@Creighto
Good call. I agree with everything you say there.
But whatever the final analysis here, I (and I hope you) are discussing the technology whole rather than the specific algorithm called Bitcoin.If it is sound (and personally I believe it rules for many ideological and practical reasons) then it should be adopted.
Where we disagree is that if Bitcoin (the system) is proven sound, you believe that the first to market advantage Bitcoin has will ensure it succeeds over competing algorithms.
I however feel the first to market advantage will be nothing once a credible contender hits the airwaves. If Bitcoin is tested to destruction and passes with flying colors and finally proves itself as a viable currency, the technology itself will be adopted. And Bitcoins first to market status will prove to be its death.
A credible adopter of the technology will not use Bitcoin. Why would they? Give up first access to capital? Nup.
I contend that if the technology proves sound and is adopted, the public will not make a conscious decision to use Bitcoin or not. They will just be told "From now on, Korea Air accepts KCoins" or "Apple has just unveiled a NEW GREAT TECHNOLOGY called Applecoin (ra ra raaaa) " and the muppets will eat it up.
I don't think the public has any concept of privacy, govt interference or just how screwed they are. The U.S just extended the 'Patriot' Act (hah) for four more years, the cops in the U.S can now kick in your door if they smell weed (or say they did)
http://justsaynow.firedoglake.com/2011/05/17/constitutional-rights-a-casualty-of-endless-war/etc etc and Obama will be re-elected in a landslide while adding wars to Bushes total. The public just don't make decisions that are good for them.
So if Bitcoins technology is good enough to be adopted commercially you think they will bootstrap Bitcoin? And pass up those billions and billions of dollars? Doh.
Dramatic advantage? Nah man. All you need is a guarantee from Kirin Beer that each KirinCoin will be able to be redeemed for a 6-pack from here on out and Bitcoin is toast.
The only people with a financially vested interest in making Bitcoin succeed are those who have a bunch of them. If someone with real political or economic power wishes to adopt the technology (and don't forget, I am hoping we are talking about the technology itself here) they will want their own algorithm.
So are you are saying that either the technology itself is not good enough for mass consumption (ie Bitcoin remains a curiosity) and therefore Bitcoin has value because its not good enough to have credible contenders? Or that the technology is sound but anyone wishing to seriously adopt it will bootstrap Bitcoin and forgo all the benefits they could accrue by merely making their own algorithm?