As the Bitcoin economy grows, wealth creation will begin to occur within the system rather than primarily being brought in from external sources. That's almost certainly not what's going on here - it's probably more a lull in the face of several impending events (block reward halving, ASIC mining, etc). Volume from one exchange, even Gox, is no longer enough to reliably project moves.
Estimated Transaction Volume
Estimated Transaction Volume in USD
Topic: Volume in recent weeks has fallen off a cliff, what do you make of it? (Read 3062 times)
October 01, 2012, 11:59:57 PM
October 01, 2012, 12:40:41 PM
Heh maybe because it's Oct 1st? 
I think this is the reason too. Or beginning of the week. I used the 'weekly' time range.
I was going to mention this in my post. I don't know the definitive answer, but I think the chart uses a fixed week starting on Sunday. Someone might know for sure.
here's the 'daily' time period chart. What I was hoping to demonstrate is that recent volume (since mid-aug) is at or above the volumes from May to July when viewed in USD.
October 01, 2012, 12:39:38 PM
I think its because most of the big players are criminals and they are afraid to make any moves with the SEC investigations going on. The money launderers brought huge volume. They are laying low right now.
October 01, 2012, 12:39:11 PM
Heh maybe because it's Oct 1st?
October 01, 2012, 12:37:01 PM
I think posting the volume in USD is more appropriate.
I don't think the volume is down much, certainly not off a cliff. Just that the total amount of USD is not increasing (and may be down a little due to recent scams or the off-exchange hypothesis).
It seems your chart is showing now is the lowest volume in at least a year...I don't think the volume is down much, certainly not off a cliff. Just that the total amount of USD is not increasing (and may be down a little due to recent scams or the off-exchange hypothesis).
October 01, 2012, 12:28:36 PM
I think posting the volume in USD is more appropriate.
I don't think the volume is down much, certainly not off a cliff. Just that the total amount of USD is not increasing (and may be down a little due to recent scams or the off-exchange hypothesis).
I don't think the volume is down much, certainly not off a cliff. Just that the total amount of USD is not increasing (and may be down a little due to recent scams or the off-exchange hypothesis).
October 01, 2012, 12:06:42 PM
It seems, volume is picking up now.
October 01, 2012, 10:23:32 AM
The volume is frighteningly low. I've been on the edge of my seat, so to speak, the past few days.
October 01, 2012, 10:07:15 AM
The network has grown and stabilized, but that is boring to most people. We're in a lull. Where's all that vaporware people said they were working on? Where's the announcements from the alleged venture capitalists? If nothing else, we can look forward to another scam or theft to cause some volatility.
October 01, 2012, 09:34:50 AM
Kids have gone back to school and no longer have the time to play "fx trader". Just shows that the demographics of bitcoin users are <22 year old kids.
+1 on that.
if last year holds true, in some ways, there will be a steady decline once people have paid for all their asic gear, it gets delivered,
and want to take some money back from the bitcoin economy by selling steadily.
with the reward being cut in half this could possibly worsen the condition if the price does not go up by quite a large
percentage.
October 01, 2012, 12:43:44 AM
Kids have gone back to school and no longer have the time to play "fx trader". Just shows that the demographics of bitcoin users are <22 year old kids.
September 30, 2012, 08:54:47 PM
Who will sell me bitcoins for less then what the exchange will sell them to me for? I offer 9 usd per btc. Sound good? Why not?
Becuase u can sell them for more at an exchange.
Now why would i offer 14 usd per btc? I can buy for less at an exchange.
The exchange offers constant buy and asks which help determine what these eleet off exchange people buy and sell for in my mind.
Becuase u can sell them for more at an exchange.
Now why would i offer 14 usd per btc? I can buy for less at an exchange.
The exchange offers constant buy and asks which help determine what these eleet off exchange people buy and sell for in my mind.
The exchange is not selling them to you. They are facilitating a trade between you and another person.
I am typing on a tablet. I have no need to type out extra words. U kniw exactly what i meant.
Sorry for your typing problems. I'm happy to hear that you didn't actually believe the things you wrote.
Exchange order prices are usually accepted by independent dealers because exchanges are the most accurate and efficient means of price discovery, because they concentrate liquidity in one place. They also make arbitrage easier, meaning that errors in the orders listed on them can be corrected quicker.
And now we have done a full circle.
Ooohh who sets the price? The exchanges. And of course the people who use them but it is easier to say the exchanges.
Their salad days... Aint here. Not ever.
:-$
September 30, 2012, 08:43:18 PM
Who will sell me bitcoins for less then what the exchange will sell them to me for? I offer 9 usd per btc. Sound good? Why not?
Becuase u can sell them for more at an exchange.
Now why would i offer 14 usd per btc? I can buy for less at an exchange.
The exchange offers constant buy and asks which help determine what these eleet off exchange people buy and sell for in my mind.
Becuase u can sell them for more at an exchange.
Now why would i offer 14 usd per btc? I can buy for less at an exchange.
The exchange offers constant buy and asks which help determine what these eleet off exchange people buy and sell for in my mind.
The exchange is not selling them to you. They are facilitating a trade between you and another person.
I am typing on a tablet. I have no need to type out extra words. U kniw exactly what i meant.
Sorry for your typing problems. I'm happy to hear that you didn't actually believe the things you wrote.
Exchange order prices are usually accepted by independent dealers because exchanges are the most accurate and efficient means of price discovery, because they concentrate liquidity in one place. They also make arbitrage easier, meaning that errors in the orders listed on them can be corrected quicker.
September 30, 2012, 08:43:02 PM
Volume in recent weeks has fallen off a cliff, while price has went up, what do you make of it?
My theory is that there are not much people selling, holding the coins back to see what happens
after the halving of block reward. So for the people that want to get coins, they have to put up
increasingly high bids to get coins.
My theory is that there are not much people selling, holding the coins back to see what happens
after the halving of block reward. So for the people that want to get coins, they have to put up
increasingly high bids to get coins.
Is it because people got spooked when news of the SEC investigation was posted on here? Maybe they're afraid of how far the investigation could go, that other authorities could become involved, and that some of their activities with bitcoins could be exposed?
September 30, 2012, 08:16:55 PM
Who will sell me bitcoins for less then what the exchange will sell them to me for?
An off-exchange trader with no fees:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoins-direct-support-thread-87094
Exchanges are important because they provide speculators the means to trade quickly. Speculators are important because they add liquidity to the market. On the other hand, adding value to the market is part of the job of buy-and-holders, otherwise known as investors. I have no interest in the exchanges because I expect the value of bitcoin to rise and am not interested in risking my assets on still unproven platforms with high exit costs.
Seems to me he setup a one way exchange but "private"
He based his price on mtgox. He is nothing without a stable exchange to set the price. He would find a new source of buy and asks.
Otherwise i agree with you.
All i am saying is exchanges set the price for so many things it only makes sense btc will follow suit.
Nothing wrong with it.
September 30, 2012, 08:10:34 PM
Who will sell me bitcoins for less then what the exchange will sell them to me for? I offer 9 usd per btc. Sound good? Why not?
Becuase u can sell them for more at an exchange.
Now why would i offer 14 usd per btc? I can buy for less at an exchange.
The exchange offers constant buy and asks which help determine what these eleet off exchange people buy and sell for in my mind.
Becuase u can sell them for more at an exchange.
Now why would i offer 14 usd per btc? I can buy for less at an exchange.
The exchange offers constant buy and asks which help determine what these eleet off exchange people buy and sell for in my mind.
The exchange is not selling them to you. They are facilitating a trade between you and another person.
I am typing on a tablet. I have no need to type out extra words. U kniw exactly what i meant.
September 30, 2012, 07:41:20 PM
Who will sell me bitcoins for less then what the exchange will sell them to me for?
An off-exchange trader with no fees:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoins-direct-support-thread-87094
Exchanges are important because they provide speculators the means to trade quickly. Speculators are important because they add liquidity to the market. On the other hand, adding value to the market is part of the job of buy-and-holders, otherwise known as investors. I have no interest in the exchanges because I expect the value of bitcoin to rise and am not interested in risking my assets on still unproven platforms with high exit costs.
September 30, 2012, 07:26:33 PM
Who will sell me bitcoins for less then what the exchange will sell them to me for? I offer 9 usd per btc. Sound good? Why not?
Becuase u can sell them for more at an exchange.
Now why would i offer 14 usd per btc? I can buy for less at an exchange.
The exchange offers constant buy and asks which help determine what these eleet off exchange people buy and sell for in my mind.
Becuase u can sell them for more at an exchange.
Now why would i offer 14 usd per btc? I can buy for less at an exchange.
The exchange offers constant buy and asks which help determine what these eleet off exchange people buy and sell for in my mind.
The exchange is not selling them to you. They are facilitating a trade between you and another person.
September 30, 2012, 07:24:55 PM
It indicates that a lot off-exchange sales are happening. People have had time to form the beginnings of decentralized exchanges and trading agreements with each other so that bitcoins are going elsewhere for sale/trade instead of just exchanges. The salad days of the exchanges are winding down as they won't be the only game in town anymore. Banks will also be making it harder and harder for exchanges to operate as the Bitcoin network grows.
I'm long on bitcoin, short on central exchanges.
I'm long on bitcoin, short on central exchanges.
And just who sets the current price of btc? Oohh that is right.. The exchanges.
I think you might be confused about the role that an exchange plays in the market.
Who will sell me bitcoins for less then what the exchange will sell them to me for? I offer 9 usd per btc. Sound good? Why not?
Becuase u can sell them for more at an exchange.
Now why would i offer 14 usd per btc? I can buy for less at an exchange.
The exchange offers constant buy and asks which help determine what these eleet off exchange people buy and sell for in my mind.
September 30, 2012, 07:00:09 PM
And just who sets the current price of btc? Oohh that is right.. The exchanges.
They're certainly the guide as they were the first in. That doesn't mean that they'll be the primary future source of trading. A large share of trading in the larger, traditional markets are being conducted off-exchange also. The exchange prices are similarly used for their trading.
As Bitcoin itself is decentralized, it seems to me that the natural environment of bitcoin trading would also be decentralized. The exchanges were necessary for bootstrapping the new economy but like booster rockets, they won't be necessary once critical velocity is achieved.
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