I think I can now safely predict we are going to close this weekly candle on the green.
Y so reckless?
Calculated risk, yo
#YOLO
I mean... holy fuck!!!!
We were pretty certain to get green this week, but look where we ended up.
We have 6 weekly candles in a row that were very modest (averaging less than $100 per candle), and then all of a sudden, we get a seventh candle (in that streak) that is up $1,000. In my humble bumble opinion, next week is going to be more difficult to get a greenie... we will see, we will see. Way too early in this week to be predicting what will happen by the time we reach the end of this week.
Yup, next week candle could be anything (even either a $1000 pump or dump... or some sideways). Good thing is a red candle (as long is it is above support) would not break the (at least temporary) bullish trend. We will see. This is fine.
Personally, I could give a ratt's ass about where the support is exactly, and I would assert that a red candle at the end of this week would be fine, acceptable and reasonably bullish, as long as it is within the territory in which we started this pump..... which is $4,200-ish, and even likely better if it stays above and closes above $4,200-ish.
As you may notice, sometimes, I get a bit aggressive towards lines on a chart... unless they happen to fall in a framework that resonates with my range bound framework.
![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
4.2K would be too low unless it strongly rebounds there. If we can keep $4800, a golden cross would be due in around a couple of weeks, which could be very bullish.
Of course, Bitcoin will do whatever he feels like. As always.
I thought that I was being fairly conservative with my $4.2k, and I would be willing to go even lower and still stay confident that we are on a great trajectory for transitioning into a undeniable bull market.
For the sake of argument, let's just presume that $4.2k is my pessimism threshold and $4.8k is your pessimism threshold, then we are only in disagreement about the significance of a $600 in price.
I will concede that if price stays above $4,800 for the next week or even two weeks, that would be a pretty decent sign for transitioning into bullishness, and might even cause me to start to label the market as such.
Currently, I just would not want to set myself up for disappointment because I believe that it is just not very likely to hold $4,800 for a week or two, unless the price shoots additionally up from here into the $6,200 to $6,500 range.. then it would become more feasible, in my thinking, that $4,800 could hold. I understand that some peeps in this thread are beginning to think about $7k and even supra $7k, and I just ain't ready to go there yet in my thinking without considering that a decent correction in the 30% plus arena ain't going to happen first.
So the current upper end of my BTC price expectations in this run is in about $6,500, and if we look at a run to $6,500, then a correction of at least 30% from $6,500 would still bring us down to $4,550, so even with my giving various benefits of the doubt, I really believe that it is too pie in the sky to NOT get back down to $4,550-ish at some point in the coming week or two...
I, both, have no problem being wrong nor would a waive any right to adjust my thinking based on significantly material changes in our current price performance that seems to continue with decent upwards price pressures. Anyone who asserts that times are currently boring in bitcoin deserves to be banned from bitcointalk.. or at least suspended from posting for a few weeks...
TLDR: in other words, the next two weeks are critical.
tm