trading purely based on luck. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Patrol69

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Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on October 06, 2023, 05:51:15 PM

Subjecting trading to being based on purely luck is the wrong motive, as it could even cause a trader to experience more losses than usual. For one to trade efficiently, they need to learn and understand the basic principles of trading, because that's what can help them have more successful trades than failed trades. Some experienced traders know when it's more suitable to enter the market and also when it's more risky to enter a trade, and what helps them to know all that is because of the trading tools that they use to analyze the market before they start to trade, but for a newbie who doesn't know all that and only thinks that they have to rely on luck, then they will experience more losses.

Fools make decisions based on luck. If we don't make a decision thinking that what is in fate, will that decision ever come in our favor? Trading and gambling are two different things, if trading and gambling were the same thing, then we would say that trading depends a lot on luck, but where the success or failure of trading depends on one's own skill, there is a story of how a person succeeds in trading depending on luck.
In the case of trading, we cannot rely on our total luck, we must try to use as much as we know. If before accepting a trade I feel that there is a fifty percent chance of losing me by accepting this trade then I will never accept that trade. I know I have to take risks but I will take those risks when I think that taking the trade now is more likely to be profitable after doing a thorough research on the market.

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Quote from: Mahanton on October 05, 2023, 04:50:21 PM

Quote from: letteredhub on October 05, 2023, 09:05:20 AM

It is typical of newcomers to think that by some means of luck they could be successful traders but trading doesn't work that way, trading success doesn't rely on luck but strictly on skills, anyone could be lucky with a trade they open but in that luck 99% is dependent on your applied skills and strategy to that very trade.

If this was gambling I could more or less agree about luck but same doesn't apply with trading that's why it's advisable for traders to keep learning different trading skills and strategy till they discover the very one that works best for them and pitch your tent there stead of sitting on luck.

This is true on which on which if you are still a complete noob then you would really be having this kind of intent or belief in mind that it is really that something that similar to gambling
on which it would really be normal that you would be having that gambler like kind of approach until you would realize that this isnt something that really needs to have that kind of dealing
but rather you should go to that serious part on analyzing and studying more rather than on being careless and easy go lucky kind of behavior.

For noobs like that who harbor such intent mistaking trading to gambling before they can arrive to a realization of the difference they must have burned their account with whatever amount they started with. Trading without study and analysis is just gambling your money without a chance. Trading is a serious business like a financial battle with people (experts) on the other side and that's why the only guaranteed way to stand a winning chance is to be equipped with as much strategic trading skills necessary to stay out of loss.

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Quote from: Awaklara on October 06, 2023, 09:33:21 PM

Quote from: cafter on October 03, 2023, 06:09:35 PM

I considered this experiment a success mainly due to the fact that I was trading on a demo account with no emotional involvement, and the trades automatically closed when they reached their stop loss levels, and I did not make impulsive decisions to alter the stop loss orders.

in a demo account, you may be able to continue winning in the trades you open. but on a real account, it might not be that easy for you to make a profit.
the way you do it, chances are your luck is better than your analytical skills. or you might try it for trading on a real account. If it still works, you are definitely a gambler with high luck. stick with your small bet, never increase it.

The demo account is like a practice area where no matter how many times you become perfect there and succeed in making a lot of money, it still can't be called success because your success in the demo account is only artificial. You get it?

The only thing a demo account can do to help you is give you an idea of what technique or step you should take so that you can make a profit in trading. But you must remember that when in the real world of trading you apply ideas or what you learned in the demo account, the difference is huge from the actual trade, and usually what you expect to be able to do is always right in the demo account in the actual trade is not like that, believe me.

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Quote from: cafter on October 03, 2023, 06:09:35 PM

I tried to trade without any analysis, relying only on luck, I was flipping a coin for each trade I entered.
During a three day period, I initiated three trades per day, each with a small profit target and a stop-loss order. Surprisingly, these results outperformed the trades I made based on speculation and trend analysis.
it is important to note that the long term outcome remains uncertain.
I considered this experiment a success mainly due to the fact that I was trading on a demo account with no emotional involvement, and the trades automatically closed when they reached their stop loss levels, and I did not make impulsive decisions to alter the stop loss orders.
In real trading scenarios, emotional factors, such as adjusting stop-loss levels and increasing leverage, often lead to losses.

Whatever strategy you apply in trading using a demo account, even if it is successful, can never be said to be a success for traders because it does not involve emotions, and whatever percentage of stop loss you apply will not affect when it reaches the percentage you have set.
So never use a demo account if you feel the strategy is good enough to apply to your trading, only then will you realize how trading based on luck is a mistake because it is the same as gambling.

irhact

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Quote from: cafter on October 03, 2023, 06:09:35 PM

I tried to trade without any analysis, relying only on luck, I was flipping a coin for each trade I entered.
During a three day period, I initiated three trades per day, each with a small profit target and a stop-loss order. Surprisingly, these results outperformed the trades I made based on speculation and trend analysis.
it is important to note that the long term outcome remains uncertain.
I considered this experiment a success mainly due to the fact that I was trading on a demo account with no emotional involvement, and the trades automatically closed when they reached their stop loss levels, and I did not make impulsive decisions to alter the stop loss orders.
In real trading scenarios, emotional factors, such as adjusting stop-loss levels and increasing leverage, often lead to losses.

That's the difference there, you were trading on a demo account and any individual that has used a demo account can tell that there's a difference between trading live and trading on a demo account. When you're live there's an anxiety, emotions and other things affecting the decision you make. You'll be more careful on live account because there's a risk of losing your money if you lost the trade but on demo account you'll be too confident as there's no real money involved.

Your trading time wasn't for a long term that's why you feel trading can be done on luck, every beginner gets beginners luck when they trade as they can open few trades without any analysis and make profits but they can't sustain that as they'll lose to the market eventually. No individual should trade by just guessing and hoping on luck.

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Quote from: cafter on October 03, 2023, 06:09:35 PM

I considered this experiment a success mainly due to the fact that I was trading on a demo account with no emotional involvement, and the trades automatically closed when they reached their stop loss levels, and I did not make impulsive decisions to alter the stop loss orders.

in a demo account, you may be able to continue winning in the trades you open. but on a real account, it might not be that easy for you to make a profit.
the way you do it, chances are your luck is better than your analytical skills. or you might try it for trading on a real account. If it still works, you are definitely a gambler with high luck. stick with your small bet, never increase it.

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Quote from: Hypnosis00 on October 06, 2023, 06:13:09 PM

What you did will simply tell us that having into a trade without any market analysis will end up getting lucky or not, and the chances in very slim. Considering the volatile nature of the market, you can't simply put your trade on the way, or else, you're making this for a loss.
That experiment will show something that every trader has different outcomes even though they are using the same strategy and this is because we all have different market approaches, understanding, and emotions.

the OP just got lucky with his trades without doing any analysis. i hope new traders won't copy his technique because it doesn't work for all. not a valid trading strategy by any means. because you are like gambling with your trading activities.
and if he continues to do so, playing with his luck, sooner or later, he will incur losses that he will regret. you can't play on this game for long without suffering any loss.

Hypnosis00

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Quote from: cafter on October 03, 2023, 06:09:35 PM

I tried to trade without any analysis, relying only on luck, I was flipping a coin for each trade I entered.
During a three day period, I initiated three trades per day, each with a small profit target and a stop-loss order. Surprisingly, these results outperformed the trades I made based on speculation and trend analysis.
it is important to note that the long term outcome remains uncertain.
I considered this experiment a success mainly due to the fact that I was trading on a demo account with no emotional involvement, and the trades automatically closed when they reached their stop loss levels, and I did not make impulsive decisions to alter the stop loss orders.
In real trading scenarios, emotional factors, such as adjusting stop-loss levels and increasing leverage, often lead to losses.

What you did will simply tell us that having into a trade without any market analysis will end up getting lucky or not, and the chances in very slim. Considering the volatile nature of the market, you can't simply put your trade on the way, or else, you're making this for a loss.
That experiment will show something that every trader has different outcomes even though they are using the same strategy and this is because we all have different market approaches, understanding, and emotions.

Dr.Bitcoin_Strange

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Subjecting trading to being based on purely luck is the wrong motive, as it could even cause a trader to experience more losses than usual. For one to trade efficiently, they need to learn and understand the basic principles of trading, because that's what can help them have more successful trades than failed trades. Some experienced traders know when it's more suitable to enter the market and also when it's more risky to enter a trade, and what helps them to know all that is because of the trading tools that they use to analyze the market before they start to trade, but for a newbie who doesn't know all that and only thinks that they have to rely on luck, then they will experience more losses.

Twentyonepaylots

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Quote from: tjtonmoy on October 06, 2023, 01:20:51 PM

In trading, if you do anything best on luck, then that becomes gambling. And as we know with every gamble, The winning chance is 50/50. You may win or you may lose. So the same thing could happen while trading if you are doing it based on luck. Those trade May outperform your carefully analyzed trades, but the outcome is always uncertain.

If winning in trading without any basis then it becomes gambling? I don't think so, I believe trading is a form of gamble because it involves money and chances of losing and winning.

But for OP, you shouldn't be experimenting trading with just a luck, it is called trading for a reason, you just don't trade to lose unlike gambling that is mainly for entertainment.

Quote from: tjtonmoy on October 06, 2023, 01:20:51 PM

if you are a day trader then this might help, but not entirely. There are people same as you who are gambling their way through trading. They are doing the same thing as you have done. They have open trades based on their luck. And they are gambling too. So you are making profit from that. It could be a short-term profit. But when you look at the bigger picture, it becomes more clear and those small changes that you think were profit means nothing. Cause in the long run, luck never works.

Have the same thing in mind, you could do this with day trading with less duration candles like 5 minutes or 15 minutes, you can play with this with just a luck since it is very hard to predict things with such a short period of time especially in trading. Can we say that the money you get in trading like this is a profit? I mean yes it is a gain but it does not come from sole trading?

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Quote from: tjtonmoy on October 06, 2023, 01:20:51 PM

In trading, if you do anything best on luck, then that becomes gambling. And as we know with every gamble, The winning chance is 50/50. You may win or you may lose. So the same thing could happen while trading if you are doing it based on luck. Those trade May outperform your carefully analyzed trades, but the outcome is always uncertain.

It is not only in trading, everything can be a form of gambling if we do it just relying on the luck. It means less or almost no effort to raise the chance of a success. But if we do it with certain analysis/approach and it is according to the knowledge/experience we have, it is not a type of gambling. In trading, we must do serious analysis before we decide anything whether to buy or sell coins. We can do analysis because we have knowledge and experience. So, fundamentally, a trader never only relies on the luck because they do certain ways.

Quote from: tjtonmoy on October 06, 2023, 01:20:51 PM

if you are a day trader then this might help, but not entirely. There are people same as you who are gambling their way through trading. They are doing the same thing as you have done. They have open trades based on their luck. And they are gambling too. So you are making profit from that.

It is not as easy as you described, mate. Also we do day trading, it is untrue to trade based on luck. I believe those day traders who apply this way, probably have bigger chance to fail than succeed. Sometimes the prices of crypto coins can change drastically in a day. If we trade without a deep analysis, we may be not ready when the trend of a coin to change immediately.

tjtonmoy

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In trading, if you do anything best on luck, then that becomes gambling. And as we know with every gamble, The winning chance is 50/50. You may win or you may lose. So the same thing could happen while trading if you are doing it based on luck. Those trade May outperform your carefully analyzed trades, but the outcome is always uncertain.
if you are a day trader then this might help, but not entirely. There are people same as you who are gambling their way through trading. They are doing the same thing as you have done. They have open trades based on their luck. And they are gambling too. So you are making profit from that. It could be a short-term profit. But when you look at the bigger picture, it becomes more clear and those small changes that you think were profit means nothing. Cause in the long run, luck never works.

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Quote from: cafter on October 03, 2023, 06:09:35 PM

I tried to trade without any analysis, relying only on luck, I was flipping a coin for each trade I entered.
During a three day period, I initiated three trades per day, each with a small profit target and a stop-loss order. Surprisingly, these results outperformed the trades I made based on speculation and trend analysis.
it is important to note that the long term outcome remains uncertain.
I considered this experiment a success mainly due to the fact that I was trading on a demo account with no emotional involvement, and the trades automatically closed when they reached their stop loss levels, and I did not make impulsive decisions to alter the stop loss orders.
In real trading scenarios, emotional factors, such as adjusting stop-loss levels and increasing leverage, often lead to losses.

You were lucky OP, that you gamble for the past three days and it worked out for you and that is why I said that you are lucky. Your pattern of trading will only be profitable to you once in a while because you don't have the skill to trade and this strategy wouldn't be profitable in the long run. Trading needs skill for one to be able to make profit and to continue with his trading activities, because you have to know the right strategy which that works for you. One can be a professional trading due to his skill and experience in the market but gambling is totally based on luck. You should also remember that trading can be easy on demo account because there is nothing to lose and no emotion attached to it.

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Quote from: Bananington on October 04, 2023, 03:31:32 PM

Quote from: |MINER| on October 04, 2023, 03:07:57 PM

No, Trading is not entirely dependent on luck. Gambling depends on luck. And tarding and gambling are not the same. Although trading and gambling have some similarities, they are not the same. Trading is dependent on skill. The more skilled he is, the better he is at trading. In order to do trading, you must have sufficient knowledge about bitcoin. You must have the ability to understand the situation of the market. Understand Hold and Sell. What to know about Bull Runs Trading theory is time consuming. It needs a lot of time to understand. No one can master it very quickly. Moreover, it is possible to learn a lot by following the experts in the forum. Gambling and trading are never the same. One requires skill and the other requires luck.

Well said. It is unless from my perspective, the trade was cancelled but it didn't work and alot of gain was made from the glitch wherein one can say it was luck, then such doesn't easily happen.
Trading is intentional as well as gambling. It is the outcome of the action you made that broight the luck of a win, I don't know if I should classify losing as luck in this case too but trading is more of a calculated risk than luck factor.

Yes, to get the desired results from trading, of course we can determine what we want from the presentation. Therefore, if trading is based on luck, it is certainly not appropriate to say that, because in trading we can consider avoiding losses

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Well, I will not say anything with your experiment because 3 days is just too short to conclude that trading purely basing on luck outperforms trading that's purely basing on TA, and news.

On the flipside, with what you said, there might be some readers out there who might try it, but this time with actual money. I'm not trading anymore since I lost a few months ago, but I didn't ever tried this type of strategy. On the other hand, emotions are very different when there's money involved. You can control your emotions when you're in a demo account only, but when there's money involved, what you can control when using a demo account might not be controlled when using true money.

Overall, I would like to request to OP to try it for a longer period of time. Let's say 15 days? Or 30 days? And also try it with actual money, then share your results here.

We would be happy to see it for sure.

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Quote from: Heartilly on October 03, 2023, 06:57:10 PM

If that's work for you, then just continue. But still I don't want to rely on purely luck when it comes on trading.

I think he is better to stop it, why should continue it? It is a bad idea to trade with no analysis and use a random way.
I guess he may be just lucky that time, it probably can't work anymore if he apply the same way for a long time.

Quote from: Heartilly on October 03, 2023, 06:57:10 PM

Maybe you have a good winning percentage for now but time will come when relying on luck might instead give you a sudden loss and continuous losing streak. Maybe just try to make it balance, still relying on your luck while at the same time, still applying your trading analysis.

It is very possible to happen. Relying on the luck won't work a long time, it is the wrong way in trading. It will be worse if he use a big money, he is very possible to experience severe losses in the future by using the random way.

Quote from: Heartilly on October 03, 2023, 06:57:10 PM

I don't consider your experiment as a success. From what I read, you only based on 3 days period. Tried to make it monthly.

His experiment can be called a success if he could earn profits at that time. But it is not recommended to use the same way in the future because it is not a proven way. IMO, it is not a type of experiment, it is just trying his luck.

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Quote from: cafter on October 03, 2023, 06:09:35 PM

I tried to trade without any analysis, relying only on luck, I was flipping a coin for each trade I entered.
During a three day period, I initiated three trades per day, each with a small profit target and a stop-loss order. Surprisingly, these results outperformed the trades I made based on speculation and trend analysis.
it is important to note that the long term outcome remains uncertain.
I considered this experiment a success mainly due to the fact that I was trading on a demo account with no emotional involvement, and the trades automatically closed when they reached their stop loss levels, and I did not make impulsive decisions to alter the stop loss orders.
In real trading scenarios, emotional factors, such as adjusting stop-loss levels and increasing leverage, often lead to losses.

As an experiment it is interesting that you were able to get better results than when you traded the markets with a purpose, however the experiment was performed with the best possible conditions you could find so it could succeed, if you were to do this with real trading conditions it is very unlikely you will get the same results, as it is simply impossible for a trader to remain calm now that they have decided to let go of the only way they had to control their actions and now they are relying completely on their luck.

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Quote from: Kasabus on October 05, 2023, 05:31:58 PM

Your trading experiment might probably work in three days but not sustainable enough to work for long term. That is because luck is not the only requirement in trading but you need knowledge and skills as well so you will be able to succeed on your trades regardless on the position of the market. Although being emotionless in trading will help you to be successful, but we all know it’s a lot different when we are trading with our live account as emotions will always be there triggering our trades.

thats true, probably just short lived luck moreover its demo account, i don't know, but it seemed most people are having good trades with demo account but suffer miserably when using live account.
it might be just placebo effect but i guess its because most people are so confident in their trade if they don't use their own money.
but when it comes to their own money things changes.
therefore this isn't really an experiment, its also have no correlation with luck honestly, i mean you are lucky if you trades with your own money and profit not just demo account.

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Quote from: Litzki1990 on October 05, 2023, 01:49:54 AM

You say you depend on luck to succeed in business but I cannot agree with you. Fortune depends on one's hard work and one's efforts. A hardworking person aims to achieve something in his life and a lazy person dreams that success will catch him by himself, a person is striving to reach his goal another person is passing his time in idleness and waiting for something amazing to happen here. A person who works hard is more likely to achieve success. You may have started training without understanding about trading but later you tried to gain understanding about trading and gained practical experience because of which you were able to achieve success in your business. So if you want to achieve success, you must try, it is not possible to achieve success depending only on luck.

Well, OP is not talking about business but Trading. Of course, we never succeed if we just rely on luck but rather make use of our knowledge and skills as a tool to earn a profit from trading. But OP had a sort of market trial using demo accounts and that seemed to easy to win our emotions since there is no real money involved there unlike when we are using our hard-earned money, a lot of things are changed.

Anyways, whether we are in trading or business, sometimes we are hoping for some luck but of course, it should be accompanied by hard work and effort.

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Quote from: Xampeuu on October 04, 2023, 11:13:30 PM

Honestly, congratulations to you, but relying on luck will not come again and again, maybe luck will come once or twice, but not many times. What you are using is a demo account and this will be very different if we use a real account, where there will be lots of complex problems that have to be controlled. especially in terms of psychology which can disrupt our trading patterns, and this must be trained gradually

That’s true because in trading you have to be more wise on using indicators and know how to do a technical analysis. Luck might be present at some of your trade but don’t depend on that always, just be more active on learning how to trade properly than to trade purely depend on luck. Again, trading can be very risky so don’t over confident and make sure that you will trade based on the analysis and not on any guess trade.

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