Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 11120. (Read 26729263 times)

Everyone expects the same as the last cycle or two.
I think that it would be different: something resembling 2013.

An approximate scenario: Hard up starting by the end of summer 2019, early fall (maybe 3.7K-6K oscillation beforehand), going much further than expected, could be 20K or even higher earlier in 2020 (Q1 or Q2), hard and fast correction to 7-8K, then re-acceleration into the end of 2020 with prices peaking at about 90-160K.
Dems take the Senate, introduce some wealth taxing legislation.
Bitcoin is in a hard correction during 2021-2022, maybe longer, a really long bear market (stock market is crashing as well).
Do you think that these neato 4-year cycles would continue forever?

TL;DR This would be a fast and furious cycle followed by a longer recession.

The way I see it is we move up to the -0.236 and over the $5.5k range upwards or we are going to fall off this cloud..perhaps spectacularly. Consolidation at the $5k range would also be a good sign though not as bullish. If we do fall back to a pattern of lower lows getting to a end of year 10k target diminish. I dont know about you but years end of 2019 is starting to feel  like its closing in and not so far off to me. Gainz will continue until moral improves. #dyor

D

#stronghands'19 

Trolls are part of ecosystem For proper balance, we need some trolls too, sometimes it gives a fresh perspective that what not to do in the critical situation,

That's alright, we need people like them to make this market more entertaining.

god damn homer

5-6k feels just like 500-600 from 2015-2016. And $3k probably was the $200 which isn't  coming back again.

From now on, assuming it'll follow the same pattern, the price may get stuck between $4k and $6k for a year.

Too cheap to sell after seeing $20k but also at the same time, too expensive to buy after seeing sub $4k not long ago.

This, gentlemen is:

Torture.

Welcome to consolidation.

 Sorry I'm a little late, I was in a hard-fought bidding war while trying to make the new hat.  It comes with a life-time¹ satisfaction guarantee as usual.



avatar-sized



¹ life-time satisfaction guarantee is commensurate with the life-time of your satisfaction

These trolls make it so easy to ignore.

The Jays are in a serious rebuild at the moment. They released or traded most of their recent post-season team within the last year or so and traded away their longest tenured player, Keven Pillar, just yesterday for a 21-year-old pitching prospect and a couple of journeymen. In the process they trimmed their payroll from around $150M to about $50M.

Despite that they're 3-4, ahead of both New York and Boston, mainly on the strength of their starting rotation.

We're all waiting for Vlad Guerrero Jr., the #1 prospect in all of baseball to be brought up but that probably won't happen until May to ensure an extra year of team control. Meanwhile they also have highly rated prospects Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette waiting in the wings. They're kinda where the Yankees were 3 years ago with the Baby Bombers (Judge, Sanchez, etc.) waiting to break through.

Attendance has dropped even more than the payroll. Instead of drawing 40,000 per game, they're lucky to get 10,000 for a weeknight game. They probably get more Jays fans at Safeco Field.   Part of that might be the fact that hockey's still going.

I'm staunchly hodling my season ticket seats behind home plate though. Like Bitcoin, the Jays' future is looking very good.
_____

Congrats on your Mariners' 7-1 record. Our 2 teams are almost sisters, being born the same year. Cheers!  

re: the blow off top of the blow off top

Another great post infofront, thank you.

but I have to say, it is just this kind of thinking that prevented me from cashing in last time...

The lioness..she hunts.

1h


Buy the dips.
4h

#stronghands'19

Inspired by Kurious' recent post, I'd like to post about some related things I've been thinking about:

It seems there are two schools of thought regarding the bubble cycle we've just begun.

• That it will be the same length as every other cycle, as dictated by the halvings. Bubble top: late 2021/early 2022
• Or, that the cycles have been lengthening, and therefore our current cycle will be the longest and hit the top later than in previous cycles. Bubble top: late 2022/early 2023

There's a great debate, on this exact subject, between two of the best analysts on crypto twitter here: https://twitter.com/filbfilb/status/1078316170493734918

It seems that scenario 2 is the consensus among the majority of analysts (and previously myself) - that the next bubble will gain a lower percentage than previous bubbles, and it will take longer. Something like this:



However, there are reasons to believe that may not be the case:

• Bakkt, ETFs, and institutional adoption are likely to be involved in the next bubble. This alone isn't quite as convincing as it's often made out to be. Institutional adoption almost has to be there to take us to the next level, and is baked into every pricing scenario >$50k IMO.
• We may be in the third of four four-year cycles (forming a 16-year super cycle). The four-year cycles can be loosely broken down as 4 phases, the four classic market phases: Accumulation, Uptrend, Distribution, Downtrend.
  
  
  
  The 16 year super cycle can be broken down  the same way, which means we've just begun the four-year Distribution phase, which is essentially the topping phase. If our prices follow this model, then the next bubble top will be the blow of top of the blow off top. It will be the mother of all bubbles ($300K+ possible).  This theory is touched on here, with graphs. He says these kind of cycles are often found in other commodities.
• We're reaching the vertical section of the S-curve. Crypto usage rates are notoriously hard to calculate. Kaspersky recently said that 10% of people have bought something online with crypto. We know there is another portion of crypto users who just speculate and hodl, without ever buying anything. If we put that number of people at 50% (pulling this out of my ass) of people purchasing with crypto, we've got 15% of potential crypto users actually using crypto.
  
  
  
  Of course, since the dawn of the space age, the S curve hasn't looked much like an S:
  
  
  
  Assuming price follows adoption, as it has with every technology which has followed Metcalfe's law that I'm aware of, the crypto twitter/tradingview/bitcointalk seeming consensus of ~$90K-100K is overly conservative.
  Keep in mind, if Bitcoin were Facebook, we'd still be at pre-IPO levels (circa 2009)
  
  

How are the Jays looking Jimbo?

Mariners are on FIRE early.

Lawl.

I get home from the ball game and a few frosties to find we're back to where we were less than half a day ago and some people are acting like the roof fell in.

People are asking if the bull market is over and even Gemtwit has crawled out from under his rock to go weeeeeee.

One tiny correction and whiners are acting like Chicken Little.

It's still well over $5k for Chrissakes. Grow a set.

Fuck off.

 

barting down weeee

hey, that's what governments are for right?

Keep expectations in check : that is the best advice.

This wave up is merely the mirror of the wave down from £6k a few months back. That was quick, with little support. It has not regained $6xxx yet. Even if it does soon, it is going to meet a lot of upside resistance there.

Best scenario would be to get above $6k, then retrace to around 5K and hold for a few months. A year end close above $4k is fine, above 5k would be good.

Wait and watch.