Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1125. (Read 26706730 times)

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I would hope for some bear meat

Exactly!!!!

Where's the beef?

I think some traders are sweating it because lack of upity, Spot ETF inflow will fix this next week.

Zoom out.


Wow!!

I am shocked!!!!!

I am shocked, I must say... .. . shocked!!!!!!!  (maniacally focusing on your "whatever the implications" statement)

You seem to be having troubles appreciating how it is likely so important to NOT get too reliant upon BTC spot prices, especially if you are planning to mostly hold onto your BTC rather than cashing out and investing into something else?

Think about it.  The ONLY way that  BTC spot price is durable (especially if it is in an exponential UPpity phase) would be if you were to cash out into something more stable, and surely we should be more likely to hang onto our coins rather than cashing out, especially when we have developed abilities to both conceptualize and to appreciate the valuation of our BTC stash based on bottom prices rather those all over the place BTC price movements (including tops).

Have we spent all of this time accumulating BTC in order to cash out at the top or somewhere near the top of some perceived exponentially UPpity BTC price move?  That's a rhetorical question.. no homo.

I think not. and I will continue to preach bottoms until I am blue in the face or dead.. whichever comes first (or at the same time), even if there may well be folks who continue to differ in their focuses on tips, and I actually expect that a lot of folks differ in their ways of framing these valuation of BTC stash matters, and that remains part of the explanations for their likely ongoing, consistent and persistent mixed-up-ed-ness when it comes to dee cornz, aka my lil precious, aka king daddy...and udder akas currently not listed herein.


From dee perspective of dis here cat (aka yours truly, aka royal "we"), we should not need to multiply by 5 in order to appreciate a sufficient and adequate cushion, so long as we are using the bottom rather than the tops in order to make our assessments. and so lovely in regards to why you were using your 5x multiplier, which may end up getting similar results to my focusing on bottoms, even though I am going to continue to argue the point. and to see if I can beat these ideas into the skulls of my fellow WO regulars, including uie-pooie. #no homo.  Call me crazy and a bully, if you must.


Well, that is fair..,. but still something seems off about your framing.. maybe I am just getting somewhat confused by some of the interim juggling around of figures?..


That is fair also, yet I see no reason to give up on it. especially since it has so many common ways of referencing it.   We could go to something like 260 WMA or 300 WMA, but it would be so damned uncommon.. which is part of the reason I abandoned referring to the 208 WMA  - especially since so many tools were using the 200-wma.

In other words, we likely can still create tools around the 200-WMA and even account for periods in which the BTC spot price might go below it. which surely is incorporated into the sustainable withdrawal tool. ^{powered by bitmover}


The % gain time of my fuck you status chart shows exactly how much the bottom (or the 200WMA) moved every single 6 month period going back to 2010. .. but yeah, you are measuring the whole cycle (so now I see what you are doing) and then it tries to project the 200WMA going forward based on an anticipated dropping rate.. and the chart even shows the lowest ever appreciation of the 200 WMA was between June 2022 and November 2023 with ONLY a 20% annualized rate of appreciation for that 18 months-ish period.
 

That's what my fairly conservative chart is projecting... to go from $17,829 in late 2017 to $53,484 in late 2025.


You seem to be characterizing your numbers weirdly since the 200 WMA was at $17,829 in late 2021... so it would have to go 6x in order top arrive at $100k.. and so something seems to be wrong about your calling the 3x of the spot price as a cushion .. including that if you are expecting 3x of the 200-wma then 3x of the 200wma for spot price would be $150k-ish..   Maybe we are saying similar things but just using different maths and sciences, and one of us has likely been learning too much from the maths and sciences school of proudhon.


I did not go back and check your earlier numbers.... but maybe I should?  

Yet, just cursorily, 3x to 6x seems reasonable to anticipate putting in that green part, even though it is probably safer to anticipate the range of possibilities to be more broad.. maybe even 1.5x to 20x, in order to attempt to capture the broad set of possibilities in our expectations and more likely to be pleasantly surprised... .which seems decently likely to end up falling in the 3x to 6x range.

Ok... since the numbers are already there, I went back and I calculated the actual numbers with my fuck you status chart..

End of 2013: 28x  206x    $.30 to $62 **
  
End of 2017: 16x   16.92x   $62 to $1,049
  
End of 2021: 4x 17x $1,049 to $17,839

As of February 17, 2024 (slightly more than 1/2 of a cycle):  1.743x   $17,839 to $31,091

** I doubt that we can really come up with a fair representation of 2013, and maybe we could just agree that it was high because the starting out price was so low.

I doubt that there is any material difference with us in terms of 2013 and 2017; however, 2021, our numbers come out quit different.. so who is going to concede in regards to their numbers?  Do we need proudhon to come in here and settle our maths and sciences?

Does a change in numbers for 2017 to 2021 change our speculations?  My own change (and looking at the numbers) causes me to consider that my own fuck you status chart (in terms of the future projection) may well be a we bit too bearish... ..

and so, you can see that I added another row to show how far we have gotten so far, even though we ONLY have a wee bit more than half of cycle, so far.. and we so far have 1.743x.. so 3x.. seems reasonably reachable.. yet of course, nothing is guaranteed.. so we should be well easily placed within the 3x to 6x territory.. and whether king daddy is able to squeeze more than 6x out of this cycle is still to be found out, including the extent to which tops are going to continue to fit more or less within exact 4-year patterns.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Seems to be a bit of a weekend retest of $50,000. The price has held strong so far, would be really bullish if we make $50,000 new support.

I suppose bears are using the weekend as a good time to try and push us lower as the ETF providers aren’t buying so volume is a lot lower. If we don’t go below $50,000 during non legacy trading days, bears will be in disbelief.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

ROTFLMFAO!

Thats great!

IOU +1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JRLCBb7qK8

I stopped drinking or cooking with tap water.  Better go with a soft natural mineral water or filter the tap water with an osmosis filter.  ...and not because of Mr Jones ...

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

dunno if it's over yet

Correction that didn’t even take us below $50K… Bullish.

Eventually they grow up... and then become Karens. 

I blame birth control feminizing the world.

https://www.ncregister.com/news/birth-control-in-drinking-water-a-fertility-catastrophe-in-the-making

Most of the youngings I run into are all SNOWFLAKES.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

the west is totally infected with this shit. And tptb are trying to push this retarded agenda on the rest of the world too.

We shall see.
P. Thiel does not help with his Roth that was 5bil in 2021. Now? Who knows.
They would probably (if not already) try to cap it at some large number, like 10mil.

Go woke, go beyond broke.
Unbelievable.  



‘Bankrupt’ council at centre of budget-cut protest holds ‘Queering Nutrition’ event
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/bankrupt-council-centre-budget-cut-161210330.html


I don't live anywhere near that dump but it's still infuriating this is going on in the UK.

gm   


some charts


dyor


4h


D

stronghands