Topic: Total Marketcap All Coins Logarithmic Regression (Read 7354 times)
Anyone done an updated regression lately? Awe hasn't posted since December, nothing on crypto since his last update.
Chart was updated by Awe and Wonder:
https://twitter.com/Awe_andWonder/status/1071995130092113920
Made new video about it, enjoy
"Serious Undervaluation is Here"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9JsmelO12s&t
https://twitter.com/Awe_andWonder/status/1071995130092113920
Made new video about it, enjoy
"Serious Undervaluation is Here"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9JsmelO12s&t
From Trolololo's formula I've calculated today's % Spread based on today's actual Market Cap. of $115.7 B.
The Spread comes to -52.8 %.
See https://youtu.be/MvQzjyhtjRg for explanation.
The Spread comes to -52.8 %.
See https://youtu.be/MvQzjyhtjRg for explanation.
Indeed currently 252B is trendline/fair value of all crypto's, so 115B would be -54%, today 135B is -49%, undervaluation to fair value.
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.23720++*+ln((number+of+weeks+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fweeks)+-+8.81809)
Great job Marc, hope you update chart. follow you.
From Trolololo's formula I've calculated today's % Spread based on today's actual Market Cap. of $115.7 B.
The Spread comes to -52.8 %.
See https://youtu.be/MvQzjyhtjRg for explanation.
The Spread comes to -52.8 %.
See https://youtu.be/MvQzjyhtjRg for explanation.
Indeed currently 252B is trendline/fair value of all crypto's, so 115B would be -54%, today 135B is -49%, undervaluation to fair value.
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.23720++*+ln((number+of+weeks+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fweeks)+-+8.81809)
From Trolololo's formula I've calculated today's % Spread based on today's actual Market Cap. of $115.7 B.
The Spread comes to -52.8 %.
See https://youtu.be/MvQzjyhtjRg for explanation.
The Spread comes to -52.8 %.
See https://youtu.be/MvQzjyhtjRg for explanation.
Awe and Wonder on twitter does a great job too with the log regression chart and other interesting stuff:
https://twitter.com/Awe_andWonder
Don't think he is doing log regression on total market cap thou
In my words he reckons the neutral btc price should be about $4800. Since we are already below this price at present bitcoin could now be considered to have become undervalued. For me that means now is more or less time to consider buying.
Where is Trolololo when you need him lol!
yup
Awe and Wonder on twitter does a great job too with the log regression chart and other interesting stuff:
https://twitter.com/Awe_andWonder
Don't think he is doing log regression on total market cap thou
Where is Trolololo when you need him lol!
Is this possible that somebody or Trololo will update this chart frequently?
Donate Trololo for this amazing work. If you find it valuable donate even more.
Donate Trololo for this amazing work. If you find it valuable donate even more.
His Bitcoin one is also very good and deserves donations for an update: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9293342
If we can't really calculate the future this is jut an algorithm that shows us what the marketcap should be looking like according to this also however nothing further? If so than why not just take a look at the marketcap itself instead of this also? If it has a possibility of showing the marketcap for a future time than how it could be done? It just shows today's and that's something we can find ourselves.
Nevermind, current trendline at 200B according to your last link to calculator:
Calculate today's trendline value HERE
Calculate today's trendline value HERE
Mark how do you know the input in the wolfram alpha. could you please explain.
I discover your channel and Tommyworldpower on youtube. You guys have done a great work.
I'm assuming you are Trolololo, lol
Nevermind, current trendline at 200B according to your last link to calculator:
Calculate today's trendline value HERE
Calculate today's trendline value HERE
Here is the updated chart:
Calculate today's trendline value HERE
Please, consider donating to bitcoin:19sEscR9bfH2ttXb5WbcabYbRGjq2znwPi
PS: Special thanks to Marc De Mesel, again
Calculate today's trendline value HERE
Please, consider donating to bitcoin:19sEscR9bfH2ttXb5WbcabYbRGjq2znwPi
PS: Special thanks to Marc De Mesel, again
Observing the spread chart, we are heavily overvalued, more than 5x times the estimated value.
Only 2 times we were higher: June 2011 and nov 2013...
Legendary words now already from our one and only Trololo
Send u message Trololo, would love to see new chart but especially have your confirmation that calculator is correct?
Current trendline is at 150 billion?
Calculate today's trendline value HERE
Here is the updated chart:
Calculate today's trendline value HERE
Please, consider donating to bitcoin:19sEscR9bfH2ttXb5WbcabYbRGjq2znwPi
PS: Special thanks to Marc De Mesel, again
Calculate today's trendline value HERE
Please, consider donating to bitcoin:19sEscR9bfH2ttXb5WbcabYbRGjq2znwPi
PS: Special thanks to Marc De Mesel, again
Calculator Trendline used to point to $180 Billion 1 month back, but now dropped to $150 Billion, which is right previous calculation or current one (that sems updated trololo?)
Hi guys, talked about Trololo chart in my latest video, "Thou Shalt Not Buy Overvaluation In Downtrend!"
Enjoy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08Z1oBjF4ig
Summary:
Current fair historical valuation of all cryptos according to Trololo chart is $180 billion so current $260 billion is still 44% overvalued (not 70% as mentioned in video). If it is trending upwards you can still make a good buck buying overvaluation but trend is now clearly downwards for half a year. Considering past bull market (2015-2017) lasted 50% longer than previous bull market (2012-2013) (3 years instead of 2), this bear market will likely also last 50% longer than last bear market of 2014-2015 so this time 1.5 year instead of 1, for the biggest coins, 3 years instead of 2 years for smallest, which is still a very long time from here, until end 2020! Also a word on real world adoption of Byteball and Bitcoin Cash.
Recently very active on Instagram, pics and vids of my dating life Check it out: https://www.instagram.com/marcdemesel/
Please share with your friends on your fb or snapchat, or retweet:
https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1010160840518066176
Enjoy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08Z1oBjF4ig
Summary:
Current fair historical valuation of all cryptos according to Trololo chart is $180 billion so current $260 billion is still 44% overvalued (not 70% as mentioned in video). If it is trending upwards you can still make a good buck buying overvaluation but trend is now clearly downwards for half a year. Considering past bull market (2015-2017) lasted 50% longer than previous bull market (2012-2013) (3 years instead of 2), this bear market will likely also last 50% longer than last bear market of 2014-2015 so this time 1.5 year instead of 1, for the biggest coins, 3 years instead of 2 years for smallest, which is still a very long time from here, until end 2020! Also a word on real world adoption of Byteball and Bitcoin Cash.
Recently very active on Instagram, pics and vids of my dating life
Check it out: https://www.instagram.com/marcdemesel/Please share with your friends on your fb or snapchat, or retweet:
https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1010160840518066176
Thanks Marc!
@Trololo could you please start accepting NANO so that we can donate to help you update the chart on a periodic basis?
Thanks.
Hi guys, talked about Trololo chart in my latest video, "Thou Shalt Not Buy Overvaluation In Downtrend!"
Enjoy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08Z1oBjF4ig
Summary:
Current fair historical valuation of all cryptos according to Trololo chart is $180 billion so current $260 billion is still 44% overvalued (not 70% as mentioned in video). If it is trending upwards you can still make a good buck buying overvaluation but trend is now clearly downwards for half a year. Considering past bull market (2015-2017) lasted 50% longer than previous bull market (2012-2013) (3 years instead of 2), this bear market will likely also last 50% longer than last bear market of 2014-2015 so this time 1.5 year instead of 1, for the biggest coins, 3 years instead of 2 years for smallest, which is still a very long time from here, until end 2020! Also a word on real world adoption of Byteball and Bitcoin Cash.
Recently very active on Instagram, pics and vids of my dating life Check it out: https://www.instagram.com/marcdemesel/
Please share with your friends on your fb or snapchat, or retweet:
https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1010160840518066176
Enjoy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08Z1oBjF4ig
Summary:
Current fair historical valuation of all cryptos according to Trololo chart is $180 billion so current $260 billion is still 44% overvalued (not 70% as mentioned in video). If it is trending upwards you can still make a good buck buying overvaluation but trend is now clearly downwards for half a year. Considering past bull market (2015-2017) lasted 50% longer than previous bull market (2012-2013) (3 years instead of 2), this bear market will likely also last 50% longer than last bear market of 2014-2015 so this time 1.5 year instead of 1, for the biggest coins, 3 years instead of 2 years for smallest, which is still a very long time from here, until end 2020! Also a word on real world adoption of Byteball and Bitcoin Cash.
Recently very active on Instagram, pics and vids of my dating life
Check it out: https://www.instagram.com/marcdemesel/Please share with your friends on your fb or snapchat, or retweet:
https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1010160840518066176
Has anyone access to an Excel or Google Sheet / calculator where I can plug in and do a Metcalfe analysis of price vs active users (providing my own active users values)?
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.05663v1.pdf - similar to what they've done in this paper?
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.05663v1.pdf - similar to what they've done in this paper?
@vapourminer
Thank you very much for your donation!
Thank you very much for your donation!
@trolololo, you're a legend! What a fantastic graph! My suspicions about the whole cryptcurrency movement slowing down have been confirmed!!!
Here is the updated chart:
https://s10.postimg.org/kzlt8lhk9/log_all_coins_marketcap_18-02-2018.jpg
Calculate today's trendline value HERE
Please, donate to:
BTC: 3F6Cs4x5mnp1xnURih8TiHN52DFzfGShNh
LTC: MU6ZfwepfD73SAYwSQVwGx39zmmTXhef3i
DASH: XczitEhpmqPMX4fbTAEvV6SuSo1rBU532s
ZEC: t1TCLym7Jti5Qo2Wn9oMopNVGBMs2kxqkcs
PS: Special thanks to Marc De Mesel, once again
https://s10.postimg.org/kzlt8lhk9/log_all_coins_marketcap_18-02-2018.jpg
Calculate today's trendline value HERE
Please, donate to:
BTC: 3F6Cs4x5mnp1xnURih8TiHN52DFzfGShNh
LTC: MU6ZfwepfD73SAYwSQVwGx39zmmTXhef3i
DASH: XczitEhpmqPMX4fbTAEvV6SuSo1rBU532s
ZEC: t1TCLym7Jti5Qo2Wn9oMopNVGBMs2kxqkcs
PS: Special thanks to Marc De Mesel, once again
sent ya a tip, tx id is in a pm.
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