Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 12959. (Read 26715124 times)

Obviously.

if schmif

...and if we can't, a conservative short might be the ticket.

Yeah man,  that was the spectrum. Great game !

When I said "probably well before the halvening", I was thinking along the following lines.

Lately, volume on traditional exchanges has been ridiculously low. I think this might not be tightly connected with shark buyers going OTC; they have been doing things that way for a while already. The issue is small fish losing interest, patience, fiat money, or all of the above. As soon as all these things build back up, exchange prices must inevitably get a push. Any sign of a bull market will likely trigger a wave of small fish FOMO that will impact prices for all to see, including MSM. Which will likely create some feedback loop and we'll be back to late 2017 scenarios.

So, who calls him? Will you or should I?  

Jetpack!

Just a little teasing on the surface. I actually think margin trading, used wisely, is a powerful tool. Used unwisely, it's a powerful tool as well, but as with any power tool, you risk your fingers or worse if you don't know your way around it...

... however, as with any power tool, there are a bunch of safety rules that can be followed to minimize the risk of injuries while still being able to exploit the power. Imagine cutting logs with a wood axe because that electric saw is just too dangerous.

I actually find some form of leveraged trading to be an aid in restraining the inherent gambler inside. Make a plan, work out the best/worst/most likely outcome, play out. No room for clumsy impulse actions once you've set up an involved series of moves. I agree it's not for everyone, though. I don't like welders and their paraphernalia, for example, so I will gladly use the services of a pro whenever I'm in need.

When the trend is down, if there are no fiat reserves to accumulate moar, there's not much to be done by the accumulate-and-hodl investor. That strategy only pays out in bull markets. This might tickle the inner gambler to "poke his stash with a stick", so to say, which is a dangerous game. On the other hand, a plan with pre-calculated possible gains and losses is a way to grow one's stash even in bear markets, with a limited penalty in case of failure.

In the end, and I think we agree on this, it's all about finding a system that works for oneself.

My cousin got a ZX81 it had 1K memory. 1 K!!! We typed in the code to run games on it from magazines. It didn't have sound, or colours. Good times though. Showing my age. Ha. My first was the Acorn Electron. I wanted a C64 but my parents  thought the Electron would be more educational. It was a pretty cool computer in its way though. I grew to be a fan. Programming on that as a hobby eventually morphed into my profession

If we can hold the $6k floor through to the end of January, then it’s on like Donkey Kong.

Essentially the point is that institutional investors want to buy up large quantities of Bitcoin without moving the price. So if they are only buying OTC from Bitmain and other large miners, and the "halvening" happens in 589 days... then I would agree that could easily be where the increase in price comes.

But we should remember that institutional investors also suffer from greed and FOMO, and if there's investors wanting to buy more than the amount of BTC currently being available to purchase OTC is where we will see their purchases encroaching on the traditional markets, and then we will see the increase in price. So when will this happen? ::shrug:: Maybe we should ask Jamie Dimon. I bet he has a pretty good idea of when that might be.

https://twitter.com/VoteOutLibs76/status/1049757091836153857

Here's an excerpt from the second link provided by mfort a few posts above.

Big Institutional Investors are Buying Large Amounts of Bitcoin in OTC Market (3 Oct 2018)
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/10/03/big-institutional-investors-are-buying-large-amounts-of-bitcoin-in-otc-market/

The question in the subtitle has been left unanswered in the article, but my reasonable guess is "probably well before the halvening".

Indeed.

Or publicly keep a skeptical attitude about fancy internet money, or even spread FUD. Until your bank is found red-handed. At that point, just keep a publicly skepical attitude. Or even disseminate some doubt-generating mud.

The only problem I have with this point is: do you close the mad shorts (buy btc) or do you take a loss?

An enlightening read.

IMO your analysis is spot on, as it often happens.

Eh, WTF?  chili fries, watch it bud    Its called Poutine and its fun to say.

Hit the nail on the head:

Institutional Investors Are Using Back Door for Crypto Buys (1 Oct 2018)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-01/institutional-investors-are-using-back-door-for-crypto-purchases

Big Institutional Investors are Buying Large Amounts of Bitcoin in OTC Market (3 Oct 2018)
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/10/03/big-institutional-investors-are-buying-large-amounts-of-bitcoin-in-otc-market/

Bitcoin is now a rich man's game.

2018 marks the transition from small-time retail hype to the beginning of savvy institutional/money-bags hype.

Exchanges are becoming less and less relevant as larger transactions are moving off-exchange at a premium to current exchange prices.

When the next big bull run does happen, small time retail buyers may be shut out due to a lack of supply or basic transaction access.
What little may be available on-exchange during a bull-run will likely fetch a hefty premium.
The next generation of HODLers will be laughing all the way to the exchange OTC.

IMHO, we are in the midst of large-scale coordinated institutional manipulation leading up the next halving/ETF/choose your own hype spark:

1. First rule of Institutional Bitcoin: you don't talk about Institutional Bitcoin.
2. Quietly buy up all the mining supply via OTC back channels or in-house Bitcoin brokers.
[Optional: Fund bogus studies, ban ads, ban credit card & retail bank sales, and fling FUD near and wide to throw your competition off scent. JP Morgan, Chase, Juniper Research, Google, Twitter, etc.]
3. HODL and wait for the next hype-fueled bull run.
4. SHORT futures like mad and then SODL at the peak.
5. Rinse and repeat.

I got the impression about you that you only do what you go to restaurants, eat there and drink. And also have fun. I would have liked it too.

whoa !!!!
french fries with steak ??

you do not see that combination in north america (well maybe Canada). 
Makes me want to go to a steak restaurant and ask for fries with my steak and see what reaction I get...

Canada was the first place I experienced french fries with chili and cheese poured on top of them.  I think they called them chili fries.