Topic: Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate Bitcoin (Read 914 times)

OP updated with latest screenshot, not much to add from December 2019 analysis: the accumulation zone remains between the 2 & 4 Year MAs.


While price notably closed a Weekly candle below the projected 4 Year MA, this was nothing more than a fakeout and buying opportunity as previously suggested.
Given the current 2015 fractal comparison, it's possible that another re-test of the 4 Year MA (or close to) will occur, but also not necessary given the differences in price action.

OP screenshot updated. Despite these MA lines not quite accurate, due to the black swan event, I'm still sticking to this TA from December 2019:
Accumulating between the 1 & 2 Year MAs remain good buying opportunities for the long-term.

Screenshot updated. Nothing to describe, original TA from December 2019 remains relevant:

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Recent TA from elsewhere:

OP updated with latest screenshot.

Yesterday we closed a Daily candle a few hundred dollars above the 2 Year MA, that was previously acted as strong resistance:



This has lasted a lot longer this time, but notably falling through the 2 Year MA hasn't followed through with capitulation, but repeated dip buying.
I'm beginning to realise this is starting to resemble more like 2016, when price fell below the 2 Year MA, but was quickly bought back up:



Admittedly, others that pointed to this correction looking more like 2016 than 2015 (exstasie I believe), now have a valid point I believe...
Kudos to them for arguing there point, even if I believe there is still further accumulation ahead:

Wouldn't be far from reality.

I do think that we're entering another phase of accumulation at the moment, and this time round do expect institutions to pile up their coins as well. Right now the strategy to go to is dollar cost averaging in my opinion, because that gives you the most chance of making a profit in the long run while eliminating the risks of buying too much at too high a price in the short term.

So yes, if you still have fiat cash, this is certainly a time to enter the market with the halving coming up.

Sometimes people who want bitcoin do tend to get too caught up in attempting to acquire bitcoin for free, and then they end up hardly accumulating any bitcoin.  I have witnessed that over and over and over.

Sometimes, it can be good to get a high paying job in fiat (if you can) and then just buy bitcoin with a reasonable percentage of your income on an ongoing basis.

Of course, in this thread, there is an attempt to try to time the accumulation, so presumably when in an accumulation zone, any bitcoin HODLer wannabe would attempt to accumulate more BTC during accumulation phases - yet with bitcoin, historically, we have witnessed that all times have been good to accumulate bitcoin, so long as the timeline of the accumulator is at least 3.5 years.  Surely historical performance does not guarantee future results, but it still seems that in bitcoin, if your timeline is long enough then anyone aspiring to acquire a reasonably prudent stake in bitcoin, whether that is 1% of your investible assets 10% or some other reasonably prudent amount that is tailored to your own situation, then you would be wanting to accumulate by any means necessary and not necessarily getting caught up in possible scammy shit like bounty campaigns... and even if they are not exactly scammy, they might be way too little of a way of accumulating BTC as compared to figuring out more lucrative ways... like I mentioned if it is possible for any BTC accumulator wannabe to earn decent amounts of fiat and then to buy BTC to get a decent stake in the game.. because sometimes there is no turning back.. if king daddy decides to have a bit of an exponential and unexpected growth spurt (surly nice to be "in" during those kinds of times).

That’s a good advice. I am accumulating bitcoin from different source (one is bitcointalk bounty campaign). Just get bitcoin as much as you can and secure them in wallet and forget them. Dont look at bitcoin price on daily basis. Return when crypto market is up with liquidity.

To be fair, that's not traditionally how you trade MAs. You would wait for confirmation of a close above the MA, maybe even consildation above it turning it into support, possibly even continuation as well; a move above the previous swing high. To me, this MA hasn't given you a buy signal since acting as resistance, it has told you to stay out of any momentum based trade on a Daily time-frame as it failed to close above this level on three occasions now. If anything, it's telling you there is a confirmed pattern and to take the opportunity to short when/if price reaches it again, especially now it is sloping downwards, implying a bearish posture and two-year price action.

Interpret the MAs how you please however, that's what they are there for.

I wouldn't really follow the 2 year MA so much because according to the charts above and your predictions we were bearish below it and bullish above it. The line is at 7500, so just a few days ago we were above which would signal a bullish reversal (we spent 2 days above 7500, almost reaching 7700). And now we are again below it. So an investor using the 2 year ma as his indicator of bullishness would go in on December 23 and almost instantly lose 5%.
Don't get me wrong, I'm buying now, but 2y MA is not the best way to identify bullish breakouts.

On reflection, the 100 & 200 Week MAs are what traders use, the yearly MAs are physiologically more relevant to long-term investors and therefore accumulation periods.


From the following screenshot, I think you'll agree that the 730 MA has been a lot quicker and more accurate in identifying resistance than the 700 MA (old support):



Just noticed as well that these MAs even crossed at the end of October when price was around $9,500 which appears relevant. Notice how the 700 MA was acting as support, but now it's the 730 MA is acting as resistance (after the bear cross; a longer-term MA moving below a shorter-term MA):



Also, potentially relevant to the 4 Year MA (in comparison to the 200 Week MA):

Anyone reason why you chose to use the 2 year and 4 year MA instead of the 200 weekly moving average that most people are plotting on the BLX index. Basically it has held everytime and got us out of the bear market back in December 2018.

This index is currently sitting at $5063 and it increases about $30 every week and it actually should provide very good support. And depending when BTC will break the $6400 area and head into the low $5K's then it might affect the WMA because it might be at $5300 in 10 weeks time and $5600 in 20 weeks time so we will see how it plays out.

2 Year MA confirmed as resistance with third rejection:




Note how this MA was sloping upwards when bullish, and now has rolled over and sloping downwards becoming bearish. Long-term MAs don't lie, even if they are lagging.
It should go without saying that getting back above this MA, and turning it into support, would signal the end of the accumulation zone.

It is normal to feel that way especially that it been quite a while already and the expected bull run didn’t come yet and the price right now is very low but I know bitcoin will really bounce back and we will be able to experience the bull run we just have to be more patient with our holdings and try to maximize your profits in every situation.
Bitcoin was able to bounce back before after a massive dump so we will have a repeat of that just have faith in bitcoin.

Here's a quick update, as this was on the Daily chart with an extrapolated imminent fractal that hasn't so far been playing out... so here's my thoughts.

Again, I agree, as it would be "close enough" to the 4 Year MA and another example whales front running the market. Arguably as we already had, with a lack of wick below the 200 Week MA last year. Whether you want to see it as the 200 Week (1400 Days) or 4 Year MA (1460 Days) isn't relevant in this case, there's only a couple of months between these long-term MAs. Similarly with the 100 Week (700 Days) or 2 Year MA (730 Days). The Point is not about differentiating between these, but looking at things from a different perspective.
People care more about the time-frame of years, than they do 100 or 200 weeks in my opinion. Hence using these MAs on a daily chart, as oppose to usual on the Weekly.
Hope that explains the irrelevant distinction.

Fair enough but it starts to feel like curve-fitting to focus only on the 4-year MA. I think retreating to the 200-week MA again would make the same point.


Yes, I'm of the school of thought that says price never needs to touch a specific level for the associated support to come in. Markets often overshoot or undershoot specific S/R.

Nice to see there are positive air in this thread. While kits good to accumulate btc by buying and selling, I don't do that in BTC pair but only on some coins I like trading specially the rare pairs like BTC/ADA or BTC/ETH because its where I can accumulate either. This is is you also believe in ADA or ETH yourself this way you won;t have regrets if which coin you have at hand while the bullrun starts.

It's absolutely thrilling to just watch the charts On the brink of droping below 7k$ but then pushing up. Looks like accumulation tbh.

There is a reversal pattern in today's trend, but it needs further confirmation whether it is truly reversal or false signal.
At least until the end of December the price direction will be seen after that.