Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1274. (Read 26730857 times)

Goodmorning

And I have to say…

Talking and reading about how to handle UP are way more fun as DOWN.

Oh, we need just another buddy.

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
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All Credit to ChartBuddy

Explanation
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I hope you are not proposing a ramen dump at halving?  
got a tired of the dumps around each halving  ..seems though it might be gox this time  

Ah!  Who can sleep at such an historic time for bitcoin?

 

Explanation
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Explanation
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Explanation
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Well no man's zone is somewhere between around $55k and $82k, so sure there could be resistance around old ATH.. but not very likely.. dee cornz doesn't usually work like that... the main question is just if there had been enough consolidation prior to entering into no man's zone in order that there would be enough buy support to get through the whole zone without it failing ..so the likely resistance would be prior to entering noman's zone (which would be right around or below $55k-ish rather than existing after we have already entered the zone.

One particular concern would be that we went up to $49k and then corrected down to $38.5k and then ONLY spent a little bit of time around $42k/$43k and then pretty much shot straight up to our current lower $50ks, so there could be a question regarding whether we shot up too fast in order to get through no man's land once we enter.  I am not going to be surprised either way, but if I were a betting man, I would still suggest the the most resistance would be between around here and $55k rather than having resistance within the middle of noman's land including around the current ATH... within 5% to 10% of thre current ATH might be more accurately characterized as hot butter zone.


On the surface, unless I am just being too argumentative for the mere sake of it, those don't sound like the right kinds of categories to help to figure out how some of us might be managing our BTC holdings in differing kinds of ways.  Many of us are mostly HODLing bitcoin and surely when it comes to Phil and maybe some other folks, they are in and out and in and out, and they are not really allowing their bitcoin holdings to compound, so it reminds me of a trader, and sure maybe that is what you mean by that kind of mindset.


That does sound like Phillip, and traders tend to do that too, especially the ones who are living off their trades rather than having a separate income.  There is probably a certain amount of the stash of some folks (whether Philip or some other folks) in which they are not keeping them sufficiently separate and not building that separate investment stash.. so they are always dipping into it, even if they are still saying that they have a separate stash, they are not focused enough about that separate stash to continue to build it, even if they might do it in a whimpy way.. .

So even if we go with our wimpy investor who mostly buys 20 BTC and mostly sits on it, but if ever year or so, he is still buying some extra BTC on the dips and engaging in other kinds of additive measures, he may well end up increasing his stash by 50% or more over the next 5-8 years.. .even if those subsequent bitcoin (10 or 15 more BTC) ended up costing way more than the initial 20 BTC... so that would still be a better practice than the guy who keeps dipping into his BTC every year..


Yep.. some of these guys who are fucking around with the cycle like that may well end up getting eaten up a bit more than necessary... especially if they are playing around with large parts of their stash.. which is part of the justification to sell more increments as I try to present in my raking spreadsheet... and also to have not expectation to buy back.. which I also attempt to present, but people don't seem to believe me... so yeah, you can sell small enough amounts that you don't give any shits if you buy back,. but those amounts can still end up adding up and. you have flexibility if you buy back or not.

I am also excited about the current market situation. It is a thrilling time because we are getting close to ATH. There is a chance that the price could go up to $69000, which is really exciting. I am excited to see what happens and to celebrate the market's growth and success. Cheers to an exciting future! And I sure the antibitcoiners are regretting and beating their heads and after ATH they will regret on their words.

 ...and on that note, I think it's a good time for bed.  Good night ChartBuddy!  I love you  

Explanation
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I’ve been watching people post their order numbers as they get their VIN numbers. As far as I can tell, I’m about 200,000 orders away from being able to purchase the Foundation Series model (more than half way). No idea how many more of those they will make, but I’ve been told the order conversion rate to those trucks is less than 5%, so there’s still a small chance I could get one this year. More likely though, the gods will smile upon me and my Cybertruck will be ready for delivery around Bitcoin’s next all time high in the summer of 2025.

Surely how strict you choose to be is likely a matter of preference, and sometimes we might not know exactly how the BTC prices and our stash size is going to play out, but if we put some kind of a tentative plan in place, then of course, we are in a better place to tweak it rather than if we have no plan at all or if we wing it with a play-it-by ear, loosey goosey outline of a tentative plan.

And, even if we believe that we might have a somewhat strict plan that has certain parameters and certain expectations, if we end up not following it strictly or maybe having some lose ends that end up starting to move against us, then there can be some disadvantages in having some of those lose ends, especially since we know that the BTC price can end up moving fast and then end up catching us off guard in one direction or the other.. so how strict is too strict and how lax is too lax is a matter of interpretation and perhaps better informed by experience (as you suggested).  

I have probably had regrets at various points in each cycle in regards to some of the ways that I structure my various sells and some of my buys, but the system that I have really does put me in a pretty strong place of comfort even when some of the mistakes are being felt, there still can be quite a bit of zooming out in order to really be able to see that some of the parts that might seem bad or might seem less than preferable are still pretty damned good in the whole scheme of things when measuring the plusses as compared to the minuses, and surely some of that has to do with designing a system that errors on the side of accumulating and HODLing, and so far king daddy has performed quite well to satisfy, reward and not to punish very badly as long as us HODLers are mostly erroring in that direction.

Of course, there could be ways to look back and to second guess, but then some of those can become learning experiences - such as if I might have a system that sells on the way up and then buys on the way down, but if I don't sell enough or I buy back too soon, then there can be feelings of just wheel spinning and wasting a bunch of time without much change in the value of the holdings, after account for time and also accounting for various fees that can sometimes start to add up.

As far as your assessment of the current status of this particular cycle, I agree that it is feeling to be more bullish than usual, and just logistically, it seems to be difficult to understand from where all the coins are going to come, and yeah they are getting put into inferior products in which single entities are going to control a lot of coins.. so some of that can be scary even though at the same time our bags are inevitably going to get pumped in ways that we may well not be prepared for. .. so surely some guys are going to end up selling way too many of their coins too soon and maybe even experiencing a relatively great payoff in dollars, but they may well not really be advantaged by holding as many dollars as they end up holding, so surely we have to be careful regarding how we make our own calculations regarding whether to sell, how much to sell and how to valuate our sales..

And by the way, I cannot completely agree with you about the idea of just taking out as many dollars as we need because frequently we are better off to be trying to value at least in both dollars and bitcoin, future value versus present value.. and I still think that there are still so many ways that guys can go wrong by getting caught up in BTC spot price valuations,

and I am going to keep pumping the sustainable withdrawal tool and even the raking tool, even though the sustainable withdrawal tool seems to attempt to juxtapose spot price with 200-week moving average and the raking tool tries to account for just mere price movements that can also sometimes become outrageous, and we might feel that we under withdraw if we do not just plan to withdraw at various points along the way, and just work out the details later (whether we buy back or we just hang on to the various fiat that we end up cashing out).

We can get some frameworks for figuring out these kinds of matters and if we happen to have 94 BTC (maybe average price of $1k per BTC or maybe lower, but does it matter?) and we shave off along the way:

2 BTC at $92k,
2 BTC at $124k,
2 btc at $181k BTC,
2 BTC at $240k BTC,
2 BTC at $440k and
2 BTC at $780k,

we are not really even very prejudiced by the whole matter of selling some of our BTC at various cheaper price points because if the BTC price goes shooting up to $1 million and has no real correction, even in this scenario,  we still have 82 BTC, to figure out what we are going to do with the remainder of them, and so we can hypothesize what that particular kind of selling on the way up scenario looks like and compare it to other possible scenarios, including that in the process of going up from $54k to $1 million, maybe the BTC price does not make it as high as we anticipated, so we could end up having a back-up plan that might shave a chunk of BTC at a certain price point - especially once we figure out that the price may or may not be going up further, and then let the matter ride out (and maybe we are wrong and maybe not?), and I personally feel quite a bit better to be employing BTC selling on the way up rather than waiting to see if the BTC price tops or where it might top when it is really difficult to figure out, even if it seems that all of the stars are aligned.. .and surely there is still power in having various supplemental plans at various points along the way and to have some flexibility, even if there might be some roughness and some flexibility built in to some of the strictness that might also already be in place within our plan.


This is not a good sign.

BBunny has turned anti-woman.

Snap out of it BBunny!!!!    

and Share some morale-raising pics.  

In my book, BBunny woman loving pics are way better than gay christmas cards.

Explanation
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It mostly comes down to whether you're a trader/gambler or a holder/investor.

I think that it depends on your mindset.
Are you in bitcoin to get more dollars (or euros)?
OR
Are you in bitcoin to increase your bitcoin (for the foreseeble future)?

If #1, then you would be prone to premature distributions.

Sell/buy: It looks easy on the paper, but very difficult to time both a sell and a re-buy even though @OgNasty thought that it is easy to sell/buy by just following the cycles.
Once you start to 100% believe in that scheme, it might bite you, not that I am against the existence of cycles-they were undeniable so far.

Are you getting that Tesla soon?

Buy on the way down and sell on the way up.. but don't sell too much on the way up, and also don't run out of fiat on the way down.  it is called this world that those kinds of things are done, and it also can be considered as a form of BTC portfolio maintenance that does not even attempt to time the market or to get emotional about the market, because the price comes to you rather than you going to the price.. what a lovely world that allows such a thing.. and it is called "the real world."  

As far as the back testing goes, there is no need for backtesting.. If you have an excel spreadsheet, you could just calculate how much BTC you want to sell at which price points and how much you want to buy at which price points.  Something similar to my raking formula or some variation of that, and if the BTC price goes to those pre-set price points you execute the orders and if the BTC price does not go to those price points then you do not execute anything.. there is no emotions involved because either the BTC price goes there or it does not..

And if you don't want to follow a raking system, there are likely some other systems that you could employ, especially if you are in profits, then you have quite a bit of discretion regarding how to treat your BTC holdings.


That sounds pretty dumb for someone who ONLY has around 1 BTC to be selling part of his BTC at $80k because he bought at $16k..  The guy is going to need more than just the fact that he is 4x in profits.  We need more details.  What is his income?  Is the guy still accumulating?  Is he accumulating BTC in order to get into dollars? What's his annual income?  Even if his annual income is $10k per year, $80k would ONLY be 8x his annual salary... I question scenarios in which $80k would be enough.. and even if the guy had 2 BTC, that is $160k, that also seems like there would not be too many scenarios in which that would be enough.. but hey.. sure add some facts to flesh this out besides a mere assertion that his seemingly fairly whimpy holdings are 4x in profits.

Don't get me wrong.  I am not trying to suggest that 1 BTC might not be a lot in some circumstances, but it surely does not seem to be an amount that is worthy shaving off some of it absent some further facts to show why it might be justified.

Also don't get me wrong, you have discretion to do dumb things, but I need more than just the idea of buying at $16k and selling at $80k...

For example, if the guy started buying in 2021, and his annual salary was around $20k, and so maybe he bought $30k worth of bitcoin through out 2021 with an average cost per BTC of around $40k.. so he got around 0.75  BTC, and then maybe the next two years, he put together another $40k and he bought about another 1.5 BTC.. so then when he gets into this year, he is starting to feel overinvested... so maybe in those kinds of circumstances, he could justify starting to shave off parts of his BTC holdings... his total of 2.25 BTC cost him about $70k (average cost of about $31,100 per BTC) and they are currently worth about $117k, and so nearly 6x his salary, and since he got into his investment so rashly, he might even already be willing to start to shave off some of his holdings.. because he is feeling over exposed to BTC, but he still might not feel like he is in a position to really shave off a lot because he feels that he has enough BTC, but he need to bring more balance to his life because he's got most of his networth in BTC. .. and yeah, maybe he already has an emergency fund and other parts of his financial life in order so he might be able to just ride out the investment, but he might also want to start to structure either to stop buying so much or maybe to structure some small amounts of sales as the BTC price goes up..


I remember posting about it, and maybe I gave it less than 5% odds?  I cannot remember, exactly.  But now the odds are likely getting greater, and greater and greater, and maybe even approaching 40% or more.  

I would hate to give $100k prior to the halvening as having more than 50% odds, but it is feeling quite easy right now, but I just hate taking various kinds of bullish BTC price moves for granted, even if currently we are witnessing a lot of ongoing and persistent buy pressure on a lot of the exchanges/markets, and it could well be the case that BTC prices have to go up an additional 2x or 3x within the coming months (before the halvening?  I don't know) just to accommodate the current ongoing and persistent BTC buying pressures..

and many of us who have already stacked a lot of cornz over the years are way ahead of this game of financial institutions getting in, including that we front run a lot of these current BIGGER players.. and say if some of us might have gotten 20 BTC over the years, and then between $80k and $150k we could shave off 1 or 2 of those BTC and still be in pretty good shape... I personally am not saying that I have that many BTC or even claiming to having more than 0.63 BTC.. .. but I know a relatively whimpy WO member who has 20 BTC, and he says that he is waiting for BTC prices to get to $10 million before he is going to start shaving some of his previously thought to be whimpy BTC stash. .and I think he is somewhat against selling, so I am not sure if he even has any kind of exact plan.. and maybe there is no need to have any exact plan as long as the BTC are secured.. and .. .. so yeah.. results are going to vary between members, even in these here parts.


Exactly.. I was thinking of saying something very similar to OgNasty in the arena of claiming to not be a trader but instead buying and selling at certain times.. which could well be characterized as a form of swing trading or a broader kind of trading that tries to play the BIGGER bitcoin price moves, but still it is not as different as OgNasty is trying to frame it as being, even though what he is doing seems to not depend very much upon trying to figure out smaller levels of BTC price moves but it is still trying to figure out some kind of ballpark of areas of tops and bottoms of the BIGGER price moves which might be frustrating to try to get and might not even end up working out of anyone is trying to play them too BIGgedly.