Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1246. (Read 26707825 times)
January 14, 2024, 02:01:16 PM
January 14, 2024, 01:45:15 PM
ETFs are in.
To the disappointed bulls:
We are so early!
#GNhaiku
To the disappointed bulls:
We are so early!
#GNhaiku
January 14, 2024, 01:22:07 PM
Exactly three lines
must cut a long story short
or it's no #haiku
#meta-haiku
must cut a long story short
or it's no #haiku
#meta-haiku
January 14, 2024, 01:07:18 PM
We don't need to be worried about an AI that's going to fuck over humanity.
We have politicians that fuck over humanity every single day, like it's their job, and they actually get paid the big bucks for it.
Annnd people actually vote and re-elect these same fuckers into power every few years.
We have politicians that fuck over humanity every single day, like it's their job, and they actually get paid the big bucks for it.
Annnd people actually vote and re-elect these same fuckers into power every few years.
While the highlighted sentences above are true, the dangers of an advanced AI becoming sentient and taking control are unknown and should be expected to be orders of magnitude greater.
We do need to be worried about it!
I'm still thinking after (human made or initiated) developments we didn't worry about in the first place and did not cause us huge problems afterwards.
You're free to participate, i couldn't remember any, yet.
The thing is that a sentient AI is something we've never experienced before, so there is no real precedent to refer to. To dismiss the dangers it can bring to humans is naive to say the least.
Exactly.
Humans just suck at economics, in the way of evaluating possible unwanted side- and longterm effects when planning to change parameters in a complex system. We're still just too much ape. Humans generally want to achieve something, but care less what they could fuck up by doing so (or: achieve what they didn't expect).
Nuclear fission was a great idea, offering a lot of possibilities, but nobody was looking at systematic consequences. We were way too optimistic, we are most times.
It's a lack of ability of networked thinking, we're still in the linear phase of the evolution of mind.
While the highlighted sentences above are true, the dangers of an advanced AI becoming sentient and taking control are unknown and should be expected to be orders of magnitude greater.
We do need to be worried about it!
We?
Does "we" include very (small elitist) group actively pursuing and making this AI shit and unleashing it on the world? Because they don't seem to care. Like at all.
Maybe take it up with them? Lol.
(Sorry, not trying to snark, but "concerned people" always seem to have the ire misplaced toward the wrong group. They always want to make it "the plebs problem")
The need to feel special is (almost) above all in a civilized human's life, at least as we know it.
These "elitists" also need something they can achieve to feel valuable. "Look mom, no hands!" (Good boy, have a cookie!)
Behind all that it's the Dopamine, it's what our brains crave for. Nobody has learned to take care how to balance and sustain Dopamine levels, so we're used to ramp it up, let it fall down, to ramp it up again. There's a little more to it, but i'm fucking tired and that's when i suck at explaining things, too. But you should get the idea to get a glance under the surface of human existence.
January 14, 2024, 01:02:05 PM
R.I.P.
Joyce Randolph = Trixie of the honeymooners.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/14/obituaries/joyce-randolph-dead.html
She was 99.
Hell my grandparents are long gone. But they would be.
137
127. on my dads side
124
118 on my moms side.
my dad would be 102
my mom would be 95
shit 67 in a little bit.
time marches on.
Joyce Randolph = Trixie of the honeymooners.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/14/obituaries/joyce-randolph-dead.html
She was 99.
Hell my grandparents are long gone. But they would be.
137
127. on my dads side
124
118 on my moms side.
my dad would be 102
my mom would be 95
shit 67 in a little bit.
time marches on.
January 14, 2024, 01:01:21 PM
January 14, 2024, 12:48:09 PM
some proposals for a new poll:
Which BTC price will be reached first, 50k or 40k? $40k
What is the Bitcoin price at halving date? c. $45k
What is the highest Bitcoin price until halving date? $50k
Will we have new ATH before halving? No
Which BTC price will be reached first, 50k or 40k? $40k
What is the Bitcoin price at halving date? c. $45k
What is the highest Bitcoin price until halving date? $50k
Will we have new ATH before halving? No
Guesses above.
January 14, 2024, 12:34:22 PM
Good morn Bitcoinland.
From here in Quintana Roo,
Sunny Mexico.
Got a nasty cold...
Too much air conditioning
Because of heat wave.
Plus bad connection
So no posting in a week.
It's much better now.
Got a good chuckle
From the ETF nonsense.
It was quite funny.
Flapping up and down
Right back to where it started.
Up on year to date.
One coin is one coin.
That is what really matters.
Slow and steady's good.
From here in Quintana Roo,
Sunny Mexico.
Got a nasty cold...
Too much air conditioning
Because of heat wave.
Plus bad connection
So no posting in a week.
It's much better now.
Got a good chuckle
From the ETF nonsense.
It was quite funny.
Flapping up and down
Right back to where it started.
Up on year to date.
One coin is one coin.
That is what really matters.
Slow and steady's good.
January 14, 2024, 12:24:47 PM
Cathy Wood says..btc could be at 1.5mil by 2030 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5NB8MHe3Nw), which is almost 40X in 7 years.
This assumes that btc growth rate in the next 7 years would be roughly the same as in the last 7 (as bitcoin is roughly 40X from 7 years ago).
All by itself, it is EXACTLY what means that the asset is in an exponential growth phase (and not log-log).
Personally, I feel that chances for this, without rampaging inflation, are maybe 20-30%, but I favor a much smaller number, maybe 500-600K by 2030 (that would still mean 42-47% average yearly ROI, which is at least 3X that of Nasdaq).
This assumes that btc growth rate in the next 7 years would be roughly the same as in the last 7 (as bitcoin is roughly 40X from 7 years ago).
All by itself, it is EXACTLY what means that the asset is in an exponential growth phase (and not log-log).
Personally, I feel that chances for this, without rampaging inflation, are maybe 20-30%, but I favor a much smaller number, maybe 500-600K by 2030 (that would still mean 42-47% average yearly ROI, which is at least 3X that of Nasdaq).
O.k. I will bite.
The actual number from the 200-week moving average is that in November 2016 it was $389 and in November 2023, it was $29,049 - which is about a 75x increase over the last 7 years not a 40x.
As far as the future 200-WMA, my chart shows $146,825 for November 2030, which is about a 5x increase over the next 7 years.
Both you and I have agreed that my future numbers from that chart seem to be fairly conservative, but I personally am not willing to adjust them up.
And, by the way, I don't know how any of us can be or should be relying upon spot price in order to make predictions. Yeah, sure we want to know what the BTC spot price is going to do, but the BTC spot price has tended to be all over the place, and whether we rely upon the 20-week moving average (6 months-ish), or 50-week moving average(1 year-ish), 100-week moving average (2 years-ish) or the 200-week moving average (4 years-ish), the more weeks (or the longer the timeframe) the more accurate it is likely to be in terms of weeding out a lot of the noisy and short-term spikey movements.
Another thing is that historically the BTC price has mostly been above the 200-week moving average, and sometimes BTC spot price has gone up 15x higher than the 200-week moving average (such as in 2017); however in 2021, it had only gone up around 4.5x higher than the 200-WMA.... so maybe in the end, we are saying similar things (you can quickly look up the difference between BTC spot price and the 200-WMA for any particular date in the last 13 years (back to mid-2010) on this site.)
Edited: added link to look up the difference between BTC spot price and the 200-week moving average.
She did not say the word "average" and neither did i...and today is not November 2023..haha, but I get your point.
It's just different styles...I focus on a spot price (since I don't engage in buy/sell "campaigns") and you focus on averages since you like to do it in small increments.
Suffice it to say, it is entirely possible that bitcoin will be both $600K and $147K, as per your chart, during late 2030-early 2031 (~7 years).
If I would be selling a snippet, I would prefer to do it at 600K and not 147K (in about seven years)
.EDIT: BTW, although it is entirely possible that bitcoin would be at $147K in 2030-2031, we all expect at least doubling of the ATH this time around (to ~$140K) and that would mean a major bitcoin depression or two somewhere between 2025 and 2031 and possibly even no new ATH in 2028 or 2029. I would "hate" to see this.
January 14, 2024, 12:13:24 PM
We don't need to be worried about an AI that's going to fuck over humanity.
We have politicians that fuck over humanity every single day, like it's their job, and they actually get paid the big bucks for it.
Annnd people actually vote and re-elect these same fuckers into power every few years.
We have politicians that fuck over humanity every single day, like it's their job, and they actually get paid the big bucks for it.
Annnd people actually vote and re-elect these same fuckers into power every few years.
While the highlighted sentences above are true, the dangers of an advanced AI becoming sentient and taking control are unknown and should be expected to be orders of magnitude greater.
We do need to be worried about it!
We?
Does "we" include very (small elitist) group actively pursuing and making this AI shit and unleashing it on the world? Because they don't seem to care. Like at all.
Maybe take it up with them? Lol.
(Sorry, not trying to snark, but "concerned people" always seem to have the ire misplaced toward the wrong group. They always want to make it "the plebs problem")
January 14, 2024, 12:01:16 PM
January 14, 2024, 11:01:20 AM
January 14, 2024, 10:07:55 AM
gm
didnt do a cross comparison between models but Bard had this to say...not bad...
i still recommend reading the book as it covers some of the political aspects in much more detail
ive been watching this guy recently...seems to cover quite a bit in the AI space...very good imo
Wes Roth - Open Interpreter 2.0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqyGDXYuwFk
dyor
didnt do a cross comparison between models but Bard had this to say...not bad...
i still recommend reading the book as it covers some of the political aspects in much more detail
ive been watching this guy recently...seems to cover quite a bit in the AI space...very good imo
Wes Roth - Open Interpreter 2.0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqyGDXYuwFk
dyor
January 14, 2024, 10:01:19 AM
January 14, 2024, 09:02:02 AM
Beautiful roads lead to beautiful destinations.
Photo credit. Watche
Photo credit. Watche
Beautiful indeed.
Is that your cock?
I say, Isn't that a bit forward sir?
January 14, 2024, 09:01:27 AM
some proposals for a new poll:
Since you posted on 12 Jan and if I look at 12 Jan chart then my answers would be:
Which BTC price will be reached first, 50k or 40k? 50k
What is the Bitcoin price at halving date? Next halving is expected in April 2024 and price could easily be > $100k
What is the highest Bitcoin price until halving date? $100k
Will we have new ATH before halving? $100k
What is the Bitcoin price at halving date? Next halving is expected in April 2024 and price could easily be > $100k
What is the highest Bitcoin price until halving date? $100k
Will we have new ATH before halving? $100k
I believe if we cross previous ATH ($67.5k) then next ATH will be above $100k.
January 14, 2024, 09:01:16 AM
January 14, 2024, 08:01:16 AM
January 14, 2024, 07:52:16 AM
January 14, 2024, 07:20:17 AM
Beautiful roads lead to beautiful destinations.
Photo credit. Watche
Photo credit. Watche
Beautiful indeed.
Is that your cock?
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