Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 11103. (Read 26729993 times)

Yep - front running creating a false start is actually even 'likely' (given expectations).

An early rush going over 10k by autumn this year, lots of froth and fomo starting and then a pull back before EOY, just as the 'here we go' was kicking in.  

Then two runs makes sense, too

A fake run that fizzles before 'Moon' and baffles everyone.  Then a 'real run' becomes possible (and organic) after a few month's breather.  I can see that as a very plausible scenario.

The thing is that if any new coin just by being "technologically superior" (not the case of BSVlol) would *easily* replace Bitcoin then crypto (all of it) as a store of value would be RIP.

The way you worded your post makes it seems as if you were implying that the market not buying a coin makes it technologically inferior. By that reasoning chart music would be the greatest musical accomplishment in all of human history and Amazon would be one of the greatest failures in the world of business.

^


Hmmm interesting.  Would need to chart that.  


In the immortal words of Sheryl Crow:

No one said it would be easy
No one said it'd be this hard
No one said it would be easy
No one thought we'd come this far

Yes, that's pretty much what I envison as well, see a couple of posts above.
If so, and played right, there would be a potential to make a LOT of dough, first on the upside, then either sell or short (for super-risk takers), then re-load for the ultimate adventure.
2013 did almost a 100x in a year or slightly less.
The rough equivalent would be to go to 35-45K on the first peak, "crash" down to 7-9K, then up again to 160-200K.
Numbers are very approximate, and could be 50% of what is indicated.

Agreed.  


Yes I think the fractal is being front run by a couple of months by traders trying to get an edge.  But they are probably being too greedy right now and have gotten ahead of themselves.  

If we break the fractal and break upwards, I am developing a theory that 2019/2020 will see a rerun of the 2013 double peak.  The 2015 fractal is conclusively front run and broken upwards, and then we coming screaming back down and Bitcoin is pronounced dead.  And then after Bitcoin is officially dead, we bounce parabolically upwards.  Please note, this secondary model is dependent on a massive price surge in 2019.  If we do not see a surge to $10k or above, then much less likely to eventuate.  

The chart below shows what I consider to be the more likely outcome, which is a reversion to the 2015 fractal.

+1 WOsMerit

I look at what other people are doing once in awhile and access what I can learn and improve upon but generally just do my own thing. That being said..some charts are more accurate than others.


   ...one final question..you were looking at someone elses charts??


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O'Queen. Of course the nice little puppy dogs would never ever hurt the big fluffy bunnies. ni-night.   

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jeez Hairy..that one chart..like raining meteorites down on us. buzz kill. now we have to worry about the 250sma...ffs

How does this play with your fractals theory Hairy? Are the markets being front run as savy investors gear up for the next mania phase? Genuinely interested in your thoughts or anyone elses on the matter.


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It seem fairly certain we will test the 0.236 fib in the near future as market dynamics and bitcoins halvening cycle come to terms with each other. So that begs the question..with the assumed value lets say $8k to $10k after next years halving, will the market move to continue capturing this overhead liquidity? If so then the 0.382 fib is not that far off...and from there a skip to the 0.5 and the psychological barrier of $10k
The 0.618 appears to be a likely support base to solidify before heading upwards towards further gainz. #dyor

To finish and take this crude model further..if the apparent market price of three to five thousands dollars holds true for this years valuation and we extrapolate a doubling in that price every four years to take into account for the halvenings..hmmmm..maybe some numbers to work with...I dunno. After 2020 10k+  after 2024 20k+  after 2028 40k+ median price of course..with spike out way to either side. You get the idea.
You have to start putting numbers and ideas out there right?
So we will see which way the dice falls and continue preparations for the $100k party in the late 2020s...maybe 2030?
We shall see.

D


W

#stronghands

Late, long thoughts - on the 'are we going faster?' subject:

Now, I am not a TA guy, more of an economics nerd with an interest in history and behavioural economics.  But I am trying to glean something useful from Bitcoin's unique patterns - and while I am not a chart demon, I have spent a few years watching lines and charts here.

Firstly: Why earlier this year I became convinced about the bottom being in.

I was watching for the January low, which is when (apart from the last two 'ATH in December' years) we seemed to always seem the annual low for most years - usually around the end of the second week of Jan.

One thing I was also watching was the (unfashionable) 3 Day chart (200/50MA)
 
Here is late late 2014 to Jan 2015 chart:


Note the MAs 'death cross' and the immediate freefall to the absolute low.  About 9 of the 3day candles after the cross.

Then here is the same period now:


Note the same freefall right after the MA death cross - in a similar time frame - to what I now think is the absolute cycle low (again).

At first I waited for January, expecting the 'real' low might still be in January.  Then, when it wasn't lower than 3122, I sought out the 3Day charts and the pattern seemed to make it pretty obvious the bottom was definitely December.  The main thing that is noticeable if we are looking at the fractal nature of this is that the 2018 death cross was earlier (in November) not in December as per 2014.

Secondly: Since then, I have tried plotting ratios for daily price patterns to match historical data (price 'now' vs 2015) starting at comparing from the start point of the two crossover points (in spreadsheets) and then running again comparing from the two January low points etc... but it still didn't really crunch to explain this last push up to over 5K - as Hairy just posted here too. One outlier spike? Perhaps - but I seriously doubt it.

However, this divergence does not mean there is no worth in continuing to measure over time and watching things like how long it is until the MAs cross in the opposite direction back up again (etc.)  It was 13 months after the 2014 cross until it pushed up through it again (but that is too long to wait for!)

The 3-day death cross was early.  The 5K seems not-to-pattern, too - but I think it is also 'too early to say' and 2015 was a volatile year (as this one is starting to look like it might become).

So what's this long post for?

I am throwing this up for Hairy, Toxic, fillippone and all - just in case it helps in the debate and helps in finding as many key points as possible to watch. Things to watch and check if the fractal is matching, going at the same pace, or not.  The actual price obviously cannot possibly fit exactly - but there has been a pattern and it's been too close to ignore.  A 4-year cycle, an 85% drop from the high, highs in December... we have all spotted it.  But what will tell us more; or bring up further thoughts that might lend an edge to guessing what's coming?

That so many have noted a pattern and want to track it means (as I said in my last long post) it is likely it will be front run and therefore the pattern will break...  Perhaps only in terms of its velocity, perhaps in totally breaking it - but there are numbers, markers, and time points along the way - so it must be possible to at least see how close it's running to pattern, or if it's diverging predictably, or just veering off.

Thoughts welcome on other things it would be good to factor in.  One thing that is obvious is that the traditional 'big gun' TA gurus have been pretty useless in predicting the hike we just had - so some thinking out of the box is surely warranted. They seem to be a tad behind accepting the kind of thinking in here thus far - and only just catching up.  It's only now that a few of them are saying cautiously 'the bottom is in', when there was surely at least a case for saying it by the end of January.

In here it's been more optimistic - I think rightly so, too.  Of course in 2015, no one was expecting another bubble as spectacular as 2017.  Now everyone assumes we 'will' have a even bigger bubble again... as sure as eggs are eggs - and are just arguing about 'when'. I do think we will have one more huge bull run, but how will it play out?  

Well, it will maybe rhyme - but it cannot be quite the same.  And that's... as sure as honey badger not giving a shit.

DYOR: This is speculation and as always can be dead wrong, but what the hell - ain't no walls to observe any more...

I don't think we disagree.  The market has decided (fact) that BSV has 1.7% the value of Bitcoin. 

Exactly...and that was the best response to his verbiage as well (on twitter).
That said, it is possible that we would re-do the "summer of 2015" theme, which it would be up to $4800-5000, down to $3750, all within a month or two.
Then, up we go, by the exponent.
Impossible?

I still like to compare our recent flat with late 2012-early 2013. Check it out.
Nothing, then a hockey stick. It might happen here as well.
If it does, we might form a local peak at 35-40K as early as in 3-4 months (from the start of the exponential move), or in 5-6 mo if it is a bit stretched out.

A lot of people still use fiat.

They're in for a big surprise.

https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1114146817711775744

Five of them, but only one of them asked me to help him figure it out.  

Appeal to authority and generally irrelevant.

What the market has decided upon doesn't change the facts.

This is said again and again, and still I do not see how bitcoin is crippled.

Your incessant big blocker rambling.  You don't need to 'save' Bitcoin or whinge about Segwit.  You already have your own coin which is being tested in the open market, with clear results.  

You are not the boss of me.  I don't have to follow either your mandate or your framework.  I have answer the question sufficiently well enough in my several posts, and if you need to read through the lines, then fine, you should be able to handle that.. smarty pants.


Yes, it does.  You are creating an assignment and a framework about what is "acceptable."  Go play that game somewhere else.  We are watching walls and corners, here.  Not talking about how supposedly wonderful the centralized planning of your bcash variants nonsense is.




That's not what I am saying.  I already said what I am saying, and your summary of what I supposedly said was not it.       

And, when it comes to "counterfactual statements", you seem to be very good at that yourself... seemingly deliberately so.

'Tis possible. My money says you'll be proven wrong. Either way, WTF does that have to do with any ongoing discussion here?

Nah, you're fine. We still allow talk of wall observation here.

Why is the green dude wearing a shoe on his hand?