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A) $266 proves to be significant resistance, with attempts to break through being met with an increased selling volume. (We have not seen this behavior to date on this rally.) Such resistance would once again provide a healthy consolidation phase and allow potential buyers to reload.
B) $266 proves to be significant resistance, and this scares a few folks into selling. Right now, only 10,000 Bitcoins sold would take our price back down to $210.
C) $266 gets steadily eaten through over the course of hours or days. The strongest outcome. If this occurs, expect the rally to gain steam.
D) $266 gets blown through by an impulsive move, most likely a high-volume buy. If this occurs, there is a higher likelihood for a head-fake. It will be hardest to know the long-term outcome in this case. I speculate the most likely is a pop above, a high-volume sell-off that follows (with the aim of loosening more bitcoins). When the rally resumes, it will be violent and without warning.
...As for likelihoods and timeframes, I predict we'll encounter B) within a day. After between 1 and 3 failed breakthroughs, D) occurs.
So far, so good. The relative shallowness of the dip, and the rapidity with which the market shrugged it off bodes very well.
