Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 12145. (Read 26609705 times)

This article is old, but Jimmy Song estimated that it cost Bitmain $500 per unit to manufacture an S9 and the R&D cost was about 10M.
https://medium.com/@jimmysong/just-how-profitable-is-bitmain-a9df82c761a
The development of the 7nm chip was more problematic for them, so probably cost them more in R&D and failed chip tapeouts. Also, the Trump tariffs are adding 25% to the cost of Bitmain ASICS for US customers. This is likely to give any potential US customers some pause before purchasing.

Your chart is the typical amateur level analysis of metals.  It requires moving twice as many tons of dirt now to get one ounce of silver as it did in the early 2000's.  There's also 1/4th as much above ground, investment grade silver right now as the year 1980, while there's twice as much above ground gold since then.  It's not possible for silver to go down to $6 like you claim.  

Peak gold and silver has already happened for humans on planet earth with current mining and energy technology.  Cost of production ranges from like $13-20+ for various companies.  The reason above ground silver stocks have depleted so badly while gold has not is because the majority of gold is recycled while silver was manipulated too artificially low, which caused people to not attempt to conserve it at all.  It would be like the govt of Venezeula artifically setting gas to 10 cents a gallon.  People will just set it on fire for fun, but it eventually causes things to rubberband back the opposite way.

Safest to buy when the price has doubled from the lows, over at least a few months.Then you are with the trend.

It will be a bit of a wait now, because we are still in the downtrend. It is psychologically damaging to buy a downtrend, but if you think you can cope, go ahead ! Patience required.

Roach you may have just persuaded me to short the fuck out of physical silver.  That silver chart is completely broken.  Any rally will get crushed by sellers trying to exit their bags.  I assume that's why you are here.  Trying to flog your bags of shit coins. 

Even if your theory about Bitfinex and Bitmain rigging the price might make some sense, you exaggerate your "analysis" to fit your narrative.

First, Bitmain started selling vast amounts of their BTC reserves in August 2017. Most of the parabolic BTC pump came later than that... while they were burning BTC to increase their BCH stash up to a ridiculous 1.5M+ coins. So no, it wasn't Bitmain. Maybe on the contrary.

Bitfinex? Well, we have theorised many times about the relevance of Tether in the pump and subsequent dump. We haven't been able to reach a convincing conclusion.

Will Bitmain going belly up have a negative impact on price? Most probably, at least in the short term. Same goes with Bitfinex.

But in either case I don't think the impact will be critical for Bitcoin and unless you have some way to quantify it, it is all mere speculation.

It's still a cup and handle on the adjusted for inflation version.


Short term TA trends towards being random noise while longer term TA holds much more weight.  So a 40 year cup and handle is not something you can hand wave away like one of HairyJewLarry's 15 minute charts.

Here is a proper chart adjusted for inflation and showing prices, seeing as Roach is too afraid to show actual numbers.  

Incidentally that's a lower high on the multi-century time frame but let's not worry too much about that.  Ain't nobody got time for that. 

there is no hopium like silver hopium

I was addicted to that shit for years man

It's hard to tell if Bitmain will blow up or not.  They're selling their Antminer T15 for $840 right now.  How much money do you think they actually need to sell that for to make a profit (also factoring in all R&D, failed chip tapeouts and everything else)?  What if they make profit on every unit sold for over $100-200 or something retardedly low?  

Yea, they lost their shirts on Bcash, but if their cost of production for these stupid ASICs is something miniscule, it seems like it would be hard to go bankrupt.  I also believe a lot of their company budget is spent attempting to try and rig the bitcoin price upwards, and they probably do experience some losses doing that, so that also factors in.

Also... *40* fucking years cup and handle? WTF?!

Good job #1 cutting the prices off your chart and #2 not adjusting for inflation over 80 year period.

I'm sure he will modify his narrative slightly to fit the current situation. If Bitmain and Bitfinex go belly up,(which I hope they do) some other manipulative, greedy slimebags will fill in the niche.

A specter is haunting the modern world, the specter of crypto anarchy.

Who could have possibly guessed the zionist kike in the thread would *gasp* tell lies to try and trick the goyim from acquiring real money at the floor and instead attempt to persuade them into buying imaginary, valueless digital tokens instead?  They are pretty much out of room for further metals manipulation to the downside in the long view, but short term, unsustainable tricks are always possible:

That's some serious cathodling power

How comes the feral cats haven't been able to socialize? Maybe they were already adult ferals? Were the two socialized ones also feral before?

I mean.... maybe some had a more social character or were more adaptable than others?

I got my cat from the street but she was only around 4 months old so I guess that helped socialise her. It is a pretty intelligent cat, it behaves in many ways like a dog... She knows and reacts to several different orders and when she was younger I would throw paper balls and she would go get em back to me (rarely does it anymore for unknown reasons).

Yeah, 2018 has been a nightmare as much as 2017 was an awesome dream. Let's just hope 2019 will be a good year and 2020 even better!

You don't wanna be stuck in the same place ten years from now roach.

As I've said before, the price of bitcoin entirely revolves around a single entity on the fraudulent exchange Bitfinex rigging the price, so it can go to two cents or a trillion dollars a coin each any second because there is no aggregate market and no real price discovery, just fraud and cooking the books.  Having said that, this entity on Bitfinex (unless it's someone like the ESF or Goldman/JPMorgan) is probably connected to Bitmain.

Is Bitmain getting close to imploding?  It appears so, and then the upward price manipulation could vanish, or maybe some Chinese lender will prop them up.  The manipulation from $200 to $20,000 was to the upside 90% of the time and not downside, so removing Bitmain from the equation might be the end of the pump and dump party unless a random new pump and dumper like Barry Silbert or Tim Draper steps in.  They'd probably be scared of getting their asses handed to them from not controlling the market like Bitmain does, though.

As for what the bottom is?  It's too hard to tell because if some huge mining entity like Bitmain does go bankrupt, it can implode the pseudo, temporary cost of production floor much further, and the fact they were probably the entity rigging the price upwards on Bitfinex as well would make it even more catastrophic.  So yea, bitcoin is basically just a giant, Chinese pump and dump scam right now, which everyone in this thread already knows but attempts to avoid talking about it to not hurt their "investment".

Silver is just another shitcoin, but slower.  

Maybe it will have another pump and dump in a 100 years' time.

Silver bubble continues to break downwards from blow off top in 2011 (when Roach bought the top because he’s dumb and greedy).  

Edit: Good support at $5 / ounce so price due to fall another 66% then stabilize

Very sad news, Tim May was a great man.