I am comfortable with the idea of us hitting $200k on the next spike.
Let's say that there are graduations in predictions that are more conservative and more adventurous.
Maybe we can put the bears and shorters aside, just for the moment, and consider the bitcoin bull cases.
1) We already know that there are bitcoin bullish folks who are so timid and have so little confidence in bitcoin, that there are going to be variations of them dumping all the way up to $19k and without even confidence that bitcoin will reach $19k again. Surely, those can still end up being short term profitable positions to take, because we don't know how long it is going to break through all the resistances from here to $19k, but likely once we get above the $16,500 arena, there is going to be decent likelihood of breaking above $20k soon thereafter.. but even a month or more could seem like a lifetime to the bitcoin tepid.
2) Probably the second category of folks are really o.k with a kind of 25% to 100% beyond the previous ATH - but to me that territory really seems unrealistic in terms of sell territory... and seems like a lot of those folks are going to be wrong because bitcoin has a very great at least a 2x passed the previous ATH.. so seems a bit imprudent to be cashing out at least 2x passed the previous ATH.
3) Here's where it becomes more dicey because of the seeming reasonableness of it, and that is anywhere in the 2x to 5x territory. Surely it is going to seem reasonable to be cashing out decently in this $40k to $100k territory, and surely it seems plausible that we are going to be getting decent resistance in the $100k territory - however, I might be a bit with you, Hairy, that if BTC gets such momentum that it is able to get into a close to $100k range, then breaking through $100k might make $200k relatively easy, and therefore a reasonable expectation... Alright, you kind of talked me into $200k as being almost more reasonable than $100k, because once we get to $100k, gosh there is surely likely to be momentum and FOMO that is quite difficult to contain, even when there are a lot of folks who want to cash out, the ones wanting "in" then become quite likely to out number the ones wanting "out"