Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 12143. (Read 26609702 times)

sucker

Difficulty is massively dropping.

Miners will be or are already profitable again.

Here's another interesting silver fact for evil Jew shill HairyMcLarry.  The price of silver before the hunt brothers pump in 1980 was $5.  World debt is now 25x higher than it was then.  As most people know, or rather some of you know, debt is the money supply.  One man's debt is another man's supposed asset and it's all interlinked.  

So just going by money supply/debt levels alone, it wouldn't even be strange for silver to be $5 x 25 = $125 an ounce right now.  Hell, it would not only not be strange, it would be perfectly normal.  And that's not even taking into account there's 1/4th as much above ground physical silver now as in 1980.  When you hear someone make the claim silver is the most undervalued and suppressed asset on the entire planet, they aren't joking.  

How would you characterize the sell off this past year? Are we really looking for $6k so soon? Might not just getting the miners back towards profitability be a good start? As for Taproot and Schnorr rings, isn't increasing fungibility also increasing the fundamentals?

I definitely think waiting for confirmation of your bias is a good thing however.

If i call a bottom now we will likely crash at least 50%. 

Maybe I should say that TA is used in the absence of fundamentals

And fundamentals and informational advantages in Bitcoin are very few and far between.

That makes Bitcoin pure from a TA perspective

Sorry, most humans do not use TA to achieve consensus on price.
In fact, I posit that you cannot make really large amounts of money using TA (unless you are a computer, I suppose).
The only way I have seen examples of large money being made is by placing reasonably large bets (that are not portfolio crushing if they don't not work out, but extremely rewarding when they do work out) on less likely outcomes where you have some legally obtained informational advantage (say, you analyzed a particular situation from an angle that everybody else missed).
Example: Soros' bet against the pound, etc.

Personally, apart from btc, I am thinking of learning (or re-learning) how to short equities.
There will be lots and lots of opportunities to make money this way in the next 10-12 years.
Index funds are so dead in the water or worse going forward.

 

In your defence we do have a descending wedge reversal pattern (unconfirmed).  I just think it happens to be a trap.



https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversal


I think the news doesn't matter in a bear market.  None of those will create any volume without demand, and there wont be any demand in a bear market.  Bakkt will achieve nothing meaningful in the short term.  It does open up new channels for when demand arises in the next bull run.  

TA is the way that humans achieve consensus on price.  The price is an expression of solace in pattern matching, that is the only way short consensus can be achieved (fundamentals drive long term consensus - except long term TA takes into consideration fundamentals).  The fundamentals driving long term price are primarily the halvening cycles, which is a supply side constraint.  Supply gets restricted, selling pressure on the market from miners eases, price goes rocketing up.  Its really that simple.  The correlation with legacy to date has been so low as not be worth worrying about.  

Yes Taproot and Schnorr are nice, but they are icing on the cake, not fundamentals.  

My take on the technicals is there is a lot of traffic to get through before you can get back to $6k.  That is going to require a really powerful event.  The current descending wedge is not it IMHO.  Keep in mind that $6k is almost a doubling in price. 

On an extremely volatile asset, assuming the price returns to the price at which you bought it, there is a trading strategy that makes a profit, as opposed to buying and holding (which would not profit in our example).
Here's a simple explanation https://blog.enigma.co/is-there-a-free-lunch-in-the-crypto-markets-c4aa331443f1

Imagine you start with $1,000, $500 in stock and $500 in cash. Suppose the stock halves in price the first day. This gives you a $750 portfolio with $250 in stock and $500 in cash. This is now lopsided in favor of cash. You rebalance by withdrawing $125 from the cash account to buy stock. This leaves you with a newly balanced mix of $375 in stock and $375 in cash.
Now repeat. The next day, let’s say the stock doubles in price. The $375 in stock jumps to $750. With the $375 in the cash account, you have $1,125…
… After a dramatic plunge, the stock’s price is back to where it began. A buy-and-hold investor would have no profit at all. Shannon’s investor has made $125.

If you do a little math, you'll find that transaction fees will kill this trading strategy.   If you pay transaction fees on the order of 0.2% (like crypto exchange fees), then balancing small moves like 5 or 10 percent will actually lose you money.  The asset has to be very volatile, and it's only worth rebalancing after big moves such as in the example.
Also, you're going to lose money in a bear market, unless you have the resources to hang on for years until the asset's price returns to where you bought it (if it ever does).

Sorry dude we need to get through January tax time first.

I don’t know if he is doing alright.  If he was doing alright then he probably would be participating in this forum, but his last post were filled with a lot of crazy talk and he was also accused of scamming people out of their money in some crypto game, too.  I don’t really follow, just going based on my memory of some of the last post that I saw from him and about him.

Pietilä's castle burning was mentioned here a while back, but I know it can be hard to keep up. Here's a Google Translate of Estonian news about it.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=et&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.delfi.ee%2Fnews%2Fpaevauudised%2Feesti%2Fsoome-bitcoini-paruni-eestis-asuvat-kinnisvara-laastavad-salaparased-polengud-alles-asja-poles-maha-malla-mois%3Fid%3D83721469&edit-text=

Hmm, doesn't look like the flames hit the required 1800F degrees to melt the physical silver inside.  Not too sure about the survival of the bitcoin private keys on those computers though.

I hadn't heard about that either. Good to hear he's doing alright though.

Why I panic sold 13 BTC like a small 9-year-old girl (with much sobbing). The whole idea of crypto was to retire 3 years early (2.5 years to go) before full retirement on traditional investments and

social security at 66 years and 2 months. (thus still 'hoarding' crypto....was mining..that boat sunk, along with altcoin angle. Sigh.)

As much as I like crypto and BTC etc and HODL mode, I like not working for any 'idiot boss' much better.

Did sell ASIC equipment for 4 BTC, so my 'panic 9-year-old sell' of 13 BTC is now only 9 BTC.

Chump or Champ. I'm always in one camp or the other camp.

I swear, I should make all decisions on cyrpto with a 'coin toss', I'd likely do 'much better'

FML

Oh wow...No I did not hear about it. Thanks for the link.

If only I read this and realized the risks earlier. I continued to hodl nearly all my bitcoins and alts. And now it seems I need a job in 2019.

Do you people think NASDAQ will still list bitcoin?

The handle has fallen too far. Generally, the handle can only retrace about 1/3 of the way down the right side of the cup. In the case of silver, it's plunged ~70%, not adjusted for inflation.