The USA and China are major political rivals, representing very different values, worldviews, and approaches. Honestly, an economic war I believe is better than actual warfare. I would have loved if Russia decided to wage an economic war against my country, Ukraine, instead of literally sending troops, artillery, and missiles.
Economic pressure is an effective way of limiting one's political power, and I would not want to see a world where China becomes #1 over the US, even though I am fully aware that the US has serious human rights issues.
Inflation in the US is managed really well, it's usually well within 5%. The case of the EU is more complex, but I also believe that the hardest time was in 2022.
I don't think inflation will rise, and I'm not even sure that radical Trump will make things worse with China, to be honest. Let's not forget that a part of 'America first' and MAGA is focusing on internal politics and what's profitable for the US citizens, after all.
Topic: US-China economy war + radical Trump = higher inflation + interest rates + war - page 2. (Read 386 times)
July 18, 2024, 09:34:44 AM
July 18, 2024, 07:50:14 AM
Another way they've always used to control inflation is to bring down energy prices (remember Petrodollar).
In order to do that they'll have to increase the supply of oil in the global market.
To do that they need to (1) remove sanctions on Russia and let that oil flow again (2) convince Arab dictators to increase their production (3) end the wars in West Asia so that security comes back and they can actually increase production (remember Saudi invasion of Yemen is in a ceasefire state and not ended).
There is a good chance that the next US president will be able to fulfill #1 by ending the NATO-Russian war (possibly recognizing occupied parts as Russia) as there are enough signals coming out from US making me confident about that possibility. Trump will probably have an easier time doing that because of his radical decisions.
The problem will be #2 and #3.
~
In order to do that they'll have to increase the supply of oil in the global market.
To do that they need to (1) remove sanctions on Russia and let that oil flow again (2) convince Arab dictators to increase their production (3) end the wars in West Asia so that security comes back and they can actually increase production (remember Saudi invasion of Yemen is in a ceasefire state and not ended).
There is a good chance that the next US president will be able to fulfill #1 by ending the NATO-Russian war (possibly recognizing occupied parts as Russia) as there are enough signals coming out from US making me confident about that possibility. Trump will probably have an easier time doing that because of his radical decisions.
The problem will be #2 and #3.
~
I don't think that Ukraine has any intention to end the war any time soon unless they get their occupied providences back (they will also push for Crimea but there is a tiny chance that that part could be negotiated over).
EU too, are not willing to let a ceasefire happen until that is done, because the cold, calculating Putin would like to invade other european countries next after he is done with Ukraine, so they are unlikely to cooperate.
July 17, 2024, 11:28:13 PM
That shows the trade size and the trade deficit US has. None of it has anything to do with the discussion here!
Remember that when the Armed Forces of Yemen started their series of retaliations against their invaders, Trump was in office and the US regime didn't come to their rescue back then either. At that time not only Saudi infrastructure like Aramco went up in smokes but also US military bases in Arabia went under attack.
This is one of the reasons why the Saudi regime has been distancing itself from US (selling oil in Yuan, discontinuation of Petrodollar, cutting oil production to keep price up despite US demands, making deals with Russia and China, etc.). They finally realized that the US regime only wants to use them for their oil and care about nothing else and most importantly the US military is not even capable of protecting them as we saw it back then and we are seeing it today in the Red Sea how the US Navy is being easily attacked and incapacitated like USS Dwight D. Eisenhower that had to be brought back home due to the damages it took.
is the Saudi still aggressive toward the Yemeni government?
Yes they are. The blockade still continues and the cease fire terms have been violated multiple times by the Arab-US coalition.the Chinese government has already made agreed to be peaceful between Saudi and Iran. this will only put them in chaos again and this time, the Saudis are unsure if the US forces will come to the rescue because of the PetroUSD discontinuation.
As I always say the damage Trump did to America is yet to be realized by Americans. He isolated USA more than ever, he not only pushed away allies (NATO and others) but also pushed colonies and dependent dictatorships like Saudi family away. Remember that when the Armed Forces of Yemen started their series of retaliations against their invaders, Trump was in office and the US regime didn't come to their rescue back then either. At that time not only Saudi infrastructure like Aramco went up in smokes but also US military bases in Arabia went under attack.
This is one of the reasons why the Saudi regime has been distancing itself from US (selling oil in Yuan, discontinuation of Petrodollar, cutting oil production to keep price up despite US demands, making deals with Russia and China, etc.). They finally realized that the US regime only wants to use them for their oil and care about nothing else and most importantly the US military is not even capable of protecting them as we saw it back then and we are seeing it today in the Red Sea how the US Navy is being easily attacked and incapacitated like USS Dwight D. Eisenhower that had to be brought back home due to the damages it took.
July 17, 2024, 09:20:22 AM
is the Saudi still aggressive toward the Yemeni government?
the Chinese government has already made agreed to be peaceful between Saudi and Iran. this will only put them in chaos again and this time, the Saudis are unsure if the US forces will come to the rescue because of the PetroUSD discontinuation. Yemeni blowing up infrastructures means Iran being a Yemeni ally will in against Saudi.
Trump choosing Vance makes no sense but it must confirm being a president or a president to be doesn't mean they are in control. Vance is also a warmonger who thinks China is the real threat and putting the Middle East in chaos means a win for him against China.
the Chinese government has already made agreed to be peaceful between Saudi and Iran. this will only put them in chaos again and this time, the Saudis are unsure if the US forces will come to the rescue because of the PetroUSD discontinuation. Yemeni blowing up infrastructures means Iran being a Yemeni ally will in against Saudi.
Trump choosing Vance makes no sense but it must confirm being a president or a president to be doesn't mean they are in control. Vance is also a warmonger who thinks China is the real threat and putting the Middle East in chaos means a win for him against China.
July 17, 2024, 08:40:09 AM
When looking over data we need to get the data of most authentic type.
Unfortunately some website try to manipulate us.
The US has data at display:
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html
How unbiased that data is only the census knows. I believe it to be accurate.
Unfortunately some website try to manipulate us.
The US has data at display:
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html
How unbiased that data is only the census knows. I believe it to be accurate.
July 16, 2024, 07:48:51 AM
With a quick look at GDP charts you can see that Chinese economy has been rapidly growing. For reasons that nobody can understand the US regime sees that as a threat and at some point they declared war on China! It's more like a cold war and one of the battlefields is the economy.
The biggest and most radical step was taken by the Trump administration back in 2018-19 when he started a Tariff War with China. A war that Biden continued as well. But this war is like shooting yourself in the foot! It has imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans which is one of the largest tax increases in decades. Has cost them 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs and about $40 billion reduced GDP.
But so far the Europeans hadn't really follow this war (nor did anybody else). So it remained a US thing and nobody really cared elsewhere.
But things are changing.
The US regime is forcing Europeans to follow and the decision makers in Europe that apparently lack independence, seem to be getting on board. So it will stop being a local thing in US.
On top of that Trump is talking about a massive increase in Tariffs by throwing out the idea of 60% increase. According to the article below that radical move is predicted to "hike taxes by another $524 billion annually and shrink GDP by at least 0.8 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, and employment by 684,000 full-time equivalent jobs".
https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-biden-tariffs/
This will all cause inflation in both USA and Europe. We know how they battle inflation too, they increase interest rates.
(This could hurt bitcoin rise as well)
Above this line is what everyone else is saying as well. Here I want to explore some more possibilities, and just think out loud a little.
Another way they've always used to control inflation is to bring down energy prices (remember Petrodollar).
In order to do that they'll have to increase the supply of oil in the global market.
To do that they need to (1) remove sanctions on Russia and let that oil flow again (2) convince Arab dictators to increase their production (3) end the wars in West Asia so that security comes back and they can actually increase production (remember Saudi invasion of Yemen is in a ceasefire state and not ended).
There is a good chance that the next US president will be able to fulfill #1 by ending the NATO-Russian war (possibly recognizing occupied parts as Russia) as there are enough signals coming out from US making me confident about that possibility. Trump will probably have an easier time doing that because of his radical decisions.
The problem will be #2 and #3.
If Trump wins, his radical cabinet will not allow him to end any wars in West Asia specially the genocide that Israel is committing in Palestine. His recent choice of VP, the US senator James D. Vance who is a radical evangelist (very close to Zionism) and a big advocate for supporting terrorists and the ongoing genocide, is a clear indication of that. His previous cabinet was also filled with such radicals and warmongers.
(#2) Saudis are pro-Trump but the world has changed since last time he was in office. These Arab dictators have already applied to join BRICS, have refused to extend the Petrodollar agreement, have been selling oil using Yuan, etc. Convincing them again is not going to be easy in the New World Order specially since the killer of the Washington Post journalist now demands a lot of things from F35s all the way to nuclear facilities from United States regime!
(#3) Here is where things get complicated. I mentioned Yemen above as one of the cases that I think is the most significant.
Yemen is like Ukraine (an invaded country) except that this invasion has been going on for a long time and today Yemen has capabilities that Ukraine can not dream of having (NATO either doesn't have those capabilities or don't give it to Ukraine). That war hasn't ended yet, it is in "suspense" or in other words in a cease-fire that the Arab coalition regularly breaks.
In recent weeks Yemeni officials announced that if the Saudi aggression doesn't end they'll start the policy of what I can call "an eye for an eye". Long story short we could start seeing Saudi infrastructure go up in smokes again (like the oil giant Aramco). The Yemeni government has already handed over the file to the military. That shoots the oil price up!
P.S. Keep in mind that China will retaliate as well which requires a separate topic to discuss the effects of that.
The biggest and most radical step was taken by the Trump administration back in 2018-19 when he started a Tariff War with China. A war that Biden continued as well. But this war is like shooting yourself in the foot! It has imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans which is one of the largest tax increases in decades. Has cost them 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs and about $40 billion reduced GDP.
But so far the Europeans hadn't really follow this war (nor did anybody else). So it remained a US thing and nobody really cared elsewhere.
But things are changing.
The US regime is forcing Europeans to follow and the decision makers in Europe that apparently lack independence, seem to be getting on board. So it will stop being a local thing in US.
On top of that Trump is talking about a massive increase in Tariffs by throwing out the idea of 60% increase. According to the article below that radical move is predicted to "hike taxes by another $524 billion annually and shrink GDP by at least 0.8 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, and employment by 684,000 full-time equivalent jobs".
https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-biden-tariffs/
This will all cause inflation in both USA and Europe. We know how they battle inflation too, they increase interest rates.
(This could hurt bitcoin rise as well)
Above this line is what everyone else is saying as well. Here I want to explore some more possibilities, and just think out loud a little.
Another way they've always used to control inflation is to bring down energy prices (remember Petrodollar).
In order to do that they'll have to increase the supply of oil in the global market.
To do that they need to (1) remove sanctions on Russia and let that oil flow again (2) convince Arab dictators to increase their production (3) end the wars in West Asia so that security comes back and they can actually increase production (remember Saudi invasion of Yemen is in a ceasefire state and not ended).
There is a good chance that the next US president will be able to fulfill #1 by ending the NATO-Russian war (possibly recognizing occupied parts as Russia) as there are enough signals coming out from US making me confident about that possibility. Trump will probably have an easier time doing that because of his radical decisions.
The problem will be #2 and #3.
If Trump wins, his radical cabinet will not allow him to end any wars in West Asia specially the genocide that Israel is committing in Palestine. His recent choice of VP, the US senator James D. Vance who is a radical evangelist (very close to Zionism) and a big advocate for supporting terrorists and the ongoing genocide, is a clear indication of that. His previous cabinet was also filled with such radicals and warmongers.
(#2) Saudis are pro-Trump but the world has changed since last time he was in office. These Arab dictators have already applied to join BRICS, have refused to extend the Petrodollar agreement, have been selling oil using Yuan, etc. Convincing them again is not going to be easy in the New World Order specially since the killer of the Washington Post journalist now demands a lot of things from F35s all the way to nuclear facilities from United States regime!
(#3) Here is where things get complicated. I mentioned Yemen above as one of the cases that I think is the most significant.
Yemen is like Ukraine (an invaded country) except that this invasion has been going on for a long time and today Yemen has capabilities that Ukraine can not dream of having (NATO either doesn't have those capabilities or don't give it to Ukraine). That war hasn't ended yet, it is in "suspense" or in other words in a cease-fire that the Arab coalition regularly breaks.
In recent weeks Yemeni officials announced that if the Saudi aggression doesn't end they'll start the policy of what I can call "an eye for an eye". Long story short we could start seeing Saudi infrastructure go up in smokes again (like the oil giant Aramco). The Yemeni government has already handed over the file to the military. That shoots the oil price up!
- So when the US regime goes ahead with the Tariff War hoping they can reduce energy prices to control inflation, things may not go according to plan and we end up seeing another energy crisis.
- It will become even worse when Europe joins in the Tariff War.
- It will become a lot worse if radicals win in US upcoming election and with people like Vance as VP we could even see a regional war in West Asia which would shoot up energy prices even more
- Many are speculating that Zionists are postponing the war on Lebanon to after Trump wins. The only way they can do that is with the direct help of US military. But the moment US gets directly involved, all US bases in two dozen countries go under heavy attacks. Many of these countries are energy exports like Qatar (major gas exports) and Saudi usurped Arabia (major oil exporter). You can already guess the effects of that on energy prices.
P.S. Keep in mind that China will retaliate as well which requires a separate topic to discuss the effects of that.
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