Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 11406. (Read 26726328 times)

Bear markets dont have to last 10 years.  

You can label it what you like, that's just semantics.

The correction/bear/downwave  will be proportionate to the bull phase. With BTC, it has always been longer in downwave than in upwave.  A study of the  charts reveals that quite clearly.

Way too early to predict a new bullphase this year. It is only a possibility, not a likelihood. Looking back from 2023 we might label it with hindsight.

I take great offense to that statement.


Might as well take the opportunity to note that despite our differences I enjoy reading your (non-TA; don't care about TA in general since I do my own) posts. Or perhaps because of the differences.

First of all, Bitcoin is in a bull market since the beginning  in 2008-2009. For a truly bear market we can talk if the prices are lower 20% from the ATH after 10 years or more (this is the case with gold and silver, which are nearly 10 years much lower than the ATH - the so called "secular" bear market). What we have with Bitcoin is a partial case of a cyclical bear market that can last up to 4 years because of the halvings. The actual length of the cycles is much less than 4 years - so far 1 year tops. And even if we use the term "cyclical bear market" we won't be 100% correct, since the other conditions are not fulfilled: widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment (which actually define the bear market). The reasons for the dips and crashes may be multiple (MtGox dump fear, fork fear, etc.). but are not relatable to the future of Bitcoin at all. What happened in 2015 and 2018 is the most common falling wedge pattern, which is part of the bull market: (https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversal)

"The Falling Wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout occurs. "


So, at some point this year, we will break out from the falling wedge pattern and resume the bull trend. All we need is more volume so the break out will be defended.

I looked back at all my posts in Feb 2018, when I labelled this a Bear Market, due for an 85% drop.  I have never really changed my mind.  

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.30067641

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.29643594

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.30196222

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.30244256



$2k low can still happen.  (I would say around 30% probability now). The longer it stays above £3200 the less likely, but only if there is a creeping rise. Bumping along the bottom is not a good sign. The BTC waves are getting longer as the adoption/market matures, and therefore it might not be possible to call the low being in until at least 2020, worst case 2021.  Regarding your test levels, my own instinct is that a move above $4k which doesn't get reversed for at least 6 months, would be the earliest possible prediction of a bull trend. Even that might be premature.

In the end it's all down to probabilities. Anyone who makes firm dogmatic predictions is due for a lot of disappointments in their trading.  My own instinct, taking all things into consideration, is that there is a 50% chance we touch $5k sometime this year (but may still end sub4k in December) 30% chance there is a new sub3k low, and the bear ends in late 2021. 10% it gets $5k-6k by end year, 5% deep freeze (sub 2k), and 5% moon (that would be ~8k by year end).

Keep up the hopium. I'm a bull too, but a realistic one !

further edit :  I suppose I should give a 10% for 'other', just to be more exacting, so label 'touch 5k this year' as 40%.

Lmao, we need a translation of that sign.

Once Roach sees this video he will wish he had gone to a certain high school in Alabama where he could have really fit in.

https://twitter.com/RacistOTW/status/1102598179974008834

You pay 1 silver bar for 15 minutes and a man with a green beard spanks you

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I don’t know exactly what it is, but surely there is place for r0ach as well......

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Insane beauty of the world ...... just a wrong man leading this beautyfull lands i guess ......

Here is my opinion on this matter. All three scenarios would give one a very high probability of being correct in declaring a Bull Market. The nuance here that is important is that the Bull Market would not start on the day one of these conditions was met, it would still have begun on December 15, 2018. Bear Markets have a way of beating a lot of bulls down and making them set a very high bar for what it would take for them to consider the market to have flipped back to bull.

I was very dedicated to accumulating stocks and index fund investments for years before Bitcoin came along and saved me. Bear and bull markets traditionally are measured by 20 percent moves, but this would be ridiculous in Bitcoin because by that metric we would have had countless bear and bull markets in the last ten years. This forces us to arbitrarily pick what constitutes a Bull or Bear market. We are the pioneers laying down what future generations of coiners will consider traditional.

I do think it is important to distinguish the difference between a circumstance giving one confidence that we are in a Bull Market, vs that circumstance marking the beginning of said Bull Market. You might say that for a sports team that has languished through terrible seasons to have turned itself around and have a good season that the team would need to meet a goal like making the playoffs, or having a winning record 3 quarters into the season, etc.

However if the team gets to the playoffs and you say, well there you go, that team that used to be trash is having a good season, you would be correct. It would also be correct to point out that the good season started in the first play of the first regular season game and the former trash team was having a good season all along, many just didnt believe in them till they made the playoffs.

A few hardcore fans would have been going to pre-season games and cheering on their beloved team from the beginning. Bitcoin has had a shit season, no doubt. I believe that Bitcoin will make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl, win the World Series, win the Stanley Cup, win the Masters, win the World Cup, unify the boxing heavyweight titles, and win the UFC heavyweight championship. I realize many wont believe until they see more results, but I say.................

83 days into the new Baby Bull Market and all is well

I thought that the three scenarios describe different variations, and the third scenario is that it does not go down any further for 1 year... which is not exactly going up, but it would still cause me to begin to assert that we have transformed into a bull market rather than being in our current bear market.

I do sell.  I have a system for selling BTC... especially if the price goes up.   I sell about 1% of the my stash for every 10% the value of BTC goes up.  I tweak a bit here and there in terms of some of the selling specifics, but I do sell as the price goes up and buy back as the price goes down. 

So you are mistaken regarding your point about my supposedly NOT selling BTC... and I sold a lot all the way up to $19,666.  I started buying back in the $19k territory as the price was going down..  Members here make a decent variety of choices about buying and selling and even though Bob might have been all over the map, I doubt that he was trying to trick anyone regarding what he was doing.. and the market is way too BIG for any one particular person to have any meaningful effect either way, even if Bob happened to sell a lot relatively speaking compared with others in this thread.

So largely, going up and staying up would  be your main indicators. Right.

There cheap FIX them back the ones you screwed up on

Btw we have the HM timeline so you know how long they Will be in the cheap-zone

You need an IQ of zero to not be able to figure out that education in the US is stupidly expensive because the US govt is underwriting the loans.  It's supply and demand.  There's a finite amount of teachers and classrooms, so if you create loans that anyone can take without putting up any collateral, EVERYONE will take them and cause the price to skyrocket to artificially high prices and then probably implode the financial and education system with it.  

If it was real capitalism, you would have to apply to a private lender without the govt involved and nobody would get student loans without putting up collateral, and yes, less people would get loans, but the ones who did get them would only take a few years to pay them back instead of 20+ years.  People claim the system HAS to exist this way to give a chance of upward ability to black noggers from the ghetto, but that's all a scam.  The system exists this way solely to drive up prices and force people into bigger loans that end in life long debt slavery.

College tuition in Belgium


There are other reasons.  Don’t blame it on government subsidies

Well I have definitely screwed up that one

It's unbelievable how big of a piece of shit, female acting male Last of the V8s is.  I do not own any Bcash and do not care about Bcash, but he filed a report against you for simply owning Bcash, which is hilarious.  Then he files a report against me for stating an opinion that JayJuanGee is probably a more trustworthy shitcoiner than Bob because Bob was posting "hodl", "to the moon!" and "buy more!" spam while he was dumping $5 million worth of shitcoins on you people. Both of them post all the same bulltard spam, but at least JayJuanGee was not selling while spamming it.

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive? 😮

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https://twitter.com/goldtelegraph_/status/1103735429059231744?s=21

In theory the USDT/USDC spread should mirror the Bitfinex premium.  I can’t be bothered checking it.

The six richest people in the world have a larger net worth separately than the entire market cap of Bitcoin.

The fact that a single person holds more value than Bitcoin, the future global payment currency, shows how early we are.

Accumulate Bitcoin. Every Satoshi matters. $BTC

https://twitter.com/cryptosbatman/status/1103657392217223168?s=21