Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 13056. (Read 26718232 times)

The most reasonable approach would likely be to say "fuck them all," but instead you seem to appreciate the drama and presuming that you are dealing with good actors, within the sense of the all is fair in love and war free market.

Kinda looks like the 2019 folk have a shot, me not so much (Oct 18th) (was in 2013 day I got my KNC Jupiter ASIC miner up)

24777

28/08/2018 bitserve
15/10/2018 Yefi
05/11/2018 mikenz
31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK    for the few remaining

12288

11/09/2018 Dakustaking76
20/09/2018 Digigami
22/09/2018 Agapios
26/09/2018 itod
30/09/2018 DeathAngel
12/10/2018 IntroVert
15/10/2018 explorer
18/10/2018 Searing
26/10/2018 kurious
09/11/2018 fabiorem
15/11/2018 bitserve
20/11/2018 Globb0
22/11/2018 Last of the V8s
01/12/2018 Alexander_Z
07/03/2019 CoinCube
15/04/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
20/06/2019 bitebits
13/12/2019 nikauforest
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson   
23/06/2021 fortune143 

getting shorter again ........           

I am not sure.

We may have been referring to slightly different events, because you suggested a less than 10% likelihood of your scenario 2, but I was trying to figure out if you could NOT be so absurd as to believe that there is much less than a 10% chance of never reaching an ATH again.  I think that I was criticizing you for your gravitation towards extremes while you are attempting to suggest that you are neutral and objective; however, when, on your own, you came out with additional and more reasonable scenarios, I could see that I had gone a bit too far in my criticism of you, even though I still believe you have a tendency to make outrageous claims and to assign a higher likelihood to the happening of that outrageous claim than is really justifiable - which could cause confusion from the reader.




Actually, if any of us are going to attempt to reasonably participate and invest in this bitcoin game, then we both have to attempt to assign probabilities to events and to allocate our risk accordingly, otherwise we are gambling. 

Of course, we can bet all or nothing of a smaller amount of value on one set of longer term scenarios playing out and then just let the whole matter ride out in a range without getting caught up into thinking about shorter term movements, and that kind of approach could work fairly well too, yet sometimes thinking too much about what is going to happen, either long term or short term can hurt our brains and imagination, too.


That is a fair criticism, because even if I disagree with you or how you came up with your numbers, you will usually make a decent attempt at giving reasons for how you arrived at your predictions.


Perhaps, I would rather call it attacking extreme positions, even though I tend to let the bull extremes slide a bit more than the bear extremes.


Oh shit!!!!  Now you are going to play the status card?   hahahahahahaha


Certainly, I don't fight this kind of thinking because I understand some statistical and probability analysis, but we still have more going on in bitcoin than merely what the aggregate of market traders believe, including 1) a relatively small market that can be opportunistically manipulated to do the opposite  and 2) the likely existence of an exponential growth curve that is more difficult to see on the micro level - and even uncertainties about whether it really exists (while we are caught up in it).  Sure, we might be able to see all of these aspects in retrospect and even capture them in our statistical formulas, but in the short term, each of us also needs to decide and hope we don't get caught up within some kind of statistical anomaly that is going to look normal in retrospect, but does not seem normal while it is happening to us.

btc irl  xD

God this thread gets weird when the price is flat.  I almost unblocked gembitz for luls...  Not that bad yet.  If its 6XXX in February maybe.

brickstream? :-D

Get the strap!

Haven't been to Mongolia yet but I know a guy in India that makes and tests all his own brickstrings.

Yeah gonna watch iT @ a friends place of Maybe @ the cinema if they plat iT......
Also thuis weekend , watch GLORY  jarray vs groenhart .... and offcourse main flight of the evening Rico verhoeven  its in Amsterdam , pity i can’t go there

I watched the press conference press and it was very epic, finally McGregor really good rival

McGregor vs Khabib will be a REALLY good fight, it’s next weekend 6th October. It’s in Vegas too, I won’t be going to that though

Yes, I understand that after such events it is difficult to call a taxi.

And the events are really cool, but I love more than UFC. I'll fly to Las Vegas for a fight.

Yeah, we were about 25 rows from the ring. It was a really good night apart from the fact it was raining bedore the fight & Wembley don’t close the roof of the stadium so we got soaking wet

It took ages to get a taxi back to the hotel after too

LFC Bitcoin as you fight Joshua and Povetkin?

Did you post this on the wrong forum bro?

F**K INCIDENT! this should not happen almost after 10 years of existence!