Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1275. (Read 26730857 times)

We are smashing up against the final resistance level before the all time high right now. This is incredibly exciting. The next move up will quickly take us to $69K. It may take a couple of tries to break through where we are now, but the fireworks are coming and they coming sooner than I had anticipated. Cheers!

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Feb 15 is barely started (UTC) and already we're at a new AYH.

I am having troubles imagining scenarios that would justify a newbie to be selling very much of his BTC, especially if the newbie has ONLY been in BTC for less than a year, unless he had front-loaded and way over invested - such as if the newbie has one or two years of income in BTC.. so there are problems in changing your practice into trading prior to accumulating enough cornz.. .. so I am not sure if we know enough in regards to ambatman

The other thing is that your example sale amounts and the increments seem a bit much..


If a guy has 1 BTC, then he starts to sell at $54k, are we imagining his holdings to be 100% profits at that time, if his average cost per BTC is in the $27k arena?  That would not seem to be enough to start selling.. but hey, sure people do dumb things, but then people do tend to sell too many BTC too soon and then regretting it later..

In your first scenario, the guy ends up selling 10% of his stash and the BTC price had ONLY gone up 50% and all of those sales are in the middle of noman's land, which is also not a good place to be selling much if any BTC.. so maybe if the sell orders are cut 75%, then they might be acceptable.. depending on the guys level of already having enough BTC.  I would hardly consider 1 BTC to be enough.. but yeah, people live all over the world, so their costs of living are different.

It would be acceptable for a guy to have ladders that does allow up to 10% sales for every doubling of the BTC price, presuming that the guy had already accumulated enough, which I cannot be sure what that amount might be... and so guys do come to differing determinations, but if the BTC price keeps going up, the guys going to feel like he sold way too much too soon.. but maybe not until after he sells and the BTC price keeps going up.


I would think that a guy selling any BTC with less than 100% profits, would have to be really overstocked, and let's say that the guy has a salary that is $20k per year, and if he has a whole BTC then he has 2.5 years in salary when BTC prices are at $50k... .. if he is trying to get to fuck you status, then that would be $400k to $600k (which is 20x to 30x his annual salary), so do you think that he is making progress to get to fuck you status to be selling his BTC rather than continuing to buy BTC?  especially if he only has 1 BTC and he ONLY has 2.5x his salary/expenses.  Another thing is if he is valuating his BTC at spot price rather than using the 200-week moving average, he is engaging in another deception because the 200-week moving average right now is ONLY around $31k, so he may well ONLY have 1.5x of his annual salary rather than 2.5x of his salary, if he is trying to make a safer and more fair assessment of his situation and the value of his BTC holdings.

Whenever I sell any BTC, I presume that I am not going to be able to buy it back, so the amount that I sell accounts for my not being able to buy it back, but sure since BTC prices have historically tended to be volatile, I have been able to buy a lot of BTC back, but still the underlying presumption is not being able to buy them back, so then you structure how much to sell and even whether you are ready to start selling yet based upon the idea that if you sell you won't be able to buy back.....

and so another thing that is ambiguous is if someone does not have enough BTC yet, then I doubt it is good to be selling.. because you don't sell BTC to accumulate BTC. . you buy BTC to accumulate BTC, so you ONLY start to sell BTC once you have already calculated that not only do you have enough, you have more than enough.. so the justification for selling is because you have more than enough BTC. so you are able to justify selling the extra, but that still does not justify selling a lot, but just enough in order to have some kind of personally justifiable system in which you more or less know how many BTC that you have at various price points and so if you have 1 BTC at $54k, then how many are you going to have at $108k?  is 0.9 BTC acceptable at that price, or if you still want to have 1 BTC at $108k or you want to have more than 1 BTC at $108k, then you have not yet gotten to the stage in which you have enough BTC to start selling.

Now if a guy has 1 BTC at $200k or at $500k, then maybe that might be another story?  Is it o.k. to have 0.95 BTC at $200k and 0.9 BTC at $500k?  if that might be acceptable to the person, and the person currently ONLY has 1 BTC at $54k, then that person only has 0.1 BTC extra in his BTC holdings to be able to work with as excess until the BTC price gets to $500k... so it remains a good idea to consider if the guy has enough BTC right now in consideration of how many that he needs (or wants to have at various higher price points) and how much extra that the guy might have to work with and might be able to sell and still be able to reach his target BTC quantity at higher BTC prices.. These matters can be projected out so that a guy who is still in his accumulating stage is not selling in order to accumulate more BTC, but instead continues to buy until he has extra prior to starting to sell any of his BTC.... ..

Again, if he has targets about when the spot price reaches $500k versus when the 200-week moving average reaches $500k, those are two separate valuations that relate to one another, but still guys who are mostly trying to keep their value in BTC should be attempting to account for both ways of valuating his BTC holdings in order to have some restraints upon how many BTC that he is selling in light of his total BTC holdings and his goals.


This is another good point that relates to if you have enough.

So if you have enough, you don't need to buy right now.. but if you don't have enough you may well be better off to be buying right now. 

I presume that most folks who have been in bitcoin for less than a full cycle should still be buying... but someone like Biodom should have had already gotten enough.. but if his earlier purchases were too whimpy then he might still be buying rather than just sitting back and waiting for the BTC prices to come to him, whether that is at $54k, $84k, $124k, $163k. $381k, $517k, $1,376,389 or whatever other price target(s) that he might have in mind for his BTC in the event that he had bought more than whimpy amounts back in 2014, 2015 and 2016... so whether he has 20 BTC or some other number.. still it could be a matter of perspective regarding if that amount is enough or if the amount is more than enough and if he is in a position to start shaving some of them off along the way.


Well if you have 1 BTC in your stack that you are willing to sell, and your HODL stack is around 10 BTC, then that might be a reasonable framework... especially if you are selling in no man's land... .

I did a quickie calculation of my own sell orders between $54k and $150k, and right now it adds up to selling right around 2% of my  current holdings between here and $150k, and that would be if the BTC prices were to shoot up without any corrections... Sure, I am authorized to sell more than that.. since that would be way more than a doubling.. so a doubling does allow to sell up to 10%.. but even in my personal holdings I am not selling that much, but I am not going to suggest that guys are overly selling if they sell up to 10% for every doubling..but it still needs to meet the condition that they have already stacked enough or more than enough BTC.


No I cannot tell you exactly those kinds of short time frames especially if you had not been very consistent in what you were doing, but if you were buying BTC regularly and consistently, then there are websites that will help you to figure out how much your costs should have had been during that timeframe.. so for example if you had been buying $100 per week since November 1, 2022, then you would have had spent $6,800 and you would have had accumulated about 0.3133 BTC (valued currently at about $16,260), but still seems like a big so fucking what. . .but over a cycle or two or more it starts to seem like a pretty good deal to accumulate BTC over 4-10 years or longer...  and then to be in a position to have options in regards to what to do with your BTC stash.

I can tell you that if you are holding through whole cycles, and maybe over the span of a couple of cycles, then you likely do not have to worry so much about so many details because your coins are in sufficient profits and their value has likely been compounding upon itself, so then it becomes less of a concern regarding if you want to shave off some profits along the way.   


You seem to be in a kind of trading practice more than you are holding (and/or investing) your cornz.. since you are not even seeming to be trying to hold even over a whole cycle. .so you are likely experiencing little to no compounding effects on the value of your BTC as is the case for a lot of us longer term accumulators and HODLers who have multitudes and/or magnitudes of profits on our current BTC holdings...  Many of us are not tending to turn them over on a regular basis, so maybe right now some of us might have 5x to 10x, to 50x to 500x in profits on coins that we are selling and/or shaving off from time to time.  So yeah, you likely are different if you are not holding some of you coins on the side and investing with them rather than fucking around and trying to cashflow them on a regular basis before they even have had chances to compound in value.

Here's part of a post that I made several days ago in regards to BTC compounding value.

Explanation
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Fixed it for you. 

Explanation
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If there is a woman out there who expects a $52k gift for Valentines' Day, avoid her like the J&J covid jab. 

Saw this somewhere today, and I was like how would it be if the ladies no longer wanted flowers or gifts but Bitcoins for Valentine's well 52k I already see Bitcoin going past it's former Ath soon

Explanation
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Explanation
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Speaking about sell ladders, I don’t think it’s important to really devise a strict sell strategy but you should probably have some kind of plan ahead of the upcoming peak bull run.

I sold nothing in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and really regretted it in 2018 and 2019 as we endured a harsh bear market. I told myself I’d never be so unprepared again so I set up a plan to sell some in the next bull. To be honest, I deviated away from the sell plan I devised as we didn’t go as high as I expected in 2020 and 2021. I still did particularly well though and took out significant fiat. I was able to buy back a good % of what I sold during the recent bear market.

It’s all about experiences, earning your stripes. I don’t think you can fully know what you’re doing with any great conviction until you’ve been through two full, four year cycles. I am currently planning and devising a strategy for selling some more in, I expect 2025. I think it’s maybe a good idea to set yourself a fiat value in sales and then try to hit that, rather than a certain amount of bitcoin you sell. How much fiat do you need to satisfy your needs for the next four years (from end of 2025) until we get ready to do it all again.

The halving is nearing and we are already over 50k, I think maybe even the most battle hardened, OG HODLERS of all, could be surprised by the sheer violent parabolic upwards surge we could see next year. The demand and pure scarcity of coins available due to these spot etfs eating the supply could melt faces.

As always, the Wall Observer will be a fun place to see the wild emotions of fellow bitcoin bros.

I received this e-mail from Kraken today.


I'm not holding my breath, but the btc pay-out might actually happen sooner rather than later.

That kind of sound like a buy/sell ladder too though, just that your example is time dependable rather than price...

I get what you mean though. However, setting up a sell ladder might not be too bad of an idea. Let's say you predict the price to reach a certain number, a sell ladder around that number could make sense. Each to their own I guess.

Hhahahahahaha

No reason to get bored with dee cornz.

There are likely going to be ongoing breakings of various patterns that are not always easy to spot while within them.. but still.... I doubt that wars have exact patterns, even if you know who is winning and who is likely going to continue to win.. namely my lil precious.      


ProTip: Continue to wait.


I made a few adjustments to my ladders between $53k and $150k in my tentative anticipation of various resistance points, and I outlined a tentative plan for between $150k to $500k, which surely it would not be too difficult to extrapolate supra $500k, but we need to get a bit closer before I get too concrete about those kinds of numbers. Still having problems with brainstorming (within my own brain) regarding ways to become better at spending..


Scary, huh?  For me it is, and I am not even doubting the truth of your proclamation... whether we like it or not.. just having to embrace for the additional likely holey fucking shit to add upon the already existing holey fucking shit that already exists.

At the time when I read about Adam Back's bet on the 100k I thought he was crazy for betting that, unless he had some privileged information, which I think is difficult...  At that time bitcoin was in the region of 30k. It was impossible for such a bold bet to succeed, nowadays I think it could be completely viable.

hmm..lurking here since before this thread started. Guess its time again for a proof of life post. See you at 100k

There surely can be questions regarding the extent to which you are still building your investment portfolio and/or leaving your investment portfolio to continue to appreciate in value.. whether you are ONLY in bitcoin and/or if you have other investments to draw upon and/or an income that is sufficient to support your lifestyle to whatever extent that you might be inclined to keep it the same or to move it to a higher level of spending.

There also could be times in which you start to get senses that you have too many BTC, including at the rate that you anticipate them to appreciate in value in the future.

You could have in mind the level of default entry-level fuck you status that I had outlined in my entry-level fuck you status chart (which would be $2 million in value), or you could have some other target in mind that still may well include the anticipation that the number of BTC that you need in order to reach your target would be dropping, and then if you have your own customized entry-level in mind, then you might also start to anticipate that if there might be some multitude higher than the entry-level that you would like to reach prior to starting to draw upon your stash on a fairly regular basis.  Well and I suppose that is when you get to some kind of an anticipation to start drawing monthly...

versus the raking idea that is more purely around the idea of taking advantage of various exponential rises in BTC prices. .whether you plan to buy back after selling or not, there could be some thresholds upon which you would prefer to rake a little profits.. and to keep that value in another form (whether in dollars or putting into some investment or maybe just consuming it in some kind of a way), since many of us likely realize that one of the most inevitable characteristics of bitcoin remains its ongoing volatility that is about the most assured thing that exists with it (even if there are ongoing wishful-thinking claims to its stability.. which are not complete myths, but pretty likely spinnings of something that might be trending towards stability but still a long way off from stability - perhaps in 20-50 years best case scenario in the ball park of 10x to 100x gold's market cap.. perhaps, perhaps?), but we likely can have little to no confidence with the exact direction of BTC's ongoing and inevitable volatility, especially in the shorter terms of less than a cycle.. and even if directionally we still should be expecting the 200-week moving average (or maybe you like some other longer term bottom indicator?) to continue to trend (or is it "tend") upwardly.


How is that "profit-taking" going for you @promise444c5?


For sure recent BTC price action has been exciting (whether we end up getting a correction from here or not), and even if I might prematurely be getting excited, especially since we have not even quite gotten out of the "don't wake me up zone" yet... but still getting aroused a wee bit.. and even considering the possibility of moving the bottom of the "don't wake me up zone" from $35k to $38k-ish..

On a related note, I also just posted the below in the Top 20 100 days in bitcoin thread.



Seemed like such a long shot, just a few months ago.. especially in October when Adam Back was predicting $100k before the halvening, and now even he is not looking so crazy.


Personally, I am not going to write off the 4-year cycles.. even though they might end up falling into some kind of a wee different kind of a pattern due to some of the entrance of new money.

And so what?  multiple trillion coming in?  that just makes for the possibility of a return to a 100x or more blow off top (like 2013) or maybe a more modest 78x blow off top, like 2017, rather than our more or less relatively whimpy 16x blow off top of 2021.

By the way, $200k to $500k is ONLY a mere 10x to 20x if we might want to use $27k as our jumping off point...   To me, that eems like a BIG so what? and not enough to even come close to calling death to the 4-year cycle.

In udder words.. careful in terms of your prematurely wanting to proclaim death the the four-year cycle.. merely based on a wee widdo bit of interluding excitementaningss..

WWWWEeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!

Explanation
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