Topic: Uncharted territory. What happens at $266? - page 3. (Read 4750 times)
I think we'll probably blow right by it, since this rally seems to be driven by the chinese, and $266 has no significance for them.
Rocket! 
I think history will repeat and the actual resistance to the ATH will come before we actually get close to it, i.e. happening right now.
Once we break 260 or so we'll breeze right past 266 like it ain't not thing.
Once we break 260 or so we'll breeze right past 266 like it ain't not thing.
With some luck, this thread will only be relevant for the next few days at most (11/5/2013). I figured it was time to dust off my speculation cap. I proudly disclaim that I fall into the uber-bull camp.
With only one historical price benchmark left ($266 Gox ATH), we’re about to enter uncharted territory. The market will be looking for any tea leaves it can find for clues about what will happen next. Watch the behavior around $266 very closely. There are four possible scenarios:
A) $266 proves to be significant resistance, with attempts to break through being met with an increased selling volume. (We have not seen this behavior to date on this rally.) Such resistance would once again provide a healthy consolidation phase and allow potential buyers to reload.
B) $266 proves to be significant resistance, and this scares a few folks into selling. Right now, only 10,000 Bitcoins sold would take our price back down to $210.
C) $266 gets steadily eaten through over the course of hours or days. The strongest outcome. If this occurs, expect the rally to gain steam.
D) $266 gets blown through by an impulsive move, most likely a high-volume buy. If this occurs, there is a higher likelihood for a head-fake. It will be hardest to know the long-term outcome in this case. I speculate the most likely is a pop above, a high-volume sell-off that follows (with the aim of loosening more bitcoins). When the rally resumes, it will be violent and without warning.
If you're day trading, I’d suggest having a pre-existing plan in place for each scenario. Here, minutes will matter.
As for likelihoods and timeframes, I predict we'll encounter B) within a day. After between 1 and 3 failed breakthroughs, D) occurs.
With only one historical price benchmark left ($266 Gox ATH), we’re about to enter uncharted territory. The market will be looking for any tea leaves it can find for clues about what will happen next. Watch the behavior around $266 very closely. There are four possible scenarios:
A) $266 proves to be significant resistance, with attempts to break through being met with an increased selling volume. (We have not seen this behavior to date on this rally.) Such resistance would once again provide a healthy consolidation phase and allow potential buyers to reload.
B) $266 proves to be significant resistance, and this scares a few folks into selling. Right now, only 10,000 Bitcoins sold would take our price back down to $210.
C) $266 gets steadily eaten through over the course of hours or days. The strongest outcome. If this occurs, expect the rally to gain steam.
D) $266 gets blown through by an impulsive move, most likely a high-volume buy. If this occurs, there is a higher likelihood for a head-fake. It will be hardest to know the long-term outcome in this case. I speculate the most likely is a pop above, a high-volume sell-off that follows (with the aim of loosening more bitcoins). When the rally resumes, it will be violent and without warning.
If you're day trading, I’d suggest having a pre-existing plan in place for each scenario. Here, minutes will matter.
As for likelihoods and timeframes, I predict we'll encounter B) within a day. After between 1 and 3 failed breakthroughs, D) occurs.
Jump to: