Volume is still looking nice.
People seem confused and disorientated. Like they just got hit on the head with a hammer, while wearing a hat, before eating it.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 12915. (Read 26713933 times)
October 15, 2018, 09:06:09 PM
People seem confused and disorientated. Like they just got hit on the head with a hammer, while wearing a hat, before eating it.
October 15, 2018, 08:45:17 PM
It is even worse than it appears when you seem more context and a few more angles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRUBj2PTtL8
October 15, 2018, 08:35:06 PM
Even the stock hardware is full of secrets and holes, watch this video.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrksBdWcZgQ&t=403s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrksBdWcZgQ&t=403s
Have you seen his video attacking System Management Mode using the APIC? Genius. It's also unsettling how vast and disconnected the x86 processor has become. It feels like a decaying city in there.
October 15, 2018, 08:29:54 PM
Volume is still looking nice.
October 15, 2018, 08:12:07 PM
Shortist leaving the party
October 15, 2018, 08:05:36 PM
THOSE SHORT EXPERTS
watch out hairy 
He was not liquidated (if you are talking about Tone Vays). On bitmex (where he is doing this trade) highest was $6777. His liquidation happens at around $7650.
So far, we don't really talk about Tone Vays in this thread, but I am sure that a large number of WO thread posters generally understand the position of Tone Vays to be inclined towards believing that a correction is necessary before BTC prices can resume upwards.
Tone Vays also proclaims NOT to trade on his own trading advice because he asserts that he does not have enough time to do so, which seems a bit of an overstatement (especially when he spends a considerable amount of time giving advice about methodologies for trading BTC and uses current charts in order to predict short-term price directions).
October 15, 2018, 07:45:43 PM
jjg-
Would you tell Henry Ford to stop assembly line producing anti-semetic personal automobiles?
Of course not.
October 15, 2018, 07:36:37 PM
I’m pretty relaxed about entry.
*Having nailed the sentiment of the world, Rosewater hands Hairy the sacred hammer*
get yer moon boots on lads
they are always on JUST IN CASE, never now when shit's gonna take off
There ain't no such thing as a free hat. This will end doomily. Wait for it.
Again, your tendency to find a doom scenario in good news, correct?
Living off the fat of the land is a niche hustle. Don't forget to ladder your approaches.
*Rosewater throws the ceremonial mallet*
*Rosewater throws the ceremonial mallet*
That is called : Koreck!!!!
October 15, 2018, 07:36:14 PM
I consider the importance of Tether to be overblown and calling it entirely responsible for the rise to be fearmongering.
Hey, you can never have enough fearmongering when it comes to bitcoin
There's always a pumper at hand to come and extinguish the concern !
October 15, 2018, 06:45:10 PM
12288$$$$
12/10/2018 IntroVert
15/10/2018 explorer
18/10/2018 Searing
26/10/2018 kurious
09/11/2018 fabiorem
15/11/2018 bitserve
20/11/2018 Globb0
22/11/2018 Last of the V8s
01/12/2018 Alexander_Z
07/03/2019 CoinCube
15/04/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
20/06/2019 bitebits
13/12/2019 nikauforest
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson
23/06/2021 fortune143
and another falls off ........................ only 15 left on this one
12/10/2018 IntroVert
15/10/2018 explorer
18/10/2018 Searing
26/10/2018 kurious
09/11/2018 fabiorem
15/11/2018 bitserve
20/11/2018 Globb0
22/11/2018 Last of the V8s
01/12/2018 Alexander_Z
07/03/2019 CoinCube
15/04/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
20/06/2019 bitebits
13/12/2019 nikauforest
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson
23/06/2021 fortune143
and another falls off ........................ only 15 left on this one
Yep, I'm toaster city here soon! (Ack!). At least have the BTC price PUMP some, before I get dumped off the list. The price of BTC is so 'embarrassing' from
my dreams, when I made this bet! (alas, gone along with my supermodel trophy wife goal at 100k BTC...alas)
Gosh!!!!! I don't think that "supermodel trophy wifes" come (even one of them) merely based on having a lot of money...
Let's say BTC prices shoot up from current prices to $1million per BTC within the next year, and let's say that you both had 100 BTC and you were able to hang onto all of them during the price rise and you cashed out at $1million - easy peasy...!!!! Viola!!!! $100 million available -
minus taxes, of course, but that would be 15% capital gains - leaving $85 million.
I suppose that should be enough to keep any high maintenance girl happy, right?
my dreams, when I made this bet! (alas, gone along with my supermodel trophy wife goal at 100k BTC...alas)
at 100K, 'trophy wife' coefficient is probably 1K btc, no less.
Alas, I might have been overestimating associated expenses.
You fool, you can't get a 'high quality' ...'trophy wife' for less than 100k a BTC! (Just wait, in a few years I'll prove it to ya!)
What you gonna call the proof? Proof of work, proof of steak, proof of trophy acquisition or something else?
October 15, 2018, 06:41:49 PM
10 pages today, I guess the price went up?
200$
Damn, that all? I see we had a tether ripple. LOL
or tether knew they were solvent. spread the fud themselves. bought your bitcoins for cheap. dumped on you at the top.
4. There are some well researched articles showing that the Bitfinex/USD Tether operation has essentially been responsible for the ENTIRE price rise in bitcoin right from $180 to where we are today
Yeah right. Even if you believe that Willy Bot was ENTIRELY responsible for the $1160 bubble, it had to buy 1M bitcoins. How many bitcoins has Tether bought even if you believe that not a single cent backs it? Yet it is responsible for an even greater relative increase? I'm no fan of Tether, but that sounds like "well-researched", class-A bullshit.
Yup, that is a completely retarded statement.
Bitfinex and their USDT should be shaking in their boots with Fidelity, Bakkt etc coming on board. The tiddlywinks days of shady exchanges and monopoly money are coming to and end.
Yes but... wouldn't be surprised if in 5-6 years people are cryin' about how Bakkt has become "shady as fuck" too.
Wall Street invented shady.
You got that right!
October 15, 2018, 06:36:28 PM
I appreciate your outlining of scenarios that you believe to be probable and most probable, but really it seems to me that you are not really accounting for the vast array of BTC price scenarios – even if you are attempting to stay in the middle of the road – and you are not putting your scenarios into a kind of probability range – which certainly each of us are going to frame these probabilities a bit differently. Furthermore, it seems that even your optimistic scenario ends up with John McAfee eating his dick on TV.
I am going to attempt to elaborate on your scenarios by adding more scenarios and assigning probabilities to them. By the way, I do agree with any premise that BTC’s performance in 6-7 years will partly depend upon how it performs in the next 2-3 years.
BTC’s price will be: First column in 2-3 years Second column in 6-7 years
Below $1k = Less than 3% Less than 1.5%
$1k to $3k = 8% to 12% 7% to 9%
$3k to $5k = 10% to 15% 8% to 12%
$5k to $10k = 10% to 15% 8% to 12%
$10k to $19k = 15% to 18% 12% to 15%
$19k to $30k = 15% to 18% 15% to 18%
$30k to $50k = 15% to 18% 15% to 18%
$50k to $100k = 12% to 15% 15% to 18%
$100k to $500k = 5% to 10% 10% to 15%
$500k to $1mill = 2% to 4% 10% to 15%
More than $1mill = Less than 1% Less than 5%
I’m kind of pulling the above estimates out of my ass (straight); however, my point still remains that each set of circumstances has probabilities, even though in the end, we are going to arrive at ONLY one spot once we get there. Nonetheless, from our current perspective, we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.
I am going to attempt to elaborate on your scenarios by adding more scenarios and assigning probabilities to them. By the way, I do agree with any premise that BTC’s performance in 6-7 years will partly depend upon how it performs in the next 2-3 years.
BTC’s price will be: First column in 2-3 years Second column in 6-7 years
Below $1k = Less than 3% Less than 1.5%
$1k to $3k = 8% to 12% 7% to 9%
$3k to $5k = 10% to 15% 8% to 12%
$5k to $10k = 10% to 15% 8% to 12%
$10k to $19k = 15% to 18% 12% to 15%
$19k to $30k = 15% to 18% 15% to 18%
$30k to $50k = 15% to 18% 15% to 18%
$50k to $100k = 12% to 15% 15% to 18%
$100k to $500k = 5% to 10% 10% to 15%
$500k to $1mill = 2% to 4% 10% to 15%
More than $1mill = Less than 1% Less than 5%
I’m kind of pulling the above estimates out of my ass (straight); however, my point still remains that each set of circumstances has probabilities, even though in the end, we are going to arrive at ONLY one spot once we get there. Nonetheless, from our current perspective, we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.
In other words you believe the price will stay below 3K with probability 15% and below 5K with 30% probability for the next 3 years? I wouldn't give that much - 1-2% tops. The most important question is when the effect of mass adoption (including Wall Street companies) is about to happen? I don't think we are near that event. Not even close. So the price will continue to follow its previous pattern. For the last 4 years we had 100 fold increase between the lowest point and the ATH in 2017. It is logical that the same increase will happen in a similar time frame unless the mass adoption is near completition. But let's say that it goes much slower, say 1/4 of the speed of the previous pattern. In other words 6K->600k/4=150k is achievable price within 4 years. But let's say it is not highly probable. Then again, I think that 40K is absolutely normal price in the next 4 years.
I think he did not put much effort in exact %. He even said so. But what bothers me most in such predictions. And also in predictions from both of you. About what price are you talking about. About the ATH, of the bottom or of the average? 2018 price could be $15000 or $6000 so far. That is quite a difference.
I mentioned this in my response to ivomm, which was that I was attempting to work with ivomm's framework, which was a range of dates that approximate the next two halvenings. Sure, we could be a bit more precise in our prediction attempts if we pick a specific date rather than a range of dates, but that kind of a practice also might be getting too caught up about the price on a particular date (and being correct) rather than to merely ballpark the concept which is more likely what we do in our brains in real life anyhow when we are approximating the probabilities of events that might happen in the future. Sometimes, we might attempt to be precise, but likely a lot of times, we ballpark our views and predictions and just go on with our lives with certain frameworks in our heads (that we have to adjust with the passage of time and the learning of new information).
In my thinking, it does not matter so much about whether we end up being correct, but merely what we believe now, how we prepare based on our thoughts and the extent to which we tweak along the way while information and presumptions are likely to change along the way.
October 15, 2018, 06:24:10 PM
jjg-
October 15, 2018, 06:23:43 PM
This part is nonsense. They didn't "have to buy 1M bitcoins" because to do market manipulation you only need enough to create movements in the right direction. Ever noticed how Bitstamp always follows and never leads ? (At least I've never seen Bitstamp lead a bullrun, it constantly has to be "dragged out of bed" by Bitfinex).
Manipulators use momentum ignition, but you need the demand there in the first place for it to work. You can't simply prop up a market that doesn't want to move in that direction because you'll quickly find yourself buying up significant chunks of the supply e.g. Bitmain and BCH.
Given that we have this record of 1M being falsely bought, and they have bought less, I consider the importance of Tether to be overblown and calling it entirely responsible for the rise to be fearmongering.
October 15, 2018, 06:21:09 PM
BTC’s price will be: First column in 2-3 years Second column in 6-7 years
Below $1k = Less than 3% Less than 1.5%
$1k to $3k = 8% to 12% 7% to 9%
$3k to $5k = 10% to 15% 8% to 12%
$5k to $10k = 10% to 15% 8% to 12%
$10k to $19k = 15% to 18% 12% to 15%
$19k to $30k = 15% to 18% 15% to 18%
$30k to $50k = 15% to 18% 15% to 18%
$50k to $100k = 12% to 15% 15% to 18%
$100k to $500k = 5% to 10% 10% to 15%
$500k to $1mill = 2% to 4% 10% to 15%
More than $1mill = Less than 1% Less than 5%
...we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.
wow this is amazing. So the price is going to be between 1000$ and 1 Million $. Nice guess....
Actually, TReano, you did not even summarize the predictions accurately, because I assigned probabilities to prices below $1k and above $1million, but I did not believe it would be necessary, at this time, to specify in more detail in the outside of the range.
Anyhow, that's how predicting the future works. If you are attempting to be honest with yourself, then you assign probabilities to the future that are between 0% and 100% rather than asserting absolutism that merely simplifies without really providing guidance - beyond gambling.
Maybe I should not ask a troll/shill a question, but I will bite just to press my luck that you might provide a meaningful answer (low probability bet, but what the heck)... Here we go: What is your system of predicting the future BTC price, TReano? time frame of 2-3 years and 6-7 years?
October 15, 2018, 06:12:34 PM
I appreciate your outlining of scenarios that you believe to be probable and most probable, but really it seems to me that you are not really accounting for the vast array of BTC price scenarios – even if you are attempting to stay in the middle of the road – and you are not putting your scenarios into a kind of probability range – which certainly each of us are going to frame these probabilities a bit differently. Furthermore, it seems that even your optimistic scenario ends up with John McAfee eating his dick on TV.
I am going to attempt to elaborate on your scenarios by adding more scenarios and assigning probabilities to them. By the way, I do agree with any premise that BTC’s performance in 6-7 years will partly depend upon how it performs in the next 2-3 years.
BTC’s price will be: First column in 2-3 years Second column in 6-7 years
Below $1k = Less than 3% Less than 1.5%
$1k to $3k = 8% to 12% 7% to 9%
$3k to $5k = 10% to 15% 8% to 12%
$5k to $10k = 10% to 15% 8% to 12%
$10k to $19k = 15% to 18% 12% to 15%
$19k to $30k = 15% to 18% 15% to 18%
$30k to $50k = 15% to 18% 15% to 18%
$50k to $100k = 12% to 15% 15% to 18%
$100k to $500k = 5% to 10% 10% to 15%
$500k to $1mill = 2% to 4% 10% to 15%
More than $1mill = Less than 1% Less than 5%
I’m kind of pulling the above estimates out of my ass (straight); however, my point still remains that each set of circumstances has probabilities, even though in the end, we are going to arrive at ONLY one spot once we get there. Nonetheless, from our current perspective, we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.
In other words you believe the price will stay below 3K with probability 15% and below 5K with 30% probability for the next 3 years? I wouldn't give that much - 1-2% tops.
I was trying my best to use your initial framework, and then to elaborate on the same framework.
So, in the 2-3 years time frame that you had mentioned, I assigned less than 3% chance that BTC would be below $1k, 8%-12% chances that BTC prices would be $1k to $3k and 10%-15% chance that BTC prices would be between $3k and $5k.... I am not really attempting to predict what BTC prices would do before that 2-3year time window, but just attempting to approximate where it would be during that time frame (which actually is a broad time frame in BTClandia, but I was just attempting to work with what you gave me to my best guestimation). of course if you pick a specific date, such as 2.5years - rather than a range, then that would create its own dynamics... So I don't really have a problem with selecting a range of dates and kind of ballparking a fair approximation of the price for that period. By the way, if we tried to assess what the BTC price would be in 2017, the range would end up being quite broad, so we might even disagree about what the BTC price ended up being, unless we pick a specific date - but for the purpose of making ball park estimates, I find no problem using a range as long as we know what we are talking about (which is probabilities iof trends in a broader sense rather than getting caught in the weeds of whether we were "technically correct").
The most important question is when the effect of mass adoption (including Wall Street companies) is about to happen? I don't think we are near that event. Not even close. So the price will continue to follow its previous pattern.
Financialization of bitcoin is going to continue to be an evolving thing rather than "all of a sudden" thing, so even though I agree with you that BTC is in early stages of financialization, we cannot realistically act as if it is not currently happening behind the scenes (and sometimes in front of the scenes). Think about 4 years ago, and the level of financialization then as compared with now, even if you might be disappointed that financialization of bitcoin has not evolved further, it has evolved quite a bit and perhaps beyond the wildest expectations of a lot of 2014 folks.
For the last 4 years we had 100 fold increase between the lowest point and the ATH in 2017. It is logical that the same increase will happen in a similar time frame unless the mass adoption is near completition.
Hey, you are not going to get disagreement from me regarding either the bullish potential of bitcoin or the fact that we are not even close to BTC mass adoption (likely way less than 1% of the world's population has any kind of stake in bitcoin or really knows what it is for that matter). I am largely criticizing you for your seeming failure/refusal to assign seemingly realistic probabilities to BTC downside scenarios (which could include ongoing downward price manipulation beyond reason or expectations), and I think that downside has to be considered and assigned some probability in the thinking of anyone who really is attempting to honestly prepare himself (or herself) for a variety of possible scenarios - even if ultimately the bullish scenarios continue to have great ongoing likelihood of playing out.
But let's say that it goes much slower, say 1/4 of the speed of the previous pattern. In other words 6K->600k/4=150k is achievable price within 4 years. But let's say it is not highly probable. Then again, I think that 40K is absolutely normal price in the next 4 years.
Even though I don't disagree with your whole assessment about BTC bullish scenarios and even asserting that your viewpoint is conservative, I don't think that it is fair to get caught up in "pattern thinking" and presume that bitcoin has to follow some kind of pattern.
In the end, whatever pattern evolves is going to show itself as it is evolving, but we, as individuals, are caught up in the pattern, and we should not be assuming with 100% that a pattern is going to happen - and likely assigning anything above 60% is also dangerous... even though if the pattern ends up happening, the pattern does become 100%, but that is an unhealthy way of thinking (both psychologically and financially imprudent) to be assigning high probabilities to events that have not yet happened - even when your being into bitcoin already seems to show that you are advantaged of knowing information that the mass public (99%-ish) seem to either not understand or continue NOT to act upon to accumulate BTC.
October 15, 2018, 06:08:20 PM
THEY SHOULD MAKE ONE FOR coiners and nocoiners as well......
or BTC'ers and Bcashers etc
October 15, 2018, 05:58:43 PM
Preview of Q4 board meetings at major financial institutions. HUGE move from @Fidelity
October 15, 2018, 05:54:37 PM
THEY SHOULD MAKE ONE FOR coiners and nocoiners as well......
or BTC'ers and Bcashers etc
Apple just announced emojis for BCashers.or BTC'ers and Bcashers etc
the little shit image got a B on top of it ??
October 15, 2018, 05:53:18 PM
THEY SHOULD MAKE ONE FOR coiners and nocoiners as well......
or BTC'ers and Bcashers etc
Apple just announced emojis for BCashers.or BTC'ers and Bcashers etc
the little shit image got a B on top of it ??
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