US economy will continue to recover - Powell

bryant.coleman

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Quote from: jaysabi on October 04, 2020, 12:57:13 AM

If the US dollar is to retain any type of value integrity, this can't go on forever. It's been decades since the US ran a budget surplus which decreased the deficit at all, and it was short lived and possibly only a fluke as tax receipts swelled in conjunction with the dot com bubble. The US currently takes for granted that ability to sell bonds to finance the debt, but the world's appetite for this bonds will eventually wane as it looks increasingly unlikely that the US is even able to balance the budget, let alone pay down the debt.

I don't think that the demand for treasury bonds from the United States is going down. On the other hand, the interest in them seems to be going up. Average Yield for a 10-year bond is somewhere around 2% right now, and it is declining with every passing year. If the demand is low, then the interest rate should be going up. I agree that having consecutive budget deficits are not good for the economy. But tell me one thing. Among all the UN members, how many countries are having surplus budgets right now? Even countries such as Saudi Arabia are having huge budget deficits.

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on September 27, 2020, 07:01:09 AM

Quote from: michellee on September 26, 2020, 10:51:07 PM

As a big country, the US economy will continue to recover. However, it will not happen quickly because the government needs to clarify first what they prioritize to recover. Not just the US, the other countries will also do the same, and whether it is developed countries or big countries, the process is still running. The recovery process will still run, no matter if the election will coming in November, and no matter who is in charge, they need to continue the recovery.

The advantage with US is that they can borrow huge amounts of money at near-zero interest rates. Now this is some advantage that the other nations can't count on. In the US they already had the first round of economic stimulus. The impact was visible in the economy, as the employment rate grew (although not to the level that they had prior to the pandemic). But a full economic recovery may not be possible until the virus is completely eradicated. Even now, anywhere from 700 to 1,200 new deaths are being reported every day from the United States.

If the US dollar is to retain any type of value integrity, this can't go on forever. It's been decades since the US ran a budget surplus which decreased the deficit at all, and it was short lived and possibly only a fluke as tax receipts swelled in conjunction with the dot com bubble. The US currently takes for granted that ability to sell bonds to finance the debt, but the world's appetite for this bonds will eventually wane as it looks increasingly unlikely that the US is even able to balance the budget, let alone pay down the debt.

CODE200

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Quote from: Juggy777 on August 27, 2020, 12:17:49 PM

It’s pertinent to focus on his words which clearly mean that we may see some positive movements in the economy, but along with it we should brace ourselves for negative side effects too which shall last way longer than we all had initially hoped for.

Further there’s more bad news for the jobless people as he’s claimed that they’ll not be able to land jobs, and thus they will continue to remain jobless in the long run.

How it can be claimed that the US economy will continue to recover if the case is that even there are positive movements in the economy, they should still be ready and expect for the negative side effects which means that the recovery is still not stabilize and might not continue to come along due to the threat of the negative side effects associated with it.

Also, with regards to the unemployment that might last for a longer period of time, it is really a very sad thing for the jobless people not being able to work because there might still have no availability of job openings which must be resolved first to be able to come up getting into a continuous recovery because if not, people will remain reliant on what the government can give which will slower the process of recovery for people have no sources to spend for themselves.

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Quote from: exstasie on August 27, 2020, 01:39:22 PM

Quote

“I think we will get through this period, maybe with some starts and stops, with reasonable growth but ultimately we’re looking at…a couple of years of relatively high unemployment,” Powell said in a question-and-answer session after his Jackson Hole remarks.

“The part of the economy which involves getting people together, and feeding them — flying them around the country, having them sleep in hotels and entertaining them— that part of the economy will find it very difficult to recover. That is a lot of workers. That is millions of people whose are really going to struggle to find work,” Powell said.

Realistic assessment, and what I've been expecting for a while. Stagnant job growth, a continued transition from full-time employment to 1099 workers where there is growth, and associated rising levels of medically uninsured.......all while the stock market goes to the moon.

Those 3 points nailed it. The only thing is while job growth might negatively climb over the next year the market is blowing up which makes zero sense. Eventually the flood of (debt) funding into the US economy will have to be paid for and when the bills start coming in, the market is going to plunge.

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There is a good reason to point out that Obama had a huge increase mainly due to the fact that he received a presidency from Bush that literally had a crash, 2008 was the year Obama became president and he took over the white house when all the wall street and everything else was crashing affecting not only USA economy but all around world economy because all the investments overseas was withdrawn as quickly as possible leaving all the markets dry.

So, he was a bit responsible about it because he didn't do anything to cut down from other parts of government to recover that, but he also wasn't the cause, not sure if not being the answer to a problem you didn't created is a good thing but at least it is good to not be the reason for it as well. Famously republicans are worse with economy as always but I am sure that will continue with democrats as well for foreseeable future since it is not recoverable right now.

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on September 28, 2020, 12:10:20 AM

Quote from: michellee on September 27, 2020, 11:15:18 PM

Right. We will see what will happen with that. But I am not sure if that number will decrease in a short time. Instead of reducing the debt, the US can make its debt bigger in this pandemic. I am just worried about their people who can not survive if the pandemic continues until the next year. The next candidate will have difficult work to make the situations better.

Trump has sanctioned hundreds of billions of USD worth of handouts and huge stimulus packages, to strengthen the economy during the recent months. As a result, the federal debt grew larger. But at the same time, these measures helped a lot of people who lost their jobs during the pandemic. But the question is for how long this situation can go on. Already 6 months have passed and there is no sign of any slowdown in the spread of the infections.

If people can follow the protocols and always take care of themselves, even if the pandemic is not over yet, the government can reduce the number of infections. But people do not follow the rule, and they seem to act as what they want without they think. It is hard learning for the US as a big country, but the US is not alone because other countries face the same problem. And if people realize how important their lives and other people's lives, we can survive until the pandemic is over.

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: michellee on September 27, 2020, 07:24:27 AM

Even if the US can borrow huge amounts of money, that will not be the solution to prevent the crisis. I think the US government still figure out how to stimulate the economy to grow as before. The US's impact happens to all countries, and besides searching for the way to solve the economic crises, the government is trying to work hard to prevent the new case. It still needs time to recovery everything, including the economy, even if the vaccine is found. I think that the US will use tight regulations in any sector to prevent the situation from getting worst.

No immediate solution is available as of now. The US seems to be suffering from a double whammy. First of all, they have the largest number of infections in the world (even higher than Brazil and India, and that too by a distance). And secondly, the fatality rate in the US is much higher than what they have in countries such as India and Pakistan. On top of that, things get complicated there because there is a very vocal section of the population which refuses to adhere to social distancing and other precautionary measures.

bryant.coleman

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Quote from: michellee on September 27, 2020, 11:15:18 PM

Right. We will see what will happen with that. But I am not sure if that number will decrease in a short time. Instead of reducing the debt, the US can make its debt bigger in this pandemic. I am just worried about their people who can not survive if the pandemic continues until the next year. The next candidate will have difficult work to make the situations better.

Trump has sanctioned hundreds of billions of USD worth of handouts and huge stimulus packages, to strengthen the economy during the recent months. As a result, the federal debt grew larger. But at the same time, these measures helped a lot of people who lost their jobs during the pandemic. But the question is for how long this situation can go on. Already 6 months have passed and there is no sign of any slowdown in the spread of the infections.

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on September 27, 2020, 08:47:23 AM

Quote from: michellee on September 27, 2020, 07:24:27 AM

Even if the US can borrow huge amounts of money, that will not be the solution to prevent the crisis. I think the US government still figure out how to stimulate the economy to grow as before. The US's impact happens to all countries, and besides searching for the way to solve the economic crises, the government is trying to work hard to prevent the new case. It still needs time to recovery everything, including the economy, even if the vaccine is found. I think that the US will use tight regulations in any sector to prevent the situation from getting worst.

A ballooning federal debt can benefit none. It is true that the US can borrow money with relative ease, but in the end this is not a viable solution. Trump came to power in 2016, promising not to increase the federal debt. He was unable to keep that promise. It looks as if he has done even worse than Obama. Till now, Trump has added close to $4 trillion as federal debt.

Right. We will see what will happen with that. But I am not sure if that number will decrease in a short time. Instead of reducing the debt, the US can make its debt bigger in this pandemic. I am just worried about their people who can not survive if the pandemic continues until the next year. The next candidate will have difficult work to make the situations better.

bryant.coleman

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Quote from: michellee on September 27, 2020, 07:24:27 AM

Even if the US can borrow huge amounts of money, that will not be the solution to prevent the crisis. I think the US government still figure out how to stimulate the economy to grow as before. The US's impact happens to all countries, and besides searching for the way to solve the economic crises, the government is trying to work hard to prevent the new case. It still needs time to recovery everything, including the economy, even if the vaccine is found. I think that the US will use tight regulations in any sector to prevent the situation from getting worst.

A ballooning federal debt can benefit none. It is true that the US can borrow money with relative ease, but in the end this is not a viable solution. Trump came to power in 2016, promising not to increase the federal debt. He was unable to keep that promise. It looks as if he has done even worse than Obama. Till now, Trump has added close to $4 trillion as federal debt.

michellee

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on September 27, 2020, 07:01:09 AM

Quote from: michellee on September 26, 2020, 10:51:07 PM

As a big country, the US economy will continue to recover. However, it will not happen quickly because the government needs to clarify first what they prioritize to recover. Not just the US, the other countries will also do the same, and whether it is developed countries or big countries, the process is still running. The recovery process will still run, no matter if the election will coming in November, and no matter who is in charge, they need to continue the recovery.

The advantage with US is that they can borrow huge amounts of money at near-zero interest rates. Now this is some advantage that the other nations can't count on. In the US they already had the first round of economic stimulus. The impact was visible in the economy, as the employment rate grew (although not to the level that they had prior to the pandemic). But a full economic recovery may not be possible until the virus is completely eradicated. Even now, anywhere from 700 to 1,200 new deaths are being reported every day from the United States.

Even if the US can borrow huge amounts of money, that will not be the solution to prevent the crisis. I think the US government still figure out how to stimulate the economy to grow as before. The US's impact happens to all countries, and besides searching for the way to solve the economic crises, the government is trying to work hard to prevent the new case. It still needs time to recovery everything, including the economy, even if the vaccine is found. I think that the US will use tight regulations in any sector to prevent the situation from getting worst.

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: michellee on September 26, 2020, 10:51:07 PM

As a big country, the US economy will continue to recover. However, it will not happen quickly because the government needs to clarify first what they prioritize to recover. Not just the US, the other countries will also do the same, and whether it is developed countries or big countries, the process is still running. The recovery process will still run, no matter if the election will coming in November, and no matter who is in charge, they need to continue the recovery.

The advantage with US is that they can borrow huge amounts of money at near-zero interest rates. Now this is some advantage that the other nations can't count on. In the US they already had the first round of economic stimulus. The impact was visible in the economy, as the employment rate grew (although not to the level that they had prior to the pandemic). But a full economic recovery may not be possible until the virus is completely eradicated. Even now, anywhere from 700 to 1,200 new deaths are being reported every day from the United States.

Dorodha

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As the United States is a developed country they are taking various steps to improve their country's economy. There is a lot of focus on activities after the lockdown is over allocating more money to different sectors but it is often seen that it takes a long time for the economy to return to growth after a deep recession. Recovery can be prolonged if the virus takes longer to control.

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As a big country, the US economy will continue to recover. However, it will not happen quickly because the government needs to clarify first what they prioritize to recover. Not just the US, the other countries will also do the same, and whether it is developed countries or big countries, the process is still running. The recovery process will still run, no matter if the election will coming in November, and no matter who is in charge, they need to continue the recovery.

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Quote from: abhiseshakana on September 26, 2020, 11:53:59 AM

Quote from: Blackrain13 on September 26, 2020, 09:30:47 AM

US are facing the economic problem seriously and find a way to provide a better solution for this, that's why they recover fast from what covid 19 pandemic brought to their country. Hoping that other country can also recover fast even covid patients is still a lot.

According to Keynes, a recession is usually caused by an event, including a disaster, that brings the economy out of its equilibrium point. This disaster caused fear both to producers and consumers. As a result, consumers reduce their consumption activities, so that automatically, producers respond by reducing production activities. This reduction in turn leads to layoffs.

Even though the US economy is currently in a recession, it does not mean that it is very bad for the US, it is precisely the recession that occurred in the US affecting other countries that depend on the dollar and has bad consequences for the national economies of many countries. The potential for negative effects from the US recession to other countries in the world is because the US is an important export destination, the US is a source of investment and the US is the price maker for the majority of world commodities.

Well in this case, the recession is artificially imposed in that the government is the one that shut things down in an attempt to control the spread of the virus. It may have happened without government intervention as the virus spread and people began to fear contracting it and therefore voluntarily curtail economic activity, but I doubt it would have been as severe as mandated shutdowns. Because it's artificially imposed, there's hope for a faster recovery than if it was an organic recession.

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Quote from: Blackrain13 on September 26, 2020, 09:30:47 AM

US are facing the economic problem seriously and find a way to provide a better solution for this, that's why they recover fast from what covid 19 pandemic brought to their country. Hoping that other country can also recover fast even covid patients is still a lot.

According to Keynes, a recession is usually caused by an event, including a disaster, that brings the economy out of its equilibrium point. This disaster caused fear both to producers and consumers. As a result, consumers reduce their consumption activities, so that automatically, producers respond by reducing production activities. This reduction in turn leads to layoffs.

Even though the US economy is currently in a recession, it does not mean that it is very bad for the US, it is precisely the recession that occurred in the US affecting other countries that depend on the dollar and has bad consequences for the national economies of many countries. The potential for negative effects from the US recession to other countries in the world is because the US is an important export destination, the US is a source of investment and the US is the price maker for the majority of world commodities.

Blackrain13

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US are facing the economic problem seriously and find a way to provide a better solution for this, that's why they recover fast from what covid 19 pandemic brought to their country. Hoping that other country can also recover fast even covid patients is still a lot.

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US don't joke with their economy, that is why they are seriously working to make such they recover all they have loss during this covid-19 in their country.
The reason why their governmen will continue to recover all they have loss during the pandemic, is because of the re-election that is coming up soon, so that opposition party will not use economy challengies to campaign against the president.
I think with the strategies US has fixed in every conner of the economic, show that they are improving in the areas of economy.

noorammak

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The US economy will recover soon, FED will continue to lower interest rates at low levels until 2023. This means that the US has time to make a breakthrough in the recovery process.
I think it will be time to wait until the epidemic stabilizes and the businesses break away from China before operating normally again.

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US has the most powerful economy that's we need not wonder if they will continue to recover from this economic downfall. Also it is not just the first time that the economy of US placed in a serious economic downturn but they always recover.

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