Topic: Understanding the cash-out option - page 6. (Read 1012 times)

This means most gamblers don’t think long-term as they just see the immediate opportunity and take it without considering the bigger picture. What OP shared is really informative, as it gives us a clearer understanding. And based on that, if cashing out is a regular part of your gambling strategy, it’s worth reconsidering because, as shown, it doesn’t help in the long run.

You have applied your mathematical knowledge into identifying if there is a precise strategy towards cash out. But trust me many persons will still think whatever they think towards cashout. This will not change their view on their personal definition on cashout. If they are in the position to take the offer, their decisions still stand.

Anyway, i understand what you have point out so far.

I’ve read everything you shared, and you’ve explained it well - thank you!

Regarding the last part I quoted, that’s exactly what many posters in the cash-out thread overlook. They assume that cashing out equals securing profit and gives them an advantage. But, as you’ve highlighted through examples and conclusions, cashing out can often have a negative impact on overall betting. It might seem like a safe move, but in the long run, it limits potential gains and can hurt profitability.

I've read 4 topics in the last two days, all about cash-out and every single both questions and answers were so hastily written I am not surprised at all cash-out might still seem like somethign complicated for some.

So let's get over a few basic steps with some help from timeform.


Major points:
- cash-out is an option to get out of a bet before the event has ended
- cash-out will not always be positive, depending on the results and the gameplay you might be allowed to cash-out less than your bet

Moreover, in case of a parlay, an early cash-out even after winning one or two games might not be enough to cover your initial bet, this is because bookies always take into account the bets you have left, I have experienced this with huge parlay selections but it can happen also with smaller bets, so let's check this out:

You put down a simple parlay with two games, both at +200, so 2/1, 3.0, you expect a 900 back.



Scenario one, you won the first game and your team is leading in the second dropping the odds to 100 1/1 or 2.0
Your cash-out is 43.75%, instead of 800 profit you can get now 350.



Scenario two, the matches haven't even started but the odds have gone up by one unit, from 200 to 300 or from 3.0 to 4.0
Your cash-out option suddenly is a loss because the odds have changes against your option, so your games are even riskier and putting a counter bet is even worse now since the odds against is are now lower as yours are higher.


 
A simple formula for those would be:

Cash Out Value = {{(Odds / Live Odds) x Stake} - Stake} / Bookie Margin

So is there any strategy behind cash-out?

Not really unless you're betting from the start with it in mind, a cash-out is mainly a bet, you make a bet by cashing out too, as you think you will lose the last game , you also take a bet by not cashing out, so bottom line it's more like taking a supplementary bet on an already existing one.

Strategies that tend to work or are employed with cash-out:
- you know a team has a tendency to either score or lose game in the last half, you take take a bet waiting for that moment, or you cash out prior to that happening
- in horse racing it's quite useful when betting on horses that like to race in the lead, you pick outsiders that you know might lead the pack and if they are at half way and still going, their odds might drop from 8/1 to 4/1 and you can cash-out at a profit knowing the horse will run out of steam eventually and lose

Bottom line, cash-out is not only a double edge sword that can
- minimalize losses, protect part of your bet and allow you to create a strategy in the last second
- will reduce your profits, will have a negative effect on your state of mind if you missed a big payout
But most importantly is requires timing and discipline, making it impossible for people with tight schedules to execute correctly.