Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1244. (Read 26731580 times)

Explanation
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Explanation
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you are welcome

 

Explanation
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Maybe just in sum the guy is wrong and does not seem to know what he is talking about since if his expected income is between $75k and $150, then with a 4% withdrawal rate he would ONLY need between $2 million and $4million.

This is how it goes for a 4% withdrawal rate:

$1 million = $3,333 per month and $40k per year

$2 million = $6,666 per month and $80k per year

$3 million = $10k per month and $120k per year

$4 million = $13,333 per month and $160k per year

$5 million = $16,666 per month and $200k per year

If his money is in BTC, with the 200-WMA, he would only need 64 BTC to reach the $2 million and then if he is ONLY withdrawing at 4%, the dollar value of his holdings is likely going to grow faster than his withdrawal of the BTC, so the BTC will keep up with inflation.. but yeah, he would have to have enough BTC in order to start such a process, and if he is in dollars and dollar-related investments, he might need closer to $4million to make sure that his investments keep up... but I doubt that he needs $5million, unless he is trying to cushion for increases in his income.. which surely in terms of dollars we are likely going to need into the future.. so we might have to take that into account if we are exercising a 4% withdrawal rate.

so youre the guy i bought from at 49 and 51k lol

Explanation
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Below is only peripherally related, posting mostly for giggles:

https://www.reddit.com/r/SuccessionTV/comments/k08dbs/five_million_is_a_nightmare/

$5 million is a nightmare ??..a fuzzy logic there, but I understand the thesis:
"too much to keep working on a middle class salary and too little to be completely free as far as your spending is concerned".

I sold some

 At
48
49
50
51
52

little pieces.

Can now hodl til 60 k

will sell three little pieces then
60k
65k
70k

then hodl past 100k

Ah ya Bljatcoinerista ignoranta fetalis.

You think that they do not "buy" Bljatcoins because they do not understand Bljatkojn.. They do not buy it because they understand FULLY! Not expecting anyone prone to gambling and bljatcoins would understand.. It will have serious negative implications down the line in the timeline. Maybe even affecting your infentile lil being in your lifetime.. not to say what catastrophic effects will it have on your Offsprings.
But carry on. Ignorance is Bliss

EVERYTHING IS CONNECTED.

You said it, and we disagree.

One thing is measuring the wealth and then another thing is to have various management strategies around that, whether it is just holding your coins, raking small or large portions and/or sustainable withdrawal methods.

How you value your wealth might affect some of the methods/strategies more than other methods of strategies.

Maybe if you are holding for the long term, then you just wait for certain price points to sell some or all of your BTC, then that would be a kind of raking strategy.

Or if you believe you never have to sell any BTC because you will just earn money off of it or use it for collateral, then there is nothing wrong with that strategy, as an alternative to raking and/or sustainable withdrawal..


Yes, your wealth and your liquid wealth are going to change based on various changes, and if something is more liquid then you have options to sell or buy more of it, but it does not necessarily mean that you are going to exercise such power, even though by definition the more liquid it is, the more you are able to accomplish such selling relatively quickly  so you can consider the changes in your wealth based on BTC spot price changes and realizing that you can cash out at any time,. but if you are not fucking around in that direction, then it seems better to measure it with something more solid, like the 200-WMA .. .. and you can keep both concepts in mind at the same time, if you want to .. why would it have to be all or nothing... you can even divide your stash in different kinds of ways, including putting in various barriers in order to make parts of your BTC stash less liquid... but if you know that you hold the keys, then you likely will have more power over assuring that you hold the value versus if you hold some (if not all) of your cornz with a 3rd party custodian, and you might even erroneously count the value of those coins the same, which maybe for all intents and purposes they end up being pretty much the same.



AlcoHoDL was talking about 4x to 5X spot price, so we were not really talking so much about 4x to 5x the 200-WMA, even though the formulas of my sustainable withdrawal system contemplate authorizing higher levels of withdrawal (advance withdrawal) based on how high the spot price is above the 200WMA.  From the website:  https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

>>>>>>A. if the BTC spot price is between 33% and 66% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + an additional month.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 66% and 100% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 3 additional months.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 100% and 200% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 5 additional months.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 200% and 400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 11 additional months.
E. if the BTC spot price is between 400% and 650% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 23 additional months.
F. if the BTC spot price is between 650% and 900% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 35 additional months.
G. if the BTC spot price is between 900% and 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 47 additional months.
H. if the BTC spot price is greater than 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 59 additional months.<<<<<<

So you see that 400% to 650% above the 200-WMA allows the withdrawal of 23 months in advance.

Each person can choose whether and how to play these kinds of suggested ways to manage your BTC holdings..


I think that we are not really talking about BTC accumulation.  That's another story... and we are not talking about trading either.. even though sometimes maintenance and management of holdings can sometimes appear to be similar to trading.... yet I wouldn't consider it in that way.

I think with these kinds of tools and even with AlcoHoDL's presumptions, we are largely talking about managing our holdings and then setting budgets for ourselves to shave off some of our BTC from time to time, and maybe even considering ways to NOT shave off too many cornz at once.

DCA and accumulation is another story. and not completely unrelated, but we have a bit of a presumption that we have already accumulated enough BTC and maybe even more than enough BTC... .

Snd maybe shortly talking about DCA and accumulation, I frequently suggest that newbies attempt to be as aggressive as they can in their BTC accumulation journey without overdoing it, so that could be a combination of DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips, and then once they get to enough BTC accumulation (or even over doing their accumulation levels) then they might have more options, however, if they have ONLY been in bitcoin a short period of time, they might need to allow some time to pass before they are ready to transition into something that might be characterized as maintenance and/or liquidation.. ..

but even before they get to any kind of a strict liquidation phase, they might still need to spend some time in a kind of maintenance stage that might still allow for both accumulation BTC along the way and perhaps liquidate some of the their holdings too, and a maintenance stage might still emphasize on one side or the other (on the accumulation side or on the liquidation side) or maybe it is neutral in which it is trying to maintain some kind of dollar value that is pegged to something  (and might that not be the 200-WMA?), which then we might thereby get back to figuring out valuations and how we might want to peg our value, so if might enter into fuck-you status at a $2 million valuation, then we might allow our valuation to grow and maybe our value floats between $2 million and $4 million in terms of the 200-WMA valuation, and maybe we end up trying to keep our valuation in the middle of that range (meaning keeping our value held in BTC at $3 million in light of the 200-WMA), yet the whole time we might continue to withdrawal on a monthly basis or some other regularity until we keep the BTC value within our preferred range and maybe that ends up being right around $3million like I said, even if we might have had entered at $2 million  .  and, yeah, maybe I am making it too complicated by upwardly adjusting the number and allowing growth of value.. but there might not be any need for the value of the holdings to continue to grow beyond the $2 million entry valuation point,;..

Maybe instead, once the guy considers that he has reached entry-level fuck you status at $2 million, he withdraws in accordance with just trying to keep his 200-WMA valuation right around $2 million on an ongoing basis, and maybe he only gives himself a $100k buffer on either end.  There are all kinds of discretionary choices that guys can make in terms of if they are still wanting their fund to grow while they are withdrawing or if they want to make it stable and then maybe later in life they might start to draw down on principle, especially if they might be considering that their life is coming to an end or other reasons to draw down on principle.

 I am still going to argue that it is way better to be using the 200-WMA rather than spot price for these kinds of longer term maintenance and management of BTC holdings valuations, but if you have some other system that involves BTC spot price that floats your boat, then so be it, yet I don't think that spot price serves very well in that regard, especially in bitcoinlandia from my own perspective and my own presentation of tools that help to navigate BTC valuations and portfolio management in light of 200-WMA valuations that I consider to be much more reliable in order to measure from more or less bottoms rather than tops (or the all over the place of spot price that is inevitable to keep going crazily up and crazily down for the next 10-20 years or longer,

and if the BTC spot price becomes more stable, I might choose adjust my thinking on the topic (though I doubt it.. especially since it is not likely to become more stable in the next 10-20 years so why concede that in advance), otherwise why not stick with some way of valuating dee cornz that we already know (by definition) to be way the fuck more consistent and stable?  which is the 200-WMA. Why do we want to create drama and stress upon ourselves when we have a killer-ass tool that has a lot of power in its usability for anyone who is ready, willing and/or able to learn how to do it.. rather than just whining about what if bitcoin prices go from $50k to $20k and then to $100k in a day.. yeah, and maybe you are arguing my point with your lame-ass example about how the BTC price is all over the place, and the 200-WMA is hardly going to move during that whole process.. It may well just continue to trickle up around $33 per day (currently)...

and yeah, maybe the BIGGEST fear would be that the BTC spot price goes down rather than UP.. because we already have prepared for UP, and if the BTC price goes down to $20k and then just gets stuck there.. then what? We maybe cannot sell any BTC until the BTC price gets back within less than 30% below the 200-WMA.. My tool has formulas to account for those kinds of variables, too.

>>>>A) if the BTC spot price is between 10% and 25% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 90% of the current month's limit.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 10% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 85% of the current month's limit.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 20% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 70% of the current month's limit.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 20% and 30% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 50% of the current month's limit.
E. if the BTC spot price is greater than 30% and 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 40% of the current month's limit.
F. if the BTC spot price is greater than 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be not be authorized to withdraw any BTC from the budget.<<<<<

If you don't like those suggestions in regards to how to manage your holdings (presumptively already in fuck you status or some variation in which you are already able to do some kind of a sustainable withdrawal of coins), then you can do something else. 

I know that I had already had a portion of my BTC holdings already following some variation of the above formula in late 2022 and early 2023.. and the sales were very small.. and most likely there were other aspects of the budget that were buyig way more than selling.  It is kind of reflected in the hypothetical 21 BTC budget chart posted on this post that might need to be updated at some point.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

The purpose of my post was to convey that in my opinion it is strange to think of 200 wma as a measure of wealth, that's all.
You can design your buy/sell strategy off of that if you want..and you do, but it says almost nothing about your current liquid wealth, that's all or almost all that I had to say in my original post. Talking about 4X or 5X of 200WMA...that's just pure numerology, imho.

If someone wants to DCA-sure, go ahead, but without paying almost any attention to the 200 wma.
In fact, if you want to time it, the play around the good old 50day/200day averages (golden cross or a death cross) is much more valuable.

you are getting really good at this...thanks

+7 WOsMerits


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+1 WOsMerit


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+1 WOsMerit


is this the complaint department?  if so do i have to pick a number?   anyway....since 2013 was a UP year....and while we dont know what all of 2024 has yet to bring...it is UP right now...
so i was thinking maybe the GREEN and red should be reversed?  with GREEN highlighting the years instead of red
additionally...the lower left to upper right trend would also be represented 


ok ill shut up now 

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the noon wall report


dyor


D



W

stronghands

 Sorry JJG.

Explanation
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It is not meaningless.  It is a way to measure the bottom, so that you may well be able to attempt to make plans about it.

Yes, you can also use BTC spot price, yet do we need to argue about how crazy it fluctuates?

In the end, there are likely a variety of ways to establish a cushion, and if you want to put your default entry-level fuck you status at a higher level, then that might be your way of dealing with such volatility, to the extent that you might be keeping most of your value in BTC rather than cashing out when you reach such perceived status.


I already have a system to deal with it, and so there is an expectation that BTC prices will generally average above the 200 WMA by around 25% or more, and so yeah every once in a while the BTC price goes below the 200-WMA, but there are still presumptions about that not holdings.. unless something changes, and the incredibly good news has already happened so the BTC price is already expected to go up to $100k, it is just a matter of when rather than placing much if any weight on a timeline.. especially a short timeline...

so yeah, if I don't fight too much with your hypothetical it would be a bit surprising to go up 2x in one day, but not totally outside of expectations and/or BTC historical happenings.. and sometimes going a bit beyond extreme.. and even getting 3.5x in a few months could end up happening, so that takes BTC prices to right around $180k... and I am not even sure if that is outside of possibilities, even though it would likely be quite shocking and cause some extra reactions, but guys like me already have some preparations for those kinds of scenarios.. sure admittedly my sell orders currently ONLY go up to $150k, but I would be able to fairly easily place additional sell orders between $150k and $500k.

Same with going down to $20k, I have buy orders going down to $20k, but I would probably get nervious if the BTC price got down to $30k within a few hours, and I would probably pull my buy orders between $20k and $30k, even though I am ready to let them ride down to $30k without making any adjustments.

So surely there could be a lot of depression if the BTC price goes down and refuses to come back up or goes to zero, and those are not non-zero possibilities, but they are pretty damned close to zero. and so we likely are going to be making our base case plans around more likely scenarios rather than making them around outlier scenarios... so if something is expected to have 1% or 2% odds, then we plan 1% to 2% for those things to happen, and yeah, we are not always going to be right, and there are ways to plan for outside scenarios while still mostly be preparing for the more likely base case scenarios.. and so there are some ways to hedge bets, if you had not realized that.


I don't see what purpose your advice is having here?   except maybe an attempt to patronize... since it seems that you should sufficiently understand why a lagging indicator might be preferable  to spot price when it comes to long term investing, but instead you seem to be wanting to argue for the mere sake of it... you can look at both spot price and various kinds of moving averages at the same time, and you can compare those moving averages, and my own system of sustainable withdraw looks at both spot price and 200-WMA in order to make various kinds of assessments for sustainable withdrawal, and any one who is willing to use such tool is free to incorporate those kinds of principles, and it is just a tool that can be considered as an option.. and it might be supplemented by raking tools and other tools, so everyone is responsible for their own valuation ideas and how to act upon such ideas in regards to managing their BTC holdings.


Ouch!!!!  That would hurt to have something like that.  Thank god it's not Thursday.

 I guess it does look a little more relevant to the thread this way but if it were Thursday, I would have made it even more relevant with some choice words on the now-empty axis.

#no homo