Furthermore, I do not have any strong presumptions that the BTC price is going down, and I especially think that any targeting of $2,200 would be quite pie in the sky, even though there is a chance that such price could happen.. maybe less than 5% (concedingly that such odds of $2,200 are a bit higher now as compared with last week, but they still remain pretty low, in my humble bumble opinion).
I would wager a guess that your 5% chance has grown to a higher percentage now of likelihood?
You are correct... I had asserted less than 5% odds to reach $2,200.
When certain support lines break, then odds change, so my current armchair estimate would allow for perhaps up to a 20% chance for that below $2,200 target of yours.. 20% might be a bit generous, but just to concede that calculations can change quite a bit when the price is moving a lot (and support or resistance is broken).