In my opinion, there are very major fuck-ups on the horizon.
The Interest rate hikes will blow up everything. The whole system will collapse. Banks won't be able to provide cash. People will lose all their savings in banks.
If they don't raise the rates, It will be hyperinflation then. The whole system will collapse anyway. This time asset prices will do full moon. GOLD= $10k. A loaf of potato = $50. People will die of starvation.
They can't pick their poison.
Banks will go poof!. People will panic. People will seek a mobile asset which they can spend easily which is also a store of value. That's not gold because it is not mobile.
We all know what it is.
BTC will be $100k, maybe even $250k but it will also bring a world war along with it. Then partying in Amsterdam won't look like a bright idea.
Something has got to give... the music has got to stop at somepoint, infinite bond market bull mode and high yields are unsustainable.
I mean that QE stimulus buying of the bonds and propping up the demand is keeping the price of the bonds up and stimulating demand, but is also keeping the yield low.
I mean that they are effectively borrowing from peter to pay paul.
I mean that the current situation is not sustainable in its current state, not in the US, not in Japan, UK, Canada, not in Eurozone at large but especially Portugal, Italy, France, Spain, Greece, and also as it goes not in China it seems either.
I mean that propping up the markets and the bond markets cannot go on forever.
However I also mean removing the stimulus will increase the supply of bonds on the open market, and due to less buying at real levels, and increased supply there will be less demand and the prices will fall, which will lead to the yields on the treasuires having to increase to entice demand, and they can only go so high for so long and be "sustainable" for a government, once you get over 7% you are on rocky ground. Conversley the higher the demand for the bond on the open market, the higher the price of the bond, and the lower the effective yield is.
I also mean that low interest rate cheap easy money cannot go on for ever, and weaning the system off of this meddling will have consequences.
I mean that the debt is out of control, and "printing" out of it has never worked out that well for any country.
I mean that the underlying base of our monetary system is flawed.
I mean that as is the nature of the beast there are cycles, and we are due a down cycle, and I do not think the piper has yet been paid for the past 20 years worth of recklessness.
I mean that eventually the music always stops, as it always does, and people rush to perceived safety...there is a risk people see US bonds (Jpy Bonds etc) are more risky than in the past (safer than many things still though, for now at least) there is a risk that they are just less attractive to investors.
I mean that investors and nations might already be holding too much US denominated debt...and be having their own problems.
I mean we are not alone on this world and our economies are all interlinked, and that the games being played which are systemic, will have systemic consequences when it goes wrong.
I mean that a nation will eventually if they keep playing this game without addressing the underlying problems, default, when there is not enough money to take from peter to give to paul. (maybe that is the whole idea)
I mean that things go wrong (or maybe even right as the case may prove to be)
I mean that perpetual debt growth in the manner we have seen in the west in the past 20-30 years is insane.
I mean that confidence in the current system is in question.
I mean we are being played like violins...
I mean that these games invariably lead to consequences for the average joe, no matter how they pan out, be it crash or contraction.
I mean that either the problems need to be addressed, and therefore some has given, or the consequences will have to be paid, which will also mean something has given, or they need to change all of the rules...and the system itself which again means something has given.
I mean there will need to be changes... because the situation cannot carry on in this manner, and there will likely be some pain no matter how it goes down.
I mean there is time and there is timing... but there is also kicking the can down the road, in the face of total uncertainty on how to resolve the issues at hand... they are not in a hurry, and therefore are likely to not do anything that soon.. meanwhile people and other countires grow impatient and have designs of their own. Maybe forced evolution will be the answer.
I mean..
The universe is racing towards heat death.
Still on track then
)
