I don't play around with penny-ante games of chance. I normally target large long term trends. Generally speaking winning such a bet would be a hollow victory and losing one would utterly suck.
By your own words, this is not a game of chance, since you are
so certain that ASIC designers are
swindlers who
never plan to make an ASIC.
Or... are you saying there is a chance that ASICs are legitimate?
One way or another, I'm don't trust anyone to sit on my BTC, and in particular not some scungy betting parlor operator (who will want a cut.)
Fine. I offer you to take this bet, 1:1 odds against me, but with coins escrowed by a trusted third-party. I suggest Graet (operator of ozcoin, who will not take a cut). Deal?
Find an example of where I was 'so certain' that BFL was a scam. I've never been 'certain' of this, but it is true that I've been suspicious for some time and I grow more suspicious by the day.
A trouble with bets of this nature is that it is both very cumbersome to line out the details of what constitutes a win or loss.
That said, I am at this point pretty sure that BFL is a scam by my definition. Here's the deal I would do, and I'll do it for 20 BTC (assuming my spending money is still available in instawallet and I don't have to go to my deep storage):
1) BFL had no program which could have feasibly produced, in time for their initial announced ship date of Oct 2012,
1a) a 60nm ASIC dedicated to Bitcoin mining
1b) largely their own design or a design commissioned by them for their exclusive use
1c) and for use only by them if _they_ so chose
AND
2) BFL fails to deliver a device utilizing a chip as described in 1) by Q2/2013
While BFL is tight-lipped, they gave every indication that the conditions of 1) were true so I consider them scammers if that turns out not to be the case. 2) just puts an end-date on this bet.
In the off-chance that BFL delivers anything by 04/2013, it may still be difficult to determine if it achieves the conditions of 1). If this cannot be understood by a majority of observers based on what seemingly reliable info leaks out, the bet is annulled and the bettors get their BTC back. (Put another way, you don't win the bet if Josh buys an Avalon and sells it to someone.)
I don't know Graet. If he can explain why he would be interested in wasting his time on such a trifling thing to my satisfaction, he can serve as an arbitrator and escrow (in conjunction with other interested parties reading this note.) My specifications are easy enough for most observers to understand (and fairly reasonable) so I imagine that Graet and Ozcoin would do a good job of arbitration.
If I win the bet, I'll take my 20 BTC back and your 20 BTC can go straight from the escrow to the Bitcoin Foundation.
What say ye?