Donald Trump dominates first national poll of 2016More than half of Donald Trump’s supporters say they are strongly committed to voting for him, according to the results of the latest NBC News/SurveyMonkey online tracking poll released Tuesday, the first national poll of 2016.
Overall, the Manhattan mogul commanded the support of 35 percent of the Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters who were surveyed over the past week, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz came in second place with 18 percent support.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio earned 13 percent, followed by 9 percent for Ben Carson, 6 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 4 percent for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and 3 percent for Carly Fiorina, according to the full results shared first on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”
Among those pledging their allegiance to Trump, 51 percent said they would “absolutely” vote for him, while 33 percent indicated a “large chance.” Meanwhile, just 14 percent said the odds were merely 50-50, and only 2 percent said there was little chance they would support him. By comparison, 36 percent of Cruz voters indicated absolute loyalty, with 49 percent saying there is a greater chance, while just 26 percent of Rubio voters said they would “absolutely” vote for their candidate and 49 percent again saying there is a large likelihood that they would.
Along gender lines, Trump took the support of 39 percent of men and 29 percent of women, leading with both groups. Cruz earned support of 21 percent of men and 13 percent of women, while Rubio won the support of 13 percent of men and 14 percent of women.
Trump also leads the way among those describing themselves as white evangelicals (35 percent to Cruz’s 21 percent) and those calling themselves very conservative (35 percent to Cruz’s 30 percent).
Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 53 percent to 36 percent, with former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley earning 2 percent and 8 percent saying they are not sure.
The poll was conducted online Dec. 28-Jan. 3, surveying 3,181 registered voters among a sample of 3,700. The margin of error for 949 registered Republican voters is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, while among 1,060 Democrats the margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/trump-leads-poll-2016-217349