Essentially the point is that institutional investors want to buy up large quantities of Bitcoin without moving the price. So if they are only buying OTC from Bitmain and other large miners, and the "halvening" happens in 589 days... then I would agree that could easily be where the increase in price comes.
When I said "probably well before the halvening", I was thinking along the following lines.
Lately, volume on traditional exchanges has been ridiculously low. I think this might not be tightly connected with shark buyers going OTC; they have been doing things that way for a while already. The issue is small fish losing interest, patience, fiat money, or all of the above. As soon as all these things build back up, exchange prices must inevitably get a push. Any sign of a bull market will likely trigger a wave of small fish FOMO that will be impact prices for all to see, including MSM. Which will likely create some feedback loop and we'll be back to late 2017 scenarios.
Maybe we should ask Jamie Dimon. I bet he has a pretty good idea of when that might be.
So, who calls him? Will you or should I?
I'd call Jamie Dimon, but I think he blocked my number due to my efforts to call out his BS in 2017.
I agree, retail interest in Bitcoin is very low right now, which gives the sharks plenty of room to swim without interference. But once we see some news that spikes enough people's interest, the domino effect will take place like in 2017:
- Institutional investors quietly buying Bitcoin...
- Some announcement drives decent interest in buying Bitcoin
- Bitcoin price goes ^
- "Bitcoin Bull Run Again?" in news cycle
- People start FOMO and buy BTC
- Bitcoin price goes ^^
- More news cycles about Bitcoin "Bitcoin Goes on a Real Tear This Time, Will We See $1,000,000? Jamie Dimon Says Yes"
- More people FOMO buy
- Bitcoin price ^^^
- News cycles go wild, your grandma sees it and calls you to ask you to help her buy Bitcoin
- Institutional investors taking profit $$
- Bitcoin price ---
- People tell themselves this is consolidation before more ^^^
- Institutional investors finish taking profit $$$, start shorting
- Bitcoin price \/
- People say, "just people taking a little profit before hitting the REAL bull run"
- Bitcoin price \/\/
- People start getting a little worried about a repeat, not buying any more
- Institutional investors get busy shorting
- Bitcoin price \/\/\/
- People start reverse FOMO, selling all their holdings
- Bitcoin price \/\/\/\/\/
- Institional investors cashing in shorts... $$$$$$$
- Retail investors lose their shorts
- Bitcoin bottoms and cycle starts all over again