only have their selves to blame for forking.
if everyone woke up and said, oh look 75% of the network is changing, lets change too to avoid issues.. then there would be no problem.
but sticking your head in the sand and shouting to your puppet masters that you will stay below 1mb no matter what, is causing yourself to be a victim