Topic: Valuations of Mining Shares on Bitfunder (Read 3634 times)
I would like to see this analysis updated.
can anyone add an analysis about this to the list please?
IceDrill.ASIC
IceDrill.ASIC
with 45000 shares outstanding that's .00044444 /share dividend per day - if it only costs 0.04/share that's a break even in < 90 days and gravy there after... reasonable, right?
I doubt difficulty will stop increasing to ensure that you get gravy.
Looks like some action over in SNQ.CoinI today -- somebody(s) dumped out of a descent size chunk ...
The fun thing about trading these issues is one or two trades can have a big impact on price -
I don't understand the low price, though... from the math - looks like this one is available on the cheap assuming KNC delivers Day1 -
the Jupiters that make up this GB / security will be hosted at KNC and should be mining fairly quickly - so one could expect dividends on day 2...
per the earnings calculators I've seen... even assuming difficulty skyrockets to 100M by October @ a minimum of 4TH/s hashing power the Jupiters should still spit out 20+ BTC/day
with 45000 shares outstanding that's .00044444 /share dividend per day - if it only costs 0.04/share that's a break even in < 90 days and gravy there after... reasonable, right?
as compared to the other companies that are currently mining - the discount here is staggering.
The fun thing about trading these issues is one or two trades can have a big impact on price -
I don't understand the low price, though... from the math - looks like this one is available on the cheap assuming KNC delivers Day1 -
the Jupiters that make up this GB / security will be hosted at KNC and should be mining fairly quickly - so one could expect dividends on day 2...
per the earnings calculators I've seen... even assuming difficulty skyrockets to 100M by October @ a minimum of 4TH/s hashing power the Jupiters should still spit out 20+ BTC/day
with 45000 shares outstanding that's .00044444 /share dividend per day - if it only costs 0.04/share that's a break even in < 90 days and gravy there after... reasonable, right?
as compared to the other companies that are currently mining - the discount here is staggering.
I appreciate what you did to put this all together! I know you are completely guessing, and these PMBs are crazy bad investments by all "normal" investment logic - so this effort is worthwhile when you consider how someone basis-less the investments are.
Your Nasty math is a bit off though.
The 1.105 TH/s you describe is actually split amongst 19732 seats.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/nastyfans-the-bitcoin-enthusiast-fan-club-est-2012-86854
1000 of those seats are sold as a pass-through on bitfunder:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/NastyFans
at a rate of 100 shares per seat.
So there are two prices per seat, the pass-through is ~.5 BTC/seat and through nastyfans.org at ~.35 BTC/seat
The calculation is thus:
total bitfunder shares = 100,000 = 0.53 MH/s per share (1.05TH/s /19732/100)
outstanding = 10000
price = 0.00505051
public market cap = 50.51 BTC ~ USD $5050
price per GH = 9.5BTC
total nastyfans.org seats = 19732 = 53 MH/s per seat
oustanding = 19732
price = 0.35
market cap = ~8k BTC = $800,000
price per GH = 6.5
also, NastyFans is out of IPO (and has been for a while). Price is set entirely by the market. They are also one of the few (only?) mining securities that is actually mining.
Great stuff -- appreciate the clarification as I was WAY off! BIG difference as you point out...
Thanks for keeping me honest.
For comparison: PMBs at BTC-TC:
Today's update.
DMS.MINING is cheaper than running the ASICMINER USB...
DMS.MINING is cheaper than running the ASICMINER USB...
Nasty Fans
Assets = 300GH/s + 5GH/s (maybe) / currently mining + 800GH/s on order with BFL = 1.105 TH/s
total shares = 100,000 = 11 MH/s per share
outstanding = 10000
price = 0.00505051
public market cap = 50.51 BTC ~ USD $5050
price per GH = .45BTC
Assets = 300GH/s + 5GH/s (maybe) / currently mining + 800GH/s on order with BFL = 1.105 TH/s
total shares = 100,000 = 11 MH/s per share
outstanding = 10000
price = 0.00505051
public market cap = 50.51 BTC ~ USD $5050
price per GH = .45BTC
I appreciate what you did to put this all together! I know you are completely guessing, and these PMBs are crazy bad investments by all "normal" investment logic - so this effort is worthwhile when you consider how someone basis-less the investments are.
Your Nasty math is a bit off though.
The 1.105 TH/s you describe is actually split amongst 19732 seats.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/nastyfans-the-bitcoin-enthusiast-fan-club-est-2012-86854
1000 of those seats are sold as a pass-through on bitfunder:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/NastyFans
at a rate of 100 shares per seat.
So there are two prices per seat, the pass-through is ~.5 BTC/seat and through nastyfans.org at ~.35 BTC/seat
The calculation is thus:
total bitfunder shares = 100,000 = 0.53 MH/s per share (1.05TH/s /19732/100)
outstanding = 10000
price = 0.00505051
public market cap = 50.51 BTC ~ USD $5050
price per GH = 9.5BTC
total nastyfans.org seats = 19732 = 53 MH/s per seat
oustanding = 19732
price = 0.35
market cap = ~8k BTC = $800,000
price per GH = 6.5
also, NastyFans is out of IPO (and has been for a while). Price is set entirely by the market. They are also one of the few (only?) mining securities that is actually mining.
Interesting. Looks like LabRat should be included in DCX, as soon as I get the Bitfunder API figured out.
@EskimoBob Thx for the reference
@EskimoBob Thx for the reference
Any chance you can get the
1) Shareholders equity
2) Complete list of assets with cost (in USD and BTC)
3) How amortization (depreciation) is calculated
4) Monthly expenses
Then we can start compiling a real picture or something close to it.
Question is, how are you going to convince those guys to actually publish any meaningful numbers.
Maybe you can compile a list with simple questions?
Maybe team up with Smidge, he got a cool little index project going (see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=267351.0;topicseen).
1) Shareholders equity
2) Complete list of assets with cost (in USD and BTC)
3) How amortization (depreciation) is calculated
4) Monthly expenses
Then we can start compiling a real picture or something close to it.
Question is, how are you going to convince those guys to actually publish any meaningful numbers.
Maybe you can compile a list with simple questions?
Maybe team up with Smidge, he got a cool little index project going (see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=267351.0;topicseen).
I hear you... obviously no SEC involved here, no 3rd party auditors, no fiduciary responsibility to shareholders even, so all we really have is how the organizer choose to describe their entity, what they choose to list as assets, we can speculate what the stated hashing power should earn by mining, and we'll know what they payout in the form of dividends - so can roughly determine how much the house keeps and/or pays in expenses each month. P/E, dividend yield, and other stats can certainly be calculated...
Keep the ideas coming.
Any chance you can get the
1) Shareholders equity
2) Complete list of assets with cost (in USD and BTC)
3) How amortization (depreciation) is calculated
4) Monthly expenses
Then we can start compiling a real picture or something close to it.
Question is, how are you going to convince those guys to actually publish any meaningful numbers.
Maybe you can compile a list with simple questions?
Maybe team up with Smidge, he got a cool little index project going (see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=267351.0;topicseen).
1) Shareholders equity
2) Complete list of assets with cost (in USD and BTC)
3) How amortization (depreciation) is calculated
4) Monthly expenses
Then we can start compiling a real picture or something close to it.
Question is, how are you going to convince those guys to actually publish any meaningful numbers.
Maybe you can compile a list with simple questions?
Maybe team up with Smidge, he got a cool little index project going (see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=267351.0;topicseen).
Finally, something that is hashing (albeit barely) and paying dividends:
Fenix
Assets = 2 Avalon Asic Miners - currently hashing at 140 GH/s
total shares = 24000 or 5.8 MH/s per share
outstanding = 22950
recent price = 0.025
market cap = 575 BTC ~ USD $58,000
price per GH = 4.31 BTC
this thing is actually paid its first dividends of ฿0.00060255 /share - assuming they stick to their 70% payout of income as dividend twice a week of the same amount - which likely will decrease as time goes on with ever increasing difficuly (46M next week) - but assume it remains constant, it'll take 42 payments or 21 weeks to see a return on investment.
PE ratio = 0.34
Dividend Yield = 2.5%
so people are willing to pay ฿4.31 for the equivalent 1 GH/s of hashing power for a best case 2.5% dividend yield
man if we apply the same math to the securities above when they start paying dividends with 4+ TH/s of hashing power vs 0.14 TH/s of Fenix, there should be some very happy shareholders in a couple months.
We'll just have to wait until addiction/soniq receive their machine, starts hashing and giving out dividends, then we'll know from there Fenix
Assets = 2 Avalon Asic Miners - currently hashing at 140 GH/s
total shares = 24000 or 5.8 MH/s per share
outstanding = 22950
recent price = 0.025
market cap = 575 BTC ~ USD $58,000
price per GH = 4.31 BTC
this thing is actually paid its first dividends of ฿0.00060255 /share - assuming they stick to their 70% payout of income as dividend twice a week of the same amount - which likely will decrease as time goes on with ever increasing difficuly (46M next week) - but assume it remains constant, it'll take 42 payments or 21 weeks to see a return on investment.
PE ratio = 0.34
Dividend Yield = 2.5%
so people are willing to pay ฿4.31 for the equivalent 1 GH/s of hashing power for a best case 2.5% dividend yield
man if we apply the same math to the securities above when they start paying dividends with 4+ TH/s of hashing power vs 0.14 TH/s of Fenix, there should be some very happy shareholders in a couple months.
Finally, something that is hashing (albeit barely) and paying dividends:
Fenix
Assets = 2 Avalon Asic Miners - currently hashing at 140 GH/s
total shares = 24000 or 5.8 MH/s per share
outstanding = 22950
recent price = 0.025
market cap = 575 BTC ~ USD $58,000
price per GH = 4.31 BTC
this thing is actually paid its first dividends of ฿0.00060255 /share - assuming they stick to their 70% payout of income as dividend twice a week of the same amount - which likely will decrease as time goes on with ever increasing difficuly (46M next week) - but assume it remains constant, it'll take 42 payments or 21 weeks to see a return on investment.
PE ratio = 0.34
Dividend Yield = 2.5%
so people are willing to pay ฿4.31 for the equivalent 1 GH/s of hashing power for a best case 2.5% dividend yield
man if we apply the same math to the securities above when they start paying dividends with 4+ TH/s of hashing power vs 0.14 TH/s of Fenix, there should be some very happy shareholders in a couple months.
Fenix
Assets = 2 Avalon Asic Miners - currently hashing at 140 GH/s
total shares = 24000 or 5.8 MH/s per share
outstanding = 22950
recent price = 0.025
market cap = 575 BTC ~ USD $58,000
price per GH = 4.31 BTC
this thing is actually paid its first dividends of ฿0.00060255 /share - assuming they stick to their 70% payout of income as dividend twice a week of the same amount - which likely will decrease as time goes on with ever increasing difficuly (46M next week) - but assume it remains constant, it'll take 42 payments or 21 weeks to see a return on investment.
PE ratio = 0.34
Dividend Yield = 2.5%
so people are willing to pay ฿4.31 for the equivalent 1 GH/s of hashing power for a best case 2.5% dividend yield
man if we apply the same math to the securities above when they start paying dividends with 4+ TH/s of hashing power vs 0.14 TH/s of Fenix, there should be some very happy shareholders in a couple months.
Lubah, I see no potential in mining bond if they are structured they way they are now.
Here is why: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2555945
If we are talking about Co manufacturing/selling the chips/rigs, this is different story. But still, valuating a Co from coffee grounds at bottom of the cup is waste of time.
I hope that more people start to understand this and put pressure on the issuers and exchanges.
Cheers and enjoy the guessing game.
Agree with respect to the bond type issues like labrat...
Addiction and Soniq's two seem more like actual partnerships where each share holder actually has ownership of the underlying assets listed/purchased - From what I can tell, these are a result of groupbuys that turned their shares/ownership into public shares for ease of dividend disbursement and the added liquidity a public marketplace like bitfunder offers to those who want to cash out.
Soniq.Coinsortium I & II in particular state that once mining is no longer 'profitable', either sell the units and dole out the proceeds (shareholder's equity) as further dividends and then dissolve the company or potentially reinvest a portion of the shareholders dividends into gen 2, 3, 4 ASIC hardware and stay current worthy of maintaining ongoing dividend payments .
These make a little more sense to me as far as an investment vs just making a loan / buying a bond.
appreciate your contribution.
How do you evaluate a company if you have no financial statements?
All you have is a "list" of equipment, if that. You have no idea what the expenses etc. are. What about the shareholders equity they started off? How was it spent? What is left of it? What did they pay for the equipment, power and so on on and on.
If you look at this http://sdrv.ms/16njy51 (from: http://www.reddit.com/user/sdmented) most of the mining Co's never make back the money invested.
Looks like those "first generation" ASIC's will be obsolete by the end of this year.
All you have is a "list" of equipment, if that. You have no idea what the expenses etc. are. What about the shareholders equity they started off? How was it spent? What is left of it? What did they pay for the equipment, power and so on on and on.
If you look at this http://sdrv.ms/16njy51 (from: http://www.reddit.com/user/sdmented) most of the mining Co's never make back the money invested.
Looks like those "first generation" ASIC's will be obsolete by the end of this year.
Exactly the point of the thread... all we have is what is listed on bitfunder. given the list of assets - we can surmise based on predicted hashing power and difficulty what the income will be - as your spreadsheet so nicely lays out.
From the bitfunder descriptions of the few 'companies' I've listed, seems like all income minus expenses will be distributed as dividend - which as you point out, without financial statement is anybody's guess...
Nobody's going to make a killing on these first gen asic miners but they will likely make some sort of return - so if even if it yields only 1 BTC per share by year's end, how much would you pay now for that potential?
Lubah, I see no potential in mining bond if they are structured they way they are now.
Here is why: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2555945
If we are talking about Co manufacturing/selling the chips/rigs, this is different story. But still, valuating a Co from coffee grounds at bottom of the cup is waste of time.
I hope that more people start to understand this and put pressure on the issuers and exchanges.
Cheers and enjoy the guessing game.
How do you evaluate a company if you have no financial statements?
All you have is a "list" of equipment, if that. You have no idea what the expenses etc. are. What about the shareholders equity they started off? How was it spent? What is left of it? What did they pay for the equipment, power and so on on and on.
If you look at this http://sdrv.ms/16njy51 (from: http://www.reddit.com/user/sdmented) most of the mining Co's never make back the money invested.
Looks like those "first generation" ASIC's will be obsolete by the end of this year.
All you have is a "list" of equipment, if that. You have no idea what the expenses etc. are. What about the shareholders equity they started off? How was it spent? What is left of it? What did they pay for the equipment, power and so on on and on.
If you look at this http://sdrv.ms/16njy51 (from: http://www.reddit.com/user/sdmented) most of the mining Co's never make back the money invested.
Looks like those "first generation" ASIC's will be obsolete by the end of this year.
Exactly the point of the thread... all we have is what is listed on bitfunder. given the list of assets - we can surmise based on predicted hashing power and difficulty what the income will be - as your spreadsheet so nicely lays out.
From the bitfunder descriptions of the few 'companies' I've listed, seems like all income minus expenses will be distributed as dividend - which as you point out, without financial statement is anybody's guess...
Nobody's going to make a killing on these first gen asic miners but they will likely make some sort of return - so if even if it yields only 1 BTC per share by year's end, how much would you pay now for that potential?
How do you evaluate a company if you have no financial statements?
All you have is a "list" of equipment, if that. You have no idea what the expenses etc. are. What about the shareholders equity they started off? How was it spent? What is left of it? What did they pay for the equipment, power and so on on and on.
If you look at this http://sdrv.ms/16njy51 (from: http://www.reddit.com/user/sdmented) most of the mining Co's never make back the money invested.
Looks like those "first generation" ASIC's will be obsolete by the end of this year.
All you have is a "list" of equipment, if that. You have no idea what the expenses etc. are. What about the shareholders equity they started off? How was it spent? What is left of it? What did they pay for the equipment, power and so on on and on.
If you look at this http://sdrv.ms/16njy51 (from: http://www.reddit.com/user/sdmented) most of the mining Co's never make back the money invested.
Looks like those "first generation" ASIC's will be obsolete by the end of this year.
Quote
if knc will not deliver in time, bfl will hold orders...
shares with knc, bfl preorders are risky, they are virtual.
erupters are real.
The old bird in the hand argument.. Fair enough, time will tell... Those with the guts to take the risk now at such low valuations will be laughing all the way to the bank in a month or two, should delivery occur.
Works for me.
Translation: I have ActiveMining shares, buy this so I can sell higher.
Even if he does, so what? The goal of the thread is to determine what a reasonable valuation should be. From the data, Soniq's consortium II looks to be cheapest at the moment as compared to its peers.
But, Addiction and SNQ.CoinI do seem cheap, as well. I for one would certainly expect to see a fairly quick ROI with any of these - assuming they start paying dividends in Sept/Oct. These three seem like 'no brainers'
People are paying 1BTC+ for a block erupter ... You'd need 3 to get 1Gh/s --- 3 Btc vs .38 btc per GH/s?
I'd venture to say, nearly all of these are CHEAP.
if knc will not deliver in time, bfl will hold orders...
shares with knc, bfl preorders are risky, they are virtual.
erupters are real.
Translation: I have ActiveMining shares, buy this so I can sell higher.
Even if he does, so what? The goal of the thread is to determine what a reasonable valuation should be. From the data, Soniq's consortium II looks to be cheapest at the moment as compared to its peers.
But, Addiction and SNQ.CoinI do seem cheap, as well. I for one would certainly expect to see a fairly quick ROI with any of these - assuming they start paying dividends in Sept/Oct. These three seem like 'no brainers'
People are paying 1BTC+ for a block erupter ... You'd need 3 to get 1Gh/s --- 3 Btc vs .38 btc per GH/s?
I'd venture to say, nearly all of these are CHEAP.
Might want to evaluate power costs of each asset too purely because KNC vs. Avalon is probably going to have a quickly diverting cost/profit base beyond a 3-6 month time horizon.
Thanks perl. Not a bad idea. If we see dividends getting eaten up by hosting, electrical, or even 'management' fees we'll definitely need to consider their effect on valuation.
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