Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 13253. (Read 26731222 times)

Target still $7200 then revisit $5700.

you already know the answer, right?

Bitcoin is the next bitcoin, so why fuck around with that other crap.. except maybe with a small portion of your overall portfolio.. perhaps less than 10% - even though I know some folks want to play with shit with higher quantities of their investment funds because they "get off" on gambling.

Ultimately, I agree that you need to tailorize a strategy that is comfortable for you and attempt to learn from that strategy, and perhaps bitcoin does have some differences from traditional kinds of investments, but my personal approach has been to attempt to employ strategies that are similar to what I had been using in my traditional investing - such as dollar cost averaging; however, some differences that I have found with bitcoin has been the 24/7 access and really various abilities to really make micro-trades with little to no fees that have caused me to develop some additional and what I would characterize as complementary strategies that make dollar cost averaging one of three legs - rather than the previous primary leg.

Sure there are some other strategies too, that carry through, which are things like managing your cash flow so that you are not overinvesting and living within your means, and then just having various targets. 

So yeah, part of the anal aspect of creating targets and plans and revising plans ends up having some kind of decent approximation of your various costs and establishing various means to verify whether your wealth is growing from the strategy including figuring out how much certain actions might be costing you which could also affect short term plans about how to cover some of those extra costs or to roll them into your overall expenses to help to figure out your next moves and set ups and what thresholds are going to trigger the next moves.

One issue that I have with any strategy that attempts to identify tops and bottoms is that it seems to require too much attempt to rely on a large quantity of inference (from missing information) and too much necessity to try to figure out the meaning and weight of various pieces of information including game theory movs of other people that I don't know and who could be motivated by factors way beyond my ability to understand.  Yeah, of course there are macro-tools, too, but I would just rather NOT be attempt to place too much emphasis on attempting to predict price direction as long as I have established a plan for either price direction, then I consider that approach to be way less stressful for myself and just inline with my past practice and what seems to be my personality preferences.

So, my question for you, afbitcoins, includes whether you believe that your system is working for you and are you learning and tweaking your system, and are you really prepared for either up or down?  Perhaps you have learned a bit from some of your prior experiences to just HODL some portion of your coins.. whether it is 25% or some other amount that you believe to be reasonable, but instead it seems that you are inclined to "play" with nearly the whole amount of your stash and attempt to predict price directions?   I do understand that sometimes you can win pretty BIG with that strategy, but still seems really difficult to either predict tops or bottoms or to get anywhere near close to predicting without suffering quite a few opportunity costs by being too much out when you want to be in or too much in when you want to be out .. and in that regard, to me, there just seems to be too much stress that is beyond my own tolerance(s).  How do you deal with all of that?  You get pleasure out of making BIG plays, rather than attempting some form of incrementalism?

lOOKS PRETTY GOOD, dASH STILL BE SCAMMIN THOUGH. damn Capslock!

Through most of 2014, I did NOT say anything about my buying BTC, and surely I was still quite a bit "in the red" at that time; however, I believe it was the second FED auction of silk road coins in about late 2014 and BTC prices were in the upper $300s, and I told a lot of people at that time.  The only person that took a decent BTC stake was my mom... hahahahaha.. everyone else pretty much ignored me or said that they would think about it or that it sounded like a good idea (without acting).  Even my dad said that he thought it was a good idea, but after I hung up the phone with my dad and mom and push came to shove, he backed out, and my mom invested around $2k of her money and about $2k of what should have been his "chickening out" money.

So, after she bought, the price went into the $200s and stayed there for nearly a year, so during that time, she had acquired around 20 coins.  She had cashed out a few times after pressure from my dad to at least get out the principle.  I think that she is down to about 14 or 15 coins.. and she even cashed out around 3 coins in the $14k arena and bought me dad a freshwater fishing boat for a bit more than $30k-ish... hahahahaha... Crazy!!! 

I have not really changed my tune when talking with various other peeps.  I talk about dollar cost averaging, and buying dips.. but even these days, there are quite a few people who just say the same thing.. You did so good.... or your mom did so good, and they act like they are too late.  Frequently, I say that I don't give a shit what they do, yet I can already foresee a future of either $50k coins or $100k coins and they are chasing after coins at that time rather than taking some reasonable strategy before having to chase after the matter.

It's gonna take a while, guys (and gal) for some of this bitcoin information to actually sink into the heads of normal joe peeps.  Like I responded earlier, there may be a lot of people who heard the name bitcoin, but a vast majority of them, perhaps even in the more than 80% territory don't have too much of a clue about what it is exactly..... or they are mislead by disinformation and believe bitcoin to be something other than what it is... That is another crazy!!!!

Bloomberg predicts crypto prices 2019 onward.

“he ate ass, and we got BTFO on our short positions”

I agree with you that when you are selling BTC, you do not want to sell too much.  Of course, if you sell too much then you are going to get rekt because you are going to run out of bitcoins to sell as the price is going up.

So the trick, in my thinking, is to sell as much that you do not give a shit if the price goes back down or not... but if it happens to go back down then you buy back some bitcoin with that money.   Accordingly, I have come to believe that in order to arrive at a comfort level of selling a tiny bit of your BTC stash, then you overinvest a little bit in BTC, so that when the price goes up you don't mind getting rid of some of it.  Of course, you don't leverage or use money that you need to pay monthly expenses such as rent and food, but if you invest a bit extra into BTC, you don't feel bad at all lightening your load a bit as the price is going up while still maintaining a BTC stash that is well within your investment intention and that you really don't intend to sell, except maybe some longer term price thresholds that are in your personally tailored plan.

Surely, the first time we came up passed $3k and then on the way up to $10k and then to $20k, I increased my sell increments, and they got up to $1,000, so my orders were not filling too frequently, but then when the price came back down, so did my buy/sell price increments.

My current practice is that the increments are pretty close together (there is some variance but around $250), however if the price reverses, we can get into a kind of lala land for my orders not filling because even though approximately every $250 might cause another sell to to execute, it may take around $700 reversal for one of my buy orders to execute.. or we can get caught in the $700 range in which no orders are being filled.

I kind of play around with what is comfortable for me, and if I manually make some kind of extra buy or sell, then I might tweak around the positioning of the orders, too.

For me, I feel that it is plenty of work, even with the orders not filling very often, and I am saving some of my energies for when the price goes shooting in one direction or another, then the orders begin to fill like crazy, and as you know sometimes it can be very time consuming to keep up, even if your orders are decently spread out.

What is that quantity of value that you would want to accumulate in current dollars?

If we use traditional assumptions that you can afford to withdraw 4% per year from traditionally invested funds without largely losing the principle.  That is considered to be a kind of maintenance withdrawal of value to preserve the principle (a kind of withdrawal of interest ONLY thinking).

With that framework, for every $1million dollars, you can expect to garner a withdrawal rate of approximately $3,333 per month (that is ($1million * .04) / 12).  Then the question becomes how many million dollars do you need to feel comfortable?  For myself, I figure approximately $2.5 million would allow for a decent income that would mostly allow me to continue my current standard of living plus a little bit of cushion.... and actually it would be a bit more than I am used to because I no longer would have to worry about pulling out money for savings/investment because I already arrived at a maintenance stage, rather than an accumulation stage... furthermore, I would become more geographically mobile which could cause for a lot of potential savings because I would no longer have to live in one particular area to maintain a JOB.

Anyhow, with about $2.5 million of principle, the income would be approximately $10k $8,333 per month (that is 2.5 x $3,333).  So that income would largely be considered to be passive income.. and seems reasonable based on a principle of $2.5 million, no?

Of course, depending on what part of the world you live, and your own expectations concerning the lifestyle that you would like to live, there can be considerable variance in how much you feel is reasonable necessary (or preferred) and how much cushion you feel that you need to have, too.  

Let's just say that if your quantity of fiat value for your bitcoins had gone up to $2.5million (that's around 125 bitcoins) when bitcoin went up to $20k,  but then the value of your bitcoins would only be worth $875,000 today with the price at $7k.. so it is almost as if you would have to consider the lower end of possible BTC price movements in order to feel comfortable leaving your wealth in bitcoin.  Let's say that you want to maintain at least $2.5 million in fiat value, but you are actually o.k. if the BTC price were to go down to $2million, then you would have needed to maintain 333 Bitcoins when the BTC price sunk down to $6k in order to maintain at least $2million of value in bitcoins.  

I still kind of think that in the future, anything approaching 100 bitcoins should be more than enough to maintain about a $2.5 million dollar value, but then I suppose I am presuming a kind of bitcoin price floor at $25k - even if from time to time the BTC price might have periods of dipping below $25k.

I understand that there are HODLers who are contemplating much smaller BTC holdings - even in the 21 bitcoins territory, but perhaps those folks are kind of expecting a $100k BTC floor prices... which also might not be unreasonable for a longer-term thinking about where BTC has decent chances of going.. and especially if you have a bit more time in your investment horizon and your cashing out (living on passive income) plan.

Edited the passive income numbers due to my earlier miscalculations, and added some clarification here and there.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.44976436

What happened? Why the volume of trading grew 10 times and price in 50%?

Nice additions - particularly giving Bill the Bard a mention, but I can't enjoy reading Trilema - and I have really tried... His slut shaming Dom stuff is weirdly dubious and some of the rest is (while no doubt intelligent and incredibly erudite) pretty unintelligible and often deeply cynical to me.  I dip in sometimes still, but I am not sure I ever learn much.

EDIT: Spelling

Just catching up on a week's worth of WO after heading off for a little fly fishing.

Respect for a great reading list, although Bulgakov would go to no. 1, and I might rate a different Hemmingway.

So some people here are well-read after all.  (Both of you) rise even further in my estimations.

(Merited) keep lifting the tone, eh?

the next 24 years are critical

I only need to know a couple of things about future btc status:

1. what is its price by the second half of 2021 (June-Dec)?
2. what is its price by December 2023?

re #1 my hope is $100K and the world is largely intact
re #2 my hope for btc is $200K (after a sharp correction in 2022) and same as above for the world as a whole.

Bitcoin take on South park.
https://twitter.com/Xentagz/status/1035211520525918208

"He got rekt in this bear market and moved to Thailand!?"

We all know who they are talking about.

I love how people praise shitcoins all like "its the better, newer bitcoin" but when BTC drops, the shitcoins drop too. Don't get me wrong, I like making money from shitcoins when BTC goes up, so do they but, cmon.... Are we ever going to see a BTC 2.0?

meme king)

I'm not disciplined enough to know my average cost, would be intresting to know though. First time I bought bitcoin was coming down from its MtGox $32 dollar all time high and I was in the red for ages afterwards because it kept going all the way down to $2. However I lost my entire first stash in the bitcoinica hack. Last time I bought was in the $250 range. I sold off a bunch too early though still at extremely good profit. I don't think the strategy of buying all the way down and selling all the way up works for me. I like to try and time bottoms to accumulate then mostly hodl, if I can i will try to diversify on tops. That might mean only a few trades in a few years. Banking problems hindered me on the last top. Its a constant learning experience.