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Topic: Volume in recent weeks has fallen off a cliff, what do you make of it? - page 2. (Read 3063 times)

kjj
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1026
It indicates that a lot off-exchange sales are happening. People have had time to form the beginnings of decentralized exchanges and trading agreements with each other so that bitcoins are going elsewhere for sale/trade instead of just exchanges. The salad days of the exchanges are winding down as they won't be the only game in town anymore. Banks will also be making it harder and harder for exchanges to operate as the Bitcoin network grows. 

I'm long on bitcoin, short on central exchanges.

And just who sets the current price of btc? Oohh that is right.. The exchanges.

I think you might be confused about the role that an exchange plays in the market.
legendary
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1001
It indicates that a lot off-exchange sales are happening. People have had time to form the beginnings of decentralized exchanges and trading agreements with each other so that bitcoins are going elsewhere for sale/trade instead of just exchanges. The salad days of the exchanges are winding down as they won't be the only game in town anymore. Banks will also be making it harder and harder for exchanges to operate as the Bitcoin network grows. 

I'm long on bitcoin, short on central exchanges.

And just who sets the current price of btc? Oohh that is right.. The exchanges.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
It indicates that a lot off-exchange sales are happening. People have had time to form the beginnings of decentralized exchanges and trading agreements with each other so that bitcoins are going elsewhere for sale/trade instead of just exchanges. The salad days of the exchanges are winding down as they won't be the only game in town anymore. Banks will also be making it harder and harder for exchanges to operate as the Bitcoin network grows. 

I'm long on bitcoin, short on central exchanges.
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
We saw the triangle form over the last 4 weeks, with price moving in between its boundaries, thus volatility decreased. Low volume during low volatility is normal. We just broke out of the triangle upwards, no big moves yet. Most indicators point UP. With the next surge in price volume should return. If it doesnt: crash! But thats rather unlikely.

But this is bad and possibly a mid-term bearish indicator. This is Bitcoin! Volume isn't supposed to go up because price goes up, that would make it the definition of a bubble, or wouldn't it? Last time it happened was right before the biggest bust/crash in Bitcoin history, so this shouldn't be taken lightly. Look at June 2011, it also had little changes in price and dropping volume -- until things went downhill. I'd not call the time around 5 comparable. Then, the volume and volatility dropped slowly, after price had been falling for two months. That looked like the market and its actors were adjusting to stability. June last year, and September now, price spiked down and inexplicably recovered, then volume quickly dropped a lot -- this time, price even continued rising at the same time. There is no set price, and volume is so low, the number Gox is showing need not mean much.

It should be the other way around; activity, which correlates with volume, should provide the stability to justify higher prices. BTC trade volume dropping like that is questionable.

The day is about to end, and Gox volume shows 7.7k. Remember that still, 7.2k coins get mined per day! Are we relying on speculating miners for price stability? It seems we are, or else there's almost nobody else trading coins for USD today.

TL;DR: I call it a bearish signal.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
We saw the triangle form over the last 4 weeks, with price moving in between its boundaries, thus volatility decreased. Low volume during low volatility is normal. We just broke out of the triangle upwards, no big moves yet. Most indicators point UP. With the next surge in price volume should return. If it doesnt: crash! But thats rather unlikely.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Volume in USD doesn't show the cliff. Maybe that's all there is to this.

http://imgur.com/OvTZF



(apparently I don't know how to paste images in this forum)
newbie
Activity: 23
Merit: 0
I feel that the reduced volume is caused by the increased barrier to entry in using the Dwolla->MtGox route.  My RL friend who who bought coins in 2011 said it was much easier than now.

So how does this experience from 2011 help explain the drop in volume of the past couple of weeks (which is the topic of this thread)?


Ah, I focused on the wrong thing.

Maybe the recent lull is caused by people getting their fingers burned with bitcoins in Aug/Sept.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
Price is high so, everything priced in bitcoin now takes half as many bitcoins to buy as it use to.

hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
I feel that the reduced volume is caused by the increased barrier to entry in using the Dwolla->MtGox route.  My RL friend who who bought coins in 2011 said it was much easier than now.

So how does this experience from 2011 help explain the drop in volume of the past couple of weeks (which is the topic of this thread)?
newbie
Activity: 23
Merit: 0
I feel that the reduced volume is caused by the increased barrier to entry in using the Dwolla->MtGox route.  My RL friend who who bought coins in 2011 said it was much easier than now.
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
I think we just reached the top of the next 'triangle' in series and will now slowly drop to around $9~$11 in about 2 months.
Then we will start a new rally/triangle.bubble.
If this particular triangle is slow in deflating then it might actually stay pretty straight or even go slightly up in this period.
member
Activity: 64
Merit: 10
Ppl r in wait and see mode; the price has ran up well recently.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Maybe because Mt Gox recently lost UK traders? Good question.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1003
Volume in recent weeks has fallen off a cliff, while price has went up, what do you make of it?
My theory is that there are not much people selling, holding the coins back to see what happens
after the halving of block reward. So for the people that want to get coins, they have to put up
increasingly high bids to get coins.



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