I have considerable difficulties understanding any kind of investment strategy that buys while an asset is exploding 2x, 5x, 8x, 10x or greater, and then stops buying when that asset is lowering in price.
The strategy you describe sounds unwise indeed.
On the other hand, even if someone's bullish on a particular asset, it does make sense to wait for uptrend confirmation before buying a substantial chunk. In the case of bitcoin, which can explode 10x in short time spans, it's not unreasonable to wait for 2x before feeling confident it's a bull run, even for a medium-long term investor.
On the third hand (or is it one foot?), timing the market reliably is, as we know, impossible.
In my earlier post, I was referring to a situation in which someone has bought BTC near the top of the previous bubble, and then that same person get's stuck with an average cost per BTC that is way higher than the current BTC price (let's say average cost per BTC is in the $15k or greater arena and the person is about 50% in the red with his/her investment), and does not do anything (including does not buy more BTC), and seems to be contemplating selling the BTC that s/he already had bought rather than having some kind of plan that involved continuing to buy BTC in order to bring down his/her average cost per BTC.
It is a strange mentality because it seems to be investing based on very superficiality considerations (namely believing that the price is going to continue to go up and if the price does not go up, then either 1) there are opportunity costs to holding, 2) the price might go lower so can buy more BTC or 3) gotta get out now because scared.. blah blah blah.
Any sound investment should plan to budget in such a way that prepares for the down...
Hedging with shorts?
You are likely razzing me, because you know that I don't really believe in playing around with margin.
I believe that anyone buying into BTC needs to learn the non-marginal (nonleverage) fundamentals first before advancing to playing around with margin - which likely drags folks into even more gambling mentality than they are already inclined towards.
in other words, playing around with margin/leveraging tends to be a much more complicated investment tool that requires even a greater set of skills than normal trading ---- such as mere buying on the way down and selling on the way up... Even for very smart people, have troubles with the more basic strategies, so I would not recommend playing with margin/or leverage until after the person has developed a decently strong basic game, first.
And, even in bitcoin, the historical degree of volatility might justify that leveraging and/or margin trading is NOT necessary because the returns can be incredibly stupendous with a mere basic accumulation game that does not involve such additional skills and strategies that may just end up greatly increasing the odds for folks to end up losing in what seems to be an otherwise highly probable winning game.