In my opinion the second list is more accurate. Of course, I also disagree with such a low assessment of Croatia and I think that Croatia, Denmark and the Netherlands should be quoted equally. Otherwise, everything is more or less fair, especially given the randomness of what is happening in the playoffs.
LOL.. Croatia is far ahead of the other two. When was the last time that Danmark performed well in a major international tournament? The same goes for Netherlands as well. These two are dying teams within the UEFA confederation. Danmark failed to win even a single match during FIFA World Cup of 2022. They lost to Australia and France, and then were held by Tunisia for a goalless draw. Netherlands somehow managed to get to the round of 16, partly due to their karate and MMA skills on field. But in the quarter-finals, they got destroyed by Argentina.
You keep being biased against Argentina "Destroyed" by Argentina is that what they call a miserable lottery win now?
Regarding Croatia, I think the bookies rate them so low because this team is on a downtrend (due to age), while the Netherlands, on the contrary, have a young team and theoretically they should be getting stronger. I can’t say anything about Denmark, but the fact that they haven’t won anything for a long time is not an argument for European teams - there is too much competition and even top teams can be without titles for decades.