Funny how either scenario could still reasonably play out (that is 1) early 2013 scenario or 2) late 2013 scenario).
Honestly, not even my sophisticated SOMA prediction engine has helped me any in figuring this one out.
Like most of us - and you in particular - I'm just trying to set myself up to fall on my feet in both cases of up and down. Sideways would require no special preparation, at least in my case.
I retain a certain level of confidence that anyone who has accumulated a decent amount of BTC - let's say over a year ago, so their BTC buy average is less than $3k should feel a bit of comfort and confidence from this current consolidation situation - even if circumstances cause further BTC price dipping below $5k, for instance.... but yeah, if BTC prices were to dip below $5k, then follows a certain increased lack of confidence that causes additional price droppings to become more probable, then people become more worried and then more likely to do the wrong thing, which is selling on the way down, rather than buying on the way down.
Largely, it seems to be the same principle, even if your average cost per BTC is more than $10k, you just remain a bit more nervous that you are "in the red" so you have less ability to just shave off a bit of BTC here and there and still be "in the profits." Whenever my BTC portfolio was in the red, if I ever happen to spend BTC, then I would always replace those BTC soon after spending them (and even with a bit more), so any funding sources and emergency funds had to be taken from other (non BTC) sources, which is not the case, as long as you are in profits.
When we are in a seemingly extended consolidation period, like this, it seems that we can consider whether we want to increase or to decrease the increments of our trading. Even though it takes a bit of time, I suppose that I am a bit greedy, because in the past 6 months, I have been decreasing my trading increments in order that the trades trigger more frequently.. but for anyone who would rather not be trading so much or thinking about BTC, they could just re-think their whole approach and really increase their trading increments and end up NOT being bothered with trading between $5k and $12k, for example.. in other words, their next trades would be trigger below or above those prices, and otherwise they are just in a HODL... which could take a decent amount of time to play out (even 3 years.. .hahahahaha).
Maybe that is how a bull slowly transforms into a bear, or goes roach, or BJA?
or turns into something totally different.. .like a bulldog?
When the world realizes it's the joos, bitcoin will go to zero because a permissionless digital token can't even exist. Silver will be the only thing guaranteed to keep its value. Woof, woof!
Ahahahahaha.,....... Looks like an admission to me.
More like an exercise of style ;-)
Style, yes.
Yes, it could take another 3 months to play out to see if one view is more correct than another, or it could take another 3 years.. holy fuck.. hoping that it will not take another 3 years, but it is not an unreasonable (even though seemingly less probable) BTC price dynamic playing out.
I sure hope it's not going to be 3 years. Honestly, I doubt it will, but what do we know?
Odds seem against three years, and odds seem against 3 months, too, but seems that each are within a similar probabilities range.
So rally and make us happy 
