Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 11408.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3962

Merit: 11519

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: Botnake on March 08, 2019, 02:36:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 08, 2019, 12:24:13 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Okay with 1 and 2 and not for #3.
These scenarios can possibly happen, this market is never easy to predict as it's full of surprises.
But my prediction is at least $6k this year because from that price, we dropped to the current price.

It is not a prediction. It is a description of various possible scenarios.

Accordingly, those are conditions in which I am planning to convert my assessment of the current BTC market dynamics from current status of bear to bull.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3962

Merit: 11519

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: nutildah on March 08, 2019, 02:03:08 AM

Quote from: El duderino_ on March 08, 2019, 02:01:04 AM

Haha we aren’t eating meat anymore for over 3 months or so..... my GF quitted and i followed Roll Eyes

Oh man. Well don't forget to take some sort of vitamins and/or iron supplements! Lest you get weak and soft, make you want to dump your BTC as a side effect of vegetarianism...

Exactly...

hormones will get screwed up. Won't want to have sex, and won't be able to produce babies either. Might not notice in the short term, but could be problematic, and personally, I value both my libido... well mostly my libido.. it is a decent reason for living.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3962

Merit: 11519

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: El duderino_ on March 08, 2019, 01:50:38 AM

Mmmm like this Philippine timezone

To live the pump——-> sleep the dump

Nice weather Nice green-ish btc prices
And my GF on my side
Life can be sunny and good from time to time (and away of them damn burgers... Roll Eyes

)

Have you tried Jollibee yet? I can power down 3 cheesy yum burgers, no problem.

Chowking is also pretty dope. If you get the chance, try to have somebody make you some pork adobo somewhere. That's like their signature dish (of the nation).

I notice the biggest BTC price shifts tend to happen between 8 pm and 10 pm on Mondays (Philippines time zone), that's when the markets are just waking up for the week on the east coast (of the U.S.).

I thought that Philippines was becoming a bit more BTC friendly, and I recall one of the Philippines banks was going to be providing Bitcoin teller machines (BTMs).

Not that I am encouraging spending BTC, but sometimes it can be nice to have possible easy access to emergency funds through BTC, especially when traveling, right? Do you see any BTC teller machines? around manila or other cities?

Botnake

hero member

Activity: 2856

Merit: 667

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 08, 2019, 12:24:13 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Okay with 1 and 2 and not for #3.
These scenarios can possibly happen, this market is never easy to predict as it's full of surprises.
But my prediction is at least $6k this year because from that price, we dropped to the current price.

nutildah

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 8114

Quote from: ivomm on March 08, 2019, 02:12:51 AM

Quote from: nutildah on March 08, 2019, 01:45:45 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 08, 2019, 01:35:42 AM

Quote from: vroom on March 08, 2019, 01:27:57 AM

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their. Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right? Tongue

I still don't understand what keeps Bitfinex steadily above the other exchanges by about $100... I know they are the biggest Tether exchanger, but it seems like people should have been able to find non-USDT ways to arbitrage their price down to an equilibrium after all these months.

Current prices

Bitfinex: $4003
Bitstamp: $3893
Kraken: $3895
GDAX: $3897

Huh

something doesn't add up here

The arbitrage with Bitcoin to fiat is very risky. First, Bitfinex is nothing like the US exchanges (which are under the supervision of SEC) and is known with their "hacks" and "bank problems". This means your money can be stolen and you can't do anything about it. Second: if you buy at Bitstamp and transfer the Bitcoins to Bitfinex, you have to wait several hours during which time the price may dip. And finally, you are allowed to withdraw fiat only once per month a sum less than 1 mil$. Otherwise, you have to pay 3% fee. And since USDT is traded 2% higher than the USD, you are not able to withdraw on a profit USDT. Speaking of arbitrage, it is better to use ETH or other alt, because they are faster. But the premium is smaller, I think 1.5%. Anyway, it is not worth the risk IMO.

A lot of people still trust them, it would appear, with a $24.5 million BTC/USD daily volume. But you're likely right -- it exists for a reason, such things always do. There's no such thing as a free lunch.

HairyMaclairy

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 2282

Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 08, 2019, 12:24:13 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) ~~February 2020~~ December 2019

kenzawak

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 851

Quote from: El duderino_ on March 08, 2019, 01:50:38 AM

And my GF on my side

Hey mic (and others), don't forget what today is :

And roach, get some flowers for... your sister.

ivomm

legendary

Activity: 1891

Merit: 3096

All good things to those who wait

Quote from: nutildah on March 08, 2019, 01:45:45 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 08, 2019, 01:35:42 AM

Quote from: vroom on March 08, 2019, 01:27:57 AM

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their. Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right? Tongue

I still don't understand what keeps Bitfinex steadily above the other exchanges by about $100... I know they are the biggest Tether exchanger, but it seems like people should have been able to find non-USDT ways to arbitrage their price down to an equilibrium after all these months.

Current prices

Bitfinex: $4003
Bitstamp: $3893
Kraken: $3895
GDAX: $3897

Huh

something doesn't add up here

The arbitrage with Bitcoin to fiat is very risky. First, Bitfinex is nothing like the US exchanges (which are under the supervision of SEC) and is known with their "hacks" and "bank problems". This means your money can be stolen and you can't do anything about it. Second: if you buy at Bitstamp and transfer the Bitcoins to Bitfinex, you have to wait several hours during which time the price may dip. And finally, you are allowed to withdraw fiat only once per month a sum less than 1 mil$. Otherwise, you have to pay 3% fee. And since USDT is traded 2% higher than the USD, you are not able to withdraw on a profit USDT. Speaking of arbitrage, it is better to use ETH or other alt, because they are faster. But the premium is smaller, I think 1.5%. Anyway, it is not worth the risk IMO.

Edit. This does not mean that there are no people who take advantage of this arbitrage possibility. I am sure most of the miners prefer to sell in Bitfinex to have a bit bigger profit. And since the volume is very low recently like 1.8K for a time last Sunday and 6-7K like today, this may have a significant negative impact on the price. If the price is the same, not many miners will risk to use Bitfinex. So for me, the sooner this gap is closed, the better.

jbreher

legendary

Activity: 3080

Merit: 1688

lose: unfind ... loose: untight

Quote from: El duderino_ on March 06, 2019, 09:46:00 PM

Quote from: realr0ach on March 06, 2019, 09:41:53 PM

LastoftheV8TrilemmaShills is now filing FALSE REPORTS against me. ...

I’m not gonna search for things..... but i just know V8 isn’t really someone thats a liar.....

Yeah, I was as surprised as anyone might be to learn that V8 is a whiny bitch in the shadows. And that's all I'm gonna need to say about that.

nutildah

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 8114

Quote from: El duderino_ on March 08, 2019, 02:01:04 AM

Haha we aren’t eating meat anymore for over 3 months or so..... my GF quitted and i followed Roll Eyes

Oh man. Well don't forget to take some sort of vitamins and/or iron supplements! Lest you get weak and soft, make you want to dump your BTC as a side effect of vegetarianism...

El duderino_

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 13660

BTC + Crossfit, living life.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: El duderino_ on March 08, 2019, 01:50:38 AM

Mmmm like this Philippine timezone

To live the pump——-> sleep the dump

Nice weather Nice green-ish btc prices
And my GF on my side
Life can be sunny and good from time to time (and away of them damn burgers... Roll Eyes

)

Have you tried Jollibee yet? I can power down 3 cheesy yum burgers, no problem.

Chowking is also pretty dope. If you get the chance, try to have somebody make you some pork adobo somewhere. That's like their signature dish (of the nation).

I notice the biggest BTC price shifts tend to happen between 8 pm and 10 pm on Mondays (Philippines time zone), that's when the markets are just waking up for the week on the east coast (of the U.S.).

Haha we aren’t eating meat anymore for over 3 months or so..... my GF quitted and i followed Roll Eyes

jbreher

legendary

Activity: 3080

Merit: 1688

lose: unfind ... loose: untight

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on March 06, 2019, 05:54:09 PM

Is Binance coin superior to Bitcoin Cash?

https://i.ibb.co/gjd7dMf/9261-EFCA-D31-C-462-D-A319-D65-FE06-BB7-B6.jpg

Probably not. I really haven't had cause to look into Binance Coin. But I'm guessing it is probably not publicly mineable. Probably not even mined? If such, it is arguably not even a cryptocurrency, in the proper definition of the word.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3962

Merit: 11519

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: nutildah on March 08, 2019, 01:45:45 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 08, 2019, 01:35:42 AM

Quote from: vroom on March 08, 2019, 01:27:57 AM

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their. Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right? Tongue

I still don't understand what keeps Bitfinex steadily above the other exchanges by about $100... I know they are the biggest Tether exchanger, but it seems like people should have been able to find non-USDT ways to arbitrage their price down to an equilibrium after all these months.

Current prices

Bitfinex: $4003
Bitstamp: $3893
Kraken: $3895
GDAX: $3897

Huh

something doesn't add up here

I think that it is margin trading too... but I think more importantly a bit of a lack of confidence in the various banking relations of Bitfinex and the fact that they are forced to use tether. I don't think that it is a BIG deal because there have always been exchanges that are out of alignment. Sometimes the out of alignment lasts for short periods and resolves and other times it lasts a lot longer, as this Bitfinex gap seems to be persisting.

I also believe that when peeps try to read too much into the gap, they are getting caught upon largely distracting irrelevancies.... even if every once in a while some kind of interesting analysis may come of out such price gap focuses.

El duderino_

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 13660

BTC + Crossfit, living life.

Mmmm like this Philippine timezone

To live the pump——-> sleep the dump

Nice weather Nice green-ish btc prices
And my GF on my side
Life can be sunny and good from time to time (and away of them damn burgers... Roll Eyes

)

nutildah

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 8114

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 08, 2019, 01:35:42 AM

Quote from: vroom on March 08, 2019, 01:27:57 AM

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their. Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right? Tongue

I still don't understand what keeps Bitfinex steadily above the other exchanges by about $100... I know they are the biggest Tether exchanger, but it seems like people should have been able to find non-USDT ways to arbitrage their price down to an equilibrium after all these months.

Current prices

Bitfinex: $4003
Bitstamp: $3893
Kraken: $3895
GDAX: $3897

Huh

something doesn't add up here

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3962

Merit: 11519

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: Searing on March 08, 2019, 01:35:02 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 08, 2019, 12:24:13 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

The fact of making predictions like that is 'scary' to me.....with last years track record....well....just reading any of the above spooks me these days Sad

(i used to be such a BTC crypto hero..er..now..meh...need to get my head on straight and just buy now I guess)

brad

They are not predictions.

Based on today's BTC market dynamics, they are conditions in which I would begin to assert that we have converted from a bear market to a bull market.

So I agree with you that currently times are a bit depressing, because we are in a bear market. However, if any of the three conditions play out, then I am willing to convert my assertion about what market I believe that we are in. In other words, I am attempting to be descriptive rather than predictive and giving three different scenarios to change the market label from bear to bull.

Edit: By the way, decent battle going on for dominance at $3,900 right now, and some peeps would call this healthy organic growth. Perhaps...it is. perhaps.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3962

Merit: 11519

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: vroom on March 08, 2019, 01:27:57 AM

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their. Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right? Tongue

Searing

copper member

Activity: 2898

Merit: 1465

Clueless!

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 08, 2019, 12:24:13 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

The fact of making predictions like that is 'scary' to me.....with last years track record....well....just reading any of the above spooks me these days Sad

(i used to be such a BTC crypto hero..er..now..meh...need to get my head on straight and just buy now I guess)

brad

vroom

legendary

Activity: 1303

Merit: 1681

a Cray can run an endless loop in under 4 hours

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their. Grin

bones261

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1828

Quote from: kenzawak on March 08, 2019, 12:30:54 AM

I don't think it's been mentioned before but Coinbase is gonna add staking to its services :

https://bitcoinerx.com/exchanges/coinbase-aiming-to-beef-up-services-with-staking-after-new-hire/

Great. Nothing like trusting coins to a third party hot wallet...

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 11408. (Read 26726429 times)