Topic: trading purely based on luck. - page 3. (Read 475 times)

Relying on trading with only luck is called gambling because it is only based on feelings without any analysis.

Even beginners who are just entering the world of trading do this kind of thing, relying on luck and trading Futures.
You can imagine how the risk is, once wrong, everything will be lost.

Trading is quite complex, relying on all technical, fundamental and psychological knowledge,
so do not just rely on one method alone.

Trading also requires risk management, and financial management to avoid deep losses.
When good management is done, trading will also run well.

You are right, we should not trade totally on luck, because it's just like opening a business without any experience and totally depending on luck. And in the end, when you fail you will talk bad about the business, not about you. And will not accept your mistake. We all should not depend on luck only.

No doubt, religious people think that a thing will happen if it is in our luck but luck can be changed with prayer.

So, we should make an effort first, do hard work, should do proper analysis so that we would get profits more than losses. The profit ratio can only be increased when you do your part of the homework completely. But here the OP did not trade in the real market, he did not use the real money and as he said there was no emotional factor, maybe that's why he made that much profit.

I think the same, if we lack or ignore emotional trading then we might try our luck but as many others said, luck should not be our first priority.

I don't think so. Yes, despite the fact that technical analysis does not guarantee that it can be 100% accurate, relying on trading results on luck is still not good. at least our little analysis can help decide. no need to worry about whatever the outcome is. because we understand that trading risk means trading with high risk.

Is this futures trading?
You tried trading in the form of a demo account, correct? Often times we try to trade using a demo account and we will find positive results or profits, but it is different from a real account. If we trade using a real account, the percentage of success or profit depends on the analysis which is in line with market direction.
Of course emotional factors, pressure, TA and fundamental analysis will have an influence. If you use a demo account, you are usually mentally and emotionally alert because you are not using only demo money, and if you experience a minus or loss it also doesn't affect us. This is different from a real account where our money is at stake there. We can really lose money if the market does not match our analysis. Therefore speculating or trading without analysis with a real account is the same as gambling or wasting money for nothing. It's better to stop and don't do anything stupid.

Congratulations on making that profitable. It might be your lucky day(s)! Maybe you would be able to win a lot if you gambled. ^{This is not an advice to start gambling}

Anyway, it's amazing how you can see that the market isn't picking anyone or anything. It can be pure luck.

You might be able to make a profit depending on your luck with this decision, but you have to keep in mind that this is never a sustainable strategy. You should not use this strategy all the time as you are short term for trading and get profit but it will never give long term profit. Profit and you can be successful in your trading mainly by using sustainable strategies that trade for a long period of time. You will never be successful if you are always trading based on your luck rather than your general skill. That's why you should first gain knowledge about different trading strategies and then place stop-loss orders to minimize your losses. But you always have to think that short term trades will never bring you huge profits so you have to think higher where you can be successful in long term trades.

We can have 90% of the luck on our side if we know how to do that. You can learn about the nature of successful traders as they work out their plan, create strategies and have the flexibility to change their strategy in any unexpected situation that occurs.

A trader can exclude his emotional actions from every trade he makes by having a great money management strategy. I think it will be able to increase our winning chance and reduce our probability of losing a trade significantly. Trading bots have their own limitations and challenges. They need a specific situation to occur in the market to give an effective result.

Now a small example like this, as you have said this friend does make sense and is a very strong reason to reject the statement that "trading is just luck". They have spent a lot of time learning about everything that should be learned in this trading, such as sitting in front of the screen to study the charts that always happen, besides that they also use capital to enter this field, and with that alone it is clear that I do not accept if there is a statement that says this is all just luck. Well it is true that for planning problems, especially in self-control, it is a bit the same as gambling in general which really relies on luck, but the rest is very different, there is absolutely no serious learning in gambling other than just self-control and limits there, that's quite clear.

For example, look at it now, there are quite a lot of people who are successful from trading, it's because the process will not betray the results they are sure of that, no other than they have gone through many things such as losses and other mental pressures there so that they have been trained and can get consistent results with the best strategy and planning from their experience, and finally have you ever seen gamblers who for example have years of success just based on luck? no, it doesn't make sense.

What you are saying is not trading, it is gambling, which is a bad type of gambling that depends on luck, while even gambling is an adventure with calculated risks.

If you do not know what you are doing, the best strategy to follow is DCA because it reduces the impact of the time factor and leaves the investment on the long-term path, which is an upward path based on the history of Bitcoin and previous transactions.
If you want to trade, read more about technical analysis, support and resistance, and do not rely on luck.

this is not valid for all traders, as each trader has different circumstances and risk considerations than others, copying another user’s trading plan or risk management is a mistake.

All successful traders have a strategy and adherence to risk management, they spend a lot of time in front of charts, but they would not need to do this if they relied only on luck. Trading for luck will definitely not eliminate emotions, but most likely will only intensify them, since in this case trading will become similar to gambling. We don’t even hear about such a thing as trading for luck, because most likely it will be a very short-lived activity for those who try to do it.

        It just depends on the individual belief, because there are others that gambling and trading are the same, but most people don't believe because trading is very far from gambling, which is really true. Now, if you have done trading without analysis done, it turns out that you really gambled your capital.

       You traded and just hoped for luck, as if Batman would take care of it. That kind of method is not right for a trader who has knowledge of the crypto business industry.

That certainly can't hide the fact that emotion is a big factor that would change everything, the plan and market analysis. That is why we have to pursue our trading journey, we not just learn how to read the chart, do analysis, etc., but most importantly is that we must know how to control our emotions otherwise, we fail. Trading requires knowledge and skill in order to earn a profit and luck is just bonus. So we know what we have to focus on and work for it if we want to succeed.

Yes, totally different results when using demo accounts than real trades.

And now you must be wishing that those trades were not made on Demo account hehe. Well, that's due to the emotional factors of ours. You just emphasized the bad impact of emotional factors on our trades. It's like we have to become robots (Emotion less) to make profits out of market.

But I think Robots do not have luck only humans and living things have (that's a belief). Well, we should not practice trading solely on luck because I did tried that when I started to trade in future and made profits in cents. I played by rule, means, I did not fall greedy for more money, my leverage was low, and I enter with only some money that I fear to lose not. But one day I fall greedy even I was making profits and I made an impulsive trade and lost not only that's day profit but all of my capital too.

So avoid impulsive trading and luck trading, do add a TA and FA in your trading then leave everything on luck.

Analyses is very important in trading. You make guess works but that does not mean the outcome will continue to be better. Trading is like luck though but knowledge and experience are important.


If you want increasing leveraging, averaging will be better for you. I mean instead if starting the trade from 1x, you can decide to start from 0.1 or 0.2x and average it until it is 1x. That is better than leveraging.

I do not use stop loss in trading if using averaging.

Haha, crypto trading can really sometimes feel like a game of chance, but most successful traders rely on strategy and analysis rather than just luck. It's a bit of both, I guess!

I don't believe it's possible to completely eliminate emotions when real money is involved. One way to mitigate this is by setting up a trading bot that follows predefined rules. But a trading bot that operates randomly probably won't do well in the long run.

A trader can't get trading experience if he is doing trading in a demo account. He will only get the understanding of the lookout of trading,  but the actual experience a trader should need will not come if he is doing trading in the demo account.

In the demo account a trader won't lose anything,  he wouldn't know what is stress in trading? He wouldn't know how to deal with stress in trading? He wouldn't know how to overcome stress in trading? He will do trading without fear and without any hurdles of money. He can't get the right aspects of trading. We all know trading requires some certain skills. If the trader is doing it in a demo account,  how could he get the trading skills? If he is not going to analyze the tokens at different stages. I have seen many posts regarding the trading stress. Many people asks here how to overcome it?

Demo account is  totally different experience,  when it comes to actual trading,  then there a person learn so many things,  where analytics depends,  where graphs depends,  where stress depends,  where less money or more money depends. This would be a good trader if he learns there.

Fools do business depending on luck. How many people can you show who have succeeded in trading by relying on luck? I am trying to explain something to you easily. 
Suppose your house caught fire in front of you, if you don't call the fire service if you see the fire, if you think that fate will happen, will your house be saved from fire? You must call the fire service to extinguish the fire. Luck doesn't matter here but it depends on how much effort you put into it. 

If you have no idea about a particular business but if you fall into that business you do not understand the process of doing business then how will you profit from that business. If all things were so simple then people would not have acquired such great degrees in business. 
So stop relying on luck, learn to create luck.

Your analysis didn't work because you don't know how to use it, there are no other ways to make money from trading apart from analysing the market, you can't blindly open a pair of trades and decide to put in some money and expect some moves. However, I understand your position, the bitcoin market doesn't have speculation right now, the market is even stagnant, the whales are trying to increase their longs but it keeps rejecting at $28k, I believe that was where you traded and made some profits, you should have tried trade trading 2 days ago prior before resistance and you will understand the difference between luck and technical analysis.

The only time the mind works on trading is when you are uncertain about the outcome of technical, if fundamental>>>Technical, you don't need any tools to indicate any signals. Even in bull run, this things happens, you don't need anyone to give you indicator that the bitcoin market is going to pump because everyone knows it will happen, similarly to bear market, you can't stop market from nuking if there should be a very bad news.

Trading does not depend solely on luck. If the trading was random, the probability of achieving a profit would be 50% and the probability of a loss would be 50% in the ideal case, and it decreases due to feelings, fear and greed. Therefore, the probability of achieving a profit from the trader will be less than 50%, and therefore in trading you lose more than you win, which is mistake.
Trading is based on some simple rules and the basics of technical analysis, which are not 100% accurate, but they have a good amount of validity, especially in the long term, and this amount decreases the shorter the term, but in the end, it is not random or dependent on coincidence. This is what makes someone rely on coincidence. He who has the information loses and makes profits, but he will not always make profits because some predictions will be wrong.

Luck can play a factor in your trading, but I don't think that you can trade purely based on luck.
And trading relying on luck cannot be applied especially if you have long term goals. Maybe you can do it if you're trying to generate quick gains so basically it is only for the short term. But again, this is still not advisable as it can negatively affect your trading habits. Thus, it is still better that you trade responsibly by applying analysis and strategies for better outcomes. Then again, we all have different strategies and takes about trading, if it works for you doesn't mean it will work for others, or vice versa.

Lastly, we all know that trading is a risk that we take, and relying on luck would make it riskier.