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Topic: Total number of bitcoins will DECREASE - page 5. (Read 6542 times)

legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1008
Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political
A quick google search turned this up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landauer's_principle

Quote
Landauer's principle asserts that there is a minimum possible amount of energy required to change one bit of information, known as the Landauer limit:

    kT ln 2,

where k is the Boltzmann constant (approximately 1.38×10−23 J/K), T is the temperature of the circuit in kelvins, and ln 2 is the natural logarithm of 2 (approximately 0.69315).

Way off the original topic of the thread, but fascinating stuff.
What is unclear to me about Boltzmann's prinicple, (from
which Landauer's principle is derived) is how there are only a certain number of micro states,
because couldn't temperature be anything?
Or is it a discrete measurement?

In otherwords, is temperature a discrete thermondynamic
value?

Maybe our phd in physics friend can explain further.
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1081
I may write code in exchange for bitcoins.
Uh, 256 bit will be secure while you live.. Maybe. But we're all betting that it is secure for a very long time. Maybe not billions or millions of years, but if it actually survives a few hundred years, that's good enough for now.

Practially, I agree with this statement ^^^.  Nonetheless, the discussion of how quantum computers relate to breaking sha 256 is pretty interesting. 

The image above with the solar system sized "perfect-computer" is cute, but it lacks detail.  What's the valuation of "least engery possible to record a change of state"?

Sorry I'm so dumb.
legendary
Activity: 3416
Merit: 1912
The Concierge of Crypto
Uh, 256 bit will be secure while you live.. Maybe. But we're all betting that it is secure for a very long time. Maybe not billions or millions of years, but if it actually survives a few hundred years, that's good enough for now.
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
AES isn't used by Bitcoin.  Hashing functions are effectively immune to the potential of quantum computing.  Shor's algorithm can not be used against hashing functions or symetric cryptography. 

To say quantum computing is "advancing rapidly" is an overstatement.  In 2001 the largest number to be factored by a general purpose quantum computer using Shor's algorithm was 15.  By 2011 the largest number to be factored was 143.   That is from 4 bits to 8 bits in the span of a decade.   We are a long way from factoring even 256 bit numbers and 256 bit ECDSA keys are even harder (~3,072 RSA key = integer factorization). 

Nobody said 256 bit encryption will be secure forever.  It is infeasible to brute force a 256 bit key using classical computing.   Quantum computing may someday break it but it may not, quantum decoherence is a bitch.  It is possible ECDSA has some flaw and cryptanalysis will someday weakened it to a point it is economical to attack it.  That could be next year or not in the next century. 
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
★777Coin.com★ Fun BTC Casino!
Ok, regarding this nonsense about 256bit encryption being secure forever - that's absolute friggin lunacy!

I have a background in cryptography and a PhD in physics.  256bit encryption is secure in THIS UNIVERSE, but not in ALL UNIVERSES.  According to the most common interpretation of quantum mechanics (the multiverse interpretation), the number of parallel universes is (almost) infinite.

Quantum computing technology is advancing rapidly; a primitive quantum computer already factorized the number 15.

Google and the NSA are pouring money into quantum computer. These guys don't pump billions of dollars into a project unless they think it has some chance of success.

When quantum computing becomes a reality, then 256 encryption is going to bite the dust. Done. Gone. Fuhgettaboutit.

The NSA knows this and that is why they are storing all encrypted communications intercepted from high value targets.  They can't crack PGP now, but in 5 years? 10 years?  It's inevitable.

There are some encryption schemes that would defeat quantum computing, but AES256 ain't one of 'em!
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
★777Coin.com★ Fun BTC Casino!
The total number of BTC will decrease after all have been mined, and that's a certain fact.

I'm not saying it's a bad thing or that it will cause any problems within the Bitcoin ecosystem.  I'm just saying that based on simple classical economics (supply and demand), the price will be going UP, UP, UP.  As demand increases and supply contracts, price has nowhere to go but up.

If anything, I think the Winklevosses are too conservative in their estimates!
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
Carpe Diem
Yes it would decrease but I'm hopeful he morons who lose their bitcoins will never be able to get more to lose again. Or they won't be so dumb a second time to lose them like their first time. I suppose there are way to change the protocol as well if enough miners agree.
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1008
Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political
Haven't seen this yet?

legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1081
I may write code in exchange for bitcoins.
- snip -
In enough years, supply could become so limited as to cripple the usage of btc.
- snip -

Keeping in mind that bitcoins can currently be divided into 100,000,000 spendable units (commonly called "Satoshis"), how many bitcoins will we have to lose to cripple the usage?

Yes, I understand.  In principle there's not bottom to the number of times we can divide a unit into subunits.  I think you're right that this is better than adding more coins to the system.  However, my knowledge is limited.

Also,  I suppose this problem is so far off that we needn't worry about it too much now, though.

Considering that newly minted units will continue to be created until approximately the year 2140, I'd agree.

I can also image a kind of solution where some percentage of bitcoins is assumed to be lost each year and mining starts creating new coins again.  The idea would not be to make the currency an inflationary one, just to stabilize it a bit if it ever overall lossage ever actually became a problem.

No.

This will almost certainly never happen, and since we can just keep sub-dividing the units that we have, there really isn't any reason to either.

You know, another thing that might happen is that computing power goes through the roof and in 10 years all new bitcoins and all old bitcoins that anyone actually cares about need to be regenerated with a larger keypair.  Then, you might have a bitcoin "salvage" business where all of those old coins with only 256 size keys can be 'dug up' by someone interested in finding them.

Unless some mathematician finds weaknesses in the algorithms, computers will never be fast enough (and there will never be eough power available in the solar system) to brute force a 256 bit key.


You haven't supported your last point as well as your earlier ones.  How can you show that "there will never be enough power in the solar system" to brute force a 256 bit key?  Again, I'm not an expert but I think that quantum computers may be relevant to the discussion.  However, I'm just waiting to hear your argument on this last point.  I think it's interesting, but even more so if you can prove it.
newbie
Activity: 49
Merit: 0
Of course it will happen where people will lose some coins, but damn if you care enough about them you should be smart enough to back it up.
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1079
Gerald Davis
You will can see the ""lost"" bitcoins on blockchain.

Most "lost" Bitcoins can not be observed from the blockchain.  For most outputs we only know if the output is spent or unspent we don't know the reason why it is unspent.

Are these Bitcoins lost?
https://blockchain.info/tx/0e3e2357e806b6cdb1f70b54c3a3a17b6714ee1f0e68bebb44a74b1efd512098

There are some outputs which are definitively be lost and some that you can say with a very high confident that they are lost but for most coins we only know they haven't been spent for a long time.

legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 4801
- snip -
the total of bitcoins will be 21M
- snip -

To be specific, there will never be 21M bitcoins.  The actual total number of bitcoins that will be created will be a bit less than 21M.  Furthermore, early on, there was a bug that caused a miner to accidentally permanently remove some bitcoins from the system.  Therefore, the sum of unspent outputs in the blockchain will always be less than the total bitcoin mined.
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
the number of bitcoin available will decrease, but the total of bitcoins will be 21M. You will can see the ""lost"" bitcoins on blockchain. And this will happen after 2100, so its a bit soon to think about that.

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1029
Few days ago, I lost access to my address cause I lost my private key with 0.02 BTC in it and maybe I would be one of those small fraction i.e. 0.05% according to you.

No matter what the technology does and no matter how much the technology advances, the old and traditional methods will always remain the best.
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1008
Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political
One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year.

While I do agree that the total number of spendable Bitcoins would decrease, I disagree that it would be in a linear fashion. Those who made the mistake in the past are unlikely to do so again and the experienced veterans are unlikely to lose their keys so to me it seems more like an exponential decay curve as the rate of change of total spendable coins. Nonetheless, as long as other market factors are unaffected price should logically rise as supply decreases.

Right... Plus with the rise of multisig, and other schemes like Shamir, the incidents of "taking your bitcoins to the grave" should decrease as well.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 502
Circa 2010
One thing that most people don't seem to understand is that after 21 million Bitcoins have been produced, the TOTAL number of Bitcoins in circulation will decrease in a LINEAR fashion each year. 

While I do agree that the total number of spendable Bitcoins would decrease, I disagree that it would be in a linear fashion. Those who made the mistake in the past are unlikely to do so again and the experienced veterans are unlikely to lose their keys so to me it seems more like an exponential decay curve as the rate of change of total spendable coins. Nonetheless, as long as other market factors are unaffected price should logically rise as supply decreases.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
It might happen but still it is hard to tell what would be the speed of this process. We might not even notice it.
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1008
Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political
When SHA 256 is broken, all those "lost coins" won't be lost anymore. So much for deflation!!! I kid, I kid. Well, sort of. Actually sort of a worry that's always in the back of my mind, though.

You are mistaken.

Your bitcoins are not protected only by SHA-256.

There are three layers of cryptography between your private key and your bitcoin address.

  • ECDSA (with the secp256k1 curve)
  • SHA-256
  • RIPEMD-160

You could break any 2 of them, and as long as you don't re-use addresses, it wouldn't be possible to recover your "lost coins".

I suspect it will be a VERY long time (if ever) before all three algorithms are broken enough to recover "lost coins".

Out of the three SHA-256 is the least likely to break Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
If it ever did become a problem there are solutions that could be proposed and voted on. Maybe a POS option in the future could ensure a stable supply. The currency can evolve with society.
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 4801
When SHA 256 is broken, all those "lost coins" won't be lost anymore. So much for deflation!!! I kid, I kid. Well, sort of. Actually sort of a worry that's always in the back of my mind, though.

You are mistaken.

Your bitcoins are not protected only by SHA-256.

There are three layers of cryptography between your private key and your bitcoin address.

  • ECDSA (with the secp256k1 curve)
  • SHA-256
  • RIPEMD-160

You could break any 2 of them, and as long as you don't re-use addresses, it wouldn't be possible to recover your "lost coins".

I suspect it will be a VERY long time (if ever) before all three algorithms are broken enough to recover "lost coins".
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