Of course, I am still not convinced that this market has transitioned into anything beyond further consolidation.. even if there are recent bullish tendencies in the past month or so and especially in the past couple of weeks.
But, projections of impending new lows, borders on wishful thinking to me, even while we cannot really rule out that the bottom is NOT in...
For example, if we stay above $4,200 in the coming weeks, then I might just switch over to considering this a bull market, at that time.
TLDR: The next two weeks = critical
Yes, this phase of consolidation is more likely to continue. Whilst we may be at the start of an uptrend, the likelihood of a new low has not receded that much (hazard a guess at 35% ?)
I would add one more , possibly useful, comment :
The break down from $6200 was sharp, and showed the weakness of support in the zone between 6k and 4k. This is often mirrored on the way up, therefore resistance is likely to be weak, hence the ease with which price has risen in the last couple of months. Assuming the bottom is in (balance of probability only),
there could still be a lot of work to do (and time to spend) in this area, before any decisive further advance.
Pessimistic scenario : 5-6k needed revisiting and testing before a new low.
Optimistic scenario : 5-6k will work out and consolidate over a few more months, providing the base for a 2020 uptrend.
