Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 13059. (Read 26718310 times)

I dont think XRP can pump to those levels without crypto and inevitably btc rallying too. Also, those 60b XRP you are talking about, they can only sell a certain amount each month (ripple labs) but yes, terrible situation with such large part of the supply owned by a single actor. In my beginning days i fatfingered into a ripple market buy with my whole exchange account.. it was 1.6m xrp lol and i corrected my mistake by selling back (note this is 2016). But i dont like the coin and think it would be better if it didnt exist.

I got stopped out about 3 minutes after posting this.  Bitcoin is one hell of a ride !

looking forward for your middle and long term bullish charts

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Correct. There is no such thing as "1 $BTC", so the question is ambiguous and there is no "right" answer.

It doesn't matter if $BTC is a typo, he means 1 BTC, or he means 1 BCASH, or 1 ASS.... he:

1- Buy 1 of whatever for $6000, and afterwards sells it for $7000. Profit = $1000
2- Buy 1 of whatever for $8000, and afterwards sells it for $9000. Profit = $1000

Total money made: $2K.... Or, just in case the "," is eur notation: $2,000

Oh, fuck, I said I gave up, I can't even stand by my word now

I give up 

(1/6000*7000)+(1/8000*9000) = $2.29166666667    

edit: this 1 $BTC is misleading.

buy 0.00016666666 bitcoin for $1 at $6000
sell 0.00016666666 bitcoin for $1.16666662 at $7000
buy 0.000125 bitcoin for $1 at $8000
sell 0.000125 bitcoin for 1.125 at $9000

sum: 1.125 + 1.16666662 = 2.29166666667
profit: 2.29166666667 - 2 = 0.29166662

edit2: still wrong I think. here is another try:

buy 0.00016666666 bitcoin for $1 at $6000
sell 0.00014285714 bitcoin for $1 at $7000
buy 0.000125 bitcoin for $1 at $8000
sell 0.00011111111 bitcoin for $1 at $9000

$0 and 0.00003769841 BTC is my final answer. I give up too

FFS guys, do you even trade?

The guy executes two full trades (buy+sell) winning $1000 on each one, so $2K total. What is confusing about this? Why the need to overthink it?

Or does it say you brought 1$ BTC @    etc.

Thanks for the detailed responses !

So we agree on the 10% probabilty (without collusion) !  

It is axiomatic that forecasting price movements is difficult, and its tempting to just give up on the calculations and guess, or say 'nobody knows'.  However, we have to have a stab at it somehow.

We all have our own methods of forecasting. Many posters seem to me to quote some random number for future price, without any indication of how they came up with it. Some post charts, some use a form of (very valid) psycho analysis (JJG being one of the best exponents of that !) delving into the biases and the misconceptions of others. Akin to the Contrarian approach, which has a good track record.

I have had a career and made a living in trading. My stance is this :

Every future price outcome has a probability of some sort.... maybe some sort of bell curve. The regularity of a simple bell curve denies all forecasts. Without a real edge, large numbers of trades can only break-even ,  the market-makers/brokers spread becomes the aggregate loss. It becomes simply a market-makers tool for , say, derivatives pricing.

 If you can break the curve down into groups/blocks, and analyze each one individually from some other, different perspective, you may be able to diminish or enhance the likelihood of one part, which then gives a meaningful edge of sorts.

I think if he originally had $8k, his profit would be 2k
But if he had only $6k, his profit would be 1k
 

Postscript Note:  

Below, I do respond to two of your posts, Majormax.   Your first post pissed me off, somewhat, and maybe that can be gleaned from my response; however, I agreed to a lot of what you are saying (like a kind of clarification post) in the second one.  Go figure?    





I doubt that BTC's supposed "maturity" would be an appropriate explanation for why it would not bounce so far down to $3k so quickly.  We should realize that both BTC is hardly mature, and BTC's price can be pushed with a relatively low quantity of capital.

It seems to me that $3k is just becoming less and less possible based on the difficulties that are being had to get BTC's price below $6k.  After a while the bounce back down to $3k becomes more and more unreasonable as a prediction.




Surely that framework of a 100% return in 15 months is not unreasonable for bitcoin, and even given our current price situation.




Now you are getting into extreme scenarios and presenting them as if they are reasonable.  What kind of odds do you give that BTC will never reach $20k, again?  Pretty low, no?  10% or less for sure, right?  Or are you assigning higher odds than that?  


Who gives a ratt's ass about the limitations of the perspectives back in 2013?  You know that the range of what is possible changes as the actual price performance changes, so BTC's price movement to $20k has made both the psychological perspective change, but also has shown a certain kind of strength in BTC fundamentals  both in terms of security and in terms of the market's willing to go to those kinds of $20k prices (without the world ending).

You are being really overdramatic and overly bearish if you really believe that $20k is ending up as the top of the range for bitcoin.

And, get the fuck out of here with your suggestion that some of the alt coins could take away BTC's price performance potential because they might be better in some ways.   As I type, there is still NOT one coin that is even close to bitcoin in terms of its soundness of money including the seven network effects referred to by Trace Mayer.

I will grant that if another coin comes a long that is better than bitcoin, then the money from bitcoin will likely flow into that better project (including my own money), but that better than bitcoin possibility does not negate that value is most likely to gravitate towards the most sound of the moneys - which currently remains bitcoin.

Do you know of some better sound money than bitcoin?  I will also grant you that it could take 50 years or more for a real and meaningful gravitation towards bitcoin becomes irreversible, but the long time line still does not take away from the fact that bitcoin remains the ONLY real game in town.. and even if the next ATH is delayed another several years, proposing that ATH is NEVER going to happen again amounts to pie in the sky thinking and very reminiscent of 2015/2016 talk in regards to whether the then ATH of $1,163 would ever be breached again (which such 2015/2016 talk of $1,163 never being breached again seems silly, now, but it was very serious talk at that time).



I am not sure whether I should have read ahead before I made my earlier (more pissed off responsive post), and these are very decent points and probability assignments, Majormax... except the I am neither a bull or a bear... comes off as too detached.      

The failure to break past $6610 on that break downwards indicates to me that the bulls are in control.  

I am changing my position and flipping to short term bullish.

Perhaps you have a point?  perhaps?

I am not sure if I would describe some of those perspectives as "critical thinking" but if that is what some of you seemingly bear wanna-bes are attempting to achieve, then fair enough, fair enough.

Actually, I doubt that even amongst the more bullish perspectives we are going to get agreement (so usually echochamber effect does not happen in the real world).  I specifically recall in late 2015, my views of the possible upsurge of BTC prices were becoming more and more conservative compared to several of the then bullish colleague WO observers after getting my portfolio and my psychology beaten up for nearly two years, so surely I can appreciate both the validity of alternative perspectives, and even various theories about why the price is more likely to go in one direction or another and for how far and for how long.

Still, this rally isn’t broken yet.

Why waste time?

I didn't mean 10 seconds later.....