2024 NFC North Overview and Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/
Regular Season Win Totals and NFC North/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Detroit Lions: 10.5 Over -135 Under +110 ~ NFC North Winner +130 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,200
Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ NFC North Winner +230 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,800
Chicago Bears: 8.5 Over -160 Under +130 ~ NFC North Winner +280 ~ Super Bowl Winner +3,500
Minnesota Vikings: 6.5 Over -140 Under +120 ~ NFC North Winner +1,100 ~ Super Bowl Winner +8,000
Coaching Changes
None
Team Previews
Detroit Lions: 14-6 ~ 4-2 NFC North ~ 14-6-0 ATS ~ 13-7-0 O/U
Won the NFC North, Lost in the NFC Championship
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 11
Notable Additions: G Kevin Zeitler, DE Marcus Davenport, DT D.J. Reader, CB Carlton Davis, CB Amik Robertson
Notable Losses: QB Teddy Bridgewater, WR Josh Reynolds, G Jonah Jackson, DE Romeo Okwara, DE Julian Okwara, CB Cameron Sutton, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
Notable Draft Selections: CB Terrion Arnold, CB Ennis Rakestraw, OT Giovanni Manu, S Sione Vaki
It did not take head coach Dan Campbell very long to move this franchise in the right direction as he inherited a mess and went 3-13 in his first season but bounced right back with the Lions first winning record in four seasons by going 9-8 and then last season, they were on the verge of their first ever trip to the Super Bowl but a second half meltdown in the NFC Championship left them saying what could have been. There is no sulking as Detroit is still one of the favorites to win the NFC with one of the most dynamic offenses in the league and if the defense can take it a step forward, the Lions could be right there again. The division has improved as a whole as evidenced by the win totals and the NFC North odds but it will be Detroit's to lose. They extended the contracts of quarterback Jared Goff and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, the two leaders of the offense that finished No. 6 in Offensive EPA and also No. 6 in both Rushing and Passing EPA. The former is due to the breakout season from rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and along with David Montgomery, the Lions have one of the best back duos in the league that runs behind one of the better offensive lines. The defense allowed 45 fewer ypg than 2022 but allowed nearly the same amount of points as they had some good games but offset those with some poor efforts, allowing 28 or more points seven times. The Lions could not stop the pass but upgraded with two solid draft picks along with signing cornerback Carlton Davis.
Detroit was a public betting darling last year as following that 9-8 season in 2022, the Lions went from +12,500 that year to win the Super Bowl to +2,200 last year and now the Lions come in at +1,200 and will be heavily bet again following their first division title in 30 yards and that NFC Championship run. They do have the roster to make it happen but the value is shot. The Lions won the division by three games last season and it likely will be a lot closer this year but the odds are relatively the same, going from +135 to +130 so this could be the way to go. The schedule is not easy playing the NFC West and AFC South while the three crossover games are all against playoff teams from last season. Their 10.5 win total is the highest in franchise history.
Green Bay Packers: 10-9 ~ 4-2 NFC North ~ 11-8-0 ATS ~ 11-8-0 O/U
Finished 2nd in the NFC North, Lost in the NFC Divisional Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 4
Notable Additions: RB Josh Jacobs, OT Andre Dillard, S Xavier McKinney, S Greg Joseph
Notable Losses: RB Aaron Jones, TE Joiah Deguara, OT David Bakhtiari, OT Yosh Nijman, G Jon Runyan, LB D’Vondre Campbell, S Darnell Savage, S Jonathan Owens
Notable Draft Selections: OT Jordan Morgan, LB Edgerrin Cooper, CB/S Javon Bullard, RB Marshawn Lloyd, LB Ty’Ron Hopper, S Evan Williams
The Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay ended with a non-playoff season in 2022 and while it took new starting quarterback Jordan Love to find his footing last season, he ran with it once he did. The Packers opened 2-5 but closed on a 7-3 run to make the playoffs and then ran away from Dallas early in the Wild Card Round before losing a tough three-point game at San Francisco in the Divisional Round. Love started slow as any first year starting quarterback usually does as he posted QB ratings of 88.0 and 65.4 in September and October but put up ratings of 103.1, 107.4 and 128.6 in November, December and January. He looked extremely comfortable down the stretch so maybe it is more about ability and talent and not so much teams not knowing what to expect. Can he keep it going with good but not great wide receivers? The three top receivers, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs are all talented but none are a true No. 1 but what they lack in fantasy value, they make up for in consistency and Love having the ability to mix and match to keep opposing defenses honest. The Packers lost running back Aaron Jones to the Vikings but got Josh Jacobs as a replacement and he arguably has more upside. The defense finished No. 24 in EPA and while they allowed fewer than 20 points seven times, they gave up 30 or more five times and the offense could not bail them out in three of those. This is a quality young team but they do not have that it factor that other teams possess.
The late run at the end of the regular season along with the blowout of Dallas and the near miss against San Francisco has people believing in the Packers. With the offense that was so young with first and second year starters, opponents simply did not have much on how to defend but with a year of film, teams should be more prepared. But to their own merit, they are a year older with more experience. Six of their 10 wins were against non-playoff teams and the schedule takes a big jump up in strength so it will not be easy. Their three crossover games are against Philadelphia, Miami and New Orleans with none being true road games which helps. The win total seems too high because everyone will only remember the late season surge.
Chicago Bears: 7-10 ~ 2-4 NFC North ~ 8-7-2 ATS ~ 9-8-0 O/U
Finished Tied for 3rd in the NFC North, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 29
Notable Additions: RB D'Andre Swift, WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett, OT Jake Curhan, G Matt Pryor, C Ryan Bates, C Coleman Shelton, DE Jacob Martin, S Kevin Byard, S Jonathan Owens
Notable Losses: QB Justin Fields, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Darnell Mooney, TE Marcedes Lewis, G Cody Whitehair, C Lucas Patrick, DE Yannick Ngakoue, DT Justin Jones, S Eddie Jackson
Notable Draft Selections: QB Caleb Williams, WR Rome Odunze, OT Kiran Amegabjige, P Tory Taylor, DE Austin Booker
The Bears had their best season with quarterback Justin Fields in his three years but possessing the No. 1 overall draft pick, they decided to move in a different direction. It has been a lousy run for Chicago as it has been to the playoffs only twice since 2011 while finishing with a winning record only twice over that span as well. The Bears drafted Caleb Williams as their hopeful franchise quarterback and the public seems to be all in with many other upgrades throughout the roster as well. Williams gives them a young talent who navigates the pocket and makes throws like a veteran and unlike most quarterbacks in Bears history, he will have a great group of receivers to throw to. Considering Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson at the age of 24 already has more receiving yards than any player in Bears history, the optimism is real with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze possibly becoming one of the best trios in the league. Chicago has depth at running back after signing D'Andre Swift and this could turn into a potent offense as long as the offensive line can stay healthy which was a problem last season. The Bears had a solid improvement on defense from 2022 and finished No. 13 in EPA thanks to a great second half of the season. Over their final eight games, they allowed 31 points against the Lions in one of those but in the other seven games, they gave up just 15.1 ppg. They will not be that good in 2024 but there is hope that a healthy bunch can do just enough to stay around.
While the public loves the Lions once again, they really love the Bears which forced oddsmakers to overadjust some of these odds. While the Bears may be better, the division as a whole is stronger and the Chicago numbers have come down in Super Bowl, NFC and NFC North odds while the win total has gone up. At +280 to win the division, this is the second lowest number since 2010 with the lowest being 2019 when they were +175 and finished third. This is a hard pass. The Bears are 1-9-1 to the under the last 11 seasons and now they are hit with their fourth highest win total over this stretch. They get the Rams, Commanders and Patriots in the crossover games but finding 9 wins seems aggressive. -114 to miss the playoffs could be the bet.
Minnesota Vikings: 7-10 ~ 2-4 NFC North ~ 7-7-3 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/U
Finished Tied for 3rd in the NFC North, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 18
Notable Additions: QB Sam Darnold, RB Aaron Jones, WR Trent Sherfield, C Dan Feeney, DT Jerry Tillery, DE/OLB Jonathan Greenard, DE/OLB Andrew Van Ginkel, LB Blake Cashman, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, CB Shaq Griffin
Notable Losses: QB Kirk Cousins, QB Josh Dobbs, RB Alexander Mattison, WR K.J. Osborn, OT David Quessenberry, G Dalton Risner, DE Danielle Hunter, DE D.J. Wonnum, DE Marcus Davenport, DT Dean Lowry, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Troy Dye, K Greg Joseph
Notable Draft Selections: QB J.J. McCarthy, DE Dallas Turner, CB Khyree Jackson
The Vikings had high hopes last season coming off a 13-win season but that was a façade as they were the luckiest team in the NFL as they went 11-1 in one possession games during the regular season. Flash forward to last season, they opened 0-3, all one possession losses no less, and while they rallied to get to 4-4, quarterback Kirk Cousins was lost for the season with an Achillies injury and they could not produce in the second half on the season, finishing on a 1-6 run, the lone win being a 3-0 snoozefest over Las Vegas. Now that Cousins is gone, Minnesota had to decide between Sam Darnold, who is playing for his fourth team in five years, or rookie J.J. McCarthy but it was unfortunately decided when McCarthy was lost for the season with a knee injury. Darnold does have one of the best wide receivers in football in Justin Jefferson, a solid second option in Jordan Addison and a great tight end in T.J. Hockenson when he gets back to full health. The Vikings upgraded their running back by signing Aaron Jones away from Green Bay and they have a very solid offensive line. But is Darnold really the answer? The defense was horrible from 2020-2022 but they showed improvements last season, going from second worst in total defense to No. 16. Minnesota only had two players register more than three sacks and both are gone so the turnstile the defense has gone through from last season needs to find some players to step up in a highly offensive division. Drafting Dallas Turner was a start.
The 6.5 wins for the Vikings are the lowest since 2014 when the number was 6 and they actually have not been below 8.5 since 2015 so the oddsmakers are expecting a pretty big drop-off. This is because of Darnold who entered the league as a can't miss but he has been just that with his 21-35 record as a starter, his 59.7 completion percentage and his 78.3 QB rating. He has been on some bad teams, but there is not much around him here and he cannot carry a team on his shoulders into the postseason so every future bet is off the board especially when they are -355 to miss the playoffs. The Giants, Jets and Falcons are the crossovers so that is one win and trying to locate six others is a stretch. The under at plus money is a look.
Topic: TopSportsCappers.com Free Picks Thread (Read 1383 times)
2024 NFC East Overview and Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/
Discount 50% off All Handicappers
So jump on the discounts while you can. Picks and Packages less than 6 months are guaranteed to show a profit.
Regular Season Win Totals and NFC East/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner -125 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,400
Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 Over -145 Under +120 ~ NFC East Winner +170 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,900
Washington Commanders: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner +900 ~ Super Bowl Winner +12,000
New York Giants: 6.5 Over +115 Under -135 ~ NFC East Winner +2,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +15,000
Coaching Changes
Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera Out ~ Dan Quinn In
Team Previews
Philadelphia Eagles: 11-7 ~ 4-2 NFC East ~ 7-9-2 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/U
Finished 2nd in the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 21
Notable Additions: QB Kenny Pickett, RB Saquon Barkley, WR DeVante Parker, WR Parris Campbell, G Matt Hennessy, NT P.J. Mustipher, OLB Bryce Huff, LB Devin White, LB Oren Burks, LB Zack Baun, CB/S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
Notable Losses: QB Marcus Mariota, RB D’Andre Swift, RB Rashaad Penny, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, G Sua Opeta, C Jason Kelce, DE Haason Reddick, DT Fletcher Cox, LB Nicholas Morrow, LB Zach Cunningham, LB Shaq Leonard, S Kevin Byard, S Justin Evans
Notable Draft Selections: CB Quinyon Mitchell, CB/S Cooper DeJean, DE Jalyx Hunt, RB Will Shipley, WR Ainias Smith, LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
Philadelphia had two five-game winning streaks to start last season wrapped around a loss to the Jets on the road to open 10-1 and it was looking well on its way to another Super Bowl run. Then all of a sudden, the Eagles forgot how to score as they put up fewer than 20 points in five of their final seven games including a season-low nine points in their Wild Card Round loss to the Buccaneers. What was hidden in that offensive run was that the defense was even worse as Philadelphia allowed 31 ppg over their final eight games. It was a stunning implosion and one that many thought would cost head coach Nick Sirianni his job yet he escaped but he is on the hot seat despite nearly winning the Super Bowl just two years ago. A lot of it is rumored that there is a rift between him and quarterback Jalen Hurts but it is something they have to work around to make this work. The Eagles did a pretty big overhaul on both sides of the ball as on offense, they signed running back Saquon Barkley to give them the dynamic player they could not find and recently traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson so they should be back in line with their 2022 numbers. The defense regressed by 70 ypg and 7 ppg from 2022 and Philadelphia brought in a number of new faces across all levels to shore this unit up. The Eagles let seven significant contributors go and brought in more younger talent and nailed two draft picks to bolster their secondary. The biggest move could be hiring Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator.
The Eagles come in as the favorite to win the NFC East and the number is similar to that of last season but their NFC and Super Bowl odds have nearly doubled as they came into 2023 at +800 and dropped all the way to +450 prior to their implosion. The win total is one fewer than last season, which they missed the over by a half-game, and the drop in win total correlates with the increase in odds and based on the schedule and all of the upgrades, there is some value in betting Philadelphia across the board but that is not likely where our money is going as there are teams below them with higher odds that could have an easier path. Crossover games against Green Bay and Baltimore away from home could determine their over/under result.
Dallas Cowboys: 12-6 ~ 5-1 NFC East ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 10-7-1 O/U
Won the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 12
Notable Additions: RB Ezekiel Elliott, LB Eric Kendricks
Notable Losses: RB Tony Pollard, WR Michael Gallup, OT Tyron Smith, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Dante Fowler, DT Johnathan Hankins, LB Leighton Vander Esch, CB Stephon Gilmore, S Jayron Kearse
Notable Draft Selections: OT Tyler Guyton, DE Marshawn Kneeland, G Cooper Beebe, LB Marist Liufau
Dallas has won the NFC East five of the last 10 seasons but was unable to get past the Divisional Round three times while losing in the Wild Card Round twice and throw in another Divisional Round loss in 2022 as a Wild Card team, it has been a decade of disappointment. Dallas won its last Super Bowl in 1995 and in 13 playoff appearances since then, the Cowboys have not even made it to the NFC Championship so why they get so much attention and public backing is mind-boggling. Here they are again with high expectations in a conference that is wide open with arguably six teams that can win the NFC with Dallas in that mix. Since 2015, they have been no higher than +1,500 to win the NFC and no other team can stake that claim over the last nine years yet there have been six different teams representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. Enough about the Dallas futility as it again has talent to make a run that many fans have not been able to witness. Quarterback Dak Prescott is usually the scapegoat and will likely be again but other than CeeDee Lamb, the offense is not very good. There is no reliable No. 2 receiver, the running game is going to be bad and the offensive line lost two significant starters. Running back Tony Pollard is off to Tennessee so they resigned Ezekiel Elliott to go along with Rico Dowdle. The defense was No. 23 in EPA and they did not do much to upgrade as the pass rush will still be solid but the back end needs help, especially with DaRon Bland out a while.
Money will be pouring in on the Cowboys as is the case every year and that will not be including a single cent from this end, at least to start. There will be that one season where Dallas eventually wins the Super Bowl and we will miss it but continuing to chase a so-called contender every season has cost a lot of people a lot of money. Detroit, San Francisco and Houston are the three crossover games besides playing the NFC South and AFC North so this schedule is not easy and there is value on the under at plus money. The bet could be for Dallas to make the playoffs which DraftKings has at -210 but it is a wait and see as the first seven games present a challenge and we could see the number drop should they have some early struggles.
Washington Commanders: 4-13 ~ 0-6 NFC East ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 19
Notable Additions: QB Marcus Mariota, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Zach Ertz, G Nick Allegretti, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Clelin Ferrell, DE Dante Fowler, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Frankie Luvu, CB Michael Davis, S Jeremy Chinn, K Brandon McManus
Notable Losses: QB Jayden Daniels, DT Johnny Newton, CB Mike Sainristill, TE Ben Sinnott, OT Brandon Coleman, WR Luke McCaffrey, LB Jordan Magee
Notable Draft Selections: QB Jacoby Brissett, QB Sam Howell, RB Antonio Gibson, WR Curtis Samuel, TE Logan Thomas, OT Charles Leno, G Saahdiq Charles, C Nick Gates, DE Casey Toohill, DE James Smith-Williams, LB Cody Baron, CB Kendall Fuller, S Kamren Curl, K Joey Slye
Washington has won the NFC East only three times since the turn of the century, two of those with nine or fewer wins including one with a losing record. They have not had a double-digit winning season since 2012 while having just three 10-win seasons since 1992 after having done so in eight of their previous nine seasons from 1983-1991. This is the epitome of below average and the Commanders are once again going through a rebuild but this one seems a little different. Last season, Washington opened last season 2-0 and while no one was expecting any sort of positive run, it went south quickly as the Commanders lost 13 of their last 15 games with the two wins coming against Atlanta and New England. The offense needs a spark as the Commanders have averaged between 313 and 330 ypg and 19 and 21 ppg over the last four seasons and they are hoping Jayden Daniels provides it. He is being compared to Robert Griffin III but with a higher ceiling and to help alleviate the transition to an NFL starter, the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler who is great when healthy and teamed with Brian Robinson, this is a very solid backfield. Wide receiver Jahan Dotson was shipped off to rival Philadelphia but Terry McLaurin is still a solid No. 1 and Washington did a good job of strengthening its offensive line. The Commanders regressed considerably on defense and finished dead last in EPA while allowing 10 more ppg and 85 more ypg than it did in 2022. They did upgrade but far from enough.
Could Washington be the Houston of last season, bringing in the No. 2 draft pick to take them to the playoffs? This is unlikely in this division but the Commanders will be better after getting outgained in 13 of 17 games last season. Despite only four wins last season, the win total of 6.5 is the same as last year which came after an eight-win season in 2022 so the oddsmakers are expecting improvements. The schedule definitely helps as Washington has nine home games, it has four winnable road games and its three crossover games are against Arizona, Chicago and Tennessee. All in, there are 11 swing games including seven of the first nine so a 5-4 start a possible and there are two more wins the rest of the way so the over is the play.
New York Giants: 6-11 ~ 3-3 NFC East ~ 8-8-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 6
Notable Additions: QB Drew Lock, RB Devin Singletary, WR Isaiah McKenzie, OT Jermaine Eluemunor, G Jon Runyan, G Aaron Stinnie, DE Brian Burns, S Jalen Mills
Notable Losses: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Parris Campbell, TE Darren Waller, DT A’Shawn Robinson, OLB Isaiah Simmons, S Xavier McKinney
Notable Draft Selections: WR Malik Nabers, S Tyler Nubin, CB Andru Phillips, TE Theo Johnson
No team has won the NFC East in consecutive years since 2004, the longest streak in NFL history but the Giants have not been part of the musical chairs since their last division title in 2011. New York made a surprising playoff run in 2022, if you can call a run one playoff victory, and it hoped to build off of that heading into last season but there was some early foreshadowing after a 40-0 season opening loss at home against Dallas. Their first four losses were by more than two touchdowns and while they got some late season success from backup quarterback Tommy DeVito, it was a disaster of a season for the Giants. Many are calling this the year it has to happen for quarterback Daniel Jones and head coach Brian Daboll but this is just hard to foresee. New York drafted a franchise wide receiver in Malik Nabers and with Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson, this trio could be something special, if they can get the ball. Jones has shown some positive things but he looks too uncomfortable a majority of the time and he is coming off that torn ACL while his preseason work has been hard to watch at times. The loss of Saquon Barkley is going to hurt and they did hardly anything to improve one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The defense has regressed each of the last five seasons and not much was invested in improving. They do have a formidable defensive line as they got Brian Burns from Carolina to line up with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence but there are holes elsewhere.
While we like the Washington over at 6.5, we love the Giants under at the same number even with a little added juice to it. New York was on pace to have one of the worst records in the NFL last season but closing 4-3 over the last seven games in a stretch that meant nothing inflated their overall record to 6-11 and that hurts going into this season. New York has to face the No. 6 schedule that is loaded early on and this season could be over quickly. The Giants get Indianapolis, Minnesota and Seattle in their three crossover games and none of those are easy despite the first two being at home. They have gone 2-9 to the under over the last 11 seasons, finishing with six or fewer wins in eight of those and we do not see that changing again this year.
By Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/
Discount 50% off All Handicappers
So jump on the discounts while you can. Picks and Packages less than 6 months are guaranteed to show a profit.
Regular Season Win Totals and NFC East/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner -125 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,400
Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 Over -145 Under +120 ~ NFC East Winner +170 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,900
Washington Commanders: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner +900 ~ Super Bowl Winner +12,000
New York Giants: 6.5 Over +115 Under -135 ~ NFC East Winner +2,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +15,000
Coaching Changes
Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera Out ~ Dan Quinn In
Team Previews
Philadelphia Eagles: 11-7 ~ 4-2 NFC East ~ 7-9-2 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/U
Finished 2nd in the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 21
Notable Additions: QB Kenny Pickett, RB Saquon Barkley, WR DeVante Parker, WR Parris Campbell, G Matt Hennessy, NT P.J. Mustipher, OLB Bryce Huff, LB Devin White, LB Oren Burks, LB Zack Baun, CB/S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
Notable Losses: QB Marcus Mariota, RB D’Andre Swift, RB Rashaad Penny, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, G Sua Opeta, C Jason Kelce, DE Haason Reddick, DT Fletcher Cox, LB Nicholas Morrow, LB Zach Cunningham, LB Shaq Leonard, S Kevin Byard, S Justin Evans
Notable Draft Selections: CB Quinyon Mitchell, CB/S Cooper DeJean, DE Jalyx Hunt, RB Will Shipley, WR Ainias Smith, LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
Philadelphia had two five-game winning streaks to start last season wrapped around a loss to the Jets on the road to open 10-1 and it was looking well on its way to another Super Bowl run. Then all of a sudden, the Eagles forgot how to score as they put up fewer than 20 points in five of their final seven games including a season-low nine points in their Wild Card Round loss to the Buccaneers. What was hidden in that offensive run was that the defense was even worse as Philadelphia allowed 31 ppg over their final eight games. It was a stunning implosion and one that many thought would cost head coach Nick Sirianni his job yet he escaped but he is on the hot seat despite nearly winning the Super Bowl just two years ago. A lot of it is rumored that there is a rift between him and quarterback Jalen Hurts but it is something they have to work around to make this work. The Eagles did a pretty big overhaul on both sides of the ball as on offense, they signed running back Saquon Barkley to give them the dynamic player they could not find and recently traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson so they should be back in line with their 2022 numbers. The defense regressed by 70 ypg and 7 ppg from 2022 and Philadelphia brought in a number of new faces across all levels to shore this unit up. The Eagles let seven significant contributors go and brought in more younger talent and nailed two draft picks to bolster their secondary. The biggest move could be hiring Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator.
The Eagles come in as the favorite to win the NFC East and the number is similar to that of last season but their NFC and Super Bowl odds have nearly doubled as they came into 2023 at +800 and dropped all the way to +450 prior to their implosion. The win total is one fewer than last season, which they missed the over by a half-game, and the drop in win total correlates with the increase in odds and based on the schedule and all of the upgrades, there is some value in betting Philadelphia across the board but that is not likely where our money is going as there are teams below them with higher odds that could have an easier path. Crossover games against Green Bay and Baltimore away from home could determine their over/under result.
Dallas Cowboys: 12-6 ~ 5-1 NFC East ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 10-7-1 O/U
Won the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 12
Notable Additions: RB Ezekiel Elliott, LB Eric Kendricks
Notable Losses: RB Tony Pollard, WR Michael Gallup, OT Tyron Smith, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Dante Fowler, DT Johnathan Hankins, LB Leighton Vander Esch, CB Stephon Gilmore, S Jayron Kearse
Notable Draft Selections: OT Tyler Guyton, DE Marshawn Kneeland, G Cooper Beebe, LB Marist Liufau
Dallas has won the NFC East five of the last 10 seasons but was unable to get past the Divisional Round three times while losing in the Wild Card Round twice and throw in another Divisional Round loss in 2022 as a Wild Card team, it has been a decade of disappointment. Dallas won its last Super Bowl in 1995 and in 13 playoff appearances since then, the Cowboys have not even made it to the NFC Championship so why they get so much attention and public backing is mind-boggling. Here they are again with high expectations in a conference that is wide open with arguably six teams that can win the NFC with Dallas in that mix. Since 2015, they have been no higher than +1,500 to win the NFC and no other team can stake that claim over the last nine years yet there have been six different teams representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. Enough about the Dallas futility as it again has talent to make a run that many fans have not been able to witness. Quarterback Dak Prescott is usually the scapegoat and will likely be again but other than CeeDee Lamb, the offense is not very good. There is no reliable No. 2 receiver, the running game is going to be bad and the offensive line lost two significant starters. Running back Tony Pollard is off to Tennessee so they resigned Ezekiel Elliott to go along with Rico Dowdle. The defense was No. 23 in EPA and they did not do much to upgrade as the pass rush will still be solid but the back end needs help, especially with DaRon Bland out a while.
Money will be pouring in on the Cowboys as is the case every year and that will not be including a single cent from this end, at least to start. There will be that one season where Dallas eventually wins the Super Bowl and we will miss it but continuing to chase a so-called contender every season has cost a lot of people a lot of money. Detroit, San Francisco and Houston are the three crossover games besides playing the NFC South and AFC North so this schedule is not easy and there is value on the under at plus money. The bet could be for Dallas to make the playoffs which DraftKings has at -210 but it is a wait and see as the first seven games present a challenge and we could see the number drop should they have some early struggles.
Washington Commanders: 4-13 ~ 0-6 NFC East ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 19
Notable Additions: QB Marcus Mariota, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Zach Ertz, G Nick Allegretti, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Clelin Ferrell, DE Dante Fowler, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Frankie Luvu, CB Michael Davis, S Jeremy Chinn, K Brandon McManus
Notable Losses: QB Jayden Daniels, DT Johnny Newton, CB Mike Sainristill, TE Ben Sinnott, OT Brandon Coleman, WR Luke McCaffrey, LB Jordan Magee
Notable Draft Selections: QB Jacoby Brissett, QB Sam Howell, RB Antonio Gibson, WR Curtis Samuel, TE Logan Thomas, OT Charles Leno, G Saahdiq Charles, C Nick Gates, DE Casey Toohill, DE James Smith-Williams, LB Cody Baron, CB Kendall Fuller, S Kamren Curl, K Joey Slye
Washington has won the NFC East only three times since the turn of the century, two of those with nine or fewer wins including one with a losing record. They have not had a double-digit winning season since 2012 while having just three 10-win seasons since 1992 after having done so in eight of their previous nine seasons from 1983-1991. This is the epitome of below average and the Commanders are once again going through a rebuild but this one seems a little different. Last season, Washington opened last season 2-0 and while no one was expecting any sort of positive run, it went south quickly as the Commanders lost 13 of their last 15 games with the two wins coming against Atlanta and New England. The offense needs a spark as the Commanders have averaged between 313 and 330 ypg and 19 and 21 ppg over the last four seasons and they are hoping Jayden Daniels provides it. He is being compared to Robert Griffin III but with a higher ceiling and to help alleviate the transition to an NFL starter, the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler who is great when healthy and teamed with Brian Robinson, this is a very solid backfield. Wide receiver Jahan Dotson was shipped off to rival Philadelphia but Terry McLaurin is still a solid No. 1 and Washington did a good job of strengthening its offensive line. The Commanders regressed considerably on defense and finished dead last in EPA while allowing 10 more ppg and 85 more ypg than it did in 2022. They did upgrade but far from enough.
Could Washington be the Houston of last season, bringing in the No. 2 draft pick to take them to the playoffs? This is unlikely in this division but the Commanders will be better after getting outgained in 13 of 17 games last season. Despite only four wins last season, the win total of 6.5 is the same as last year which came after an eight-win season in 2022 so the oddsmakers are expecting improvements. The schedule definitely helps as Washington has nine home games, it has four winnable road games and its three crossover games are against Arizona, Chicago and Tennessee. All in, there are 11 swing games including seven of the first nine so a 5-4 start a possible and there are two more wins the rest of the way so the over is the play.
New York Giants: 6-11 ~ 3-3 NFC East ~ 8-8-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 6
Notable Additions: QB Drew Lock, RB Devin Singletary, WR Isaiah McKenzie, OT Jermaine Eluemunor, G Jon Runyan, G Aaron Stinnie, DE Brian Burns, S Jalen Mills
Notable Losses: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Parris Campbell, TE Darren Waller, DT A’Shawn Robinson, OLB Isaiah Simmons, S Xavier McKinney
Notable Draft Selections: WR Malik Nabers, S Tyler Nubin, CB Andru Phillips, TE Theo Johnson
No team has won the NFC East in consecutive years since 2004, the longest streak in NFL history but the Giants have not been part of the musical chairs since their last division title in 2011. New York made a surprising playoff run in 2022, if you can call a run one playoff victory, and it hoped to build off of that heading into last season but there was some early foreshadowing after a 40-0 season opening loss at home against Dallas. Their first four losses were by more than two touchdowns and while they got some late season success from backup quarterback Tommy DeVito, it was a disaster of a season for the Giants. Many are calling this the year it has to happen for quarterback Daniel Jones and head coach Brian Daboll but this is just hard to foresee. New York drafted a franchise wide receiver in Malik Nabers and with Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson, this trio could be something special, if they can get the ball. Jones has shown some positive things but he looks too uncomfortable a majority of the time and he is coming off that torn ACL while his preseason work has been hard to watch at times. The loss of Saquon Barkley is going to hurt and they did hardly anything to improve one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The defense has regressed each of the last five seasons and not much was invested in improving. They do have a formidable defensive line as they got Brian Burns from Carolina to line up with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence but there are holes elsewhere.
While we like the Washington over at 6.5, we love the Giants under at the same number even with a little added juice to it. New York was on pace to have one of the worst records in the NFL last season but closing 4-3 over the last seven games in a stretch that meant nothing inflated their overall record to 6-11 and that hurts going into this season. New York has to face the No. 6 schedule that is loaded early on and this season could be over quickly. The Giants get Indianapolis, Minnesota and Seattle in their three crossover games and none of those are easy despite the first two being at home. They have gone 2-9 to the under over the last 11 seasons, finishing with six or fewer wins in eight of those and we do not see that changing again this year.
2024 AFC West Overview and Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
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Regular Season Win Totals and AFC West/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Over -115 Under -105 ~ AFC West Winner -260 ~ Super Bowl Winner +500
Los Angeles Chargers: 8.5 Over -155 Under +130 ~ AFC West Winner +350 ~ Super Bowl Winner +4,500
Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ AFC West Winner +1,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +10,000
Denver Broncos: 5.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ AFC West Winner +2,200 ~ Super Bowl Winner +30,000
Coaching Changes
Los Angeles Chargers: Brandon Staley/Giff Smith Out ~ Jim Harbaugh In
Las Vegas Raiders: Josh McDaniels Out ~ Antonio Pierce In
Team Previews
Kansas City Chiefs: 15-6 ~ 4-2 AFC West ~ 13-7-1 ATS ~ 7-13-1 O/U
Won AFC West, Won Super Bowl LVIII
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 16
Notable Additions: QB Carson Wentz, WR Marquise Brown, TE Irv Smith
Notable Losses: WR Mecole Hardman, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, OT Donovan Smith, G Nick Allegretti, LB Willie Gay, CB L’Jarius Sneed, S Mike Edwards, P Tommy Townsend
Notable Draft Selections: WR Xavier Worthy, OT Kingsley Suamataia, TE Jared Wiley, S Jaden Hicks, C Hunter Nourzad
Kansas City is coming off its second consecutive Super Bowl victory and third over its last five years and the Chiefs are out to become the first ever Super Bowl three-peat Champion. They have made the playoffs nine consecutive seasons, which includes four Super Bowl appearances, while accumulating double-digit wins in all nine of those campaigns. Additionally, they have been to six consecutive AFC Championship games with the two losses coming by one possession so when the term dynasty is being thrown around, it fits here. Last year was probably the most impressive as the Chiefs had to deal with something they have not had to during this Super Bowl stretch as they were 8-1 at home in the postseason in those first four years with not having to play a road game but won two road games last season at Buffalo and Baltimore. The offense had a down season, easily their worst during this run but the defense picked up the slack as that side had its best results over the last five seasons. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes still showed why he is the best in the league as he had no consistency with his receivers with the exception of Travis Kelce and he will have to figure it out again with a couple more losses while getting Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy. It might be hard to duplicate the defense from last season as the secondary took a big hit with the loss of L'Jarius Sneed but a healthy Chris Jones still gives them one of the best defensive lines in the league.
With Kansas City seeking its unprecedented third straight Super Bowl, the odds are not in their favor simply based on probability because winning in this league is hard but the actual odds are not in their favor either as the Chiefs are +500 after coming into 2022 and 2023 at +1,000 and +600 respectively so there is no value with the number actually coming down. They are significant favorites to win the division with a publicly backed Chargers team likely being the only one that will challenge them. Barring any significant injuries, the Chiefs should win their ninth straight AFC West title. As for win totals, after going over eight straight seasons, Kansas City has stayed under in two of the last three, each missing the over by one win. Pass.
Los Angeles Chargers: 5-12 ~ 1-5 AFC West ~ 5-11-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 27
Notable Additions: RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, TE Will Dissly, TE Hayden Hurst, C Bradley Bozeman, DT Poona Ford, LB Denzel Perryman, LB Troy Dye, CB Kristian Fulton
Notable Losses: RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, TE Gerald Everett, C Will Clapp, DT Austin Johnson, LB Eric Kendricks, LB Kenneth Murray, CB Michael Davis
Notable Draft Selections: OT Joe Alt, WR Ladd McConkey, LB Junior Colson, DT Justin Eboigbe, CB Tarheeb Still, CB Cam Hart
The Chargers are one of the most intriguing teams heading into 2024. They have had the talent to make runs at Kansas City but have underachieved by making the playoffs just once in the last five years and that was a disaster, blowing a big lead against Jacksonville. Many blamed the coaching so now we will have a chance to see first-hand as Los Angeles hired Jim Harbaugh, fresh off his National Championship at Michigan, to lead one of the top young quarterbacks who really has not been given a chance. Justin Herbert was banged up last season and ended up missing four games while finishing with a career-low 20 touchdowns. Often proclaimed as one of the best offenses in the league, the Chargers fell off the last two seasons, averaging 33 ypg and 60 ypg less than 2021 and now they are replacing their top three playmakers in Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams. They went through Baltimore to solve the running game with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards while hoping Quentin Johnson and Joshua Palmer can step up outside along with draft pick Ladd McConkey being a sneaky steal. Also, drafting Joe Alt was a curious move with other needs but it made sense as protecting Herbert and keeping him healthy is goal number one. Los Angeles relies on ends Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack to lead their defense that clamped down over the second half of the season outside of that 63-point disaster against the Raiders, allowing 17.1 ppg in seven games around that.
The AFC West is playing the AFC North, which is not easy, but also the NFC South which could add a win or two to teams like the Chargers whose numbers seems inflated with the No. 27 schedule playing into that. The three crossover games are Arizona, Tennessee and New England so a 6-1 record is feasible and finding three wins in the AFC West and North should be more than doable. The Chargers have gone 5-0 to the under the last five years and while this is going to be very public, over 8.5 is the play if you do not mind the juice but a flat 9 can be found. Los Angeles has work to do to gel this offense and they only likely have to worry about Kansas City which is why the +350 to win the division is so low. Again public, but worth a sprinkle.
Las Vegas Raiders: 8-9 ~ 4-2 AFC West ~ 10-5-2 ATS ~ 5-11-1 O/U
Finished Tied For 2nd in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 10
Notable Additions: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Alexander Mattison, TE Harrison Bryant, DT Christian Wilkins
Notable Losses: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Josh Jacobs, FB Jakob Johnson, WR Hunter Renfrow, TE Austin Hooper, OT Jermaine Eluemunor, OT Brandon Parker, G Greg Van Roten, DT John Jenkins, DT Jerry Tillery, CB Amik Robertson
Notable Draft Selections: TE Brock Bowers, C Jackson Powers-Johnson, OT Delmar Glaze, CB Decamerion Richardson, LB Tommy Eichenberg
One of the greatest franchises in the 70s and 80s has not been able to get out of its own way over the last two decades. Since losing to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl XXXVII back in 2002-03, the Raiders have made the playoffs only twice, losing both games in the Wild Card Round and they are now on their 13th different head coach since then with Jack Del Rio and Jon Gruden being the only two to last three years. Antonio Pierce won the players over when stepping into the interim role last year after the firing of Josh McDaniels and he was given the full time job after a solid 5-4 performance. Las Vegas will be breaking in a new quarterback as Gardner Minshew won the starting job over Aiden O’Connell and this is an offense that could struggle. Davante Adams is one of the best receivers in the league but there continued to be trade rumors as he wants out. The other two main options are going to be Jakobi Meyers and first round pick tight end Brock Bowers so there is not a whole lot to be excited about while the running game lost Josh Jacobs and has no suitable replacement. If nothing else, Minshew is fun to watch and will give everything he has but he makes too many mistakes to make them a consistent winner. The defense carried the team last season and nearly gave them a shot to make the postseason. The Raiders finished No. 7 in Defensive EPA and in the nine games under Pierce, they allowed only 16 ppg and added defensive end Christian Wilkins will have to step it up again.
This is going to be another tough team to figure out until we can see how this offense is going to be. We know the defense is going to be really good but there were seven losses last season where the offense scored 17 or fewer points and even great defenses cannot overcome that. Las Vegas is catching the same number as last season which it surpassed and has done so in four of the last five seasons. They got the Rams, Dolphins and Jaguars in their crossover games, the first two on the road, and it is as straight forward of a schedule as there can be with seven road losses and six home wins so there are four swing games that will come into play, home against the Chiefs and the Chargers and at Denver and Tampa Bay. Another pass.
Denver Broncos: 8-9 ~ 3-3 AFC West ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 8-9-0 O/U
Finished Tied For 2nd in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 20
Notable Additions: WR Josh Reynolds, OT Matt Peart, G Calvin Throckmorton, C Sean Mustipher, DT John Franklin-Myers, DT Malcolm Roach, LB Cody Barton, S Brandon Jones
Notable Losses: QB Russell Wilson, WR Jerry Jeudy, OT Cameron Fleming, C Lloyd Cushenberry, LB Josey Jewell, S Justin Simmons, S Kareem Jackson
Notable Draft Selections: QB Bo Nix, DE Jonah Elliss, WR Troy Franklin, CB Kris Abrams-Driane, RB Audric Estime
While it was not a resounding success, Denver rallied from a 1-5 start to win seven of their last 11 games for an 8-9 finish that does seem to being taken too serious from oddsmakers. We are finally seeing a season where Denver is not being overvalued as they usually are because of their name as the Broncos Super Bowl odds are pegging them as one of the worst teams in the NFL. Since winning the Super Bowl in 2015, Denver has not been back to the playoffs and has now had a losing record in six consecutive seasons under four different head coaches so there has not been any sort of culture put into place. Head coach Sean Payton did get his team to rally last season, that is other than quarterback Russell Wilson who eventually got benched and got out of town, moving onto Pittsburgh. Now it will be a rookie running the offense as Bo Nix won the starting job over Jarrett Stidham thanks to a solid preseason but he does not have a true No. 1 to throw to as Cortland Sutton and Marvin Mims looking like his two best options. The offensive line is weak and the running game will rely on Javonte Williams who does not look like he is back to 100 percent. The defense regressed considerably last season as the Broncos finished No. 27 in EPA and No. 29 in yards allowed. While it would be nice to have a stout defense help carry a rookie quarterback until he can find his footing, that is not the case here as they could be worse as starting star safeties Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson are gone.
As mentioned, the odds are not in their favor with low expectations unless you are actually betting on Denver because there are some value numbers but it could be a waste. Also mentioned is how the Broncos have been overvalued based on name and they have gone 0-7-1 to the under the last eight seasons which coincides with that last playoff appearance. They were 8.5 last year and are down to 5.5 this season which is a big drop and the problem is that their winnable games are all early and that is not good with a brand new quarterback and a bad defense. A 4-4 start is possible but unlikely and a 0-9 finish is possible with home games against the Falcons and Colts being the best of the bunch. This team has under written all over them once again.
By Matt Fargo
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Regular Season Win Totals and AFC West/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Over -115 Under -105 ~ AFC West Winner -260 ~ Super Bowl Winner +500
Los Angeles Chargers: 8.5 Over -155 Under +130 ~ AFC West Winner +350 ~ Super Bowl Winner +4,500
Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ AFC West Winner +1,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +10,000
Denver Broncos: 5.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ AFC West Winner +2,200 ~ Super Bowl Winner +30,000
Coaching Changes
Los Angeles Chargers: Brandon Staley/Giff Smith Out ~ Jim Harbaugh In
Las Vegas Raiders: Josh McDaniels Out ~ Antonio Pierce In
Team Previews
Kansas City Chiefs: 15-6 ~ 4-2 AFC West ~ 13-7-1 ATS ~ 7-13-1 O/U
Won AFC West, Won Super Bowl LVIII
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 16
Notable Additions: QB Carson Wentz, WR Marquise Brown, TE Irv Smith
Notable Losses: WR Mecole Hardman, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, OT Donovan Smith, G Nick Allegretti, LB Willie Gay, CB L’Jarius Sneed, S Mike Edwards, P Tommy Townsend
Notable Draft Selections: WR Xavier Worthy, OT Kingsley Suamataia, TE Jared Wiley, S Jaden Hicks, C Hunter Nourzad
Kansas City is coming off its second consecutive Super Bowl victory and third over its last five years and the Chiefs are out to become the first ever Super Bowl three-peat Champion. They have made the playoffs nine consecutive seasons, which includes four Super Bowl appearances, while accumulating double-digit wins in all nine of those campaigns. Additionally, they have been to six consecutive AFC Championship games with the two losses coming by one possession so when the term dynasty is being thrown around, it fits here. Last year was probably the most impressive as the Chiefs had to deal with something they have not had to during this Super Bowl stretch as they were 8-1 at home in the postseason in those first four years with not having to play a road game but won two road games last season at Buffalo and Baltimore. The offense had a down season, easily their worst during this run but the defense picked up the slack as that side had its best results over the last five seasons. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes still showed why he is the best in the league as he had no consistency with his receivers with the exception of Travis Kelce and he will have to figure it out again with a couple more losses while getting Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy. It might be hard to duplicate the defense from last season as the secondary took a big hit with the loss of L'Jarius Sneed but a healthy Chris Jones still gives them one of the best defensive lines in the league.
With Kansas City seeking its unprecedented third straight Super Bowl, the odds are not in their favor simply based on probability because winning in this league is hard but the actual odds are not in their favor either as the Chiefs are +500 after coming into 2022 and 2023 at +1,000 and +600 respectively so there is no value with the number actually coming down. They are significant favorites to win the division with a publicly backed Chargers team likely being the only one that will challenge them. Barring any significant injuries, the Chiefs should win their ninth straight AFC West title. As for win totals, after going over eight straight seasons, Kansas City has stayed under in two of the last three, each missing the over by one win. Pass.
Los Angeles Chargers: 5-12 ~ 1-5 AFC West ~ 5-11-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 27
Notable Additions: RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, TE Will Dissly, TE Hayden Hurst, C Bradley Bozeman, DT Poona Ford, LB Denzel Perryman, LB Troy Dye, CB Kristian Fulton
Notable Losses: RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, TE Gerald Everett, C Will Clapp, DT Austin Johnson, LB Eric Kendricks, LB Kenneth Murray, CB Michael Davis
Notable Draft Selections: OT Joe Alt, WR Ladd McConkey, LB Junior Colson, DT Justin Eboigbe, CB Tarheeb Still, CB Cam Hart
The Chargers are one of the most intriguing teams heading into 2024. They have had the talent to make runs at Kansas City but have underachieved by making the playoffs just once in the last five years and that was a disaster, blowing a big lead against Jacksonville. Many blamed the coaching so now we will have a chance to see first-hand as Los Angeles hired Jim Harbaugh, fresh off his National Championship at Michigan, to lead one of the top young quarterbacks who really has not been given a chance. Justin Herbert was banged up last season and ended up missing four games while finishing with a career-low 20 touchdowns. Often proclaimed as one of the best offenses in the league, the Chargers fell off the last two seasons, averaging 33 ypg and 60 ypg less than 2021 and now they are replacing their top three playmakers in Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams. They went through Baltimore to solve the running game with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards while hoping Quentin Johnson and Joshua Palmer can step up outside along with draft pick Ladd McConkey being a sneaky steal. Also, drafting Joe Alt was a curious move with other needs but it made sense as protecting Herbert and keeping him healthy is goal number one. Los Angeles relies on ends Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack to lead their defense that clamped down over the second half of the season outside of that 63-point disaster against the Raiders, allowing 17.1 ppg in seven games around that.
The AFC West is playing the AFC North, which is not easy, but also the NFC South which could add a win or two to teams like the Chargers whose numbers seems inflated with the No. 27 schedule playing into that. The three crossover games are Arizona, Tennessee and New England so a 6-1 record is feasible and finding three wins in the AFC West and North should be more than doable. The Chargers have gone 5-0 to the under the last five years and while this is going to be very public, over 8.5 is the play if you do not mind the juice but a flat 9 can be found. Los Angeles has work to do to gel this offense and they only likely have to worry about Kansas City which is why the +350 to win the division is so low. Again public, but worth a sprinkle.
Las Vegas Raiders: 8-9 ~ 4-2 AFC West ~ 10-5-2 ATS ~ 5-11-1 O/U
Finished Tied For 2nd in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 10
Notable Additions: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Alexander Mattison, TE Harrison Bryant, DT Christian Wilkins
Notable Losses: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Josh Jacobs, FB Jakob Johnson, WR Hunter Renfrow, TE Austin Hooper, OT Jermaine Eluemunor, OT Brandon Parker, G Greg Van Roten, DT John Jenkins, DT Jerry Tillery, CB Amik Robertson
Notable Draft Selections: TE Brock Bowers, C Jackson Powers-Johnson, OT Delmar Glaze, CB Decamerion Richardson, LB Tommy Eichenberg
One of the greatest franchises in the 70s and 80s has not been able to get out of its own way over the last two decades. Since losing to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl XXXVII back in 2002-03, the Raiders have made the playoffs only twice, losing both games in the Wild Card Round and they are now on their 13th different head coach since then with Jack Del Rio and Jon Gruden being the only two to last three years. Antonio Pierce won the players over when stepping into the interim role last year after the firing of Josh McDaniels and he was given the full time job after a solid 5-4 performance. Las Vegas will be breaking in a new quarterback as Gardner Minshew won the starting job over Aiden O’Connell and this is an offense that could struggle. Davante Adams is one of the best receivers in the league but there continued to be trade rumors as he wants out. The other two main options are going to be Jakobi Meyers and first round pick tight end Brock Bowers so there is not a whole lot to be excited about while the running game lost Josh Jacobs and has no suitable replacement. If nothing else, Minshew is fun to watch and will give everything he has but he makes too many mistakes to make them a consistent winner. The defense carried the team last season and nearly gave them a shot to make the postseason. The Raiders finished No. 7 in Defensive EPA and in the nine games under Pierce, they allowed only 16 ppg and added defensive end Christian Wilkins will have to step it up again.
This is going to be another tough team to figure out until we can see how this offense is going to be. We know the defense is going to be really good but there were seven losses last season where the offense scored 17 or fewer points and even great defenses cannot overcome that. Las Vegas is catching the same number as last season which it surpassed and has done so in four of the last five seasons. They got the Rams, Dolphins and Jaguars in their crossover games, the first two on the road, and it is as straight forward of a schedule as there can be with seven road losses and six home wins so there are four swing games that will come into play, home against the Chiefs and the Chargers and at Denver and Tampa Bay. Another pass.
Denver Broncos: 8-9 ~ 3-3 AFC West ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 8-9-0 O/U
Finished Tied For 2nd in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 20
Notable Additions: WR Josh Reynolds, OT Matt Peart, G Calvin Throckmorton, C Sean Mustipher, DT John Franklin-Myers, DT Malcolm Roach, LB Cody Barton, S Brandon Jones
Notable Losses: QB Russell Wilson, WR Jerry Jeudy, OT Cameron Fleming, C Lloyd Cushenberry, LB Josey Jewell, S Justin Simmons, S Kareem Jackson
Notable Draft Selections: QB Bo Nix, DE Jonah Elliss, WR Troy Franklin, CB Kris Abrams-Driane, RB Audric Estime
While it was not a resounding success, Denver rallied from a 1-5 start to win seven of their last 11 games for an 8-9 finish that does seem to being taken too serious from oddsmakers. We are finally seeing a season where Denver is not being overvalued as they usually are because of their name as the Broncos Super Bowl odds are pegging them as one of the worst teams in the NFL. Since winning the Super Bowl in 2015, Denver has not been back to the playoffs and has now had a losing record in six consecutive seasons under four different head coaches so there has not been any sort of culture put into place. Head coach Sean Payton did get his team to rally last season, that is other than quarterback Russell Wilson who eventually got benched and got out of town, moving onto Pittsburgh. Now it will be a rookie running the offense as Bo Nix won the starting job over Jarrett Stidham thanks to a solid preseason but he does not have a true No. 1 to throw to as Cortland Sutton and Marvin Mims looking like his two best options. The offensive line is weak and the running game will rely on Javonte Williams who does not look like he is back to 100 percent. The defense regressed considerably last season as the Broncos finished No. 27 in EPA and No. 29 in yards allowed. While it would be nice to have a stout defense help carry a rookie quarterback until he can find his footing, that is not the case here as they could be worse as starting star safeties Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson are gone.
As mentioned, the odds are not in their favor with low expectations unless you are actually betting on Denver because there are some value numbers but it could be a waste. Also mentioned is how the Broncos have been overvalued based on name and they have gone 0-7-1 to the under the last eight seasons which coincides with that last playoff appearance. They were 8.5 last year and are down to 5.5 this season which is a big drop and the problem is that their winnable games are all early and that is not good with a brand new quarterback and a bad defense. A 4-4 start is possible but unlikely and a 0-9 finish is possible with home games against the Falcons and Colts being the best of the bunch. This team has under written all over them once again.
Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Free Pick 9-9-24
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Matt Fargo Sports Kansas City +157
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Matt Fargo Sports
MLB 09/09 7:05 PM Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees
PICK: Kansas City Royals 157
s is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our Monday Free Play. Kansas City suffered through a seven-game losing streak but salvaged the series finale against Cleveland and then swept the Twins over the weekend to take a 2.5-game lead over Minnesota for the No. 2 spot in the American League Wild Card. The pitching put up its best four-game stretch during this run as Kansas City allowed a total of four runs against two very solid offenses and now it is tested again and we are catching an overinflated number which is always the case based on the opponent. The Yankees were unable to complete the sweep in Chicago as they lost to the Cubs 2-1 on Sunday with the pitching putting on a clinic as they allowed only two runs in the three-game set after allowing 41 runs in their previous five games and we can foresee a reversion to that. While the pitching was lights out over the weekend, the offense managed only six runs and while it is still one of the best in baseball, they have a tougher than anticipated matchup tonight despite what the number may be saying. Brady Singer had a great 2022 season as he posted a 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 27 games but he regressed considerably last season as he had a 5.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 29 starts but he has gotten his command back and will be an integral part in the Royals postseason. He is coming off a pair of solid outings against the Guardians and Astros to give him a 3.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 28 starts but he has not been able to get many wins including recently as Kansas City has gone 1-5 in his last six games with run support the issue with just 1.6 rpg backing him. Carlos Rodon got off to a good start this season but has been on the decline as he has posted a 5.60 ERA since June 15 which is No. 76 among 77 quality starters. He does have one of the best K% over this stretch but also has one of the worst BB% which negate each other and that has led to his 1.41 WHIP. He too has been hurt by run support as the offense has given him just 2.3 rpg over his last four outings. Play (957) Kansas City Royals
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Matt Fargo Sports Kansas City +157
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MLB 09/09 7:05 PM Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees
PICK: Kansas City Royals 157
s is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our Monday Free Play. Kansas City suffered through a seven-game losing streak but salvaged the series finale against Cleveland and then swept the Twins over the weekend to take a 2.5-game lead over Minnesota for the No. 2 spot in the American League Wild Card. The pitching put up its best four-game stretch during this run as Kansas City allowed a total of four runs against two very solid offenses and now it is tested again and we are catching an overinflated number which is always the case based on the opponent. The Yankees were unable to complete the sweep in Chicago as they lost to the Cubs 2-1 on Sunday with the pitching putting on a clinic as they allowed only two runs in the three-game set after allowing 41 runs in their previous five games and we can foresee a reversion to that. While the pitching was lights out over the weekend, the offense managed only six runs and while it is still one of the best in baseball, they have a tougher than anticipated matchup tonight despite what the number may be saying. Brady Singer had a great 2022 season as he posted a 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 27 games but he regressed considerably last season as he had a 5.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 29 starts but he has gotten his command back and will be an integral part in the Royals postseason. He is coming off a pair of solid outings against the Guardians and Astros to give him a 3.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 28 starts but he has not been able to get many wins including recently as Kansas City has gone 1-5 in his last six games with run support the issue with just 1.6 rpg backing him. Carlos Rodon got off to a good start this season but has been on the decline as he has posted a 5.60 ERA since June 15 which is No. 76 among 77 quality starters. He does have one of the best K% over this stretch but also has one of the worst BB% which negate each other and that has led to his 1.41 WHIP. He too has been hurt by run support as the offense has given him just 2.3 rpg over his last four outings. Play (957) Kansas City Royals
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Texas vs Michigan Free Pick 9-7-24
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Matt Fargo Sports Michigan +7
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NCAAF 09/07 12:00 PM Texas vs Michigan
PICK: Michigan 7
This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our Saturday Free Play. There are always overreactions from week to week in football and that takes place between Week One and Week Two especially in college football. We are seeing it with this game based on results from the opening week as Texas opened as the favorite when the line was posted early this summer as part of the game of the year card and it stayed at -3.5 through last Saturday but the line has now more than doubled after just one game from each side. Texas steamrolled Colorado St. while Michigan beat Fresno St. by only 20 points but this is exactly what the Wolverines did last season, letting their three inferior nonconference opponents still around with their own offense scoring no more than 35 points, similar to the 30 they scored against Fresno St. and this all done for a reason as to not show too much and they basically gave Texas nothing. Michigan wants to play slow which it did all of last season, using its running game to burn clock and keep the defense fresh. The Longhorns were able to go through the motions as well but Michigan already has tape and has a good idea what to expect. Texas lost running back CJ Baxter before the season, so Jaydon Blue and Jerrick Gibson have to try and make up for that lost production but neither are close to Baxter and will be facing a great run defense. The Wolverines held Fresno St. to just nine rushing yards and while the Longhorns present a bigger challenge, they are going to make quarterback Quinn Ewers beat them and we are not really sure that he can. He had solid top line numbers last season and he has a very high floor but according to PFF, his grades did not even rank him in their PFF College 101 that included 12 quarterbacks, seven of which are back playing in 2024. With Baxter, he can implement a lot of play action, which is where he thrives, but he does not have that luxury. Texas proved it is a great team with a 52-0 win but the early overreaction is against them here. Play (320) Michigan Wolverines
A MASSIVE Weekend in football starts today! We get things started Saturday in College Football as Fargo has 11 Premium Winners highlighted by his Big 10 Game of the Year and SEC Game of the Month and it all gets started with Three 12:00 ET kickoffs! The NFL is off to a 2-0 start and over the last 2+ NFL Regular Seasons, Fargo is 126-95-3 (57 percent) and brought home +$21,790! FOUR Premium Sunday Winners and MNF Top Play.
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NCAAF 09/07 12:00 PM Texas vs Michigan
PICK: Michigan 7
This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our Saturday Free Play. There are always overreactions from week to week in football and that takes place between Week One and Week Two especially in college football. We are seeing it with this game based on results from the opening week as Texas opened as the favorite when the line was posted early this summer as part of the game of the year card and it stayed at -3.5 through last Saturday but the line has now more than doubled after just one game from each side. Texas steamrolled Colorado St. while Michigan beat Fresno St. by only 20 points but this is exactly what the Wolverines did last season, letting their three inferior nonconference opponents still around with their own offense scoring no more than 35 points, similar to the 30 they scored against Fresno St. and this all done for a reason as to not show too much and they basically gave Texas nothing. Michigan wants to play slow which it did all of last season, using its running game to burn clock and keep the defense fresh. The Longhorns were able to go through the motions as well but Michigan already has tape and has a good idea what to expect. Texas lost running back CJ Baxter before the season, so Jaydon Blue and Jerrick Gibson have to try and make up for that lost production but neither are close to Baxter and will be facing a great run defense. The Wolverines held Fresno St. to just nine rushing yards and while the Longhorns present a bigger challenge, they are going to make quarterback Quinn Ewers beat them and we are not really sure that he can. He had solid top line numbers last season and he has a very high floor but according to PFF, his grades did not even rank him in their PFF College 101 that included 12 quarterbacks, seven of which are back playing in 2024. With Baxter, he can implement a lot of play action, which is where he thrives, but he does not have that luxury. Texas proved it is a great team with a 52-0 win but the early overreaction is against them here. Play (320) Michigan Wolverines
A MASSIVE Weekend in football starts today! We get things started Saturday in College Football as Fargo has 11 Premium Winners highlighted by his Big 10 Game of the Year and SEC Game of the Month and it all gets started with Three 12:00 ET kickoffs! The NFL is off to a 2-0 start and over the last 2+ NFL Regular Seasons, Fargo is 126-95-3 (57 percent) and brought home +$21,790! FOUR Premium Sunday Winners and MNF Top Play.
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Seattle Mariner vs St. Louis Cardinals 9-6-24
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Matt Fargo Sports St. Louis Cardinals -108
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MLB 09/06 8:15 PM Seattle Mariners vs St Louis Cardinals
PICK: St Louis Cardinals -108
s is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our Friday Free Play. St. Louis took two of three against both the Yankees and Brewers to complete a 4-2 roadtrip which got it to two games over .500 keeping its slim playoff hopes alive. The Cardinals are five games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League and return home where they are 36-32 and laying a small price in this series opener. A 1-7 run in mid-August could have derailed them but the bats have come to life as since August 21, St. Louis has a .759 OPS which is No. 9 in baseball to go along with a 112 wRC+ which is also No. 9. Seattle had lost four straight games but was able to salvage the final two games in Oakland to get back over .500. The Mariners have been awful on the road at 30-42 and are still overpriced because of the pitching as this offense, despite 22 runs the past two games, remains a liability. Seattle is ahead of only the Pirates, Marlins and White Sox in wOBA at .297 while its .672 OPS is also ahead of just those three teams and while they are actually hitting better on the road, the pitching has been the issue away from Seattle. Bryce Miller has put together a solid five-game run where he has posted a 1.88 ERA and while three of those were on the road, two came against two horrible offenses in the Tigers and Angels and while the third was against the Dodgers, he lasted only four innings while laboring through 92 pitches. He has had an excellent second half but his road numbers are the concern as he has a 4.82 ERA compared to a 2.03 ERA at home with the home runs being the issue with a 15-5 split. Erick Fedde has not been as consistent with St. Louis as he was with the White Sox before getting traded but it comes down to the home/road splits with him as well. He has allowed four runs or more in three of his seven starts with the Cardinals but all of those were on the road where his ERA is 5.64 but he has been much better at home with a 3.68 ERA. Overall, he has an above average BB% while his .227 BAA is No. 21 of 63 qualified starters. Play (928) St. Louis Cardinals
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Matt Fargo Sports St. Louis Cardinals -108
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MLB 09/06 8:15 PM Seattle Mariners vs St Louis Cardinals
PICK: St Louis Cardinals -108
s is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our Friday Free Play. St. Louis took two of three against both the Yankees and Brewers to complete a 4-2 roadtrip which got it to two games over .500 keeping its slim playoff hopes alive. The Cardinals are five games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League and return home where they are 36-32 and laying a small price in this series opener. A 1-7 run in mid-August could have derailed them but the bats have come to life as since August 21, St. Louis has a .759 OPS which is No. 9 in baseball to go along with a 112 wRC+ which is also No. 9. Seattle had lost four straight games but was able to salvage the final two games in Oakland to get back over .500. The Mariners have been awful on the road at 30-42 and are still overpriced because of the pitching as this offense, despite 22 runs the past two games, remains a liability. Seattle is ahead of only the Pirates, Marlins and White Sox in wOBA at .297 while its .672 OPS is also ahead of just those three teams and while they are actually hitting better on the road, the pitching has been the issue away from Seattle. Bryce Miller has put together a solid five-game run where he has posted a 1.88 ERA and while three of those were on the road, two came against two horrible offenses in the Tigers and Angels and while the third was against the Dodgers, he lasted only four innings while laboring through 92 pitches. He has had an excellent second half but his road numbers are the concern as he has a 4.82 ERA compared to a 2.03 ERA at home with the home runs being the issue with a 15-5 split. Erick Fedde has not been as consistent with St. Louis as he was with the White Sox before getting traded but it comes down to the home/road splits with him as well. He has allowed four runs or more in three of his seven starts with the Cardinals but all of those were on the road where his ERA is 5.64 but he has been much better at home with a 3.68 ERA. Overall, he has an above average BB% while his .227 BAA is No. 21 of 63 qualified starters. Play (928) St. Louis Cardinals
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Free Pick 9-5-24
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Matt Fargo Sports Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
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MLB 09/05 6:40 PM Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
s is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RL for our Thursday Free Play. Miami did pick up the win last night and while it counts as a victory as a left-handed starter, they struggled against McKenzie Gore and their of their three runs against the bullpen, only one was against a lefty. Different night same deal. It is a steeper price but for a good reason and we are going value with the runline. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 4.0 rpg since July 28 and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .293 wOBA, .670 OPS and a .133 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 51 of 91 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been money the other way as they are 10-39 while averaging 3.1 rpg with a .228 average and a .639 OPS, third and second worst in the league respectively and of those 39 losses, 34 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 3.8 rpg. The Phillies took both games in Toronto and have won four straight to remain seven games ahead of the Braves in the National League East. They have also won four straight games on the road which gets them to four games over .500 on the highway which is surprisingly low considering their .257 average is sixth best in baseball while sitting No. 10 in wOBA, wRC+ and OPS. The pitching has been ever better as Philadelphia is No. 2 in xFIP and No. 5 in K-BB% but the record issue is that they are 4-1 on the road in one run games. The recent form for Ranger Suarez has not been great as he has allowed four runs or more in four of his last six starts but three of those were at home where he does have a solid 3.26 ERA and 1.15 WHIP but he has been better on the road with a 2.79 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Of 81 pitchers that have logged at least 60 road innings, that ERA is No. 10 and the WHIP in No. 6 while his 2.99 xFIP in No. 5. One of those recent poor home starts came against Miami of all teams as he allowed a season-high six runs and do not think he has forgotten that. He blanked the Marlins in Miami over seven innings prior to that. Adam Oller gets the ball for Miami and after a rough Major League debut, he has settle down in his last two starts, allowing one run over 11.2 combined innings. However, those were against the Cubs and Giants whose offenses do not come close to matching that of the Phillies nor do they come close to Arizona, the team that tagged him for five runs in 4.2 innings in that opener. Play (953) Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 Runs
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Matt Fargo Sports Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
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MLB 09/05 6:40 PM Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
s is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RL for our Thursday Free Play. Miami did pick up the win last night and while it counts as a victory as a left-handed starter, they struggled against McKenzie Gore and their of their three runs against the bullpen, only one was against a lefty. Different night same deal. It is a steeper price but for a good reason and we are going value with the runline. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 4.0 rpg since July 28 and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .293 wOBA, .670 OPS and a .133 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 51 of 91 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been money the other way as they are 10-39 while averaging 3.1 rpg with a .228 average and a .639 OPS, third and second worst in the league respectively and of those 39 losses, 34 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 3.8 rpg. The Phillies took both games in Toronto and have won four straight to remain seven games ahead of the Braves in the National League East. They have also won four straight games on the road which gets them to four games over .500 on the highway which is surprisingly low considering their .257 average is sixth best in baseball while sitting No. 10 in wOBA, wRC+ and OPS. The pitching has been ever better as Philadelphia is No. 2 in xFIP and No. 5 in K-BB% but the record issue is that they are 4-1 on the road in one run games. The recent form for Ranger Suarez has not been great as he has allowed four runs or more in four of his last six starts but three of those were at home where he does have a solid 3.26 ERA and 1.15 WHIP but he has been better on the road with a 2.79 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Of 81 pitchers that have logged at least 60 road innings, that ERA is No. 10 and the WHIP in No. 6 while his 2.99 xFIP in No. 5. One of those recent poor home starts came against Miami of all teams as he allowed a season-high six runs and do not think he has forgotten that. He blanked the Marlins in Miami over seven innings prior to that. Adam Oller gets the ball for Miami and after a rough Major League debut, he has settle down in his last two starts, allowing one run over 11.2 combined innings. However, those were against the Cubs and Giants whose offenses do not come close to matching that of the Phillies nor do they come close to Arizona, the team that tagged him for five runs in 4.2 innings in that opener. Play (953) Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 Runs
MLB +$4,950 L53 Plays and Thursday is a day not to miss as Fargo has his National League Game of the Year! Game of the Years plays are a PERFECT 5-0 YTD! Over the last Two NFL Regular Seasons, he is 124-95-3 (57 percent) and brought home +$19,790! NFL Thursday-Friday Week 1 posted with Sunday full card on the way!
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Lou Lacerda $1000.00
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Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Free Pick 9-3-24
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Matt Fargo Sports Tampa Bay Rays -108
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MLB 09/03 6:50 PM Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays -108
s is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our Tuesday Free Play. It has been a lost season for Tampa Bay which has arguably the best young rotation in baseball when healthy but 2024 has not been a season where healthy was in play. The Rays are using the final month of the season to get the young guns some work to keep them limber but also make sure there are no setbacks. Tampa Bay has dropped two straight and six of its last eight games and it has been the offense which has been the letdown, averaging 2.7 rpg in those six losses. Minnesota has won two straight games following a horrible end to August where they went 3-9 over their final 12 games but have been able to stay afloat as the Guardians and Royals have also had their own recent struggles. The Twins are 3.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central and they have a big series against the Royals on deck with their pitching having taken a slight plunge of late along with the offense which we expect to struggle tonight. One of the young arms for Tampa Bay that it hopes to have at 100 percent next season is Jeffrey Springs who got into the rotation is 2022 and put up a 2.46 ERA in 33 games including 25 starts. He then went through Tommy John surgery and has made only nine starts the last two seasons but he is on the road to recovery. In his last start, he went five innings for the fourth time and the fourth in his past five games as he struck out a season-high nine batters and allowed just a pair of walks and a hit. Five innings is likely his max and he has a good bullpen behind him. David Festa is a solid young arm for the Twins and he has been pitching well after a rocky start as he has a 3.06 ERA since late July in six starts and one relief appearance but that is over just 32.1 innings and has yet to hit 90 pitches. Normally, this is not an issue with the Twins having a solid bullpen but tonight they are in a tough spot as the Twins are shorthanded as Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Cole Sands all worked on Sunday and Monday with those three having a collective 2.78 ERA over 168.1 innings. Play (964) Tampa Bay Rays
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Matt Fargo Sports Tampa Bay Rays -108
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MLB 09/03 6:50 PM Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays -108
s is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our Tuesday Free Play. It has been a lost season for Tampa Bay which has arguably the best young rotation in baseball when healthy but 2024 has not been a season where healthy was in play. The Rays are using the final month of the season to get the young guns some work to keep them limber but also make sure there are no setbacks. Tampa Bay has dropped two straight and six of its last eight games and it has been the offense which has been the letdown, averaging 2.7 rpg in those six losses. Minnesota has won two straight games following a horrible end to August where they went 3-9 over their final 12 games but have been able to stay afloat as the Guardians and Royals have also had their own recent struggles. The Twins are 3.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central and they have a big series against the Royals on deck with their pitching having taken a slight plunge of late along with the offense which we expect to struggle tonight. One of the young arms for Tampa Bay that it hopes to have at 100 percent next season is Jeffrey Springs who got into the rotation is 2022 and put up a 2.46 ERA in 33 games including 25 starts. He then went through Tommy John surgery and has made only nine starts the last two seasons but he is on the road to recovery. In his last start, he went five innings for the fourth time and the fourth in his past five games as he struck out a season-high nine batters and allowed just a pair of walks and a hit. Five innings is likely his max and he has a good bullpen behind him. David Festa is a solid young arm for the Twins and he has been pitching well after a rocky start as he has a 3.06 ERA since late July in six starts and one relief appearance but that is over just 32.1 innings and has yet to hit 90 pitches. Normally, this is not an issue with the Twins having a solid bullpen but tonight they are in a tough spot as the Twins are shorthanded as Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Cole Sands all worked on Sunday and Monday with those three having a collective 2.78 ERA over 168.1 innings. Play (964) Tampa Bay Rays
CFB 15-8 run going back to last year and Fargo has started posting his Week Two plays! MLB 25-22 +$6,950 L47! 3-0 Tuesday Triple Play! NFL +$72,010 in profits L12 years! Week 1 is being posted! CFL is on a 10-6 Run!
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Brian Bitler $950.00
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Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Prediction 9-2-24
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Matt Fargo Sports San Diego Padres -1.5
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MLB 09/02 6:40 PM Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres -1.5
s is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES RL for our Monday Free Play. Detroit had dropped two straight games following a six-game winning streak but those six wins were against the White Sox and Angels, the two worst teams in the American League. The Tigers got another gem from Skubal on Saturday who has all but locked up the American League Cy Young and yesterday made it eight wins over their last 10 games. Detroit is now two games over .500 and trails Minnesota and Kansas City by five games for that final Wild Card spot and that might be too far back at this point with three teams to pass. San Diego took two of three in Tampa Bay to make it a 4-3 roadtrip and with the Dodgers loss yesterday, the Padres are now five games back in the National League West, tied with Arizona. Those two sit atop the National League Wild Card standings, three games ahead of the Braves. San Diego is back home where it is 37-32 including 11-4 over its last 15 games with the offense that is surging yet struggles in four of its last five games from the recent roadtrip. Ty Madden was supposed to get the start yesterday but the Tigers elected to go with Beau Brieske in a bullpen game and they got a solid effort from Brant Hurter. Madden will be making his second start following a very solid Major League debut as he allowed one earned run on four hits and three walks while striking out just two. However, that came against the hapless White Sox so he had a dream opener but now things get a lot tougher. Joe Musgrove has made four starts since coming back from injury and he is pitching great with a 1.66 ERA and he is starting to get stretched out as he is coming off a 94-pitch effort, his highest thus far. He has another good matchup here against a bad offense. He has not allowed an earned run in his two home starts since his return and he will continue his success here on Monday with the value taking the runline in what should be a comfortable win. Play (920) San Diego Padres -1.5 Runs
CFB 15-7 run going back to last year and extended on Monday with the ACC Game of the Month! MLB 24-20 +$7,580 L44! 3-0 Monday Triple Play! NFL +$72,010 in profits L12 years! Week 1 posted soon! CFL is on a 10-6 Run!
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Matt Fargo Sports San Diego Padres -1.5
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MLB 09/02 6:40 PM Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres -1.5
s is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES RL for our Monday Free Play. Detroit had dropped two straight games following a six-game winning streak but those six wins were against the White Sox and Angels, the two worst teams in the American League. The Tigers got another gem from Skubal on Saturday who has all but locked up the American League Cy Young and yesterday made it eight wins over their last 10 games. Detroit is now two games over .500 and trails Minnesota and Kansas City by five games for that final Wild Card spot and that might be too far back at this point with three teams to pass. San Diego took two of three in Tampa Bay to make it a 4-3 roadtrip and with the Dodgers loss yesterday, the Padres are now five games back in the National League West, tied with Arizona. Those two sit atop the National League Wild Card standings, three games ahead of the Braves. San Diego is back home where it is 37-32 including 11-4 over its last 15 games with the offense that is surging yet struggles in four of its last five games from the recent roadtrip. Ty Madden was supposed to get the start yesterday but the Tigers elected to go with Beau Brieske in a bullpen game and they got a solid effort from Brant Hurter. Madden will be making his second start following a very solid Major League debut as he allowed one earned run on four hits and three walks while striking out just two. However, that came against the hapless White Sox so he had a dream opener but now things get a lot tougher. Joe Musgrove has made four starts since coming back from injury and he is pitching great with a 1.66 ERA and he is starting to get stretched out as he is coming off a 94-pitch effort, his highest thus far. He has another good matchup here against a bad offense. He has not allowed an earned run in his two home starts since his return and he will continue his success here on Monday with the value taking the runline in what should be a comfortable win. Play (920) San Diego Padres -1.5 Runs
CFB 15-7 run going back to last year and extended on Monday with the ACC Game of the Month! MLB 24-20 +$7,580 L44! 3-0 Monday Triple Play! NFL +$72,010 in profits L12 years! Week 1 posted soon! CFL is on a 10-6 Run!
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2024 AFC North Overview and Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
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Regular Season Win Totals and AFC North/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Baltimore Ravens: 10.5 Over -120 Under +100~ AFC North Winner +145 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,000
Cincinnati Bengals: 10.5 Over -125 Under +100 ~ AFC North Winner +140 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,300
Cleveland Browns: 8.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ AFC North Winner +600 ~ Super Bowl Winner +4,000
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Over +120 Under -145 ~ AFC North Winner +800 ~ Super Bowl Winner +5,000
Coaching Changes
None
Team Previews
Baltimore Ravens: 14-5 ~ 3-3 AFC North ~ 12-7-0 ATS ~ 8-10-1 O/U
Won AFC North, Lost in AFC Championship
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 2
Notable Additions: RB Derrick Henry, OT Josh Jones, LB Chris Board
Notable Losses: QB Tyler Huntley, RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR Devin Duvernay, OT Morgan Moses, G Kevin Zeitler, G John Simpson, DE Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB Tyus Bowser, LB Patrick Queen, CB Ronald Darby, CB Rock Ya-Sin, S Geno Stone
Notable Draft Selections: CB Nate Wiggins, OT Roger Rosengarten, DE Adisa Isaac, WR Deonvtez Walker, CB T.J. Tampa
Baltimore gained the No. 1 Seed in the AFC last season as it put together an impressive 13-3 record before dropping their meaningless Week 17 game where they rested most starters. The three meaningful losses were by a combined 12 points and they rolled into the Divisional Round of the playoffs with a blowout win over Houston before losing to Kansas City in the AFC Championship as they committed three turnovers, two in the redzone. Despite going through a fairly big overhaul, the Ravens have one of the best rosters in the league led by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson who came into camp in the best shape of his career. There are issues though as they have to replace three offensive linemen which is significant in this run-first offense that also lost both top running backs. They signed Derrick Henry but he is on the other side of his career. There are also a number of changes along the line on defense but there has been depth there and with a secondary that remains mostly intact, the No. 2 ranked defense in EPA will be fine. While they have the second toughest schedule in the NFL based on opponent win percentage from last season, the Ravens have the No. 1 Net Rest advantage as they get 16 more days of rest than their opponents (in contrast, the 49ers have the worst at -21 days). The slate is tough early on with four of their first five games against Kansas City, Dallas, Buffalo and Cincinnati, all of which are in the top ten in Super Bowl odds.
The 10.5 wins look to be spot on as we see about 12 games that are swing games so going just 6-6 in those will give them the over but in all actuality, the Ravens should win more than those as we are counting all division games in that mix. The net rest edge is a huge advantage as well as they caught a break with the condensed grouping of some schedules is affecting a lot of teams. The Ravens are not the favorites to win the AFC North which is based on their schedule and personnel changes but they will be right there although there is no value on this number after coming in at +220 last season. Barring significant injury, getting to and winning the Super Bowl is in play but as is the case again, the AFC is loaded and wide open.
Cincinnati Bengals: 9-8 ~ 1-5 AFC North ~ 7-8-2 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC North, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 17
Notable Additions: RB Zack Moss, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, DT Sheldon Rankins, S Geno Stone, S Vonn Bell
Notable Losses: RB Joe Mixon, WR Tyler Boyd, TE Irv Smith, OT Jonah Williams, DT D.J. Reader, CB Chidobe Awuzie, S Nick Scott
Notable Draft Selections: OT Amarius Mims, DT Kris Jenkins, WR Jermaine Burton, NT McKinnley Jackson, TE Erick All, CB Josh Newton
The Bengals had a trying 2023 season but somehow were still in the playoff mix at 8-6 but back-to-back losses at Pittsburgh and Kansas City did them in yet a 9-8 finish was still impressive. It is safe to say the success of Cincinnati revolves around the health of quarterback Joe Burrow. The Bengals went 5-5 in games he played but four of those losses were when he was not healthy, three with his calf injury and the final one when he hurt his wrist against Baltimore. Keeping him upright is of the utmost importance and after allowing 50 sacks last season, the offensive line has been upgraded with Trent Brown and draft pick Amarius Mims. Team veterans Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd are gone but there should be no drop-off in either unit. While a lot of the blame for missing the playoffs was because Burrow was rarely 100 percent, the defense has to take most, if not all of the blame. The Bengals were No. 28 in Defensive EPA including No. 29 against the run and No. 25 against the pass. There have been changes along the line and in the secondary but will it be enough? The first half of the schedule is a must for a quick start as they face five teams that went a combined 24-61 and two of their toughest games against Baltimore and Philadelphia are both at home. Five of the last eight games are on the road.
The Bengals do have slightly higher odds across the board to win the AFC North, AFC and Super Bowl from last season yet their regular season win total is higher than it was in 2023. That might not make much sense but the makeup of this team justifies it. The schedule is backloaded so if Cincinnati gets off to a hot start which it should, it can use that momentum to steal some games in the second half so going over the win total is conceivable as is winning the AFC North. The makeup of this team refers to the fact the Bengals are awful on defense without making enough improvement and they will not be able to make a playoff run without a potent defense so making any move on winning the conference or the Super Bowl seems a stretch.
Cleveland Browns: 11-7 ~ 3-3 AFC North ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 11-6-1 O/U
Finished 2nd in the AFC North, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 1
Notable Additions: QB Jameis Winston, QB Tyler Huntley, RB Nyheim Hines, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Jerry Jeudy, OT Hakeem Adeniji, DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Devin Bush, CB Tony Brown
Notable Losses: QB Joe Flacco, RB Kareem Hunt, TE Harrison Bryant, C Nick Harris, DT Shelby Harris, DT Jordan Elliott, LB Anthony Walker, LB Sione Takitaki, S Duron Harmon
Notable Draft Selections: DT Michael Hall, G Zak Zinter
Cleveland was in the same boat last season as Cincinnati as it had quarterback issues but the difference between the Browns and Bengals was that the Browns had a defense, actually, one of the best in the league. It did not do them any good in the playoffs as they were bounced by Houston in a blowout but going 11-7 possibly gives them a lot to look forward to. No one saw Joe Flacco coming from his couch to take the Browns into the postseason but now it is time for Deshawn Watson to show his worth. Suspensions and injuries have limited him to 11 games in Cleveland but only four of those resulted in a passer rating of 90 or higher so he needs to revert to his time in Houston. The offense was also able to overcome the loss of running back Nick Chubb to have an average running game but he will not be ready to start the season so the signings of Nyheim Hines and D'Onta Foreman is a good temporary fix. The defense should be just as good with the only significant loss being linebacker Anthony Walker. The offense has a chance to come together early as after the opener at home against Dallas, the Browns face the Jaguars, Giants, Raiders and Commanders in consecutive weeks although three of those are on the road and then 10 of the last 12 games are against legitimate playoff teams.
Looking at this schedule makes it hard to find nine wins as there are only a few sure wins with numerous swing games, a very tough division and crossover games against the Cowboys, Eagles, Chargers and Chiefs. For a team that finished with 11 wins and now having an 8.5 number put on them and not having much change going into this season shows the oddsmakers know this team overachieved so taking the under at plus money is the better option based on this slate and with the injury prone Watson under center with a turnover machine as his backup. That being said, there is no value on the division number and this is not a Super Bowl ready team and while missing the playoffs is juiced at -175, it like the safe bet.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-8 ~ 5-1 AFC North ~ 10-8-0 ATS ~ 7-11-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the AFC North, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 3
Notable Additions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, QB Kyle Allen, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Van Jefferson, WR Quez Watkins, DT Dean Lowry, LB Patrick Queen, CB Donte Jackson, S DeShon Elliott, P Cameron Johnston
Notable Losses: QB Kenny Pickett, QB Mason Rudolph, WR Diontae Johnson, C Mason Cole, DT Armon Watts, OLB Markus Golden, LB Kwon Alexander, LB Blake Martinez, CB Levi Wallace, CB Chandon Sullivan, CB James Pierre, S Patrick Peterson, S Keanu Neal
Notable Draft Selections: OT Troy Fautanu, C Zach Frazier, WR Roman Wilson, LB Payton Wilson, C Mason McCormick
The Steelers came away with another winning season to sneak into the playoffs but they were no match for Buffalo in the Wild Card Round. You have to go all the way back to 2003 to find a losing record and head coach Mike Tomlin owns a run of 17 straight seasons at .500 or above. There have been three Super Bowls including two wins, with Tomlin going 1-1, but they have not made it since 2010 and this is likely not the year. Pittsburgh is a totally different team on offense from the start of last season, from offensive coordinator right down to the quarterback room. The Kenny Pickett experiment did not work out and he is out along with Mason Rudolph and they brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields and neither have shown much the last couple years to prove to turn around an offense that was No. 23 in Passing EPA last season. They will again rely on the running game with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The defense once again was solid and it all revolves around T.J. Watt as Pittsburgh was 8-2 when he played and 1-6 when he did not but it needs to figure out to succeed around him as while his 19 sacks were outstanding, only one other player had more than four sacks. A big addition is linebacker Patrick Queen coming over from the division rival Ravens and the secondary improved with Donte Jackson and DeShon Elliott coming over from Carolina and Miami respectively to compliment Joey Porter, Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick. But it all comes down to Watt staying healthy.
Since 2004, Pittsburgh has been an over machine. It is 14-6 to the over and making that even more impressive is their lowest preseason win total was 7.5 twice and four of the six under wins were when they had a double-digit win total. The Steelers have cashed the over in 11 of 13 seasons when it is single digits. Does the train keep rolling or is it time to deboard? Pittsburgh has the most bizarre schedule as its first nine games are against non-vision foes and seven of those are winnable but they cannot slip up as Kansas City and Philadelphia are wrapped around the six division games in the final eight. There are just so many unknowns to make a speculation of the long term performance of this team so looking at in-season odds is the way go.
By Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/
Regular Season Win Totals and AFC North/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Baltimore Ravens: 10.5 Over -120 Under +100~ AFC North Winner +145 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,000
Cincinnati Bengals: 10.5 Over -125 Under +100 ~ AFC North Winner +140 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,300
Cleveland Browns: 8.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ AFC North Winner +600 ~ Super Bowl Winner +4,000
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Over +120 Under -145 ~ AFC North Winner +800 ~ Super Bowl Winner +5,000
Coaching Changes
None
Team Previews
Baltimore Ravens: 14-5 ~ 3-3 AFC North ~ 12-7-0 ATS ~ 8-10-1 O/U
Won AFC North, Lost in AFC Championship
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 2
Notable Additions: RB Derrick Henry, OT Josh Jones, LB Chris Board
Notable Losses: QB Tyler Huntley, RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR Devin Duvernay, OT Morgan Moses, G Kevin Zeitler, G John Simpson, DE Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB Tyus Bowser, LB Patrick Queen, CB Ronald Darby, CB Rock Ya-Sin, S Geno Stone
Notable Draft Selections: CB Nate Wiggins, OT Roger Rosengarten, DE Adisa Isaac, WR Deonvtez Walker, CB T.J. Tampa
Baltimore gained the No. 1 Seed in the AFC last season as it put together an impressive 13-3 record before dropping their meaningless Week 17 game where they rested most starters. The three meaningful losses were by a combined 12 points and they rolled into the Divisional Round of the playoffs with a blowout win over Houston before losing to Kansas City in the AFC Championship as they committed three turnovers, two in the redzone. Despite going through a fairly big overhaul, the Ravens have one of the best rosters in the league led by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson who came into camp in the best shape of his career. There are issues though as they have to replace three offensive linemen which is significant in this run-first offense that also lost both top running backs. They signed Derrick Henry but he is on the other side of his career. There are also a number of changes along the line on defense but there has been depth there and with a secondary that remains mostly intact, the No. 2 ranked defense in EPA will be fine. While they have the second toughest schedule in the NFL based on opponent win percentage from last season, the Ravens have the No. 1 Net Rest advantage as they get 16 more days of rest than their opponents (in contrast, the 49ers have the worst at -21 days). The slate is tough early on with four of their first five games against Kansas City, Dallas, Buffalo and Cincinnati, all of which are in the top ten in Super Bowl odds.
The 10.5 wins look to be spot on as we see about 12 games that are swing games so going just 6-6 in those will give them the over but in all actuality, the Ravens should win more than those as we are counting all division games in that mix. The net rest edge is a huge advantage as well as they caught a break with the condensed grouping of some schedules is affecting a lot of teams. The Ravens are not the favorites to win the AFC North which is based on their schedule and personnel changes but they will be right there although there is no value on this number after coming in at +220 last season. Barring significant injury, getting to and winning the Super Bowl is in play but as is the case again, the AFC is loaded and wide open.
Cincinnati Bengals: 9-8 ~ 1-5 AFC North ~ 7-8-2 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC North, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 17
Notable Additions: RB Zack Moss, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, DT Sheldon Rankins, S Geno Stone, S Vonn Bell
Notable Losses: RB Joe Mixon, WR Tyler Boyd, TE Irv Smith, OT Jonah Williams, DT D.J. Reader, CB Chidobe Awuzie, S Nick Scott
Notable Draft Selections: OT Amarius Mims, DT Kris Jenkins, WR Jermaine Burton, NT McKinnley Jackson, TE Erick All, CB Josh Newton
The Bengals had a trying 2023 season but somehow were still in the playoff mix at 8-6 but back-to-back losses at Pittsburgh and Kansas City did them in yet a 9-8 finish was still impressive. It is safe to say the success of Cincinnati revolves around the health of quarterback Joe Burrow. The Bengals went 5-5 in games he played but four of those losses were when he was not healthy, three with his calf injury and the final one when he hurt his wrist against Baltimore. Keeping him upright is of the utmost importance and after allowing 50 sacks last season, the offensive line has been upgraded with Trent Brown and draft pick Amarius Mims. Team veterans Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd are gone but there should be no drop-off in either unit. While a lot of the blame for missing the playoffs was because Burrow was rarely 100 percent, the defense has to take most, if not all of the blame. The Bengals were No. 28 in Defensive EPA including No. 29 against the run and No. 25 against the pass. There have been changes along the line and in the secondary but will it be enough? The first half of the schedule is a must for a quick start as they face five teams that went a combined 24-61 and two of their toughest games against Baltimore and Philadelphia are both at home. Five of the last eight games are on the road.
The Bengals do have slightly higher odds across the board to win the AFC North, AFC and Super Bowl from last season yet their regular season win total is higher than it was in 2023. That might not make much sense but the makeup of this team justifies it. The schedule is backloaded so if Cincinnati gets off to a hot start which it should, it can use that momentum to steal some games in the second half so going over the win total is conceivable as is winning the AFC North. The makeup of this team refers to the fact the Bengals are awful on defense without making enough improvement and they will not be able to make a playoff run without a potent defense so making any move on winning the conference or the Super Bowl seems a stretch.
Cleveland Browns: 11-7 ~ 3-3 AFC North ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 11-6-1 O/U
Finished 2nd in the AFC North, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 1
Notable Additions: QB Jameis Winston, QB Tyler Huntley, RB Nyheim Hines, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Jerry Jeudy, OT Hakeem Adeniji, DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Devin Bush, CB Tony Brown
Notable Losses: QB Joe Flacco, RB Kareem Hunt, TE Harrison Bryant, C Nick Harris, DT Shelby Harris, DT Jordan Elliott, LB Anthony Walker, LB Sione Takitaki, S Duron Harmon
Notable Draft Selections: DT Michael Hall, G Zak Zinter
Cleveland was in the same boat last season as Cincinnati as it had quarterback issues but the difference between the Browns and Bengals was that the Browns had a defense, actually, one of the best in the league. It did not do them any good in the playoffs as they were bounced by Houston in a blowout but going 11-7 possibly gives them a lot to look forward to. No one saw Joe Flacco coming from his couch to take the Browns into the postseason but now it is time for Deshawn Watson to show his worth. Suspensions and injuries have limited him to 11 games in Cleveland but only four of those resulted in a passer rating of 90 or higher so he needs to revert to his time in Houston. The offense was also able to overcome the loss of running back Nick Chubb to have an average running game but he will not be ready to start the season so the signings of Nyheim Hines and D'Onta Foreman is a good temporary fix. The defense should be just as good with the only significant loss being linebacker Anthony Walker. The offense has a chance to come together early as after the opener at home against Dallas, the Browns face the Jaguars, Giants, Raiders and Commanders in consecutive weeks although three of those are on the road and then 10 of the last 12 games are against legitimate playoff teams.
Looking at this schedule makes it hard to find nine wins as there are only a few sure wins with numerous swing games, a very tough division and crossover games against the Cowboys, Eagles, Chargers and Chiefs. For a team that finished with 11 wins and now having an 8.5 number put on them and not having much change going into this season shows the oddsmakers know this team overachieved so taking the under at plus money is the better option based on this slate and with the injury prone Watson under center with a turnover machine as his backup. That being said, there is no value on the division number and this is not a Super Bowl ready team and while missing the playoffs is juiced at -175, it like the safe bet.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-8 ~ 5-1 AFC North ~ 10-8-0 ATS ~ 7-11-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the AFC North, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 3
Notable Additions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, QB Kyle Allen, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Van Jefferson, WR Quez Watkins, DT Dean Lowry, LB Patrick Queen, CB Donte Jackson, S DeShon Elliott, P Cameron Johnston
Notable Losses: QB Kenny Pickett, QB Mason Rudolph, WR Diontae Johnson, C Mason Cole, DT Armon Watts, OLB Markus Golden, LB Kwon Alexander, LB Blake Martinez, CB Levi Wallace, CB Chandon Sullivan, CB James Pierre, S Patrick Peterson, S Keanu Neal
Notable Draft Selections: OT Troy Fautanu, C Zach Frazier, WR Roman Wilson, LB Payton Wilson, C Mason McCormick
The Steelers came away with another winning season to sneak into the playoffs but they were no match for Buffalo in the Wild Card Round. You have to go all the way back to 2003 to find a losing record and head coach Mike Tomlin owns a run of 17 straight seasons at .500 or above. There have been three Super Bowls including two wins, with Tomlin going 1-1, but they have not made it since 2010 and this is likely not the year. Pittsburgh is a totally different team on offense from the start of last season, from offensive coordinator right down to the quarterback room. The Kenny Pickett experiment did not work out and he is out along with Mason Rudolph and they brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields and neither have shown much the last couple years to prove to turn around an offense that was No. 23 in Passing EPA last season. They will again rely on the running game with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The defense once again was solid and it all revolves around T.J. Watt as Pittsburgh was 8-2 when he played and 1-6 when he did not but it needs to figure out to succeed around him as while his 19 sacks were outstanding, only one other player had more than four sacks. A big addition is linebacker Patrick Queen coming over from the division rival Ravens and the secondary improved with Donte Jackson and DeShon Elliott coming over from Carolina and Miami respectively to compliment Joey Porter, Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick. But it all comes down to Watt staying healthy.
Since 2004, Pittsburgh has been an over machine. It is 14-6 to the over and making that even more impressive is their lowest preseason win total was 7.5 twice and four of the six under wins were when they had a double-digit win total. The Steelers have cashed the over in 11 of 13 seasons when it is single digits. Does the train keep rolling or is it time to deboard? Pittsburgh has the most bizarre schedule as its first nine games are against non-vision foes and seven of those are winnable but they cannot slip up as Kansas City and Philadelphia are wrapped around the six division games in the final eight. There are just so many unknowns to make a speculation of the long term performance of this team so looking at in-season odds is the way go.
Colorado State vs Texas Prediction 8-31-24
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Matt Fargo Sports Colorado State +35
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NCAAF 08/31 3:30 PM Colorado State vs Texas
PICK: Colorado State 35
s is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS for our Saturday Free Play. This line opened Texas -35 to -36 and was bet down to -32 in some places over a week ago but as expected, the public money is coming back in on the Longhorns and the number is rising again. They come into the season with National Championship aspirations and with the comes inflated number especially early on in the season against teams it should push around. This is not a layup though as Texas should not have any worries about losing but what they show is the big story. The Longhorns have a game against Michigan on deck and it is very unlikely they open up the entire playbook here. Texas has seven starters back on offense highlighted by quarterback Quinn Ewers but a lot has to be replaced around the quarterback as Texas loses top five receivers. The Longhorns also lost leading rusher Jonathan Brooks and his replacement, CJ Baxter, was lost for the season with a torn ACL and PCL. The defense will be stout once again but the Longhorns do have a weak defensive line after losing their two best players. Colorado St. put together five straight winning seasons from 2013-2017 but now they have a string of six straight losing campaigns culminating with its 5-7 record last year. The Rams had a chance to make it to a bowl game but lost its season finale as a favorite at Hawaii. Four of the seven losses were by one possession so there was progress last season following back-to-back 3-9 campaigns and they are looking for the breakthrough. Head coach Jay Norvell has this team going in the right direction entering his third season after proven success at Nevada where he got out at the right time. The offense nearly doubled its output, going from 13.2 ppg in 2022 to 26.1 ppg in 2023 thanks to the top passing game in the MWC that finished No. 9 in the country led by all MWC quarterback Braydon Fowler-Nicolosi. His top target Tory Horton returns and while they lose their leading rusher, there was not much there anyway. The offensive line returns four of five starters. The defense regressed from 2022 but the Rams are athletic and will show improvement. Three of their top four tacklers that combined for 296 tackles are back and the secondary is loaded. Play (187) Colorado St. Rams
CFB 12-4 run going back to last year following a 2-1 start to 2024! FIVE Saturday Plays Posted! MLB 23-17 +$9,580 L40! More winners Saturday! NFL +$72,010 in profits L12 years! Week 1 posted soon! CFL on a 9-5 Run!
YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
Top Handicappers Profit
Matt Fargo Sports $2700.00
Brian Bitler $860.00
Mikhail Kivowitz $390.00
Marc Lawrence $300.00
James Patrick Sports $300.00
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Matt Fargo Sports Colorado State +35
Discount 50% off All Handicappers
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NCAAF 08/31 3:30 PM Colorado State vs Texas
PICK: Colorado State 35
s is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS for our Saturday Free Play. This line opened Texas -35 to -36 and was bet down to -32 in some places over a week ago but as expected, the public money is coming back in on the Longhorns and the number is rising again. They come into the season with National Championship aspirations and with the comes inflated number especially early on in the season against teams it should push around. This is not a layup though as Texas should not have any worries about losing but what they show is the big story. The Longhorns have a game against Michigan on deck and it is very unlikely they open up the entire playbook here. Texas has seven starters back on offense highlighted by quarterback Quinn Ewers but a lot has to be replaced around the quarterback as Texas loses top five receivers. The Longhorns also lost leading rusher Jonathan Brooks and his replacement, CJ Baxter, was lost for the season with a torn ACL and PCL. The defense will be stout once again but the Longhorns do have a weak defensive line after losing their two best players. Colorado St. put together five straight winning seasons from 2013-2017 but now they have a string of six straight losing campaigns culminating with its 5-7 record last year. The Rams had a chance to make it to a bowl game but lost its season finale as a favorite at Hawaii. Four of the seven losses were by one possession so there was progress last season following back-to-back 3-9 campaigns and they are looking for the breakthrough. Head coach Jay Norvell has this team going in the right direction entering his third season after proven success at Nevada where he got out at the right time. The offense nearly doubled its output, going from 13.2 ppg in 2022 to 26.1 ppg in 2023 thanks to the top passing game in the MWC that finished No. 9 in the country led by all MWC quarterback Braydon Fowler-Nicolosi. His top target Tory Horton returns and while they lose their leading rusher, there was not much there anyway. The offensive line returns four of five starters. The defense regressed from 2022 but the Rams are athletic and will show improvement. Three of their top four tacklers that combined for 296 tackles are back and the secondary is loaded. Play (187) Colorado St. Rams
CFB 12-4 run going back to last year following a 2-1 start to 2024! FIVE Saturday Plays Posted! MLB 23-17 +$9,580 L40! More winners Saturday! NFL +$72,010 in profits L12 years! Week 1 posted soon! CFL on a 9-5 Run!
YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
Top Handicappers Profit
Matt Fargo Sports $2700.00
Brian Bitler $860.00
Mikhail Kivowitz $390.00
Marc Lawrence $300.00
James Patrick Sports $300.00
Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants Free Pick 8-30-24
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Matt Fargo Sports San Francisco Giants -1.5
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MLB 08/30 10:15 PM Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants -1.5
s is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS RL for our Friday Free Play. Miami is coming off a split in Colorado, winning the two games where the offense went off but it managed to score only two runs in each of the losses. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 4.1 rpg since July 28 and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .294 wOBA, .673 OPS and a .134 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 49 of 86 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 9-37 while averaging 3.0 rpg with a .229 average and a .644 OPS, both of which are third worst in the league and of those 37 losses, 32 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 3.9 rpg. The Giants are a game under .500 following a pair of losses in Milwaukee which concluded a 2-4 roadtrip. San Francisco has a slim shot at the National League Wild Card with an absolutely brutal upcoming schedule so this is the series it has to sweep to keep any hope alive. The Giants are huge favorites and for good reason but there is no chance laying the big number as the runline is where the value lies as the Marlins are in that 86 percent spot of losing this game by more than one run. Blake Snell was rolling along but then struggled with his command in his last start as he went just three innings against Seattle and while he did not allow a hit, he was charged with two earned runs no thanks to six walks and he was pulled after 74 pitches. After a rough first six starts, he has been one of the best in baseball since coming back from injury as he has a 1.30 ERA in his last nine starts which is No. 1 in baseball among 75 starters going at least 50 innings while his 37.1% K% is also the best in MLB. The Giants will face Adam Oller who is making just his third start with his last one being decent against the Cubs after getting shelled by Arizona. He now hits the road for the first time this season and while the Giants are not an elite offense, they have been much better at home with their .708 OPS. Play (962) San Francisco Giants -1.5 Runs
CFB 11-4 run going back to last year following a 1-1 start to 2024! SEVEN Week 1 Plays Posted! MLB 21-16 +$7,830 L37! 3-0 Triple Play tonight! NFL +$72,010 in profits L12 years! Week 1 posted soon! CFL on a 9-5 Run!
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TKwins (Tommy King) $2000.00
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Rob Vinciletti $1000.00
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James Patrick Sports $300.00
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Matt Fargo Sports San Francisco Giants -1.5
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MLB 08/30 10:15 PM Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants -1.5
s is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS RL for our Friday Free Play. Miami is coming off a split in Colorado, winning the two games where the offense went off but it managed to score only two runs in each of the losses. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 4.1 rpg since July 28 and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .294 wOBA, .673 OPS and a .134 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 49 of 86 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 9-37 while averaging 3.0 rpg with a .229 average and a .644 OPS, both of which are third worst in the league and of those 37 losses, 32 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 3.9 rpg. The Giants are a game under .500 following a pair of losses in Milwaukee which concluded a 2-4 roadtrip. San Francisco has a slim shot at the National League Wild Card with an absolutely brutal upcoming schedule so this is the series it has to sweep to keep any hope alive. The Giants are huge favorites and for good reason but there is no chance laying the big number as the runline is where the value lies as the Marlins are in that 86 percent spot of losing this game by more than one run. Blake Snell was rolling along but then struggled with his command in his last start as he went just three innings against Seattle and while he did not allow a hit, he was charged with two earned runs no thanks to six walks and he was pulled after 74 pitches. After a rough first six starts, he has been one of the best in baseball since coming back from injury as he has a 1.30 ERA in his last nine starts which is No. 1 in baseball among 75 starters going at least 50 innings while his 37.1% K% is also the best in MLB. The Giants will face Adam Oller who is making just his third start with his last one being decent against the Cubs after getting shelled by Arizona. He now hits the road for the first time this season and while the Giants are not an elite offense, they have been much better at home with their .708 OPS. Play (962) San Francisco Giants -1.5 Runs
CFB 11-4 run going back to last year following a 1-1 start to 2024! SEVEN Week 1 Plays Posted! MLB 21-16 +$7,830 L37! 3-0 Triple Play tonight! NFL +$72,010 in profits L12 years! Week 1 posted soon! CFL on a 9-5 Run!
YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
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TKwins (Tommy King) $2000.00
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2024 AFC East Overview and Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/
Regular Season Win Totals and AFC East/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Over +130 Under -155 ~ AFC East Winner +180 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,500
New York Jets: 9.5 Over -155 Under +130 ~ AFC East Winner +180 ~ Super Bowl Winner +2,000
Miami Dolphins: 9.5 Over -135 Under -180 ~ AFC East Winner +200 ~ Super Bowl Winner +2,200
New England Patriots: 4.5 Over -135 Under +110 ~ AFC East Winner +2,500 ~ Super Bowl Winner +18,000
Coaching Changes
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick Out ~ Jerod Mayo In
Team Previews
Buffalo Bills: 12-7 ~ 4-2 AFC East ~ 8-10-1 ATS ~ 8-11-0 O/U
Won AFC East, Lost in AFC Divisional Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 7
Notable Additions: QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Mack Hollins, OT La'el Collins, C Will Clapp, DE Casey Toohill, DT Austin Johnson, LB Nicholas Morrow, S Mike Edwards
Notable Losses: QB Kyle Allen, RB Damien Harris, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, WR Trent Sherfield, C Mitch Morse, DE Shaq Lawson, DT Linval Joseph, DT Tim Settle, DT Poona Ford, DE/OLB Leonard Floyd, LB Tyrel Dodson, CB Tre'Davious White, CB Dane Jackson, S Micah Hyde, S Jordan Poyer
Notable Draft Selections: WR Keon Coleman, S Cole Bishop, DT DeWayne Carter, RB Ray Davis, C Sedric Van Pran
Buffalo won its fifth consecutive AFC East title last season but also coming off its fifth consecutive season of playoff disappointment. The Bills have won their last four Wild Card Round games but have dropped their last three Divisional Round games, all at home, including a devastating 27-24 loss to Kansas City last season. While not a complete rebuild around quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo has replaced many pieces from these past teams, notably receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, center Mitch Morse and most of their starting secondary and this fresh start could be just what they need. Injuries hurt them throughout the season, mostly on the defense but the Bills still finished No. 8 in Defensive EPA and they allowed more than 24 points only four times. Those injuries could actually help going into this season with other players stepping up and gaining needed experience and winning jobs. Buffalo has already sustained a tough loss as All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano will miss about half the season with a bicep tear after missing a big chunk of last season as well. The offense took off after offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired and Joe Brady was promoted and now having a full offseason and training camp, he will have them ready. The receiving corps will have a whole new look and after finishing No. 4 in Offensive Passing EPA, this group will be the wild card of how the offense continues to be productive.
We do not see any value in betting the 10.5 wins as a revamped roster along with a tough schedule will make it tough getting to 11 wins and we have no interest laying -155 on the under. The Bills have dropped to AFC East co-favorites with the Jets and it will be important to get through the first seven games with at least a 5-2 record as their next seven games are all against teams that had winning records last season including five double-digit winners. Buffalo is tied with the Eagles for the sixth lowest Super Bowl odds at +1,500 but this is the highest they have been since 2020 when they were +3,000 (+900, +600 and +1,100 the last three years) so there could be value there this season banking on the fact they are not overhyped and will not be over bet.
New York Jets: 7-10 ~ 2-4 AFC East ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 14
Notable Additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, WR Mike Williams, OT Tyron Smith, OT Morgan Moses, G John Simpson, DE Haason Reddick, DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Leki Fotu, CB Isaiah Oliver
Notable Losses: TE C.J. Uzomah, OT Duane Brown, OT Billy Turner, G Laken Tomlinson, C Connor McGovern, DE Carl Lawson, DE Bryce Huff, DT Quinton Jefferson, S Jordan Whitehead
Notable Draft Selections: OT Olu Fashanu, WR Malachi Corley, RB Braelon Allen
The Jets have not made the playoff since 2010, the longest active drought in the NFL at 13 seasons and that was all supposed to change last season with quarterback Aaron Rodgers signing with New York but those aspirations lasted four plays into the season when he went down with a torn Achillies and was lost for the season. It was up to Zack Wilson to take over the offense and it was a disaster with New York finishing dead last in the league in Offensive EPA and Offensive Passing EPA. Rodgers is back to full health but he is 41 years old and that injury risk is always there. The Jets shored up the offensive line by signing Tyron Smith but he too is an injury waiting to happen. Garrett Wilson is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and they are hoping Mike Williams can strengthen the unit but again, he is an injury risk coming off a torn ACL. The defense kept the Jets respectable last season as they were No. 3 in Defensive EPA thanks to an outstanding secondary which should be even better with safety Chuck Clark coming back after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. The rushing defense was an issue but Quinnen Williams can still dominate and the signing of Leki Fotu could be a huge addition. The lingering issue is newly acquired Haason Reddick who still has not signed and has requested a trade but if they can work this out, this will again be one of the best units in the AFC. If Rodgers can stay healthy, this team can be very dangerous. A big if though.
The Jets have the same win total as last season at 9.5 but it is more juiced at -155 compared to -125 in 2023 and this is risky bet based on many of the players they are relying on having had prior injury issues. It is a middle of the pack schedule with the possibility of 11-12 wins if everything goes right but in the NFL, we can never count on that. New York has shorter odds to win the division than they did last season with the retooled Buffalo roster having an impact on that. Again, this is another bet that will come down to the health of the roster. The Jets are +138 to miss the playoffs and that is an interesting bet to hedge with the +2,000 to win the Super Bowl as it would be a small win if they do not with a chance to still hedge in the playoffs if they do.
Miami Dolphins: 11-7 ~ 4-2 AFC East ~ 10-8-0 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/U
Finished 2nd in the AFC East, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 24
Notable Additions: TE Jonnu Smith, OT Jack Driscoll, C Aaron Brewer, DT Calais Campbell, DT Neville Gallimore, DT Benito Jones, DE/OLB Shaq Barrett, LB Jordyn Brooks, LB Anthony Walker, CB Kendall Fuller, CB Siran Neal, S Jordan Poyer
Notable Losses: WR Cedrick Wilson, G Robert Hunt, C Connor Williams, DE Andrew Van Ginkel, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, DT Christian Wilkins, DT Raekwon Davis, LB Jerome Baker, CB Xavien Howard, CB Eli Apple, S Brandon Jones, S Jerome Baker
Notable Draft Selections: DE Chop Robinson, OT Patrick Paul, RB Jaylen Wright, DE/OLB Mo Kamara
Miami opened the season 5-1 with an offense that could not be stopped with the lone loss over that stretch coming at Buffalo and that was a sign of things to come. Those five wins were all against non-playoff teams and of their 11 total victories, a two-point win over Dallas was the Dolphins only one against a team that made the postseason. They face an easy schedule for a second place team as they play 10 games against non-playoff teams from last season but of the other seven games, five of those are on the road. Possibly more important, they have only one home game at 1:00 prior to October 27 so they cannot take advantage of the heat and humidity edge hurting the opponents. Like many teams, the Dolphins offense was hurt by injuries with wide receiver Tyreke Hill being banged up in the second half of the season and the offensive line absolutely getting crushed. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was the one surprise that remained healthy and he led the NFL in passing with 4,624 yards but he does have a past. Miami has one of the best duo running back in Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. The defense was just average and by the end of the season, they were too banged up to make any sort of playoff run. They lost Jaelan Phillips and Jalen Ramsey at different points so staying healthy will be a big part of improving their No. 15 Defensive EPA from last season. They lost tackle Christian Wilkins, end Andrew Van Ginkel and linebacker Jerome Baker so there are holes to fill.
The Dolphins are with the Jets at 9.5 wins but at smaller odds which could make them the more tempting take if deciding between the two. The intangible is their home/road splits with the schedule as they have one additional road game and have no home advantage in September and early October. Miami is slightly behind the Jets and Bills at +200 and this is where the value could lie as they are sort of the forgotten team in the mix even though they were +300 last year and +475 in 2022. The Dolphins have roughly the same odds as last season to win the conference and the Super Bowl and with their roster, they arguably have the highest ceiling in the division so a sprinkle on both of those could be the way to go.
New England Patriots: 4-13 ~ 2-4 AFC East ~ 5-11-1 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 8
Notable Additions: QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Antonio Gibson, WR K.J. Osborn, TE Austin Hooper, OT Chukwuma Okorafor, G Nick Leverett, DT Armon Watts, ILB Sione Takitaki, S Jaylinn Hawkins
Notable Losses: QB Mac Jones, RB Ezekiel Elliott, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, C James Ferentz, LB Mack Wilson, CB Myles Bryant, CB J.C. Jackson, S Jalen Mills
Notable Draft Selections: QB Drake Maye, WR Ja'Lynn Polk, OT Caedan Wallace, G Layden Robinson, WR Javon Baker
It has been a quick descent for the Patriots as they are coming off a 4-13 season which was their worst record since going 2-14 back in 1992. They have missed the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time since 1999-2000 and you can pretty much assure that the streak will hit three seasons. Now they will play their first season without head coach Bill Belichick as his tenure in New England has come to an end after 24 seasons. It will be up Jerod Mayo to put a competitive team on the field with very little to work with and playing in a very strong division. The offense was atrocious as the Patriots finished No. 31 in Offensive EPA and the Mac Jones era is over after a short stint. New England hopes they did not draft a Jones clone in quarterback Drake Maye but he will likely serve as the backup to Jacoby Brissett. Whoever gets the nod does not have a clear No. 1 receiver to throw to as Kendrick Bourne is the top guy but is coming off a torn ACL and will not be 100 percent. The offensive line is a mess which could hinder the production of Rhamondre Stevenson. New England was actually solid on defense as they were No. 9 in EPA and that unit will be the only thing that keeps them somewhat competitive. This does not look like a last place schedule as outside of playing the AFC East and AFC South, the crossover games feature six of seven games against opponents that should be right in the playoff mix with Arizona being the lone exception although the Cardinals will be much improved.
The oddsmakers are not seeing much improvement as they have put a 4.5-win total on them after not coming close to the 7.5-win total placed on them last season. After going 8-0-2 to the over from 2010-2019, New England has gone under three of the last four years, eclipsing the total by just a half-game in 2021. The schedule is pretty brutal and with plus money next to the under, that would be the way to go as they are likely to be underdogs in every game this season. As far as any division, conference or Super Bowl bets, save your cash. DraftKings does have the Patriots at +2,500 to go 0-17, along with the Broncos and Panthers, and while any team going winless is getting less likely in this league, this could be the one team to do it.
By Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/
Regular Season Win Totals and AFC East/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Over +130 Under -155 ~ AFC East Winner +180 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,500
New York Jets: 9.5 Over -155 Under +130 ~ AFC East Winner +180 ~ Super Bowl Winner +2,000
Miami Dolphins: 9.5 Over -135 Under -180 ~ AFC East Winner +200 ~ Super Bowl Winner +2,200
New England Patriots: 4.5 Over -135 Under +110 ~ AFC East Winner +2,500 ~ Super Bowl Winner +18,000
Coaching Changes
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick Out ~ Jerod Mayo In
Team Previews
Buffalo Bills: 12-7 ~ 4-2 AFC East ~ 8-10-1 ATS ~ 8-11-0 O/U
Won AFC East, Lost in AFC Divisional Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 7
Notable Additions: QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Mack Hollins, OT La'el Collins, C Will Clapp, DE Casey Toohill, DT Austin Johnson, LB Nicholas Morrow, S Mike Edwards
Notable Losses: QB Kyle Allen, RB Damien Harris, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, WR Trent Sherfield, C Mitch Morse, DE Shaq Lawson, DT Linval Joseph, DT Tim Settle, DT Poona Ford, DE/OLB Leonard Floyd, LB Tyrel Dodson, CB Tre'Davious White, CB Dane Jackson, S Micah Hyde, S Jordan Poyer
Notable Draft Selections: WR Keon Coleman, S Cole Bishop, DT DeWayne Carter, RB Ray Davis, C Sedric Van Pran
Buffalo won its fifth consecutive AFC East title last season but also coming off its fifth consecutive season of playoff disappointment. The Bills have won their last four Wild Card Round games but have dropped their last three Divisional Round games, all at home, including a devastating 27-24 loss to Kansas City last season. While not a complete rebuild around quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo has replaced many pieces from these past teams, notably receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, center Mitch Morse and most of their starting secondary and this fresh start could be just what they need. Injuries hurt them throughout the season, mostly on the defense but the Bills still finished No. 8 in Defensive EPA and they allowed more than 24 points only four times. Those injuries could actually help going into this season with other players stepping up and gaining needed experience and winning jobs. Buffalo has already sustained a tough loss as All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano will miss about half the season with a bicep tear after missing a big chunk of last season as well. The offense took off after offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired and Joe Brady was promoted and now having a full offseason and training camp, he will have them ready. The receiving corps will have a whole new look and after finishing No. 4 in Offensive Passing EPA, this group will be the wild card of how the offense continues to be productive.
We do not see any value in betting the 10.5 wins as a revamped roster along with a tough schedule will make it tough getting to 11 wins and we have no interest laying -155 on the under. The Bills have dropped to AFC East co-favorites with the Jets and it will be important to get through the first seven games with at least a 5-2 record as their next seven games are all against teams that had winning records last season including five double-digit winners. Buffalo is tied with the Eagles for the sixth lowest Super Bowl odds at +1,500 but this is the highest they have been since 2020 when they were +3,000 (+900, +600 and +1,100 the last three years) so there could be value there this season banking on the fact they are not overhyped and will not be over bet.
New York Jets: 7-10 ~ 2-4 AFC East ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 14
Notable Additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, WR Mike Williams, OT Tyron Smith, OT Morgan Moses, G John Simpson, DE Haason Reddick, DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Leki Fotu, CB Isaiah Oliver
Notable Losses: TE C.J. Uzomah, OT Duane Brown, OT Billy Turner, G Laken Tomlinson, C Connor McGovern, DE Carl Lawson, DE Bryce Huff, DT Quinton Jefferson, S Jordan Whitehead
Notable Draft Selections: OT Olu Fashanu, WR Malachi Corley, RB Braelon Allen
The Jets have not made the playoff since 2010, the longest active drought in the NFL at 13 seasons and that was all supposed to change last season with quarterback Aaron Rodgers signing with New York but those aspirations lasted four plays into the season when he went down with a torn Achillies and was lost for the season. It was up to Zack Wilson to take over the offense and it was a disaster with New York finishing dead last in the league in Offensive EPA and Offensive Passing EPA. Rodgers is back to full health but he is 41 years old and that injury risk is always there. The Jets shored up the offensive line by signing Tyron Smith but he too is an injury waiting to happen. Garrett Wilson is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and they are hoping Mike Williams can strengthen the unit but again, he is an injury risk coming off a torn ACL. The defense kept the Jets respectable last season as they were No. 3 in Defensive EPA thanks to an outstanding secondary which should be even better with safety Chuck Clark coming back after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. The rushing defense was an issue but Quinnen Williams can still dominate and the signing of Leki Fotu could be a huge addition. The lingering issue is newly acquired Haason Reddick who still has not signed and has requested a trade but if they can work this out, this will again be one of the best units in the AFC. If Rodgers can stay healthy, this team can be very dangerous. A big if though.
The Jets have the same win total as last season at 9.5 but it is more juiced at -155 compared to -125 in 2023 and this is risky bet based on many of the players they are relying on having had prior injury issues. It is a middle of the pack schedule with the possibility of 11-12 wins if everything goes right but in the NFL, we can never count on that. New York has shorter odds to win the division than they did last season with the retooled Buffalo roster having an impact on that. Again, this is another bet that will come down to the health of the roster. The Jets are +138 to miss the playoffs and that is an interesting bet to hedge with the +2,000 to win the Super Bowl as it would be a small win if they do not with a chance to still hedge in the playoffs if they do.
Miami Dolphins: 11-7 ~ 4-2 AFC East ~ 10-8-0 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/U
Finished 2nd in the AFC East, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 24
Notable Additions: TE Jonnu Smith, OT Jack Driscoll, C Aaron Brewer, DT Calais Campbell, DT Neville Gallimore, DT Benito Jones, DE/OLB Shaq Barrett, LB Jordyn Brooks, LB Anthony Walker, CB Kendall Fuller, CB Siran Neal, S Jordan Poyer
Notable Losses: WR Cedrick Wilson, G Robert Hunt, C Connor Williams, DE Andrew Van Ginkel, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, DT Christian Wilkins, DT Raekwon Davis, LB Jerome Baker, CB Xavien Howard, CB Eli Apple, S Brandon Jones, S Jerome Baker
Notable Draft Selections: DE Chop Robinson, OT Patrick Paul, RB Jaylen Wright, DE/OLB Mo Kamara
Miami opened the season 5-1 with an offense that could not be stopped with the lone loss over that stretch coming at Buffalo and that was a sign of things to come. Those five wins were all against non-playoff teams and of their 11 total victories, a two-point win over Dallas was the Dolphins only one against a team that made the postseason. They face an easy schedule for a second place team as they play 10 games against non-playoff teams from last season but of the other seven games, five of those are on the road. Possibly more important, they have only one home game at 1:00 prior to October 27 so they cannot take advantage of the heat and humidity edge hurting the opponents. Like many teams, the Dolphins offense was hurt by injuries with wide receiver Tyreke Hill being banged up in the second half of the season and the offensive line absolutely getting crushed. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was the one surprise that remained healthy and he led the NFL in passing with 4,624 yards but he does have a past. Miami has one of the best duo running back in Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. The defense was just average and by the end of the season, they were too banged up to make any sort of playoff run. They lost Jaelan Phillips and Jalen Ramsey at different points so staying healthy will be a big part of improving their No. 15 Defensive EPA from last season. They lost tackle Christian Wilkins, end Andrew Van Ginkel and linebacker Jerome Baker so there are holes to fill.
The Dolphins are with the Jets at 9.5 wins but at smaller odds which could make them the more tempting take if deciding between the two. The intangible is their home/road splits with the schedule as they have one additional road game and have no home advantage in September and early October. Miami is slightly behind the Jets and Bills at +200 and this is where the value could lie as they are sort of the forgotten team in the mix even though they were +300 last year and +475 in 2022. The Dolphins have roughly the same odds as last season to win the conference and the Super Bowl and with their roster, they arguably have the highest ceiling in the division so a sprinkle on both of those could be the way to go.
New England Patriots: 4-13 ~ 2-4 AFC East ~ 5-11-1 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 8
Notable Additions: QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Antonio Gibson, WR K.J. Osborn, TE Austin Hooper, OT Chukwuma Okorafor, G Nick Leverett, DT Armon Watts, ILB Sione Takitaki, S Jaylinn Hawkins
Notable Losses: QB Mac Jones, RB Ezekiel Elliott, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, C James Ferentz, LB Mack Wilson, CB Myles Bryant, CB J.C. Jackson, S Jalen Mills
Notable Draft Selections: QB Drake Maye, WR Ja'Lynn Polk, OT Caedan Wallace, G Layden Robinson, WR Javon Baker
It has been a quick descent for the Patriots as they are coming off a 4-13 season which was their worst record since going 2-14 back in 1992. They have missed the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time since 1999-2000 and you can pretty much assure that the streak will hit three seasons. Now they will play their first season without head coach Bill Belichick as his tenure in New England has come to an end after 24 seasons. It will be up Jerod Mayo to put a competitive team on the field with very little to work with and playing in a very strong division. The offense was atrocious as the Patriots finished No. 31 in Offensive EPA and the Mac Jones era is over after a short stint. New England hopes they did not draft a Jones clone in quarterback Drake Maye but he will likely serve as the backup to Jacoby Brissett. Whoever gets the nod does not have a clear No. 1 receiver to throw to as Kendrick Bourne is the top guy but is coming off a torn ACL and will not be 100 percent. The offensive line is a mess which could hinder the production of Rhamondre Stevenson. New England was actually solid on defense as they were No. 9 in EPA and that unit will be the only thing that keeps them somewhat competitive. This does not look like a last place schedule as outside of playing the AFC East and AFC South, the crossover games feature six of seven games against opponents that should be right in the playoff mix with Arizona being the lone exception although the Cardinals will be much improved.
The oddsmakers are not seeing much improvement as they have put a 4.5-win total on them after not coming close to the 7.5-win total placed on them last season. After going 8-0-2 to the over from 2010-2019, New England has gone under three of the last four years, eclipsing the total by just a half-game in 2021. The schedule is pretty brutal and with plus money next to the under, that would be the way to go as they are likely to be underdogs in every game this season. As far as any division, conference or Super Bowl bets, save your cash. DraftKings does have the Patriots at +2,500 to go 0-17, along with the Broncos and Panthers, and while any team going winless is getting less likely in this league, this could be the one team to do it.
New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick 8-29-24
https://topsportscappers.com
Matt Fargo Sports Arizona -115
Discount 50% off All Handicappers
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Matt Fargo Sports
MLB 08/29 3:40 PM New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks -115
s is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our Thursday Free Play. The Diamondbacks had their six-game winning streak snapped with a loss on Tuesday but got it back last night and remain a game up on the Padres for the No. 1 Wild Card spot and Arizona is still three games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. Arizona is 11 games over .500 at home where it has a .781 OPS which is best in the National League and the pitching matchup is again in their favor but the line is not giving them the credit so there is value again with the second hottest team in baseball since the All Star Break at 25-9. New York has been stuck in neutral since a five-game winning streak at the end of July as it is 14-16 since then and the Mets have been middle of the road on both sides. They are now four games behind the Braves for the final National League Wild Card spot as it continues to be an uphill battle with no consistency with time running out. They have been decent on the road which is in play in keeping this number down but we remain unsold on the starter tonight. David Peterson has a 2.85 ERA on the season in 15 starts which is pretty solid but his metrics do not line up well here. He does not make any qualified rankings based on limited innings but among all 131 starters tossing at least 80 innings, he is No. 109 in SIERA at 4.67. He is not a high strikeout pitcher and has a high walk rate which has put his K-BB% at 8.0% which is No. 121 out of those 131 starters and this is not the offense to face to fix any of this. Ryne Nelson is coming off three straight quality starts and he is a pitcher that is going through positive progression as since the start of July, he is No. 27 with a 3.51 ERA among 105 starters that have gone at least 60 innings. His BB% is 4.7% which is No. 13 among those 105 starters and one thing that has picked up is his K% that is 31.7% over his last five starts, No. 6 of the 37 starters that have gone at least 30 innings since the end of July. Play (908) Arizona Diamondbacks
CFB 11-3 run back to last year and off an opening win on Georgia Tech! Week 1 Thu-Sat Posted! MLB 21-14 +$9,830 L35! 2-0 Double Play tonight! NFL +$72,010 in profits L12 years! Week 1 posted soon! CFL on a 9-5 Run!
YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
Top Handicappers Profit
Matt Fargo Sports $1500.00
Marc Lawrence $300.00
https://topsportscappers.com
Matt Fargo Sports Arizona -115
Discount 50% off All Handicappers
So jump on the discounts while you can. Picks and Packages less than 6 months are guaranteed to show a profit
Matt Fargo Sports
MLB 08/29 3:40 PM New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks -115
s is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our Thursday Free Play. The Diamondbacks had their six-game winning streak snapped with a loss on Tuesday but got it back last night and remain a game up on the Padres for the No. 1 Wild Card spot and Arizona is still three games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. Arizona is 11 games over .500 at home where it has a .781 OPS which is best in the National League and the pitching matchup is again in their favor but the line is not giving them the credit so there is value again with the second hottest team in baseball since the All Star Break at 25-9. New York has been stuck in neutral since a five-game winning streak at the end of July as it is 14-16 since then and the Mets have been middle of the road on both sides. They are now four games behind the Braves for the final National League Wild Card spot as it continues to be an uphill battle with no consistency with time running out. They have been decent on the road which is in play in keeping this number down but we remain unsold on the starter tonight. David Peterson has a 2.85 ERA on the season in 15 starts which is pretty solid but his metrics do not line up well here. He does not make any qualified rankings based on limited innings but among all 131 starters tossing at least 80 innings, he is No. 109 in SIERA at 4.67. He is not a high strikeout pitcher and has a high walk rate which has put his K-BB% at 8.0% which is No. 121 out of those 131 starters and this is not the offense to face to fix any of this. Ryne Nelson is coming off three straight quality starts and he is a pitcher that is going through positive progression as since the start of July, he is No. 27 with a 3.51 ERA among 105 starters that have gone at least 60 innings. His BB% is 4.7% which is No. 13 among those 105 starters and one thing that has picked up is his K% that is 31.7% over his last five starts, No. 6 of the 37 starters that have gone at least 30 innings since the end of July. Play (908) Arizona Diamondbacks
CFB 11-3 run back to last year and off an opening win on Georgia Tech! Week 1 Thu-Sat Posted! MLB 21-14 +$9,830 L35! 2-0 Double Play tonight! NFL +$72,010 in profits L12 years! Week 1 posted soon! CFL on a 9-5 Run!
YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
Top Handicappers Profit
Matt Fargo Sports $1500.00
Marc Lawrence $300.00
2024 Sun Belt Conference Preview
By Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/
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Regular Season Win Totals and SBC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)
Appalachian State: 8 Over -130 Under +110/+275 SBC Winner
Texas State: 8 Over -135 Under +115/+400 SBC Winner
James Madison: 8 Over -130 Under +110/+750 SBC Winner
Louisiana: 7.5 Over -140 Under +120/+600 SBC Winner
Coastal Carolina: 6.5 Over +115 Under -135/+1,600 SBC Winner
South Alabama: 6.5 Over -150 Under +125/+850 SBC Winner
Troy: 6.5 Over +100 Under -120/+1,500 SBC Winner
Marshall: 6 Over +110 Under -130/+1,600 SBC Winner
Arkansas State: 5.5 Over -170 Under +140/+1,500 SBC Winner
Georgia Southern: 5.5 Over +120 Under -140/+2,200 SBC Winner
Georgia State: 4.5 Over +130 Under -155/+5,000 SBC Winner
Old Dominion: 4.5 Over +120 Under -140/+3,000 SBC Winner
Southern Miss: 4.5 Over +150 Under -185/+4,000 SBC Winner
Louisiana-Monroe: 2.5 Over +135 Under -160/+40,000 SBC Winner
Coaching Changes
Georgia State: Shawn Elliott Out ~ Dell McGee In
South Alabama: Kane Wommack Out ~ Major Applewhite In
James Madison: Curt Cignetti Out ~ Bob Chesney In
Louisiana Monroe: Terry Bowden Out ~ Bryant Vincent In
Troy: Jon Sumrall Out ~ Gerad Parker In
Appalachian State Mountaineers 9-5 ~ 6-3 SBC ~ 6-7-1 ATS ~ 7-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6
It has been a very consistent run for Appalachian St. which has never had a losing season since entering the FBS in 2014 and the only two times it was not bowl eligible was its first probation season and in 2022 when two of its wins were against FCS opponents. The Mountaineers have been to the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game in two of the last three years but have yet to win one for head coach Shawn Clark who is now in his fifth season, compiling a 34-18 record and he will be a sought out commodity if they are successful again which we expect they should be and are slight favorites despite the third straight seasons of retuning just 11 total starters. The offense has been steady, averaging at least 33.2 ppg every year since 2017 and the Mountaineers bring back one of the best quarterbacks in the conference in Joey Aguilar who passed for 3,757 yards with 33 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has his top four receivers coming back but the offensive line has just one starter back. The defense has regressed each of the last two seasons but there should be improvements with six starters back and a much better front seven. They get Clemson, East Carolina and Liberty in the nonconference slate and four of their five toughest SBC games are on the road so it will not be easy.
Texas State Bobcats 8-5 ~ 4-4 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 9
Texas St. was one of the bigger surprises in the conference last season as it had put together eight straight losing seasons but ended up 8-5 including a win in its first ever bowl game, a 45-21 win over Rice in the First Responder Bowl. It was safe to say things might gain traction under first year head coach G.J. Kinne when the Bobcats opened the season with an 11-point victory at Baylor as 27.5-point underdogs and things could have been better as three of the five losses were by one possession. After losing to Coastal Carolina and Arkansas St. following becoming bowl eligible, the latter a 77-31 defeat which was the Red Wolves only SBC win last season, Texas St. rolled in its last two games to bring momentum into this season. The Bobcats had Auburn transfer T.J. Finley last season and he was one of the best quarterbacks in the SBC and now they bring in James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud who was just as good. Overall, nine starters are back including top receiver and running back and four of five offensive linemen. Nine starters are back on a defense that regressed by close to a touchdown per game but will show improvements. UTSA and Arizona St. will present a challenge in the nonconference and they miss the top five SBC teams from the East Division while having only four true road games.
James Madison Dukes 11-2 ~ 7-1 SBC ~ 8-5-0 ATS ~ 8-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 3
It has been a seamless transition from the FCS to the FBS for James Madison as it has gone a combined 19-5 in its two seasons. The shift to a new division however meant a probationary period as James Madison could not compete for a conference championship for two years, and it would have been in the SBC Championship Game both seasons, and could not go to a bowl game in the initial season. The Dukes were able to get to a bowl game last season where they lost to Air Force 31-21 in the Armed Forces Bowl but the probation status is over and they can finally play for something real. The problem is, they lost so much from the sidelines, they might not have the talent in a very deep and top heavy East Division. Head coach Curt Cignetti left for Indiana and took a lot with him as overall, James Madison has only seven starters back. Former Holy Cross head coach Bob Chesney had a lot of success there and looks to keep the program rolling but it might take a season to come together. Quarterback Jordan McCloud transferred to Texas St. while the six top receivers and four top running backs are gone. On defense, the entire line will be new. A 3-1 nonconference record is possible and they get the two bottom teams from the West Division but they should struggle in the East.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 5-7-1 ATS ~ 8-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
Louisiana had to vacate 22 wins from 2011-2014 due to falsifying ACT scores for five players so four consecutive 9-4 seasons turned into a 14-16 combined stretch and it took time to recover but Bill Napier and finished his last three seasons 34-5 before heading to Florida. Michael Desormeaux took over in 2022 and was saddled with little to work with as he inherited 11 returning starters and the Cajuns had just 10 starters back last season. They went 6-7 both years, the losing records due to bowl losses, so in actuality, it was not all that bad given the situation and now in his third season, his systems and players are in place to get back to making title runs. Louisiana brings back seven starters on offense that was actually very effective last season despite injuries at the quarterback position where three were used. One of those was Chandler Fields who started four games and was very solid in his limited action. The Cajuns have to replace some key playmakers but have the top offensive line in the SBC. They have taken a big step back defensively the last two years but have eight starters back and should show significant improvement. The Cajuns have Tulane and Wake Forest out of conference and while they catch Appalachian St. they get them at home but do have to go to Texas St.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 8-5 ~ 5-3 SBC ~ 9-4-0 ATS ~ 4-9-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6
The Chanticleers entered the FBS in 2017 and it took three years to find their footing but then they took off. The 2020 COVID season was out of sorts for many but Coastal Carolina was not affected as it went 11-0 before losing to Liberty 37-34 in overtime in the Cure Bowl and it followed that up with an 11-2 mark in 2021. They have fallen off slightly the last two seasons but not much as they have gone a combined 17-9, however this could be a trying one for head coach Tim Beck who enters his second season. The offense stayed consistent with 2022 despite the fact the Chanticleers lost All-SBC quarterback Grayson McCall for the entire second half of the season. He has departed and there is a camp battle between Ethan Vasko, who started four games last season and Michigan St. transfer Noah Kim. They do lose their top two receivers but their top two running backs return as does three starters from the offensive line and Beck has an offensive past so they should be just fine. Only six starters are back on defense but only five came back last year and they improved by 8.0 ppg so this unit should not regress too much. A 3-1 nonconference mark is possible with the opener at Jacksonville St. being a swing game but the loaded East Division could be their undoing and they face Louisiana from the West.
South Alabama Jaguars 7-6 ~ 4-4 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 3
South Alabama played its first ever football game in 2009 as an unclassified program, became a member of the FCS for just one season in 2011 and then entered the FBS and the Sun Belt Conference in 2012. The Jaguars did not have a single winning season in its first 10 years but they went 10-3 in 2022 and then went 7-6 last season so head coach Kane Wommack had this team headed in the right direction but he bolted for Alabama to become the defensive coordinator. South Alabama promoted offensive coordinator Major Applewhite to become the head coach and he has had head coaching success at Houston and as the OC here, the offense improved in each of his three years. They will be fine system-wise but personnel wise is a different story with only four starters back as they lose their quarterback along with a 1,000-yard plus running back and a 1,000-yard plus receiver. It looks to be up to redshirt freshman quarterback Gio Lopez to lead the unit. The defense could be worse off with only three starters back, two of which reside in the secondary so the front seven is nearly a total rebuild and there will be a big drop-off from its 21 ppg allowed. The schedule is a tough one with a possible 1-3 nonconference mark and in the SBC, they draw Appalachian St. out of the East on the road.
Troy Trojans 11-3 ~ 8-1 SBC ~ 8-6-0 ATS ~ 6-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 2
Troy was at the top of the SBC from 2016-2018 where it went 20-4 (31-8 overall) but head coach Neal Brown left for West Virginia and Chip Lindsey was hired but failed to produce a winning record in three seasons. Kentucky defensive coordinator Jon Sumrall was hired in 2022 and led to Trojans to a 12-2 record which included an 11-game winning streak to end the season after a 1-2 start and he followed that up with an 11-3 record last season and his two seasons included a pair of SBC Championship Game victories. He took off for Tulane and Troy hired Gerad Parker who was the offensive coordinator at Notre Dame and his first year will be a challenge as the Trojans have only two starters back on each side of the ball. They took a huge hit on offense as they lose a 3rd Team All-SBC quarterback, a 1,661-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver so it will be up to Goose Crowder, who attempted only 13 passes last season, to take over behind an inexperienced line. Troy allowed 17.1 ppg each of the last two seasons but lose their entire defensive line and secondary so this could be big regression year. The nonconference slate includes games at Memphis and at Iowa and within the SBC, they avoid Appalachian St. from the East but face three teams in a four-game stretch coming off their bye week.
Marshall Thundering Herd 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 4-9-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5
Marshall is coming off its first losing season since 2016 as it went 6-7 with a 35-17 loss to UTSA in the Frisco Bowl solidifying the under .500 mark. It could have been worse though as the Thundering Herd opened the season 4-0 but then lost its next five games, the last four by double digits and they could have cashed it in but won two of their last three games to become bowl eligible. While a losing season is never good to reflect on, the fact Marshall has gone to a bowl game in 10 of the last 11 years is very impressive for a team from a non-power conference where there is always shuffling between top and bottom and it is still something to build on. It could be another challenging season as Marshall brings back only 10 starters, its fewest since 2016 and it affects both sides of the ball. The offense has dipped each of the last three seasons with the quarterback play beyond horrible last season and the Herd are hoping Wake Forest transfer Mitch Griffis can provide a spark but there is not much around him. The defense allowed 12.7 more ppg than it did in 2022 but it was a new system and even with only five starters back, they should improve. Following a likely 2-2 nonconference record, they host Appalachian St. and also get to face the four worst teams in the SBC so the slate could save them.
Arkansas State Red Wolves 3-9 ~ 1-7 SBC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 6
Arkansas St. went through five head coaches in five years from 2010-2014 with the last four all having success and eventually moving on. That included Blake Anderson who had six straight winning seasons before the 4-7 COVID year and he then left for Utah St. and the Red Wolves made another big hire in Butch Jones yet it did not start out well with a 5-19 record in his first two seasons but he got them bowl eligible last year before losing to Northern Illinois 21-19 in the Camellia Bowl. Now is the time to bring the big winning years back as everything is in place with the most experienced team in the conference and the fifth most experienced team in the country. The Red Wolves have 10 starters back on offense with the right guard only needing to be replaced. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor was named the SBC Freshman of the Year after a solid season and will only get better as they should surpass 30 ppg after averaging 27.1 ppg in 2023. The defense has only six starters back but all 11 starters are either juniors or seniors so expect a big improvement on this side of the ball after allowing over 30 ppg each of the last five years. Michigan and Iowa St. are losses outside the SBC and while the two tough West games against Texas St. and Louisiana are on the road, they get ODU and Georgia St. from the East.
Georgia Southern Eagles 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 8
Georgia Southern had its most successful season since coming into the FBS and the SBC in 2014 when it went 10-3 in 2018 under head coach Chad Lunsford but even after two more winning seasons following that, he was fired the next season after just four games following a 1-3 start. The Eagles were able to make a big hire as they snagged former USC head coach Clay Helton in 2022 and while it has been an average start with a pair of 6-7 seasons, brand new systems were put into place on both sides and those take time so this could be the breakout year they have been looking forward to for a while. The offense brings back only five starters after having eight return in each of the previous two seasons but there is a lot of talent and experience. It will be up to quarterback JC French to continue to lead a potent spread passing attack. The offensive line is weak and will have to learn quickly on the fly but four of the projected starters know the system. Eight starters are back on defense that has not been great but they are loaded up front and can make a big move up the rankings. It is a tough nonconference slate but they get Boise St. at home and arguably their four toughest conference games are all at home and the get the two worst teams in the East on the road.
Georgia State Panthers 7-6 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6
It was a rough start for Georgia St. in its first four years at the FBS level where it went 10-39. After spending seven years in South Carolina, Georgia St. hired Shawn Elliott as their head coach in 2017 and while there were some ups and downs, he produced five winning records in his seven seasons before resigning in February to go back to South Carolina. He did leave on a winning note as after starting 6-1, the Panthers lost their last five regular season games but defeated Utah St. 45-22 in the Idaho Potato Bowl. New head coach Dell McGee spent the last eight years at Georgia as the run game coordinator and he comes into a tough situation. Georgia St. is No. 113 in the country in experience and brings back only four offensive starters. The Eagles lose quarterback Darren Grainger who is No. 2 in passing yards in program history as well as their top receiver and top running back. Additionally, four offensive line starters have to be replaced. They are better off on defense but not by much as they lose three of their top five tacklers and they do have significant holes on all three levels while breaking in a new system with a new defensive coordinator. The nonconference schedule is not bad but the SBC schedule is brutal with all four road games against contenders in their divisions.
Old Dominion Monarchs 6-7 ~ 5-3 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6
Old Dominion has had only one winning season since coming up to the FBS level in 2014 as it went 10-3 in 2016 but it has had some success of late. The Monarchs had one of the worst two-year stretches you will ever see as they went 1-11 in 2019 and then completely shut football down during the 2020 COVID year but did make it to a bowl game the following year and again last season but lost both of those. It is a good building block but they bring back only 10 starters although they brought back just nine starters last season and were the fifth least experienced team in the country yet went to a bowl game so strange things can happen. The problem this year is that they face the second toughest schedule in the conference. Six starters are back on offense led by quarterback Grant Wilson who was fairly solid and should be better after 11 starts. Three running backs rushed for 606, 609 and 637 yards and he was one of those with the other two gone. The defense has been the issue as they have not allowed fewer than 27 ppg since 2010 and that likely will not change this year. They face four nonconference teams that are likely to go bowling so an 0-4 start runs into back-to-back road games. They get Appalachian St. on the road and have to face two of the top teams from the West.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 3-9 ~ 2-6 SBC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6
Southern Miss opened last season with a win over Alcorn St. of the FCS and then went on to lose its next seven games, five of those by double digits but there was no quit as the Golden Eagles won their next two games despite no chance to go to a bowl before getting blown out by Mississippi St. and Troy to end the season. Despite some solid teams over the years, they have reached 10 wins only once since 1989 and have won exactly three games in three of the last four seasons. This is the fourth season for head coach Will Hall and he is likely on the hot seat but his one saving grace is that he brought in the best recruiting class of any team in the SBC so that could string on another year if thing do not go completely right. Southern Miss brings back just four starters on offense and it loses their starting quarterback but that is not a bad thing. They brought in Florida St. transfer Tate Rodemaker who does not have a ton of experience but played with and against great talent. The defense regressed by over 12 ppg last season as they were crushed by injuries but they got more experience from that which will help this season. Southern Miss has a chance to go 3-1 in nonconference games and the SBC is not too bad as they miss Appalachian St. and do not face a single team off a bye.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 2-10 ~ 0-8 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6
Louisiana-Monroe has been a bottom feeder in the SBC since joining in 2001 as it has won five or more games only four times and none one not time since 2012 which was the only season they have ever been to a bowl game. The recent stretch has been brutal as the Warhawks went 0-10 in the 2020 COVID year and followed that up with a pair of 4-8 campaigns. Last season, they opened 2-0 including a win over Army but closed the season with 10 straight losses and ended up getting doubled up in scoring margin (17.3-34.9). Louisiana-Monroe is just 5-26 in the conference over this four-year stretch and it is not going to get much better this year. Head coach Terry Bowden could not turn things around and now it is up to Bryant Vince who has one year of head coaching experience when he went 7-6 at UAB as an interim head coach. The offense brings back their leading rusher and one offensive lineman and that is it. The quarterback situation is a mess and their leading retuning receiver had only 71 yards last season. The defense was abysmal and there is not enough talent to muster any improvement to make up for the offense. Making it worse, they are at Texas and Auburn and they will be significant underdogs in every SBC game. A game against FCS Jackson St. to open the season could be the only win.
By Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/
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Regular Season Win Totals and SBC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)
Appalachian State: 8 Over -130 Under +110/+275 SBC Winner
Texas State: 8 Over -135 Under +115/+400 SBC Winner
James Madison: 8 Over -130 Under +110/+750 SBC Winner
Louisiana: 7.5 Over -140 Under +120/+600 SBC Winner
Coastal Carolina: 6.5 Over +115 Under -135/+1,600 SBC Winner
South Alabama: 6.5 Over -150 Under +125/+850 SBC Winner
Troy: 6.5 Over +100 Under -120/+1,500 SBC Winner
Marshall: 6 Over +110 Under -130/+1,600 SBC Winner
Arkansas State: 5.5 Over -170 Under +140/+1,500 SBC Winner
Georgia Southern: 5.5 Over +120 Under -140/+2,200 SBC Winner
Georgia State: 4.5 Over +130 Under -155/+5,000 SBC Winner
Old Dominion: 4.5 Over +120 Under -140/+3,000 SBC Winner
Southern Miss: 4.5 Over +150 Under -185/+4,000 SBC Winner
Louisiana-Monroe: 2.5 Over +135 Under -160/+40,000 SBC Winner
Coaching Changes
Georgia State: Shawn Elliott Out ~ Dell McGee In
South Alabama: Kane Wommack Out ~ Major Applewhite In
James Madison: Curt Cignetti Out ~ Bob Chesney In
Louisiana Monroe: Terry Bowden Out ~ Bryant Vincent In
Troy: Jon Sumrall Out ~ Gerad Parker In
Appalachian State Mountaineers 9-5 ~ 6-3 SBC ~ 6-7-1 ATS ~ 7-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6
It has been a very consistent run for Appalachian St. which has never had a losing season since entering the FBS in 2014 and the only two times it was not bowl eligible was its first probation season and in 2022 when two of its wins were against FCS opponents. The Mountaineers have been to the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game in two of the last three years but have yet to win one for head coach Shawn Clark who is now in his fifth season, compiling a 34-18 record and he will be a sought out commodity if they are successful again which we expect they should be and are slight favorites despite the third straight seasons of retuning just 11 total starters. The offense has been steady, averaging at least 33.2 ppg every year since 2017 and the Mountaineers bring back one of the best quarterbacks in the conference in Joey Aguilar who passed for 3,757 yards with 33 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has his top four receivers coming back but the offensive line has just one starter back. The defense has regressed each of the last two seasons but there should be improvements with six starters back and a much better front seven. They get Clemson, East Carolina and Liberty in the nonconference slate and four of their five toughest SBC games are on the road so it will not be easy.
Texas State Bobcats 8-5 ~ 4-4 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 9
Texas St. was one of the bigger surprises in the conference last season as it had put together eight straight losing seasons but ended up 8-5 including a win in its first ever bowl game, a 45-21 win over Rice in the First Responder Bowl. It was safe to say things might gain traction under first year head coach G.J. Kinne when the Bobcats opened the season with an 11-point victory at Baylor as 27.5-point underdogs and things could have been better as three of the five losses were by one possession. After losing to Coastal Carolina and Arkansas St. following becoming bowl eligible, the latter a 77-31 defeat which was the Red Wolves only SBC win last season, Texas St. rolled in its last two games to bring momentum into this season. The Bobcats had Auburn transfer T.J. Finley last season and he was one of the best quarterbacks in the SBC and now they bring in James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud who was just as good. Overall, nine starters are back including top receiver and running back and four of five offensive linemen. Nine starters are back on a defense that regressed by close to a touchdown per game but will show improvements. UTSA and Arizona St. will present a challenge in the nonconference and they miss the top five SBC teams from the East Division while having only four true road games.
James Madison Dukes 11-2 ~ 7-1 SBC ~ 8-5-0 ATS ~ 8-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 3
It has been a seamless transition from the FCS to the FBS for James Madison as it has gone a combined 19-5 in its two seasons. The shift to a new division however meant a probationary period as James Madison could not compete for a conference championship for two years, and it would have been in the SBC Championship Game both seasons, and could not go to a bowl game in the initial season. The Dukes were able to get to a bowl game last season where they lost to Air Force 31-21 in the Armed Forces Bowl but the probation status is over and they can finally play for something real. The problem is, they lost so much from the sidelines, they might not have the talent in a very deep and top heavy East Division. Head coach Curt Cignetti left for Indiana and took a lot with him as overall, James Madison has only seven starters back. Former Holy Cross head coach Bob Chesney had a lot of success there and looks to keep the program rolling but it might take a season to come together. Quarterback Jordan McCloud transferred to Texas St. while the six top receivers and four top running backs are gone. On defense, the entire line will be new. A 3-1 nonconference record is possible and they get the two bottom teams from the West Division but they should struggle in the East.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 5-7-1 ATS ~ 8-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
Louisiana had to vacate 22 wins from 2011-2014 due to falsifying ACT scores for five players so four consecutive 9-4 seasons turned into a 14-16 combined stretch and it took time to recover but Bill Napier and finished his last three seasons 34-5 before heading to Florida. Michael Desormeaux took over in 2022 and was saddled with little to work with as he inherited 11 returning starters and the Cajuns had just 10 starters back last season. They went 6-7 both years, the losing records due to bowl losses, so in actuality, it was not all that bad given the situation and now in his third season, his systems and players are in place to get back to making title runs. Louisiana brings back seven starters on offense that was actually very effective last season despite injuries at the quarterback position where three were used. One of those was Chandler Fields who started four games and was very solid in his limited action. The Cajuns have to replace some key playmakers but have the top offensive line in the SBC. They have taken a big step back defensively the last two years but have eight starters back and should show significant improvement. The Cajuns have Tulane and Wake Forest out of conference and while they catch Appalachian St. they get them at home but do have to go to Texas St.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 8-5 ~ 5-3 SBC ~ 9-4-0 ATS ~ 4-9-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6
The Chanticleers entered the FBS in 2017 and it took three years to find their footing but then they took off. The 2020 COVID season was out of sorts for many but Coastal Carolina was not affected as it went 11-0 before losing to Liberty 37-34 in overtime in the Cure Bowl and it followed that up with an 11-2 mark in 2021. They have fallen off slightly the last two seasons but not much as they have gone a combined 17-9, however this could be a trying one for head coach Tim Beck who enters his second season. The offense stayed consistent with 2022 despite the fact the Chanticleers lost All-SBC quarterback Grayson McCall for the entire second half of the season. He has departed and there is a camp battle between Ethan Vasko, who started four games last season and Michigan St. transfer Noah Kim. They do lose their top two receivers but their top two running backs return as does three starters from the offensive line and Beck has an offensive past so they should be just fine. Only six starters are back on defense but only five came back last year and they improved by 8.0 ppg so this unit should not regress too much. A 3-1 nonconference mark is possible with the opener at Jacksonville St. being a swing game but the loaded East Division could be their undoing and they face Louisiana from the West.
South Alabama Jaguars 7-6 ~ 4-4 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 3
South Alabama played its first ever football game in 2009 as an unclassified program, became a member of the FCS for just one season in 2011 and then entered the FBS and the Sun Belt Conference in 2012. The Jaguars did not have a single winning season in its first 10 years but they went 10-3 in 2022 and then went 7-6 last season so head coach Kane Wommack had this team headed in the right direction but he bolted for Alabama to become the defensive coordinator. South Alabama promoted offensive coordinator Major Applewhite to become the head coach and he has had head coaching success at Houston and as the OC here, the offense improved in each of his three years. They will be fine system-wise but personnel wise is a different story with only four starters back as they lose their quarterback along with a 1,000-yard plus running back and a 1,000-yard plus receiver. It looks to be up to redshirt freshman quarterback Gio Lopez to lead the unit. The defense could be worse off with only three starters back, two of which reside in the secondary so the front seven is nearly a total rebuild and there will be a big drop-off from its 21 ppg allowed. The schedule is a tough one with a possible 1-3 nonconference mark and in the SBC, they draw Appalachian St. out of the East on the road.
Troy Trojans 11-3 ~ 8-1 SBC ~ 8-6-0 ATS ~ 6-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 2
Troy was at the top of the SBC from 2016-2018 where it went 20-4 (31-8 overall) but head coach Neal Brown left for West Virginia and Chip Lindsey was hired but failed to produce a winning record in three seasons. Kentucky defensive coordinator Jon Sumrall was hired in 2022 and led to Trojans to a 12-2 record which included an 11-game winning streak to end the season after a 1-2 start and he followed that up with an 11-3 record last season and his two seasons included a pair of SBC Championship Game victories. He took off for Tulane and Troy hired Gerad Parker who was the offensive coordinator at Notre Dame and his first year will be a challenge as the Trojans have only two starters back on each side of the ball. They took a huge hit on offense as they lose a 3rd Team All-SBC quarterback, a 1,661-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver so it will be up to Goose Crowder, who attempted only 13 passes last season, to take over behind an inexperienced line. Troy allowed 17.1 ppg each of the last two seasons but lose their entire defensive line and secondary so this could be big regression year. The nonconference slate includes games at Memphis and at Iowa and within the SBC, they avoid Appalachian St. from the East but face three teams in a four-game stretch coming off their bye week.
Marshall Thundering Herd 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 4-9-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5
Marshall is coming off its first losing season since 2016 as it went 6-7 with a 35-17 loss to UTSA in the Frisco Bowl solidifying the under .500 mark. It could have been worse though as the Thundering Herd opened the season 4-0 but then lost its next five games, the last four by double digits and they could have cashed it in but won two of their last three games to become bowl eligible. While a losing season is never good to reflect on, the fact Marshall has gone to a bowl game in 10 of the last 11 years is very impressive for a team from a non-power conference where there is always shuffling between top and bottom and it is still something to build on. It could be another challenging season as Marshall brings back only 10 starters, its fewest since 2016 and it affects both sides of the ball. The offense has dipped each of the last three seasons with the quarterback play beyond horrible last season and the Herd are hoping Wake Forest transfer Mitch Griffis can provide a spark but there is not much around him. The defense allowed 12.7 more ppg than it did in 2022 but it was a new system and even with only five starters back, they should improve. Following a likely 2-2 nonconference record, they host Appalachian St. and also get to face the four worst teams in the SBC so the slate could save them.
Arkansas State Red Wolves 3-9 ~ 1-7 SBC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 6
Arkansas St. went through five head coaches in five years from 2010-2014 with the last four all having success and eventually moving on. That included Blake Anderson who had six straight winning seasons before the 4-7 COVID year and he then left for Utah St. and the Red Wolves made another big hire in Butch Jones yet it did not start out well with a 5-19 record in his first two seasons but he got them bowl eligible last year before losing to Northern Illinois 21-19 in the Camellia Bowl. Now is the time to bring the big winning years back as everything is in place with the most experienced team in the conference and the fifth most experienced team in the country. The Red Wolves have 10 starters back on offense with the right guard only needing to be replaced. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor was named the SBC Freshman of the Year after a solid season and will only get better as they should surpass 30 ppg after averaging 27.1 ppg in 2023. The defense has only six starters back but all 11 starters are either juniors or seniors so expect a big improvement on this side of the ball after allowing over 30 ppg each of the last five years. Michigan and Iowa St. are losses outside the SBC and while the two tough West games against Texas St. and Louisiana are on the road, they get ODU and Georgia St. from the East.
Georgia Southern Eagles 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 8
Georgia Southern had its most successful season since coming into the FBS and the SBC in 2014 when it went 10-3 in 2018 under head coach Chad Lunsford but even after two more winning seasons following that, he was fired the next season after just four games following a 1-3 start. The Eagles were able to make a big hire as they snagged former USC head coach Clay Helton in 2022 and while it has been an average start with a pair of 6-7 seasons, brand new systems were put into place on both sides and those take time so this could be the breakout year they have been looking forward to for a while. The offense brings back only five starters after having eight return in each of the previous two seasons but there is a lot of talent and experience. It will be up to quarterback JC French to continue to lead a potent spread passing attack. The offensive line is weak and will have to learn quickly on the fly but four of the projected starters know the system. Eight starters are back on defense that has not been great but they are loaded up front and can make a big move up the rankings. It is a tough nonconference slate but they get Boise St. at home and arguably their four toughest conference games are all at home and the get the two worst teams in the East on the road.
Georgia State Panthers 7-6 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6
It was a rough start for Georgia St. in its first four years at the FBS level where it went 10-39. After spending seven years in South Carolina, Georgia St. hired Shawn Elliott as their head coach in 2017 and while there were some ups and downs, he produced five winning records in his seven seasons before resigning in February to go back to South Carolina. He did leave on a winning note as after starting 6-1, the Panthers lost their last five regular season games but defeated Utah St. 45-22 in the Idaho Potato Bowl. New head coach Dell McGee spent the last eight years at Georgia as the run game coordinator and he comes into a tough situation. Georgia St. is No. 113 in the country in experience and brings back only four offensive starters. The Eagles lose quarterback Darren Grainger who is No. 2 in passing yards in program history as well as their top receiver and top running back. Additionally, four offensive line starters have to be replaced. They are better off on defense but not by much as they lose three of their top five tacklers and they do have significant holes on all three levels while breaking in a new system with a new defensive coordinator. The nonconference schedule is not bad but the SBC schedule is brutal with all four road games against contenders in their divisions.
Old Dominion Monarchs 6-7 ~ 5-3 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6
Old Dominion has had only one winning season since coming up to the FBS level in 2014 as it went 10-3 in 2016 but it has had some success of late. The Monarchs had one of the worst two-year stretches you will ever see as they went 1-11 in 2019 and then completely shut football down during the 2020 COVID year but did make it to a bowl game the following year and again last season but lost both of those. It is a good building block but they bring back only 10 starters although they brought back just nine starters last season and were the fifth least experienced team in the country yet went to a bowl game so strange things can happen. The problem this year is that they face the second toughest schedule in the conference. Six starters are back on offense led by quarterback Grant Wilson who was fairly solid and should be better after 11 starts. Three running backs rushed for 606, 609 and 637 yards and he was one of those with the other two gone. The defense has been the issue as they have not allowed fewer than 27 ppg since 2010 and that likely will not change this year. They face four nonconference teams that are likely to go bowling so an 0-4 start runs into back-to-back road games. They get Appalachian St. on the road and have to face two of the top teams from the West.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 3-9 ~ 2-6 SBC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6
Southern Miss opened last season with a win over Alcorn St. of the FCS and then went on to lose its next seven games, five of those by double digits but there was no quit as the Golden Eagles won their next two games despite no chance to go to a bowl before getting blown out by Mississippi St. and Troy to end the season. Despite some solid teams over the years, they have reached 10 wins only once since 1989 and have won exactly three games in three of the last four seasons. This is the fourth season for head coach Will Hall and he is likely on the hot seat but his one saving grace is that he brought in the best recruiting class of any team in the SBC so that could string on another year if thing do not go completely right. Southern Miss brings back just four starters on offense and it loses their starting quarterback but that is not a bad thing. They brought in Florida St. transfer Tate Rodemaker who does not have a ton of experience but played with and against great talent. The defense regressed by over 12 ppg last season as they were crushed by injuries but they got more experience from that which will help this season. Southern Miss has a chance to go 3-1 in nonconference games and the SBC is not too bad as they miss Appalachian St. and do not face a single team off a bye.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 2-10 ~ 0-8 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6
Louisiana-Monroe has been a bottom feeder in the SBC since joining in 2001 as it has won five or more games only four times and none one not time since 2012 which was the only season they have ever been to a bowl game. The recent stretch has been brutal as the Warhawks went 0-10 in the 2020 COVID year and followed that up with a pair of 4-8 campaigns. Last season, they opened 2-0 including a win over Army but closed the season with 10 straight losses and ended up getting doubled up in scoring margin (17.3-34.9). Louisiana-Monroe is just 5-26 in the conference over this four-year stretch and it is not going to get much better this year. Head coach Terry Bowden could not turn things around and now it is up to Bryant Vince who has one year of head coaching experience when he went 7-6 at UAB as an interim head coach. The offense brings back their leading rusher and one offensive lineman and that is it. The quarterback situation is a mess and their leading retuning receiver had only 71 yards last season. The defense was abysmal and there is not enough talent to muster any improvement to make up for the offense. Making it worse, they are at Texas and Auburn and they will be significant underdogs in every SBC game. A game against FCS Jackson St. to open the season could be the only win.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Free Pick 8-27-24
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Matt Fargo Sports Tampa Bay Rays +138
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MLB 08/27 9:40 PM Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays 138
s is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our Tuesday Free Play. Tampa Bay is coming off a 5-1 series opening loss on Monday to make it two straight losses and dropped the Rays back under .500. Because of the top heavy American League, Tampa Bay is likely too far out to make a Wild Card run as it is seven games out they have not tossed it in yet. The Rays have played well on the road where they are just one game under .500 and are not getting any respect here despite a pitching matchup that is far from a big edge for the Mariners. Seattle has won two straight and three of its last four games to move two games over .500 and like the Rays, they are in the same boat in the Wild Card standings but they still are very much alive in the American League West where they are 3.5 games behind the suddenly struggling Astros. The Mariners have been the epitome of the classic home/road split as they are 40-27 here in Seattle compared to going 27-38 on the road and that is certainly a reason they are the heavy chalk, even more so than last night. Jeffrey Springs is making his comeback from having Tommy John surgery in April of 2023 and while the last couple months are nothing more than getting back into the groove without being pushed, he is getting comfortable. His first two starts were nothing great but he found something in his next two outings against Baltimore and Arizona which is saying something as those are two of the best offenses in the league. He faced in his last start against Oakland but now has a dream matchup. Despite a solid record at home, Seattle is dead last in home average at .207 and second to last in home OPS at .646 and making it worse tonight is facing a lefty as the Mariners are hitting .206 against left-handed pitching which is the worst in all of baseball while their .643 OPS is second worst. Logan Gilbert is having a solid season with a 3.21 ERA and 0.91 WHIP but he has been showing inconsistencies as he has a 5.74 ERA over his last five starts and while he has been mostly on the great side of his starts, the offense behind him has limited him to only seven wins and going back, the Mariners are 1-6 in his last seven starts. Play (919) Tampa Bay Rays
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Lou Lacerda $1040.00
Marc Lawrence $414.00
Mikhail Kivowitz $81.00
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Matt Fargo Sports Tampa Bay Rays +138
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MLB 08/27 9:40 PM Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays 138
s is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our Tuesday Free Play. Tampa Bay is coming off a 5-1 series opening loss on Monday to make it two straight losses and dropped the Rays back under .500. Because of the top heavy American League, Tampa Bay is likely too far out to make a Wild Card run as it is seven games out they have not tossed it in yet. The Rays have played well on the road where they are just one game under .500 and are not getting any respect here despite a pitching matchup that is far from a big edge for the Mariners. Seattle has won two straight and three of its last four games to move two games over .500 and like the Rays, they are in the same boat in the Wild Card standings but they still are very much alive in the American League West where they are 3.5 games behind the suddenly struggling Astros. The Mariners have been the epitome of the classic home/road split as they are 40-27 here in Seattle compared to going 27-38 on the road and that is certainly a reason they are the heavy chalk, even more so than last night. Jeffrey Springs is making his comeback from having Tommy John surgery in April of 2023 and while the last couple months are nothing more than getting back into the groove without being pushed, he is getting comfortable. His first two starts were nothing great but he found something in his next two outings against Baltimore and Arizona which is saying something as those are two of the best offenses in the league. He faced in his last start against Oakland but now has a dream matchup. Despite a solid record at home, Seattle is dead last in home average at .207 and second to last in home OPS at .646 and making it worse tonight is facing a lefty as the Mariners are hitting .206 against left-handed pitching which is the worst in all of baseball while their .643 OPS is second worst. Logan Gilbert is having a solid season with a 3.21 ERA and 0.91 WHIP but he has been showing inconsistencies as he has a 5.74 ERA over his last five starts and while he has been mostly on the great side of his starts, the offense behind him has limited him to only seven wins and going back, the Mariners are 1-6 in his last seven starts. Play (919) Tampa Bay Rays
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Lou Lacerda $1040.00
Marc Lawrence $414.00
Mikhail Kivowitz $81.00
Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins Free Pick 8-26-24
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Matt Fargo Sports Minnesota Twins Even
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MLB 08/26 7:40 PM Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins 100
s is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our Monday Free Play. The weekend did not go as planned for Minnesota which lost two of three against St. Louis for its second straight series loss following a 3-2 on Sunday. The Twins are still hanging tough in the American League Central as they trail the Guardians by three games along with the Royals with both sitting 4.5 games ahead of Boston for the final two Wild Card spots. The offense continues to smash as since the All Star Break, Minnesota is No. 7 in OPS at .752 and No. 8 in wRC+ at 112. The Twins remain home where they are 37-26 and the offense has led the way with a league leading .794 OPS and the second highest expected wOBA at .367. Atlanta had its three-game winning streak snapped with a 1 loss against Washington on Sunday and it hits the road on a 6-2 run over its last eight games which has put the Braves six games behind the Phillies in the National League East and two games up on the Mets in the Wild Card. They are two games over .500 on the road and come in as the false favorite because of the name while the injury bug simply will not go away. Bailey Ober is part of a strong Minnesota rotation and he has quietly gone about his business for a third straight season as he has a 3.54 ERA which is right in line with his 3.34 xERA. He has tossed 11 straight quality outings going back to June 16 and has a 2.09 ERA which is third best in baseball among qualified starters and his BAA of .166 is No. 2. He is ranked No. 8 in K-BB% over this stretch and this has been a strength as over the last two full seasons, 58 starters have gone at least 250 innings and he is No. 10 in K-BB% and he is No. 3 in WHIP at 1.03. Max Fried is coming off a solid outing against the Phillies as he allowed two runs over seven innings but we do not think he is still totally right. He has been less consistent and since returning from injury, he has not looked the same as he has a 6.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in three starts while posting a 24:12 K:BB ratio. His struggles go back further with his command as since June 11, he has a 9.9% BB% which is No. 98 among 110 starters that have gone at least 50 innings and he has another tough one here. Play (972) Minnesota Twins
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YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
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TKwins (Tommy King) $2000.00
Anlyedge $1900.00
Damian Sosh $1000.00
Lou Lacerda $1000.00
James Patrick Sports $500.00
Marc Lawrence $300.00
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Matt Fargo Sports Minnesota Twins Even
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MLB 08/26 7:40 PM Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins 100
s is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our Monday Free Play. The weekend did not go as planned for Minnesota which lost two of three against St. Louis for its second straight series loss following a 3-2 on Sunday. The Twins are still hanging tough in the American League Central as they trail the Guardians by three games along with the Royals with both sitting 4.5 games ahead of Boston for the final two Wild Card spots. The offense continues to smash as since the All Star Break, Minnesota is No. 7 in OPS at .752 and No. 8 in wRC+ at 112. The Twins remain home where they are 37-26 and the offense has led the way with a league leading .794 OPS and the second highest expected wOBA at .367. Atlanta had its three-game winning streak snapped with a 1 loss against Washington on Sunday and it hits the road on a 6-2 run over its last eight games which has put the Braves six games behind the Phillies in the National League East and two games up on the Mets in the Wild Card. They are two games over .500 on the road and come in as the false favorite because of the name while the injury bug simply will not go away. Bailey Ober is part of a strong Minnesota rotation and he has quietly gone about his business for a third straight season as he has a 3.54 ERA which is right in line with his 3.34 xERA. He has tossed 11 straight quality outings going back to June 16 and has a 2.09 ERA which is third best in baseball among qualified starters and his BAA of .166 is No. 2. He is ranked No. 8 in K-BB% over this stretch and this has been a strength as over the last two full seasons, 58 starters have gone at least 250 innings and he is No. 10 in K-BB% and he is No. 3 in WHIP at 1.03. Max Fried is coming off a solid outing against the Phillies as he allowed two runs over seven innings but we do not think he is still totally right. He has been less consistent and since returning from injury, he has not looked the same as he has a 6.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in three starts while posting a 24:12 K:BB ratio. His struggles go back further with his command as since June 11, he has a 9.9% BB% which is No. 98 among 110 starters that have gone at least 50 innings and he has another tough one here. Play (972) Minnesota Twins
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YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
Top Handicappers Profit
TKwins (Tommy King) $2000.00
Anlyedge $1900.00
Damian Sosh $1000.00
Lou Lacerda $1000.00
James Patrick Sports $500.00
Marc Lawrence $300.00
New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Free Pick 8-25-24
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Matt Fargo Sports San Diego Padres -116
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MLB 08/25 4:10 PM New York Mets vs San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres -116
s is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our Sunday Free Play. The Padres dropped Game Three of this series on Saturday 7-1 but only three of those New York runs were earned and San Diego will be out to split this series and avoid falling further behind the Dodgers in the National League West as they are now 4.5 games out following a 4-5 run. They dropped to 36-32 at home and a loss here brings the Mets and Braves back into play for the final two spots in the National League Wild Card between these three teams. New York has won three of its last four games to pull within 2.5 games of the Braves for that final Wild Card spot. The Mets are now four games over .500 on the road and they have a very similar offense as the Padres which is part of the reason this number is as short as it is but the Mets have a huge pitching disadvantage despite what the top level numbers are showing. Jose Quintana is coming off another bad start as he allowed seven runs in five innings against Baltimore to push his ERA to 4.57 that includes a 9.19 ERA over his last three outings. He has a 4.97 xERA and he has been fortunate with career best numbers in BABIP and Strand Rate which are both above league averages. He has a 5.12 FIP and 4.69 xFIP with the former being the worst among 62 qualifies starters. The Padres remain a top offense in baseball as they are tied for No. 6 in wOBA at .324. Martin Perez does have a tough matchup against a Mets offense but they have been up and down of late while Perez has been pitching his best of the season. He has allowed three runs or less in five straight starts where he has posted a 2.17 ERA over 29 innings. Overall, he has a 4.67 ERA in his 19 starts with most of the damage done while with Pittsburgh as he has a 1.96 ERA since coming over to San Diego to go along with a 21:3 K:BB ratio. Play (908) San Diego Padres
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YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
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Matt Fargo Sports $3100.00
Brian Bitler $2850.00
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Mikhail Kivowitz $500.00
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Matt Fargo Sports San Diego Padres -116
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MLB 08/25 4:10 PM New York Mets vs San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres -116
s is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our Sunday Free Play. The Padres dropped Game Three of this series on Saturday 7-1 but only three of those New York runs were earned and San Diego will be out to split this series and avoid falling further behind the Dodgers in the National League West as they are now 4.5 games out following a 4-5 run. They dropped to 36-32 at home and a loss here brings the Mets and Braves back into play for the final two spots in the National League Wild Card between these three teams. New York has won three of its last four games to pull within 2.5 games of the Braves for that final Wild Card spot. The Mets are now four games over .500 on the road and they have a very similar offense as the Padres which is part of the reason this number is as short as it is but the Mets have a huge pitching disadvantage despite what the top level numbers are showing. Jose Quintana is coming off another bad start as he allowed seven runs in five innings against Baltimore to push his ERA to 4.57 that includes a 9.19 ERA over his last three outings. He has a 4.97 xERA and he has been fortunate with career best numbers in BABIP and Strand Rate which are both above league averages. He has a 5.12 FIP and 4.69 xFIP with the former being the worst among 62 qualifies starters. The Padres remain a top offense in baseball as they are tied for No. 6 in wOBA at .324. Martin Perez does have a tough matchup against a Mets offense but they have been up and down of late while Perez has been pitching his best of the season. He has allowed three runs or less in five straight starts where he has posted a 2.17 ERA over 29 innings. Overall, he has a 4.67 ERA in his 19 starts with most of the damage done while with Pittsburgh as he has a 1.96 ERA since coming over to San Diego to go along with a 21:3 K:BB ratio. Play (908) San Diego Padres
MLB 17-8 +$11,100 L25 with a Triple Play today! CFB 11-3 run back to last season and off a season opening win on Georgia Tech! Week 1 on deck! NFL +$72,010 in profits L12 years! Week 1 posted soon! CFL on a 9-5 Run!
YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
Top Handicappers Profit
Matt Fargo Sports $3100.00
Brian Bitler $2850.00
The Winning Picks $2700.00
Marc Lawrence $606.00
Mikhail Kivowitz $500.00
2024 Southeastern Conference Preview
BY Matt Fargo
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Regular Season Win Totals and SEC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)
Georgia: 10.5 Over -125 Under +105/+190 SEC Winner
Texas: 10.5 Over +150 Under -180/+320 SEC Winner
Ole Miss: 9.5 Over -115 Under -105/+650 SEC Winner
Alabama: 9.5 Over +120 Under -140/+750 SEC Winner
LSU: 9 Over -120 Under +100/+1,000 SEC Winner
Missouri: 9.5 Over +135 Under -160/+1,800 SEC Winner
Tennessee: 8.5 Over -170 Under +145/+1,600 SEC Winner
Texas A&M: 8.5 Over -120 Under +100/+1,400 SEC Winner
Auburn: 7.5 Over +125 Under -145/+6,000 SEC Winner
Oklahoma: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100/+3,000 SEC Winner
Kentucky: 6.5 Over -115 Under -105/+10,000 SEC Winner
Arkansas: 4.5 Over -110 Under -110/+25,000 SEC Winner
Florida: 4.5 Over -155 Under +130/+12,000 SEC Winner
South Carolina: 5.5 Over -115 Under -105/+12,000 SEC Winner
Mississippi State: 4 Over -150 Under +130/+40,000 SEC Winner
Vanderbilt: 3 Over -125 Under +105/+100,000 SEC Winner
Coaching Changes
Alabama: Nick Saban Out ~ Kalen DeBoer In
Mississippi St.: Zach Arnett Out ~ Jeff Lebby In
Texas A&M: Jimbo Fisher Out ~ Mike Elko In
Georgia Bulldogs 13-1 ~ 8-0 SEC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7
Georgia was cruising along as it posted a perfect 12-0 regular season and was well on its way to try and win a third straight National Championship but was upset by Alabama 27-24 which knocked it out of the top four and put the Tide into the CFP. Georgia is the epitome of a team that reloads instead of rebuilds and that is the case again this season. They brought back 13 starters in 2021 and 10 starters in 2022 in their championship seasons while last season they had 13 starters back and were once again No. 1 throughout the season. The Bulldogs bring back 14 starters, their most since 2017, and they come in as the favorite once again. Quarterback Carson Beck will be a Heisman Trophy favorite and while they need to replace their top two rushers and three of their top four receivers, they will be just fine, especially having one of the best offensive lines in the country. The defense allowed its most points since 2000, but giving up 15.6 ppg is still pretty darn good and they will be better with seven starters back and they are loaded. They are stacked at all three levels and have the potential to match the 2021 unit. They open with Clemson, their only true nonconference test, while the SEC is no cakewalk with an early game at Alabama and later games at Texas and Mississippi.
Texas Longhorns 12-2 ~ 8-1 Big 12 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
Texas is in its inaugural season in the SEC and while it is a significant upgrade from the Big 12, the Longhorns are expected to give Georgia all it can handle to claim the SEC. Their only regular season loss was against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry on a last second touchdown but they still made it to the CFP where they had a chance to beat Washington but failed with three straight incompletions in the final seconds from the 12-yard line. It was the first double-digit winning season since 2018 and this team looks to be back at the top for the foreseeable future. Texas has seven starters back on offense highlighted by quarterback Quinn Ewers but like Georgia, a lot has to be replaced around the quarterback as Texas loses its top rusher and top five receivers but it has an offensive line that rivals that of the Bulldogs. While the defense will not have to carry the offense, it could if needed even with what is considered a weak defensive line after losing their two best players. The Longhorns make up for it with top four units in the SEC at linebacker and secondary. They face an improved Colorado St. team before heading to Michigan in Week 2. The SEC slate is one of the best as of the top seven teams not including them, they miss five and while the one is Georgia, it is at home.
Mississippi Rebels 11-2 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5
The Rebels have been on the cusp of something really special in each of the last three seasons but have not been able to get over the hump as Alabama has gotten in the way twice in 2021 and 2023 and LSU stopped their 7-0 start in 2022. Head coach Lane Kiffin is brash and cocky to a lot of people but he wins and he has turned this program around with double-digit winning seasons two of the last three years as prior to this, Mississippi produced only three 10-win seasons since 1963. This edition of the Rebels could and should be the best of them all as they come into 2024 as the most experienced team in the SEC and No. 13 in the country thanks to 20 returning starters. Quarterback Jaxson Dart would arguably be the top quarterback in every other Power 4 Conference but the SEC is loaded at that position so he might be flying under the radar with a loaded receiving corps and a top offensive line in front of him. Defense has always been an issue in Oxford but last season the Rebels allowed their fewest points since 2014 and after bringing in a haul through the transfer portal, they should be even better. The nonconference slate is a joke and of the 10 teams with win totals of 7.5 or more, they face only three of those and two are at home while they avoid both Texas and Alabama.
Alabama Crimson Tide 12-2 ~ 8-0 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 9-2-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 6
Alabama suffered an early season loss to Texas but did not slip up the remainder of the season, including a miracle win at Auburn, to make it to the CFP for the eighth time before getting upended by Michigan in overtime, showing how important it is to lose early if you are going to lose. That was the 16th consecutive season with double digit wins but those of course were all under head coach Nick Saban who called it a career as arguably the greatest college coach of all time and now Kalan DeBoer walks into the footsteps of a legend. He will not be intimidated as he has been in the national spotlight and while the pressure will be there to keep winning, he has the talent to do so. The offense revolves around quarterback Jalen Milroe but he loses 1,793 receiving yards from his top three receivers behind a fairly weak offensive line. Alabama has allowed 20 points or less in an incredible 16 straight seasons and that streak should continue despite losing a lot to the NFL. Their strength will be on the backend which is big in a conference loaded with quarterbacks. The schedule is one of the toughest in the country despite a fairly weak nonconference slate that includes a game at Wisconsin. They face six of the other top nine SEC teams while facing four teams coming off a bye week.
LSU Tigers 10-3 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 11-1-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6
Despite winning the National Championship in 2019, head coach Ed Orgeron was let go two years later despite one of those being the unpredictable COVID season but they seem to have made the right hire with Brian Kelly who has put together a 20-7 record in his first two seasons. The problem has been losing to Florida St. in the first game of the season both years and there has been too much room to make up while being unable to defeat some of the elite teams ahead of them including last season when they went 1-3 against top 25 teams. Now comes the real challenge of replacing Heisman Trophy winner quarterback Jayden Daniels but they might have the guy in Garrett Nussmeier who threw for 395 yards on 31-45 passing and three touchdowns in the ReliaQuest Bowl win. The issue is losing two top receivers who combined for 2,746 yards and their leading rusher was Daniels with 1,134 yards so there will be a call for playmakers to go with a top offensive line. LSU regressed defensively, finishing No. 103 overall and No. 79 in scoring and this unit needs to improve with a new coordinator in place. LSU faces USC on a neutral field and UCLA at home and within the conference, they avoid Georgia and Texas while catching their three biggest tests all at home.
Missouri Tigers 11-2 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5
Missouri had not had a winning season since 2018 although it finished exactly .500 during the regular season every season between 2019 and 2022 and while more of the same was expected last year, the Tigers were completely underrated and went off for an 11-2 campaign, their first double digit winning season since 2014. Eli Drinkwitz had a warm seat going into last season but that is long gone as he earned a contract extension through 2028 and his team is loaded once again to go along with a schedule that is ranked in the 60s and it is the easiest in the SEC so something special is possible. The offense brings back nine starters but the Tigers lose All American running back Cody Schrader who rushed for a school record 1,654 yards so that will be impossible to replace. Quarterback Brady Cook had a great season but was limited because of Schrader but now he will be asked to unleash it with the best receiving corps in the conference with his top five targets returning. The offensive line is not the best but extremely experienced. Missouri had their best defense since 2019 but lost five top five round picks yet should still be fine. Their first four games are at home, they will go 4-0 in the nonconference and they miss Georgia, Texas, Mississippi and LSU and face only one team off a bye.
Tennessee Volunteers 9-4 ~ 4-4 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 5
In 13 years from 2008-2020, Tennessee won nine games only twice as it went through five head coaches, albeit one of those was the final season for the legendary Phillip Fulmer, but the Volunteers seemed to have found their guy. Josh Heupel has put together a winning record in each of his first three seasons and the 27 total wins are the best in a three-game stretch since 2002-2004 so Rocky Top is buzzing with some long awaited excitement. This season will pose some challenges though as Tennessee comes in as the fourth least experienced team in the conference but a fairly easy schedule will at least bring them another winning record. The Volunteers took a big step back on offense and have to replace five starters but they are high on quarterback Nico Iamaleava who is an athletic duel threat that played great in the Citrus bowl last season. The defense has to replace six starters and the success of their season could rely on their back seven which is the third weakest in the conference, ahead of only Mississippi St. and Vanderbilt, in a conference with incredible quarterback talent. The only tough nonconference game is a neutral site contest against NC State and in the SEC, other than Alabama at home and Oklahoma and Georgia on the road, all other games are winnable.
Texas A&M Aggies 7-6 ~ 4-4 SEC ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 9
If you look up the biggest disappointment in the SEC over the last three years in the dictionary, the Aggies logo will be prominently displayed. They opened 2021 and 2022 No. 6 in the preseason AP poll only to lose early and often and finish outside the top 25 both seasons as they did again last season. Texas A&M has had some of the best recruiting classes in the country and even with the talent, it underachieved under fired head coach Jimbo Fisher but now they might have found the right fit with former Duke coach Mike Elko who brought out the best of not so talented rosters and he was the defensive coordinator here from 2018-2021. Nine starters are back on offense led by quarterback Connor Weigman who has made four starts each of the last two seasons, throwing 16 touchdowns and just two picks. He has an experienced trio of receivers and has one of the best running back groups in the conference. The defense also has nine starters back and should be much improved with Elko back in the mix as they will have a superior pass rush which will help out the secondary. Opening at home against Notre Dame and former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard will be interesting and in the SEC, they miss Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi while getting Texas, Missouri and LSU at home.
Auburn Tigers 6-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-6-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8
Auburn is coming off its third consecutive losing season, the first time it has had three straight losing seasons since 1975-1977. Granted, two of those losing seasons were due to bowl losses but they all count and the pressure will be on head coach Hugh Freeze but the 6-7 season in 2023 was better than the record indicates. Three of the losses were against Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama and all by one possession with the latter coming on a late miracle touchdown by the Tide although a 21-point loss at home to New Mexico St. as a 26-point favorite should never happen. They come into this season with the sixth most experienced team and have a schedule that is difficult in spots but doable. The Tigers bring back nine starters on offense led by quarterback Payton Thorne who was inconsistent but has three years of starting experience, the other two at Michigan St. The leading receiver last season had 394 yards but incoming freshman Cam Coleman will change that along with a pair of wideouts from the transfer portal. The defense improved by a touchdown from 2022 and should get even better. The Tigers will go 4-0 in the nonconference which offsets a tough SEC slate that includes Georgia, Alabama and Missouri, all on the road and Texas A&M and Oklahoma at home.
Oklahoma Sooners 10-3 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
Oklahoma is the second team coming over from the Big 12 following a 10-3 season that could have been so much better. The Sooners opened 7-0 which included a win over Texas and they moved up to No. 6 in the AP Poll but then came a pair of consecutive road losses at Kansas and Oklahoma St. by a combined eight points. After a 6-7 record in 2022, head coach Brent Venables looks to have Oklahoma back where it belongs but a shift to the SEC and having to play the toughest conference schedule will be a true test. New coordinators on offense and defense could be challenging early on as well. The offense brings back seven starters but it has to replace quarterback Dillon Gabriel who transferred to Oregon so that is a big hit but the replacement is a big time recruit in sophomore Jackson Arnold. Even though they lose their top receiver, the Sooners have the third best group in the SEC. Oklahoma improved its defense by close to a touchdown and should improve more with eight starters back and the third season under Venables. The good news is the Sooners can break in the new parts with a weak nonconference schedule against Temple, Houston and Tulane. The bad news is that they play six of the top seven teams in the SEC and they miss Vanderbilt and Mississippi St.
Kentucky Wildcats 7-6 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 10
Head coach Mark Stoops was hired in 2013 coming into an awful situation and while it took him a couple years to make it his program, Kentucky has had a winning record in seven of the last eight seasons, the 2020 COVID year being the only exception. He has had two double digit winning seasons which is more impressive considering the Wildcats had only two in the history of the program prior to this, the last coming in 1977. A 5-0 start last season went south quickly as the Wildcats lost five of their next six games as the schedule ramped up but they made it to their eighth straight bowl game. Kentucky is the third most experienced team in the SEC but in this conference, sometimes that does not matter. There are eight starters back on offense and like many teams in the SEC, the Wildcats have to replace their quarterback with Devin Leary off to the NFL but there is high anticipation for Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff. They lose Ray Davis out of the backfield but DeaMonte Trayanum from Ohio St. should fill the void. 10 starters are back on defense after bringing five back each of the past three seasons and they will be better than last season. All four nonconference games are at home so they have only four road games but three are tough. They do avoid Alabama, LSU and Missouri.
Arkansas Razorbacks 4-8 ~ 1-7 SEC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-3-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8
It was an absolute mess that former head coach Chad Morris left for current head coach Sam Pittman who was hired in 2020 and that weird season resulted in a 3-7 record but things turned around with a pair of winning season but then last year hit. The Razorbacks opened 2-0 against inferior teams but that was followed up by a six-game losing streak that included a stretch of four straight non-home games and they could not recover enroute to a 4-8 record. That six-game skid included five losses by one possession and three of those were against Alabama, Mississippi and LSU all away from home and on the season, they were only -1.3 ppg in scoring differential so it was not as bad as that record shows. The offense took a huge step back last season as they regressed by 144 ypg from 2022 despite KJ Jefferson at quarterback. He has departed and Boise St. transfer Taylen Green takes over. Arkansas has its top eight receivers back so the offense can get back to its 2022 numbers. The defense made up for it somewhat, improving by 108 ypg and have their most experienced unit returning since 2021. The Razorbacks have three winnable nonconference home games but travel to Oklahoma St. and while they miss Alabama and Georgia, they have to play seven of the other top nine in the SEC.
Florida Gators 5-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8
Florida opened last season 5-2 and cracked the AP Top 25 but the Gators went on to lose their final five games, four coming against ranked teams, to make it three straight losing seasons in Gainesville. The last time they had three straight losing seasons was 1945-1947 so this is a pretty big deal although the previous two seasons was due to a bowl loss prior to the rugged late schedule last year. Head coach Billy Napier is not on the hot seat as this has not been a complete debacle but he does need to turn this around sooner rather than later however we are not sure if this is the year. The offense took a small dip in yards but scoring has remained steady over the last three seasons and they should show some improvement with Graham Mertz now in his second season in this system after completing 73 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and three interceptions last year. They have the playmakers and overall have the No. 5 ranked preseason offense. The defense did nothing to help out the offense and it too has been flat over the last three seasons but has to improve and it should if key parts come together in the back seven. The Gators play the hardest schedule in the country with Miami, UCF and Florida St. in the nonconference and they play all the big boys in the SEC sans Alabama.
South Carolina Gamecocks 5-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
The Gamecocks had eight wins in 2022 which was their second straight winning season but they could not carry that over into last year as they had only 10 starters back. South Carolina opened the season 2-2 with wins over Furman of the FCS and a bad Mississippi St. team then came four straight losses but the Gamecocks battled back with three wins and could have become bowl eligible with a win over Clemson but lost 16-7 in the season finale. This team is close as it needs a few breaks and needs to avoid injuries that crushed both lines last season and it needs to find consistency on offense. South Carolina scored 20 or fewer points seven times while scoring 37 or more points five times with nothing in-between and now a quarterback needs to break away from the pack between transfers Robby Ashford and Davis Beville and redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers. The top three receivers are gone so it is a young group and they will rely on Arkansas transfer running back Raheim Sanders, who rushed for 1,443 yards in 2022. The transfer portal is going to play a big role in improving a defense that has not been good since 2017. Clemson is the only tough nonconference game and in the SEC, the Gamecocks avoid Georgia and Texas from the top and get Mississippi, LSU and Missouri at home.
Mississippi St. Bulldogs 5-7 ~ 1-7 SEC ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5
College football lost a legend when Mississippi St. head coach Mike Leach passed away suddenly in December of 2022 after an 8-4 regular season and the Bulldogs beat Illinois 19-10 in the ReliaQuest Bowl in his honor. They hired Zach Arnett, who coached the bowl game, to take over and it lasted a total of 10 games as he was fired after a 51-10 loss to Texas A&M. Now on their third coach in less than two years, it will be up to former Oklahoma St. and Mississippi offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby to find some stability in this program that Leach was forming and has had only one double digit winning season since the turn of the century. It will not be easy this season being the least experienced team in the conference as Mississippi St. brings back only five starters on each side of the ball. The offense regressed by close to 10 ppg but Lebby will serve as OC with a more high powered attack led by Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen. The leading rusher is gone, the top five receivers are gone and the entire offensive line is new. The defense will not be able to carry them as the Bulldogs lost nine of their top 12 tacklers and it is a big rebuild project. There are three possible nonconference home wins and within the conference, they miss Alabama and LSU but play six of the other top eight teams.
Vanderbilt Commodores 2-10 ~ 0-8 SEC ~ 2-10-0 ATS ~ 8-3-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
Vanderbilt will be the consensus pick to finish in last place for a sixth straight season as the Commodores have compiled a 3-38 conference record the previous five seasons with those three wins coming by a combined 17 points. Vanderbilt has not had a winning overall record since 2013 and a winning SEC record since 2012 and those have been the only two years they finished in the AP Top 25 since 1948. It has been a long road of misery for the administration and the entire fanbase and that is going to continue again this season but they should show improvement after getting outscored by close to two touchdowns per game last season. The offense gets an upgrade with New Mexico St. transfer Diego Pavia taking over at quarterback after two very productive years with the Aggies. Three starters are back on the offensive line along with two transfers with big starting experience but they need to find a running game that averaged only 95 ypg on 3.3 ypc and have to replace their top three receivers. The defense is what has devastated them as they have allowed over 35 ppg each of the last four years so there is a lot of room for improvement. They have two winnable nonconference games with a game at Georgia St. being a swing game and they play five of the top seven teams in the SEC.
BY Matt Fargo
https://topsportscappers.com/
Regular Season Win Totals and SEC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)
Georgia: 10.5 Over -125 Under +105/+190 SEC Winner
Texas: 10.5 Over +150 Under -180/+320 SEC Winner
Ole Miss: 9.5 Over -115 Under -105/+650 SEC Winner
Alabama: 9.5 Over +120 Under -140/+750 SEC Winner
LSU: 9 Over -120 Under +100/+1,000 SEC Winner
Missouri: 9.5 Over +135 Under -160/+1,800 SEC Winner
Tennessee: 8.5 Over -170 Under +145/+1,600 SEC Winner
Texas A&M: 8.5 Over -120 Under +100/+1,400 SEC Winner
Auburn: 7.5 Over +125 Under -145/+6,000 SEC Winner
Oklahoma: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100/+3,000 SEC Winner
Kentucky: 6.5 Over -115 Under -105/+10,000 SEC Winner
Arkansas: 4.5 Over -110 Under -110/+25,000 SEC Winner
Florida: 4.5 Over -155 Under +130/+12,000 SEC Winner
South Carolina: 5.5 Over -115 Under -105/+12,000 SEC Winner
Mississippi State: 4 Over -150 Under +130/+40,000 SEC Winner
Vanderbilt: 3 Over -125 Under +105/+100,000 SEC Winner
Coaching Changes
Alabama: Nick Saban Out ~ Kalen DeBoer In
Mississippi St.: Zach Arnett Out ~ Jeff Lebby In
Texas A&M: Jimbo Fisher Out ~ Mike Elko In
Georgia Bulldogs 13-1 ~ 8-0 SEC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7
Georgia was cruising along as it posted a perfect 12-0 regular season and was well on its way to try and win a third straight National Championship but was upset by Alabama 27-24 which knocked it out of the top four and put the Tide into the CFP. Georgia is the epitome of a team that reloads instead of rebuilds and that is the case again this season. They brought back 13 starters in 2021 and 10 starters in 2022 in their championship seasons while last season they had 13 starters back and were once again No. 1 throughout the season. The Bulldogs bring back 14 starters, their most since 2017, and they come in as the favorite once again. Quarterback Carson Beck will be a Heisman Trophy favorite and while they need to replace their top two rushers and three of their top four receivers, they will be just fine, especially having one of the best offensive lines in the country. The defense allowed its most points since 2000, but giving up 15.6 ppg is still pretty darn good and they will be better with seven starters back and they are loaded. They are stacked at all three levels and have the potential to match the 2021 unit. They open with Clemson, their only true nonconference test, while the SEC is no cakewalk with an early game at Alabama and later games at Texas and Mississippi.
Texas Longhorns 12-2 ~ 8-1 Big 12 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
Texas is in its inaugural season in the SEC and while it is a significant upgrade from the Big 12, the Longhorns are expected to give Georgia all it can handle to claim the SEC. Their only regular season loss was against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry on a last second touchdown but they still made it to the CFP where they had a chance to beat Washington but failed with three straight incompletions in the final seconds from the 12-yard line. It was the first double-digit winning season since 2018 and this team looks to be back at the top for the foreseeable future. Texas has seven starters back on offense highlighted by quarterback Quinn Ewers but like Georgia, a lot has to be replaced around the quarterback as Texas loses its top rusher and top five receivers but it has an offensive line that rivals that of the Bulldogs. While the defense will not have to carry the offense, it could if needed even with what is considered a weak defensive line after losing their two best players. The Longhorns make up for it with top four units in the SEC at linebacker and secondary. They face an improved Colorado St. team before heading to Michigan in Week 2. The SEC slate is one of the best as of the top seven teams not including them, they miss five and while the one is Georgia, it is at home.
Mississippi Rebels 11-2 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5
The Rebels have been on the cusp of something really special in each of the last three seasons but have not been able to get over the hump as Alabama has gotten in the way twice in 2021 and 2023 and LSU stopped their 7-0 start in 2022. Head coach Lane Kiffin is brash and cocky to a lot of people but he wins and he has turned this program around with double-digit winning seasons two of the last three years as prior to this, Mississippi produced only three 10-win seasons since 1963. This edition of the Rebels could and should be the best of them all as they come into 2024 as the most experienced team in the SEC and No. 13 in the country thanks to 20 returning starters. Quarterback Jaxson Dart would arguably be the top quarterback in every other Power 4 Conference but the SEC is loaded at that position so he might be flying under the radar with a loaded receiving corps and a top offensive line in front of him. Defense has always been an issue in Oxford but last season the Rebels allowed their fewest points since 2014 and after bringing in a haul through the transfer portal, they should be even better. The nonconference slate is a joke and of the 10 teams with win totals of 7.5 or more, they face only three of those and two are at home while they avoid both Texas and Alabama.
Alabama Crimson Tide 12-2 ~ 8-0 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 9-2-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 6
Alabama suffered an early season loss to Texas but did not slip up the remainder of the season, including a miracle win at Auburn, to make it to the CFP for the eighth time before getting upended by Michigan in overtime, showing how important it is to lose early if you are going to lose. That was the 16th consecutive season with double digit wins but those of course were all under head coach Nick Saban who called it a career as arguably the greatest college coach of all time and now Kalan DeBoer walks into the footsteps of a legend. He will not be intimidated as he has been in the national spotlight and while the pressure will be there to keep winning, he has the talent to do so. The offense revolves around quarterback Jalen Milroe but he loses 1,793 receiving yards from his top three receivers behind a fairly weak offensive line. Alabama has allowed 20 points or less in an incredible 16 straight seasons and that streak should continue despite losing a lot to the NFL. Their strength will be on the backend which is big in a conference loaded with quarterbacks. The schedule is one of the toughest in the country despite a fairly weak nonconference slate that includes a game at Wisconsin. They face six of the other top nine SEC teams while facing four teams coming off a bye week.
LSU Tigers 10-3 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 11-1-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6
Despite winning the National Championship in 2019, head coach Ed Orgeron was let go two years later despite one of those being the unpredictable COVID season but they seem to have made the right hire with Brian Kelly who has put together a 20-7 record in his first two seasons. The problem has been losing to Florida St. in the first game of the season both years and there has been too much room to make up while being unable to defeat some of the elite teams ahead of them including last season when they went 1-3 against top 25 teams. Now comes the real challenge of replacing Heisman Trophy winner quarterback Jayden Daniels but they might have the guy in Garrett Nussmeier who threw for 395 yards on 31-45 passing and three touchdowns in the ReliaQuest Bowl win. The issue is losing two top receivers who combined for 2,746 yards and their leading rusher was Daniels with 1,134 yards so there will be a call for playmakers to go with a top offensive line. LSU regressed defensively, finishing No. 103 overall and No. 79 in scoring and this unit needs to improve with a new coordinator in place. LSU faces USC on a neutral field and UCLA at home and within the conference, they avoid Georgia and Texas while catching their three biggest tests all at home.
Missouri Tigers 11-2 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5
Missouri had not had a winning season since 2018 although it finished exactly .500 during the regular season every season between 2019 and 2022 and while more of the same was expected last year, the Tigers were completely underrated and went off for an 11-2 campaign, their first double digit winning season since 2014. Eli Drinkwitz had a warm seat going into last season but that is long gone as he earned a contract extension through 2028 and his team is loaded once again to go along with a schedule that is ranked in the 60s and it is the easiest in the SEC so something special is possible. The offense brings back nine starters but the Tigers lose All American running back Cody Schrader who rushed for a school record 1,654 yards so that will be impossible to replace. Quarterback Brady Cook had a great season but was limited because of Schrader but now he will be asked to unleash it with the best receiving corps in the conference with his top five targets returning. The offensive line is not the best but extremely experienced. Missouri had their best defense since 2019 but lost five top five round picks yet should still be fine. Their first four games are at home, they will go 4-0 in the nonconference and they miss Georgia, Texas, Mississippi and LSU and face only one team off a bye.
Tennessee Volunteers 9-4 ~ 4-4 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 5
In 13 years from 2008-2020, Tennessee won nine games only twice as it went through five head coaches, albeit one of those was the final season for the legendary Phillip Fulmer, but the Volunteers seemed to have found their guy. Josh Heupel has put together a winning record in each of his first three seasons and the 27 total wins are the best in a three-game stretch since 2002-2004 so Rocky Top is buzzing with some long awaited excitement. This season will pose some challenges though as Tennessee comes in as the fourth least experienced team in the conference but a fairly easy schedule will at least bring them another winning record. The Volunteers took a big step back on offense and have to replace five starters but they are high on quarterback Nico Iamaleava who is an athletic duel threat that played great in the Citrus bowl last season. The defense has to replace six starters and the success of their season could rely on their back seven which is the third weakest in the conference, ahead of only Mississippi St. and Vanderbilt, in a conference with incredible quarterback talent. The only tough nonconference game is a neutral site contest against NC State and in the SEC, other than Alabama at home and Oklahoma and Georgia on the road, all other games are winnable.
Texas A&M Aggies 7-6 ~ 4-4 SEC ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 9
If you look up the biggest disappointment in the SEC over the last three years in the dictionary, the Aggies logo will be prominently displayed. They opened 2021 and 2022 No. 6 in the preseason AP poll only to lose early and often and finish outside the top 25 both seasons as they did again last season. Texas A&M has had some of the best recruiting classes in the country and even with the talent, it underachieved under fired head coach Jimbo Fisher but now they might have found the right fit with former Duke coach Mike Elko who brought out the best of not so talented rosters and he was the defensive coordinator here from 2018-2021. Nine starters are back on offense led by quarterback Connor Weigman who has made four starts each of the last two seasons, throwing 16 touchdowns and just two picks. He has an experienced trio of receivers and has one of the best running back groups in the conference. The defense also has nine starters back and should be much improved with Elko back in the mix as they will have a superior pass rush which will help out the secondary. Opening at home against Notre Dame and former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard will be interesting and in the SEC, they miss Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi while getting Texas, Missouri and LSU at home.
Auburn Tigers 6-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-6-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8
Auburn is coming off its third consecutive losing season, the first time it has had three straight losing seasons since 1975-1977. Granted, two of those losing seasons were due to bowl losses but they all count and the pressure will be on head coach Hugh Freeze but the 6-7 season in 2023 was better than the record indicates. Three of the losses were against Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama and all by one possession with the latter coming on a late miracle touchdown by the Tide although a 21-point loss at home to New Mexico St. as a 26-point favorite should never happen. They come into this season with the sixth most experienced team and have a schedule that is difficult in spots but doable. The Tigers bring back nine starters on offense led by quarterback Payton Thorne who was inconsistent but has three years of starting experience, the other two at Michigan St. The leading receiver last season had 394 yards but incoming freshman Cam Coleman will change that along with a pair of wideouts from the transfer portal. The defense improved by a touchdown from 2022 and should get even better. The Tigers will go 4-0 in the nonconference which offsets a tough SEC slate that includes Georgia, Alabama and Missouri, all on the road and Texas A&M and Oklahoma at home.
Oklahoma Sooners 10-3 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
Oklahoma is the second team coming over from the Big 12 following a 10-3 season that could have been so much better. The Sooners opened 7-0 which included a win over Texas and they moved up to No. 6 in the AP Poll but then came a pair of consecutive road losses at Kansas and Oklahoma St. by a combined eight points. After a 6-7 record in 2022, head coach Brent Venables looks to have Oklahoma back where it belongs but a shift to the SEC and having to play the toughest conference schedule will be a true test. New coordinators on offense and defense could be challenging early on as well. The offense brings back seven starters but it has to replace quarterback Dillon Gabriel who transferred to Oregon so that is a big hit but the replacement is a big time recruit in sophomore Jackson Arnold. Even though they lose their top receiver, the Sooners have the third best group in the SEC. Oklahoma improved its defense by close to a touchdown and should improve more with eight starters back and the third season under Venables. The good news is the Sooners can break in the new parts with a weak nonconference schedule against Temple, Houston and Tulane. The bad news is that they play six of the top seven teams in the SEC and they miss Vanderbilt and Mississippi St.
Kentucky Wildcats 7-6 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 10
Head coach Mark Stoops was hired in 2013 coming into an awful situation and while it took him a couple years to make it his program, Kentucky has had a winning record in seven of the last eight seasons, the 2020 COVID year being the only exception. He has had two double digit winning seasons which is more impressive considering the Wildcats had only two in the history of the program prior to this, the last coming in 1977. A 5-0 start last season went south quickly as the Wildcats lost five of their next six games as the schedule ramped up but they made it to their eighth straight bowl game. Kentucky is the third most experienced team in the SEC but in this conference, sometimes that does not matter. There are eight starters back on offense and like many teams in the SEC, the Wildcats have to replace their quarterback with Devin Leary off to the NFL but there is high anticipation for Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff. They lose Ray Davis out of the backfield but DeaMonte Trayanum from Ohio St. should fill the void. 10 starters are back on defense after bringing five back each of the past three seasons and they will be better than last season. All four nonconference games are at home so they have only four road games but three are tough. They do avoid Alabama, LSU and Missouri.
Arkansas Razorbacks 4-8 ~ 1-7 SEC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-3-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8
It was an absolute mess that former head coach Chad Morris left for current head coach Sam Pittman who was hired in 2020 and that weird season resulted in a 3-7 record but things turned around with a pair of winning season but then last year hit. The Razorbacks opened 2-0 against inferior teams but that was followed up by a six-game losing streak that included a stretch of four straight non-home games and they could not recover enroute to a 4-8 record. That six-game skid included five losses by one possession and three of those were against Alabama, Mississippi and LSU all away from home and on the season, they were only -1.3 ppg in scoring differential so it was not as bad as that record shows. The offense took a huge step back last season as they regressed by 144 ypg from 2022 despite KJ Jefferson at quarterback. He has departed and Boise St. transfer Taylen Green takes over. Arkansas has its top eight receivers back so the offense can get back to its 2022 numbers. The defense made up for it somewhat, improving by 108 ypg and have their most experienced unit returning since 2021. The Razorbacks have three winnable nonconference home games but travel to Oklahoma St. and while they miss Alabama and Georgia, they have to play seven of the other top nine in the SEC.
Florida Gators 5-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8
Florida opened last season 5-2 and cracked the AP Top 25 but the Gators went on to lose their final five games, four coming against ranked teams, to make it three straight losing seasons in Gainesville. The last time they had three straight losing seasons was 1945-1947 so this is a pretty big deal although the previous two seasons was due to a bowl loss prior to the rugged late schedule last year. Head coach Billy Napier is not on the hot seat as this has not been a complete debacle but he does need to turn this around sooner rather than later however we are not sure if this is the year. The offense took a small dip in yards but scoring has remained steady over the last three seasons and they should show some improvement with Graham Mertz now in his second season in this system after completing 73 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and three interceptions last year. They have the playmakers and overall have the No. 5 ranked preseason offense. The defense did nothing to help out the offense and it too has been flat over the last three seasons but has to improve and it should if key parts come together in the back seven. The Gators play the hardest schedule in the country with Miami, UCF and Florida St. in the nonconference and they play all the big boys in the SEC sans Alabama.
South Carolina Gamecocks 5-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
The Gamecocks had eight wins in 2022 which was their second straight winning season but they could not carry that over into last year as they had only 10 starters back. South Carolina opened the season 2-2 with wins over Furman of the FCS and a bad Mississippi St. team then came four straight losses but the Gamecocks battled back with three wins and could have become bowl eligible with a win over Clemson but lost 16-7 in the season finale. This team is close as it needs a few breaks and needs to avoid injuries that crushed both lines last season and it needs to find consistency on offense. South Carolina scored 20 or fewer points seven times while scoring 37 or more points five times with nothing in-between and now a quarterback needs to break away from the pack between transfers Robby Ashford and Davis Beville and redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers. The top three receivers are gone so it is a young group and they will rely on Arkansas transfer running back Raheim Sanders, who rushed for 1,443 yards in 2022. The transfer portal is going to play a big role in improving a defense that has not been good since 2017. Clemson is the only tough nonconference game and in the SEC, the Gamecocks avoid Georgia and Texas from the top and get Mississippi, LSU and Missouri at home.
Mississippi St. Bulldogs 5-7 ~ 1-7 SEC ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5
College football lost a legend when Mississippi St. head coach Mike Leach passed away suddenly in December of 2022 after an 8-4 regular season and the Bulldogs beat Illinois 19-10 in the ReliaQuest Bowl in his honor. They hired Zach Arnett, who coached the bowl game, to take over and it lasted a total of 10 games as he was fired after a 51-10 loss to Texas A&M. Now on their third coach in less than two years, it will be up to former Oklahoma St. and Mississippi offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby to find some stability in this program that Leach was forming and has had only one double digit winning season since the turn of the century. It will not be easy this season being the least experienced team in the conference as Mississippi St. brings back only five starters on each side of the ball. The offense regressed by close to 10 ppg but Lebby will serve as OC with a more high powered attack led by Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen. The leading rusher is gone, the top five receivers are gone and the entire offensive line is new. The defense will not be able to carry them as the Bulldogs lost nine of their top 12 tacklers and it is a big rebuild project. There are three possible nonconference home wins and within the conference, they miss Alabama and LSU but play six of the other top eight teams.
Vanderbilt Commodores 2-10 ~ 0-8 SEC ~ 2-10-0 ATS ~ 8-3-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
Vanderbilt will be the consensus pick to finish in last place for a sixth straight season as the Commodores have compiled a 3-38 conference record the previous five seasons with those three wins coming by a combined 17 points. Vanderbilt has not had a winning overall record since 2013 and a winning SEC record since 2012 and those have been the only two years they finished in the AP Top 25 since 1948. It has been a long road of misery for the administration and the entire fanbase and that is going to continue again this season but they should show improvement after getting outscored by close to two touchdowns per game last season. The offense gets an upgrade with New Mexico St. transfer Diego Pavia taking over at quarterback after two very productive years with the Aggies. Three starters are back on the offensive line along with two transfers with big starting experience but they need to find a running game that averaged only 95 ypg on 3.3 ypc and have to replace their top three receivers. The defense is what has devastated them as they have allowed over 35 ppg each of the last four years so there is a lot of room for improvement. They have two winnable nonconference games with a game at Georgia St. being a swing game and they play five of the top seven teams in the SEC.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics MLB Pick 8-24-24
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Matt Fargo Sports Oakland Athletics +117
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MLB 08/24 4:07 PM Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics 117
s is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our Saturday Free Play. The Brewers easily took the first game of this series as they jumped ahead 5-1 in the second inning and never looked back in the 11-3 win. The victory snapped a two-game losing streak and they moved to 36-30 on the road after dropping two of three in St. Louis. The National League Central is all but locked up and the Brewers last 37 games will be trying to catch the National League West three teams for best record in baseball but we do not like their matchup tonight. We have been high on Oakland over the second half of the season as it has been under the radar but its 55 wins are already five more than all of last season with 33 games still remaining. The Athletics have lost three of four but are 7-5 over their last 12 games and they are again in an undervalued spot being a non-public play. Since July 1, the Athletics are 25-17 which is tied with the Royals for the fourth best record in baseball, sitting behind only Arizona, San Diego and Houston. Overall, they have been much better at home than on the road as they are just two games under .500 in Oakland. Colin Rea is a prime candidate for negative regression. He has put up some really good starts this season which has led to a 3.52 ERA but he also throws in the random clunker as we saw two games back when he allowed seven runs against the Dodgers which came in-between two starts where he allowed no runs over seven innings. He is pitching to a 4.80 xERA and he ranks in the 28th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. The Oakland offense has been inconsistent of late but since July 1, they are No. 7 in wOBA at .328 while tied for No. 7 in ISO at .176. Joe Boyle was a late callup last season and he put up a 1.69 ERA in three starts and he ended up making the opening day roster. He did make four solid starts but he has three blowups and was eventually demoted to work on his stuff. He was recalled earlier this month and has made one start and while it was not a good one, it was on the road against the Mets and he followed that up by shutting out the Rays over six innings last time out. Play (970) Oakland Athletics
CFB closed 10-3 last season and 2024 kicks off today! MLB 14-8 +$8,250 L22. MLB 3-0 Triple Play Saturday! NFL +$72,010 in profits L12 years with no reason to slow down with the regular almost here! CFL on a 9-4 Run!
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Top Handicappers Profit
Matt Fargo Sports $1160.00
Mikhail Kivowitz $568.00
https://topsportscappers.com
Matt Fargo Sports Oakland Athletics +117
Discount 50% off All Handicappers This Promotion will run for the next 2 weeks and then it will be gone. So jump on the discounts while you can and all Picks/Packages are guaranteed to show a profit.
Matt Fargo Sports
MLB 08/24 4:07 PM Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics 117
s is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our Saturday Free Play. The Brewers easily took the first game of this series as they jumped ahead 5-1 in the second inning and never looked back in the 11-3 win. The victory snapped a two-game losing streak and they moved to 36-30 on the road after dropping two of three in St. Louis. The National League Central is all but locked up and the Brewers last 37 games will be trying to catch the National League West three teams for best record in baseball but we do not like their matchup tonight. We have been high on Oakland over the second half of the season as it has been under the radar but its 55 wins are already five more than all of last season with 33 games still remaining. The Athletics have lost three of four but are 7-5 over their last 12 games and they are again in an undervalued spot being a non-public play. Since July 1, the Athletics are 25-17 which is tied with the Royals for the fourth best record in baseball, sitting behind only Arizona, San Diego and Houston. Overall, they have been much better at home than on the road as they are just two games under .500 in Oakland. Colin Rea is a prime candidate for negative regression. He has put up some really good starts this season which has led to a 3.52 ERA but he also throws in the random clunker as we saw two games back when he allowed seven runs against the Dodgers which came in-between two starts where he allowed no runs over seven innings. He is pitching to a 4.80 xERA and he ranks in the 28th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. The Oakland offense has been inconsistent of late but since July 1, they are No. 7 in wOBA at .328 while tied for No. 7 in ISO at .176. Joe Boyle was a late callup last season and he put up a 1.69 ERA in three starts and he ended up making the opening day roster. He did make four solid starts but he has three blowups and was eventually demoted to work on his stuff. He was recalled earlier this month and has made one start and while it was not a good one, it was on the road against the Mets and he followed that up by shutting out the Rays over six innings last time out. Play (970) Oakland Athletics
CFB closed 10-3 last season and 2024 kicks off today! MLB 14-8 +$8,250 L22. MLB 3-0 Triple Play Saturday! NFL +$72,010 in profits L12 years with no reason to slow down with the regular almost here! CFL on a 9-4 Run!
YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
Top Handicappers Profit
Matt Fargo Sports $1160.00
Mikhail Kivowitz $568.00
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