My question is can you or anyone else give me their best argument as to why the bottom is in or not.
From my perspective, your question is
inappropriate useless.
Bitcoin is a new emerging asset class, in the initial throes of price discovery. To attempt to time this market is madness.
Price goes up; price goes down - you can't explain that. All we really know is:
1) whether or not the world knows it or not, it needs a permissionless uncensorable form of money free from the whims of central planners; and
2) a vanishingly small percentage of the world has yet awaken to postulate 1).
From these two, we can conclude that the long term trend is up, and will remain so until such time that the world at large is onboard.
Ignore the noise. Buy today all you can conceivably afford to lose. Hodl on.
Pit pat piffy wing wang wong.
Bear waxes bullish.. Set defcon3. Reluctantly issues +1 WOsMerit..
Quite being so speciest. I've
always been bullish. Publicly, even.
Thanks for the merit.
My condition is much more specific..and by many considered much more serious.
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I can think of at least one strong reason why satoshi would like to sow doubt about his existence.
So in your example of a possible scenario he (Satoshi) would come out and pretend to be a total dick to not be outed properly as a genius?
Or perhaps satoshi
is a total dick. I mean, why not?
As I recall, the initial outing was not uttered by CSW.
Yes he did, he told various people 'in confidence' and left clues lying around in the hope they would be picked up.
https://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/bizarre-saga-craig-wright-latest-inventor-bitcoinA particularity dickish thing to do.
Jbear
In your opinion, what are the odds that CSW is Satoshi?
I would be interested in you stating in clear terms what probability you consider this to be true? I appreciate that certain things may be unknowable with present knowledge, but that is why we assign probabilities.
So please tell us what is your probability that CSW is Satoshi.
I have a vague curiosity as well. Personally, I have never had any interaction with Craig so all of my data is either second or third hand speculation. Be that as it may, what I am able to intuit tell's me that he is narcissistic to the point of arrogance. That he thrives on the attention that the uncertainty of he's identity creates and seems to have no problem at all dealing with what some could call shady personalities.
These things and other "facts" lead me to believe with 99.9% confidence that he is
not Satoshi.
Logically the reasons behind hes unwillingness to disclose whether or not he controls the key to the genesis block make no sense too me.
Lets look at these rationally.
Pros
1) Revealing control of the genesis key basically tells the world it was never about money. Coins could and should have been dumped many times over if it had been.
2) Even controlling such a big stake of coins that there was a true belief in decentralization. A hands off approach or at least a behind the scenes one over the project direction has been encouraged.
3) The incredible social network effect that would happen to Bitcoin knowing that the creator was still around and interested in development.
4) Banishing doubt over dishonesty or fraudulent claims.
5) ?
Cons
1) Opsec becomes increasingly difficult.
2) The continuation or creation of a cult of personality.
3) Becoming(more of) a known fraud and liar.
4) ?
This is just a short list off the top of my head..I am sure it can be made much longer with some creativity.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/4-billion-lawsuit-against-craig-wright-moves-forward-as-judge-declines-dismissal-requesthttps://www.courtlistener.com/docket/6309656/68/kleiman-v-wright/Interesting how the last dump occurred about this time no?
I will be following this case with interest as I am sure many are. What are your thoughts jb?